Significant savings on "last minute" (>90 days to sailing) bookings?

[halloweengirl]

Hi All,

Has any had a direct experience with saving a big chunk of change/being able to upgrade at a much lower price by waiting until just a month or two before your desired trip to book the cruise? I'm looking at a late January to Mexico on the Oosterdam, and we're trying to hold out for the best deal. We're particularly interested in being able to get a steal on a verandah, as we're bringing our soon-to-be 10 yr old nephew to celebrate both his and my birthdays in late January. We're thinking maybe book the cruise just after Thanksgiving (then book the flights, hotel in San Diego, etc.)....is this too early or too late? Obviously we can't predict the future, but we CAN predict patterns. Thanks in advance! :)

-HG

[RuthC]

Picking the date of the lowest price of a cruise is strictly a matter of luck.
However, it is also true that frequently there are cabins offered at a lower price right after final payment. So, determine the final payment date for the cruise you're interested in, then look for a cabin starting the next day.
Sometimes it works. Sometimes it doesn't.

Of course, by then you have a poorer selection of cabins. And airfare might be higher.

[Hawaiidan]

Times were when you could hold out for a cruise and maybe book it a few weeks in advance and get a super deal......
Well the cruise lines dont like that and want to have long term funds and assurances that the ship will fill. Last year I observed that the closer the you got to sailing the more the price went up... It is in the management s best interests to give, in todays market, the best discount to the first hogs to the trough.... and to reverse the trend of fare slashing at the last minute. They are taking a page from the airline fare rules Buy 30 days out for say 350... but at 14 days its 700, and 7 days its 1200. These are observed prices in the airlines.... Cruise lines are catching on. Another reason to buy sooner is that the prime cabins are the one s to go first... and I dont just mean the sutes But the super large inside economy ones. Supply and demand is the rule:cool:
For example I have locked in a cruise and a cabin for next October. I did so 4 months ago because there were only 4 cabins of the type and location left that I wanted...

[VermeulT]

WHile I agree to some degree with Hawaiidan - currently October and still November cruises are all but being given away.

But consider like RuthC said - cabin choice will be slim (or you might be forced to take a guarantee), and airfare costs might outweight the savings on the cabin.....

[jhannah]

Of course, by then you have a poorer selection of cabins. And airfare might be higher. The last-minute airfare will generally kill off any savings on your cabin. I purchased airfare to Florida as soon as flights were opened online. Today, the airfare is more than double what I paid. (For flights in early December.)

[Aussiemick]

For whatever it is worth, I booked a December Mexican Riveria cruise in June after getting quotes from 4 agents at an online site. The price was several hundred dollars less than the HAL site or quotes from online agencies. I have been following the price closely and just before final payment the HAL site went down to what I paid and right now it is $100 less than I paid but it is only good for new bookings. Just be sure when you are making comparisons that all taxes and fees are included in the quote.

[GmaPajama]

Just once, ever, have we booked a last minute cruise - about a week after final payment date. It's not a cruise we were looking for, but just something that popped up at a price that was almost ridiculous. We've yet to take that cruise, and I'm dying to see what cabin we get and how different our experience might be. It's our first non-suite cruise ... so I know that part will be different ... but I see no reason everything else won't be as wonderful as our other cruises.

What DID happen though, with that last minute sale price, is that we booked an additional cruise. One that we had not even thought about. So even though it was an incredible bargain, HAL did get more cash from us this year. :)

I would not risk that process on a cruise we really want to do - but it was great for a last minute extra.

[StartrainDD]

If you're willing to gamble just a little, (and after we paid too much by booking too early for our upcoming cruise...), I would wait to book the cruise provided you are not very picky about cabin location. You are about right on timing, the week before or Thanksgiving week is what I would look at for an end of January cruise.

In fact, we may look at the same week from Florida and that is my plan.

Coming from Denver, you can even buy your SOUTHWEST air tickets now to lock in the airfare. Worst case, and you don't cruise or go a different week, with SW (and only SW) you can cancel and use the funds towards other flights up to a year from original purchase date.

Hope this helps!

[Route6A]

With the downturn in the economy, I am rethinking my approach to booking cruises for our family. The next one we are taking had significant drops in pricing after the final payment (Celebrity). When I contacted my TA, she managed to get us a small OBC, but it did not compare with the sigificant savings we could have made had we booked later in a smaller suite, which would have been fine Later on, we were upgraded to a larger suite, gratis, but I would prefer to have booked for less. One suite category was $2,000 less per person after final payment. Savings were also significant on regular staterooms.

I am waiting to book a winter Caribbean cruise until after final payment dates, but I am willing to book on a number of lines, including HAL, which we sail frequently. If you want a specific cruise line and stateroom, booking early will ensure you get it. Good luck whatever you decide to do.

[Cruizer Bill]

I've had it go both ways, down and up leading up to cruise time. The last HAL cruise we were on - the Volendam sailing out of Sydney - the price kept going up. Apparently, booking were coming in faster than usual and HAL could see the ship was going to fill up. They raised their prices and got what they wanted. On our Celebrity Galaxy cruise, they had to lower their prices at final payment time to fill the ship.

It all depends on how quickly the cabins are filling. If you can find a cruise that is hard to fill, the price will go down and you will be rewarded for taking a guaranteed room. On popular cruises, they price will hold up or even go up and you will get a very poor cabin if you chose the "Guaranteed" option.

[Acklander]

We've always gotten great deals by waiting until after final payment - however we currently live in FLA so we're able to drive to the port and not have to deal with airfare. We've never looked at it from the perspective of wanting to book a specific cruise and cabin type; but instead around 60-90 days before going I will check and see what cruises are available for what price and then make my decision. So, instead of my picking a cruise, the cruise picks me. This works for us, but we fairly easy going , go with the flow type people.

[DeirdreTours]

So, instead of my picking a cruise, the cruise picks me. This works for us, but we fairly easy going , go with the flow type people.

That is clever approach and a good way of explaining it!

[kyriecat]

It seems that how well a cruise is selling plays a big role in how it is priced. I've never done the Mexican cruises. On my last 2 cruises, the best deals were actually 6-9 months before sail date. Both times I was able to get my fare reduced to the new amount. Both cruises ended up selling out so the prices showing after final payment were higher than when I had originally booked. Anyone gambling on those cruises would have lost (really big on one!).

I have a cruise booked for April. The price on it dropped a couple days ago so I got a fare reduction. I've checked the deck plans and there are still many open cabins, including suites. It may have another price drop before final payment or it might stay at the current price until after final payment then drop to entire last minute bookings. I'll be watching.

[HamOp]

Times were when you could hold out for a cruise and maybe book it a few weeks in advance and get a super deal......
Well the cruise lines dont like that and want to have long term funds and assurances that the ship will fill. Last year I observed that the closer the you got to sailing the more the price went up... It is in the management s best interests to give, in todays market, the best discount to the first hogs to the trough.... and to reverse the trend of fare slashing at the last minute. They are taking a page from the airline fare rules Buy 30 days out for say 350... but at 14 days its 700, and 7 days its 1200. These are observed prices in the airlines.... Cruise lines are catching on. Another reason to buy sooner is that the prime cabins are the one s to go first... and I dont just mean the sutes But the super large inside economy ones. Supply and demand is the rule:cool:
For example I have locked in a cruise and a cabin for next October. I did so 4 months ago because there were only 4 cabins of the type and location left that I wanted...

The airline makes most of it's money by selling seats. The cost to move the airplane from point A to point B is about the same full or empty. On the other hand, the cruise ship makes most of it's money from onboard purchases and shore trip bookings. The ship wants to sail full at all costs.
I don't see how the cruise lines can mirror the airline pricing plan.

[serendipity1499]

Times were when you could hold out for a cruise and maybe book it a few weeks in advance and get a super deal......
Well the cruise lines dont like that and want to have long term funds and assurances that the ship will fill. Last year I observed that the closer the you got to sailing the more the price went up... It is in the management s best interests to give, in todays market, the best discount to the first hogs to the trough.... and to reverse the trend of fare slashing at the last minute. They are taking a page from the airline fare rules Buy 30 days out for say 350... but at 14 days its 700, and 7 days its 1200. These are observed prices in the airlines.... Cruise lines are catching on. Another reason to buy sooner is that the prime cabins are the one s to go first... and I dont just mean the sutes But the super large inside economy ones. Supply and demand is the rule:cool:
For example I have locked in a cruise and a cabin for next October. I did so 4 months ago because there were only 4 cabins of the type and location left that I wanted...

Years ago you had to make a booking a year in advance in order to get the cabin you want..Not so in this economy..We always cruise during Thanksgiving week & we are doing so on the Noordam B2B (20 days) again this year..Our cruise has come down over 14 1/2 % for our Outside cabins since we booked last Feb. & just two days ago we were able to make reservations for our Friends to cruise with us on the 10 day portion, over Thanksgiving..Also got them a SUPER deal in a veranda cabin..There are many available outside & veranda cabins on our Cruise..So don't be surprised if your cabin price comes down close to final payment, especially if the Economy is still the same..This week we were even able to change our cabin to one which was not available when we originally booked in Feb.

The airline makes most of it's money by selling seats. The cost to move the airplane from point A to point B is about the same full or empty. On the other hand, the cruise ship makes most of it's money from onboard purchases and shore trip bookings. The ship wants to sail full at all costs.
I don't see how the cruise lines can mirror the airline pricing plan.

Completely agree with you....Cruise Line's actually make their profit on on-board spending not cabins...This was confirmed on a travel program aboard a NCL ship last year & also by Phillip217, a Cruise Line Officer, who has been on 27 ships & has nearly had 1400 cruises in his career..Following is a partial Quote of one of his Post No. 57 in the following thread:

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=956159

Quote: The average breakdown on REVENUES on a cruise ship, largest to smallest are:
1. Passage
2. Art (until the recent financial downturn)
3. Shorex
4. Boutiques
5. Bars
6. Spa
7. Casino
8. Photos
Over the past year, Art has dropped to around #7 on REVENUE

The average breakdown on PROFITS on a cruise ship, largest to smallest are:
1. Art (until the recent financial downturn)
2. Bars
3. Boutiques
4. Spa
5. Casino
6. Shorex
7. Photos
8. Passage

Over the past year Art has dropped to around #5 or #6 on PROFIT. Unquote

Cheers....:)Betty

[Jsipes]

We have sailed on the OOsterdam several times out of San Diego. Every cruise there has been entire hallways of empty cabins. You will have no problem waiting till the last minute to get tickets. That ship has a lot of cabins, and I have never seen it full, even in a military town like San Diego, which is a city with good economy. I believe it would be safe to purchase your plane ticket 5 months in advance, then purchase your cruis 20 days before sailing. I have done that three times, and have never been burned. Of course, it is a risk. But you can save at least a thousand or two thousand dollars !! I would no try that on the Ryndam or a smaller ship, but the Noordam, Veendam, OOsterdam....no problamo. You could buy a ticket 2 days before sailing with no problem, as long as you are willing to take what is available.

[cruisecrasy]

Completely agree with you....Cruise Line's actually make their profit on on-board spending not cabins...This was confirmed on a travel program aboard a NCL ship last year & also by Phillip217, a Cruise Line Officer, who has been on 27 ships & has nearly had 1400 cruises in his career..Following is a partial Quote of one of his Post No. 57 in the following thread:

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=956159

Quote: The average breakdown on REVENUES on a cruise ship, largest to smallest are:
1. Passage
2. Art (until the recent financial downturn)
3. Shorex
4. Boutiques
5. Bars
6. Spa
7. Casino
8. Photos
Over the past year, Art has dropped to around #7 on REVENUE

The average breakdown on PROFITS on a cruise ship, largest to smallest are:
1. Art (until the recent financial downturn)
2. Bars
3. Boutiques
4. Spa
5. Casino
6. Shorex
7. Photos
8. Passage

Over the past year Art has dropped to around #5 or #6 on PROFIT. Unquote

Cheers....:)Betty[/QUOTE]

Very interesting - many thanks for posting!!

[debsjc]

Could someone remind me how long before the sailing date is final payment date, just wondering at what stage prices are likely to go down.

[Nasmas]

I think final payment is about 45 days out. We booked a cruise about 2 weeks ago for an October 23 cruise. The prices were good, but two or three days later, the price went up. They are still high except maybe the inside cabins. But, like someone said earlier, our air fare is pretty steep. I think maybe there is something going on in Ft. Lauderdale that weekend. If we had gone a week earlier or a week later, we could have saved money on the air, but we couldn't work it out to cruise then. So, we just ate it. So, I think you might not want to wait until 30 days out because the cruise rates will probably go back up. I've not really found any deals booking early. Plus, you have to wait so long for your cruise.

[RuthC]

Could someone remind me how long before the sailing date is final payment date,
I can never keep it straight if final payment is at 75, or 90 days before sailing.
I wonder if final payment date changes, based on the length of the cruise? I'm sure I've had both dates, and in recent bookings, too.

[kyriecat]

From HAL's website:
Final payment is generally due no later than 75 days prior to departure although some cruises have different final payment date requirements. I think the grand voyages and longer sailings have payments that are due 90 days before sail date. Someday I'll be able to take a cruise longer than 2-weeks and find out.

[jhannah]

Yes. I believe normal sailings are 75 days. Grand/World voyages are 90 days.

[halloweengirl]

Thanks to all reply-givers, this info is very helpful! Yeah, I definitely think we'll book the plane tix sooner rather than later (and thanks to the person recommending SW--we are pretty Frontier loyal, but since this is a luggage-needed trip, there are 3 of us, and we need a cheap price, we might end up with them due to the significant savings)

[Hawaiidan]

I think one factor is the ports and the route the ship is taking
My direct experience has been that I booked a cruise in May 2010 for October 2011 and there were only 2 cabins left of the type I want 17 months out for the med to Ft. Lauderdale. ( 29 days and an outstanding combo of perfect ports and sequence and time of year)

Moreover, I observed that a cabin I booked in August is now selling at $150 more than I paid despite Holland America cutting the very lowest catagorie by a $100. Everything else ,however, went up big time on the same sailing!!
I saw this too in Alaska last September... Market has a considerable effect. As does capacity.

Maybe the thought is to chop the really crummy cabins and up sell their ouccipants to the vastly, ( now) more expensive cabins.
In the case of the Warzone known as Mexico... I can see why they would have a harder time attracting people to sail there!