Cancel your Eastern Mediterranean cruise?

[HappyInVan]

Looks like people power has finally arrived in North Africa. Change is also coming to Egypt. The ruling party's offices and the main police station has been burnt down.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12316465


IMO, there will be a period of uncertain transition from totalitarian regimes. No one knows how it will go. No one can know how it will affect the Israeli-Palestinian problem. On the other hand, Turkey is solid.

Any expert opinions? It might be worth while to pay attention to the news.

[sail7seas]

Way too early to even guess what will be three or more months from now. We can be certain HAL and all cruise lines and travel providers will be carefully monitoring all events.

They will not put crews, guests or ships at risk.

[kazu]

Way too soon and even if a port or two is changed...there will be other interesting ones substituted. i wouldn't cancel anything yet. and even if a port or two is changed, unless you don't like the rest of your itinerary, i wouldn't cancel. and North Africa is on our horizon too :D

[SwissMyst]

We have one in November- too early to think about cancelling right now and will respect any final decisions and advisements from cruise line as well

(Voyages to Antiquity - Cyprus to Cairo via Turkey, Lebanon, Suez and Jordan, overnights in Syria and Jordan)

[Cruising-along]

Ours is coming up in October, no thought at all of cancelling. If our Egypt stop is cancelled, there are enough other interesting ports on that cruise to make it worth going.

Also, we'll be traveling with my sister and BIL, there are lots of other plans that would have to be changed as well if we cancelled. Still planning on taking the cruise, the land trip pre-cruise, the whole thing. :)

[Krazy Kruizers]

Just watch the news as it is too soon to determine what will happen in the coming weeks. Still lots of time before HAL starts their eastern Med cruises.

If problems continue -- then itineraries will be adjusted.

[Padraic]

We are scheduled to board the Amsterdam in Dubai in March for the last leg of the World Cruise. That's quite a bit away and our stops in Egypt won't be until the first of April. Missing any of the ports in Oman, Jordan and Egypt would be disappointing to say the least. Not being able to transit the Suez Canal for some reason would of course screw up the entire cruise. Somewhat difficult to get to the Med without going through the Suez Canal. We're waiting to see what happens.

[LAFFNVEGAS]

I agree it is just too soon to really know especially for those that have late summer / early Fall sailings. I too am booked to go to Egypt-Eastern Med. but not till November 2012 which is a very long way off. I am just going to sit tight and watch what unfolds. Who knows there could be a whole new country there by then :eek:

[Taxguy77]

We are scheduled to board the Amsterdam in Dubai in March for the last leg of the World Cruise. That's quite a bit away and our stops in Egypt won't be until the first of April. Missing any of the ports in Oman, Jordan and Egypt would be disappointing to say the least. Not being able to transit the Suez Canal for some reason would of course screw up the entire cruise. Somewhat difficult to get to the Med without going through the Suez Canal. We're waiting to see what happens.

Hopefully things will go as planned, but be open-minded and ready for any change. The Suez Canal has been, is now, and will remain vulnerable to political pressures North Americans will never understand.
And some we do, but can do nothing about.

[Taxguy77]

I agree it is just too soon to really know especially for those that have late summer / early Fall sailings. I too am booked to go to Egypt-Eastern Med. but not till November 2012 which is a very long way off. I am just going to sit tight and watch what unfolds. Who knows there could be a whole new country there by then :eek:

One more cruise before December, 2012, eh?
( For anyone who does not know, the Mayan Calendar ends in Dec. 2012.)

[SwissMyst]

We are scheduled to board the Amsterdam in Dubai in March for the last leg of the World Cruise. That's quite a bit away and our stops in Egypt won't be until the first of April. Missing any of the ports in Oman, Jordan and Egypt would be disappointing to say the least. Not being able to transit the Suez Canal for some reason would of course screw up the entire cruise. Somewhat difficult to get to the Med without going through the Suez Canal. We're waiting to see what happens.

I could be proven wrong in an instant, but my guess right now is this political disruption will be confined more to Cairo and Alexandria than Suez or Sinai. I think Nile River cruises might not be affected or trips on up to Abu Simbul, if one can still get in and out of the Cairo airport, which is quite a ways out of downtown.

Some extra days in Aqaba, Petra and the rest of Jordan would be very welcome. Oman is pretty serene - why not, it is very wealthy. One can also add other UAE stops like Abu Dhabi or Qatar. Jordan runs a tight ship and is a fairly stable place too, though it has its long simmering Palestinian refugee problems.

Who knows, maybe even Saudi Arabia will open its doors just a tiny crack to pick up the Middle Eastern tourism slack. Only time will tell, but these are my own instincts from having traveled in this area. When an uprising comes from the military and middle class there is more hope for reform than for destruction.

A tidy little military coup, ouster of the present government, martial law for a bit, the educated middle class forming an alternative government and a new, more modern era emerging in the Middle East. (Not willing to put money on this, but it is a workable scenario)

[cruisemom42]

I could be proven wrong in an instant, but my guess right now is this political disruption will be confined more to Cairo and Alexandria than Suez or Sinai. I think Nile River cruises might not be affected or trips on up to Abu Simbul, if one can still get in and out of the Cairo airport, which is quite a ways out of downtown.

Jordan runs a tight ship and is a fairly stable place too, though it has its long simmering Palestinian refugee problems.




Unfortunately, there is already protesting/rioting along the Suez canal; in fact, alongside Cairo and Alexandria it's one of the hotter spots. Five people have been reported killed in Ismailia (about the mid-point on the canal and where one pilot gets off and another gets on). There have also been major protests in Suez (the city) and Port Said (the entrance to the canal from the Mediterranean side).

Also, protests in Jordan have been ongoing for the last couple of days, albeit not as strong as the ones in Egypt: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/29/world/middleeast/29region.html

[SwissMyst]

Unfortunately, there is already protesting/rioting along the Suez canal; in fact, alongside Cairo and Alexandria it's one of the hotter spots. Five people have been reported killed in Ismailia (about the mid-point on the canal and where one pilot gets off and another gets on). There have also been major protests in Suez (the city) and Port Said (the entrance to the canal from the Mediterranean side).

Also, protests in Jordan have been ongoing for the last couple of days, albeit not as strong as the ones in Egypt: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/29/world/middleeast/29region.html

Gulp, looks like my instant of certainty just got used up. Thanks for the report. Yes, certainly the canal is their international weak spot for power leverage.

[HappyInVan]

Gulp, looks like my instant of certainty just got used up. Thanks for the report. Yes, certainly the canal is their international weak spot for power leverage.


I'm not trying to spoil your trip. I'm trying to give you a heads up. I'm the guy who made the first post about the Mazatlan AK-47 incident. Then, the cruise lines started pulling out.


The situation for the ordinary people in these regimes is bad and getting worse. The regimes have been keeping the lid on the unrest. But, the boiler is now coming apart at the seams.


It's going to be messy, because these regimes have done their best to cripple civil society. Without a civil society, it is problematic to run a democracy. Who is there to lead a consensus society? Don't forget that REVENGE is a point of honour in that part of the world.


In South Africa, there was Nelson Mandala and a black political party heavily influenced by western traditions. There were many influential whites who supported the end of apartheid, and had influence with the black leadership. There was a DEAL with the whites.


In Egypt, there has been no tradition of democratic governance. The best organized opposition group is the Muslim Brotherhood. Can't see how the Egyptian establishment and military will be able to make a deal with the Muslim Brotherhood.


There are wider implications for the region. The terrorists have always been the extreme alternative to peace. So, they will thrive in any disorder.


Angry protesters are merely a threat to your itinerary. The terrorists are a physical threat because they target victims for assassination, bombing and kidnapping.


The rioters only operate in their home country. Terrorists can strike anywhere, including cities where you embark and disembark the ship.


IMO, the biggest risk in spring will be that of disruption. After that, anything is possible.


So, be aware, be flexible and keep safe.

[Himself]

I do not think HAL or any other cruise line will take ships where passengers or crew would be put in danger. As for the Egptian crisis, I think it is too early to tell. We do live in a very volitile world.

[sail7seas]

The area of the pryramids has been closed to all tourism.

[SwissMyst]

it is fascinating to get direct reports from news services in Israel and the Middle East, like Al Jazeera to get different perspectives. There are reports of looting by young people in some of the outlying cities, but not necessarily insurrection according to these more local sources. The feeling is the Egyptian military will be key to how this goes --good and/or bad. Will the support the large scale political protests and be temporary caretakers. or crackdown support the status quo and make things worse. According to Israeli intelligence services, the role of the Muslim Brotherhood remains murky and disorganized at this time.

[pris993]

We are also watching this situation, we are booked on the Rotterdam in October. So it is a long ways off, final payment is not due til August.

We booked the cruise because of the 3 days in Isarel because we have done this itinerary 2 times before once on Princess and once on Celebrity. Egypt is not that important to us as a result.

I am sure the cruise lines will do what is best, so that is not a concern. We were on Crystal years ago and a similar situation broke out in Egypt with attacks on tourists, so Crystal pulled out of Egypt and we went to Istanbul instead.

This time though the economics are not good all over the world, there has been unrest in Greece and Turkey, so not sure what the cruise lines will do. I guess we will all have to wait and see what happens.

If the line dropped Egypt and added time in Israel we would love it. Assuming it remains safe in Israel, we can only hope and pray.

[serendipity1499]

One more cruise before December, 2012, eh?
( For anyone who does not know, the Mayan Calendar ends in Dec. 2012.)

Oh my..We were just talking about that today, as our Friends Birthday is Dec. 22 & the calendar ends on Dec 21, when the world is supposed to end..:eek::eek:

Ever wonder if any of us will be left & should we start getting our affairs in order?

LOL

Cheers...Betty

[whogo]

Egypt's moderate, secular strongman will be replaced by a fundamentalist strongman.

[DRWhit]

I hope I am wrong, but this thing could keep on rolling throughout the Mid East, making the whole place a lot more volatile than it has been for quite a while.

Definitely just something we are going to have to watch to see how it unfolds. I hope it unfolds for the best, but I suspect otherwise.

[serendipity1499]

Oh my..We were just talking about that today, as our Friends Birthday is Dec. 22 & the calendar ends on Dec 21, when the world is supposed to end..:eek::eek:

Ever wonder if any of us will be left & should we start getting our affairs in order?

LOL

Cheers...Betty

:o:o:o Just re-read my post & realize it was not appropriate for this thread..

Didn't mean to make light of the situation in Egypt & the rest of the Middle East..

Have a Friend who worked with me & married an Egyptian Dr..He is such a wonderful man & has been so good to my Friend & her Handicapped child..

They've been married for over 30 years & all go to Egypt every year...His entire family, including his Parents are still near Cairo..I've been thinking about them all day, as the last time she e-mailed me, she said they were thinking of purchasing an apartment in Cairo to use when they go to Egypt..I feel so sorry for them, as they must be very worried..

It's so sad to see what's going on in so many areas of the World..

I hope that things will settle down soon & know that HAL will make the right decisions to protect, Psgrs., Crew & their ships..

Stay safe everyone..

Betty

[Hlitner]

The situation in Egypt is not too surprising. We spent a few weeks in Egypt about 3 years ago (loved every moment) and some interesting discussions with some Egyptians. The short version of what we were told (by many people) is that President Mubarak thinks he is a King and the Egyptians do not want a King. Many also told us they were aware that Mubarak intended his son to take his place and nobody liked or respected this son. In Egypt the countries control seems to come from the Army so we suspect that whoever gets the Army support will be the next "King." My personal hunch is that the situation will be resolved (and stablized) within a few weeks....but we are not always correct.

Hank

[chloes nana]

and another thing just to keep in mind, the elections are after the Holy Days in September, which could cause another uprising or backlash... you never know what will happen. We were booked on a Nile river cruise in September right after the Holy Days and decided to cancel this year, and have a wait and see attitude to the whole situation unfolding in the Middle East, as far as I am concerned the whole area is a little too unstable for tourism right now.
We decided on Amsterdam to Budapest instead.;)

[C'estsibon]

Dear Happy I would cancel and rebook another cruise in a heart beat.

On our cruise in September 2010, we took the Alexandria/Cairo excursions. The trip was wonderful with a visit to the Museum, Nile River, and the Pyramid. At that time, we had police escort for part of the way. So you can well imagine the unrest at that time was nothing compared to what is happening now.
I would not like to venture into Alexandra or Cairo at all until the political situation has been addressed and settled. I guess you should try and find another cruise away from the trouble area.
So, in my opinion, any cruise this year going to Alexandra/Cairo would not be for me. I trust the cruise line would cancel. Unfortunately, this may be the itinerary you wanted.
And I truly believe that this unrest is for the long haul

[pris993]

Egypt's moderate, secular strongman will be replaced by a fundamentalist strongman.

I pray this does not happen, do not think it would be in the best interest of the Eygptian people or the world for that matter. No one wants to see another Iran except maybe the fundamentalists.

[HappyInVan]

News that thousands of convicts have escaped from prison. That includes religious militants. Some of whom were responsible for the attacks that killed tourists several years ago.


ARMED GANGS ATTACK EGYPT JAILS, FREE MILITANTS
With Police Absent and Army in the Streets, Nation Is at Tipping Point on Sixth Day of Unrest


(AP) CAIRO - Gangs of armed men attacked at least four jails across Egypt before dawn Sunday, helping to free hundreds of Muslim militants and thousands of other inmates as police vanished from the streets of Cairo and other cities.


The U.S. Embassy in Cairo told its citizens in Egypt to consider leaving the country as soon as possible, and said it had authorized the voluntary departure of dependents and non-emergency employees, a display of Washington's escalating concern about the stability of its closest Arab ally.


The army sent hundreds more troops and armored vehicles onto the streets of Cairo and other cities but appeared to be taking little action against gangs of young men with guns and large sticks who were smashing cars and robbing people.


At least one Nile-side shopping mall in Cairo was on fire after being looted the previous day.




Th western media announced that 'Opposition Rallies to El Baradei'. The Muslim Brotherhood may be willing to allow Baradei to negotiate Mubarak's exit. But, what's happens after?


Baradei is a technocrat without a power base, and no political experience. The Muslim Brotherhood has the numbers, the grassroots organization, the ideology and cohesion.

[Arwen]

October 2011, we are booked on the Rotterdam to cruise the Southern Med. Alexandria is still listed on HAL's itinerary.

I am not too concerned. So much can change between now and then. And, HAL, like other cruise lines follow the State Department guidelines as well as usually having a contract with a private firm of security advisors (e.g., Janes, etc.)

If we get diverted to Istanbul or even an extra day in Israel, I will still be a happy cruiser.

I hope and pray that whoever takes over the Egyptian government, hopefully after Mubarak steps down, that a leader who is interested in good diplomatic relationships with the West and is interested in encouraging a fledgling democracy for the people, will step in to the role.

[SwissMyst]

.....The Muslim Brotherhood has the numbers, the grassroots organization, the ideology and cohesion.

Not sure the young people out looting TVs and shopping malls in Egypt are Muslim fundamentalist. We will all have to stay tuned. The most hopeful sign are all the locals who themselves are protecting private and public property from looters. Looters tend to be more opportunistic hooligans, rather than dedicated political ideologues. It sounds more like young people who want a stake in their country's future and not signing up for more authoritarian rule of a fundamentalist bent: http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/features/2011/01/2011129081571546.html

[HappyInVan]

So far, predictable ...

Clashes Erupt in Cairo Between Mubarak’s Allies and FoesBy
ANTHONY SHADID, DAVID D. KIRKPATRICK and KAREEM FAHIM


CAIRO — President Obama’s calls for a rapid transition to a new order in Egypt seemed eclipsed on Wednesday as a choreographed surge of thousands of people chanting support for the Egyptian leader, Hosni Mubarak, fought running battles with a larger number of antigovernment protesters in and around Cairo’s Tahrir Square.


Both sides exchanges volleys of Molotov cocktails and rocks, while the military restricted itself mostly to guarding the Egyptian Museum and using water cannons to extinguish the flames.


The mayhem and chaos — with riders on horses and camels thundering through the central square — offered a complete contrast to the scenes only 24 hours earlier when hundreds of thousands of antigovernment protesters turned it into a place of jubilant celebration, believing that they were close to overthrowing a leader who has survived longer than any other in modern Egypt.


Such was the nervousness across the Arab world, spreading from its traditional heart in Egypt, that the leader of Yemen offered on Wednesday to step down by 2013 and offered assurances his son would not succeed him — the latest in a series of autocratic leaders bending to the wave of anger engulfing the region.

[iancal]

I find it so odd that many countries seem to be imploring Egypt to move to a democracy when those same countries have been actively supporting the dictatorship of the last 30 years and providing massive financial aid over that period. Seems a little disingenuos to me.

[peaches from georgia]

They were just saying on tv that the majority of the pro-Mubarak mob were members of his police force who had left the streets several days ago and disappeared from the scene. Seems like he now has them stirring up trouble and chaos pretending to be just private citizens who back him.

[pris993]

I find it so odd that many countries seem to be imploring Egypt to move to a democracy when those same countries have been actively supporting the dictatorship of the last 30 years and providing massive financial aid over that period. Seems a little disingenuos to me.

Even in a democracy politicians and the government generally operate to support their own self interest. The Suez Canal is far too important to the west to not support whoever is in power.

[bepsf]

...it would be simple enough for the lines to simply avoid the SE Med - sticking to Turkey, Greece, etc would be the prudent thing to do.

As far as the World itineraries, perhaps the lines will simply forego the Suez Canal transit (avoiding Somali pirates along the way - Bonus!) and the Med to re-route south around the Cape of Africa.

I must admit that I've never been keen to see Cairo as I understand it's become a massive garbage heap, and the area surrounding the pyramids a massive slum...
...for that matter, I truly have no desire to experience the slums of India either.

[CtheW0rld]

I must admit that I've never been keen to see Cairo as I understand it's become a massive garbage heap, and the area surrounding the pyramids a massive slum...
...for that matter, I truly have no desire to experience the slums of India either.

there's more to cairo than garbage - and frankly i've seen dirtier places right here in the USA (San Francisco has some pretty nasty areas). the egyptian antiquities museum was fascinating. standing before the pyramids was an experience i'll never forget, either. geez.

i guess one could stay on the ship.

[bepsf]

there's more to cairo than garbage - and frankly i've seen dirtier places right here in the USA (San Francisco has some pretty nasty areas). the egyptian antiquities museum was fascinating. standing before the pyramids was an experience i'll never forget, either. geez.

i guess one could stay on the ship.

Yes, I'll be first to agree that SF has some awfully filthy streets...
....but we dont' have anything like this:
http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2009/09/20/world/20pigs2_600.jpg

...and last I heard, the mobs this past week broke into the museums in Egypt to loot and destroy many antiquities - including ripping the heads off their mummies.

http://blogs.nationalgeographic.com/blogs/news/chiefeditor/2011/01/ancient-treasures-looted-destroyed-in-egypt.html

[Hlitner]

...it would be simple enough for the lines to simply avoid the SE Med - sticking to Turkey, Greece, etc would be the prudent thing to do.

As far as the World itineraries, perhaps the lines will simply forego the Suez Canal transit (avoiding Somali pirates along the way - Bonus!) and the Med to re-route south around the Cape of Africa.

I must admit that I've never been keen to see Cairo as I understand it's become a massive garbage heap, and the area surrounding the pyramids a massive slum...
...for that matter, I truly have no desire to experience the slums of India either.

Perhaps the operative part of your post is that you are talking about a place you have never visited. We spent quite a few days in Cairo (3 years ago) and loved every day. We enjoyed walking the streets, chatting with friendly Egyptians, visiting some of the museums, bartering in the fantastic Khalili market, etc. Sure, there are dirty parts of the city just like there are dirty parts of most large cities. But for us, Cairo was a wonderful place to spend a few days. As to the slums of India, we agree we would not want to see those slums any more than we want to see the slums of New York, Paris, London etc.

As to the current situation in Egypt we think travelers need to step back and take a deep breath. With some luck things will get stabilized within the next few weeks. If not, the situation in Egypt might be the least of the world's problems.

Hank

[CtheW0rld]

Yes, I'll be first to agree that SF has some awfully filthy streets...
....but we dont' have anything like this:
http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2009/09/20/world/20pigs2_600.jpg

...and last I heard, the mobs this past week broke into the museums in Egypt to loot and destroy many antiquities - including ripping the heads off their mummies.

http://blogs.nationalgeographic.com/blogs/news/chiefeditor/2011/01/ancient-treasures-looted-destroyed-in-egypt.html

oh, i don't know - it can get pretty bad during and after the folsom street fair. i won't post any photos of that event, however.

only two mummies were damaged and less than a dozen minor other items.

i used to like your posts, but you have lost a lot of credibility today.

[Jade13]

...it would be simple enough for the lines to simply avoid the SE Med - sticking to Turkey, Greece, etc would be the prudent thing to do.

As far as the World itineraries, perhaps the lines will simply forego the Suez Canal transit (avoiding Somali pirates along the way - Bonus!) and the Med to re-route south around the Cape of Africa.

I must admit that I've never been keen to see Cairo as I understand it's become a massive garbage heap, and the area surrounding the pyramids a massive slum...
...for that matter, I truly have no desire to experience the slums of India either.

And, how long will it take to re-route south around the Cape of Africa to get to Europe?

We are taking a cruise on Azamara in April from Dubai to Athens. We will be in Egypt as we go through the Suez Canal. We only have 12 days on this repositioning cruise as Quest needs to get to Europe for her Holyland and Med season.

[CtheW0rld]

And, how long will it take to re-route south around the Cape of Africa to get to Europe?

We are taking a cruise on Azamara in April from Dubai to Athens. We will be in Egypt as we go through the Suez Canal. We only have 12 days on this repositioning cruise as Quest needs to get to Europe for her Holyland and Med season.

having been through the suez canal, i can tell you it is firmly in the hands of the military. armed guards were stationed about every 100 yards or so. as of today, there has been no interuption to traffic thru the canal.

it would add about 6000 miles to go around the horn.

[Randyk47]

We had to cancel our Med cruise that was planned for last October and now this has happened I'm even more disappointed as I think going later this year might not be a good idea. In fact, we were in the process of replanning our eastern Med cruise and are now thinking we might skip a year and do something else on the bucket list. Maybe 2012 if everything settles out.

[cruisemom42]

Yes, I'll be first to agree that SF has some awfully filthy streets...
....but we dont' have anything like this:
http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2009/09/20/world/20pigs2_600.jpg

...and last I heard, the mobs this past week broke into the museums in Egypt to loot and destroy many antiquities - including ripping the heads off their mummies.

http://blogs.nationalgeographic.com/blogs/news/chiefeditor/2011/01/ancient-treasures-looted-destroyed-in-egypt.html


I have been to Cairo four times now and I have visited some areas of that city that a lot of casual visitors never get to. I have never seen anything like the picture you posted. What I have seen are sights like these:

http://lh4.ggpht.com/_5awnuSFix7o/TQWWv9gTg8I/AAAAAAAAABI/NOm9R3aRdso/s512/P1020023.jpg

Al Hakim Mosque -- not too slumlike. Floors so clean you could eat off them.

http://lh3.ggpht.com/_5awnuSFix7o/TQWYskW3NuI/AAAAAAAAABc/2gvPbjqQL4E/s512/P1020035.jpg

Street scene (el Muizz street) in Islamic Cairo. Not too filthy, and notice the friendly smiling faces.


http://lh6.ggpht.com/_5awnuSFix7o/TQWdRCIocKI/AAAAAAAAACk/j4byFMeCM_4/s512/P1020107.jpg

Ibn Tulun mosque, one of the most most peaceful and spiritual places I have ever visited (and I'm normally a hard headed rationalist).


http://lh5.ggpht.com/_5awnuSFix7o/TQWiYFPj0yI/AAAAAAAAADg/Ee88b9JAGl8/s640/P1020205.jpg

A fellucca sailing on the Nile at sunset. Gosh, doesn't that just look filthy??



Of course, any city can have its bad moments. Naples during its horrible garbage strike comes to mind. But the wise traveler doesn't base their opinions on one photo or one bad incident.

I can tell you for sure that I have been through the slums of Cairo ("cities of the dead") and they are not as bad as those I've seen in my own city. Not to mention that the people living there were MUCH friendlier. Were I to walk through a similar area in my city, I would be in fear for my life. Not so in Cairo.

I think someone else already set the record straight on the "looters" (total of 9 persons); in fact, the ordinary citizenry are the ones who formed a protective barricade around the museum to protect it until the army could arrive.....

[HappyInVan]

No surprises here.


Bad news for the pro-democracy demonstrators. The army said that they wouldn't fire on the demonstrators. Also, means that they won't protect the demonstrators from the government loyalists who are armed.


Looks like the establishment has reached a consensus. They will use force to clear the streets. The first attacks on the demonstrators are just warnings. Eventually, they will use deadly force as an object lesson.


Brings to mind the way that the Thai army eventually cleared the pro-Thaksin demonstrators in Bangkok in April 2010.


What happens after peaceful protest is crushed?


Why is Egypt different from Tunisa where the President has fled? The Tunisian interim Prime Minster is trying to build a new government from a wide spectrum of society.


CAIRO — Protesters seeking the ouster of President Hosni Mubarak came under bursts of automatic weapons fire early on Thursday, a day after the Egyptian leader struck back at his opponents, unleashing waves of his supporters armed with clubs, rocks, knives and firebombs in a concerted assault on thousands of antigovernment protesters in Tahrir Square..


The firing, echoing over Cairo, seemed a marked escalation of the deadly clashes that started Wednesday as the president’s supporters surged into the square, facing stiff resistance from his adversaries. It was unclear whether the shots came from the pro-government demonstrators or from the military forces stationed in the square.


Two people were killed by the gunfire and 45 people were wounded, said a doctor at a nearby emergency clinic set up by the antigovernment demonstrators. After the initial gunshots, soldiers fired their weapons into the air, temporarily scattering most of the people in the square.

[LAFFNVEGAS]

Cruisemom Cynthia, thanks for posting those lovely pictures and I totally agree with you from people I have spoke with that have also been there.

I myself am hoping for thing to be totally different than the current situation when we cruise in November 2012. That is so far ahead that I am confident we will be able to enjoy this area.:)

[world~citizen]

Egypt's moderate, secular strongman will be replaced by a fundamentalist strongman.

Tea leaves? :D

[chrispb]

Have to agree that I've never seen anything like that in Egypt and we've travelled a number of times to different areas of Egypt including Luxor where we roamed the back streets well away from tourist areas.

[Goldryder]

No-one can say how long the problems within Egypt & Tunisia will last, but rest assured HAL will do something along the lines of their Italian cousin, Costa Crociere...(as seen via a clickable link on Costa's homepage)

Costa Cruises announces that all its cruise itineraries calling in Egypt and Tunisia have been modified, cancelling the calls in these two countries and offering alternative port of calls as follows.

In particular:
• for the scheduled Red Sea cruises on the Costa Allegra and Costa Marina, the itinerary will now concentrate on calls in Jordan and Israel, with turnaround operations taking place from Aqaba (Jordan); in order to cater for customers who have already booked on these cruises, Costa Cruises will also offer alternative itineraries and date of departures;
• on Mediterranean cruises on the Costa Pacifica, Costa Allegra, Costa Mediterranea and Costa Atlantica including a one day call at Alexandria, this call has replaced by one day calls in Greece or Israel;
• on Mediterranean 7-day cruises including a one day call at Tunis (Tunisia), this call has been replaced by a one day call at Palma de Mallorca (Spain) Malta or Cagliari (Italy);

Accordingly, the Company confirms that all its cruises are operating normally and running to schedule, the only changes to the itineraries being those due to force majeure mentioned above.

Costa Cruises will resume its original scheduled programmes and reinstate the port of calls in Egypt and Tunisia when in both Countries the relevant authorities in charge declare the restoration of stability and safety conditions.

Costa Cruises considers the safety of its Guests and crew members as a key priority and it is constantly in contact with the local and international Authorities to guarantee the safety of its operations and to carefully monitor the situation evolution in Egypt and Tunisia.

Considering Atlantica is still in the Caribbean right now, it appears that Costa are covering bases right up and into the summer season if need be. They do still leave the option to restart the planned itineraries should the kettle stop boiling.

In regard to the Suez Canal, latest information via Inchcape is that the canal is open as normal to all traffic without any disruptions so far. So ships on world cruises (and those that require the canal for repositioning, such as Costa Luminosa, Deliziosa, AIDAdiva & Brilliance o/t Seas) should be OK for their transits unless things go really pearshaped. Should that happen, the lines will no doubt have back-up plans in place.

[HappyInVan]

I myself am hoping for thing to be totally different than the current situation when we cruise in November 2012. That is so far ahead that I am confident we will be able to enjoy this area.:)


I wouldn't worry about 2012! The immediate concern is spring/summer 2011. Watch the Egyptian elections scheduled for September 2011. Will it be business as usual (rigged election)?


The best cure for fear and uncertainty is knowledge. Let's understand the difference between Tunisia and Egypt.


The Tunisian President fled (allegedly taking 1.5 tons of the country's gold with him), and the interim PM is trying to create a broad based government. Why didn't this President and his allies make a stand and fight?


Tunisia is a small country. The population of just 10m is about the same as Los Angeles county or San Francisco bay area. In a relatively small society, it's difficult to shed blood and remain in public.


Moreover, the President and his family and cronies have been hogging the wealth during his regime. So, there's not much incentive for the establishment to perpetuate the regime.


In Egypt, (population 80m) the situation is different. Mubarak has been the front man for the establishment. So, the wealthy people, their business interests and their allies are going to make a stand against democracy and the poor.


Even in Tunisia, the future is clouded. I hear that the interim PM offered three posts in the cabinet to the Labour Movement. The labour leaders initially accepted. Then, had to decline when their members had their say.


There's going to be a furious amount of jockeying and elbowing in Tunisia. Hopefully, this will be without bloodshed.




Tunisia to lift state of emergency next week
By Tarek Amara | Reuters – Fri, 4 Feb 1:36 PM EST
.
TUNIS (Reuters) - Tunisia will next week lift a state of emergency that was imposed last month by ousted President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali at the height of a popular revolt, Tourism Minister Mehdi Houass said Friday.


"Next week will see the lifting of the state of emergency," Houass told reporters.


The state of emergency, alongside a curfew and a ban on public gatherings, were imposed by Ben Ali on January 14, a few hours before he fled the country.


Authorities have since then reduced the curfew period as protests abated.


"We wanted to do this step by step out of caution and to ensure total security for people," Houass added.

[SwissMyst]

Mubarak hands over power to Egyptian military who are respected elements in this country. Good sign for eventual stability here. Fingers crossed about autumn travel plans. Whether elections get held in September worthy of watching.

[sail7seas]

You couldn't drag me with a team of horses to go anywhere near that region.

That is not my idea of a relaxing, fun vacation.
It is all very unsettling now wondering if neighboring countries in the region are going to revolt in similar fashion. Too much unrest for my liking.

IMO........

[HappyInVan]

Mubarak is going going …


Is it over? Is it safe for tourism? What else will the rebels demand?


Tunisia appears to have formed a rough coalition. At least, they have a deal or an understanding.


Not so in Egypt. The establishment/military have tried for weeks to unilaterally set the rules. They have made nice promises and sacrificed a few scapegoats. But, they are determined to hang on to power.


The divides are too great. Rich and poor. Secular versus religious conservatives. Old against the young. A truly democratic government would be chaotic and unfriendly to the rich and powerful. All of whom are complicit with the Mubarak regime.


Who is Omar Suleiman? He's a key official in Mubarak's regime, ally of the CIA, and hater of the Muslim Brotherhood. That makes him acceptable to Western governments and Israel.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Omar_Suleiman#Political_career


But, he's also a Mubarak man, and alleged torturer. Check out the abuses in the Rendition program.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mamdouh_Habib


Not surprisingly, the rebels don't trust Suleiman. They don't accept the Western/establishment narrative. They want a revolution, not just a rebellion. Which way will the Egyptian people tilt?


No doubt, the ruling party will try to win the next election against the disorganized opposition. Lot's of excitement to come. The stage has been set for an interesting summer and autumn.

[parteer]

The lack of common sense reflected in these posts is disturbing to me. To think that the events of the last two weeks is not without a long standing and lasting impact to that part of the world is naive -- will you be the same people who are complaining when the ship is hijacked or you are kidnapped by terrorists? That area of the world, including Turkey and Greece, is a potential war zone. Anyone choosing to venture to that part of the world, no matter how beautiful the sights and friendly the people, does so at their own risk.
We cancelled our cruise about a week before the uprising began because my husband, who is actively involved in the intelligence community, decided the ENTIRE area was too volatile. One of my lifelong dreams has been to see the pyramids and Israel. Hopefully I will -- just not in the foreseeable future.
To think that things will be stabilized by "November" is denying reality and the present state of the world from both a political and economic perspective.

[happy trailer]

The lack of common sense reflected in these posts is disturbing to me. To think that the events of the last two weeks is not without a long standing and lasting impact to that part of the world is naive -- will you be the same people who are complaining when the ship is hijacked or you are kidnapped by terrorists? That area of the world, including Turkey and Greece, is a potential war zone. Anyone choosing to venture to that part of the world, no matter how beautiful the sights and friendly the people, does so at their own risk.
We cancelled our cruise about a week before the uprising began because my husband, who is actively involved in the intelligence community, decided the ENTIRE area was too volatile. One of my lifelong dreams has been to see the pyramids and Israel. Hopefully I will -- just not in the foreseeable future.
To think that things will be stabilized by "November" is denying reality and the present state of the world from both a political and economic perspective.

Wow- talk about a disturbing post!

As someone who lives in the region, I can tell you that I'm not particularly concerned right now. Even more important, I can assure you, that as of now (and hopefully for a long, long time, but certainly for the 'foreseeable future') visiting Israel is perfectly safe!

Of course there are no guarantees. But I sincerely feel that claiming that 'That area of the world, including Turkey and Greece, is a potential war zone' is needlessly alarmist, especially at this time.

Call me naive, but I'm an optimist, and for now I'm not abandoning this part of the world- physically or emotionally.

Maybe your husband had some correct info re Egypt, but clearly his belief that right now this entire region was volatile was a bit 'off'.

However, I do think the cruise lines are acting correctly in changing their Egypt itineraries for the next couple of months. I know I'd prefer to wait until things settle down a bit before I would consider a trip to Cairo. Anytime the military gets involved in running a country, I think it's prudent to watch and wait for a bit.

But Israel? If your ports are changed from Egypt to Israel, there's no need to be concerned. The Israeli government is overly protective of its tourists, and wouldn't allow cruise ships to dock here if there was even a tiny chance that it wouldn't be safe. (The same goes for allowing tourists to visit any particular area in Israel, btw.)

[happy trailer]

(sorry- double post)

[cruisemom42]

The lack of common sense reflected in these posts is disturbing to me. To think that the events of the last two weeks is not without a long standing and lasting impact to that part of the world is naive -- will you be the same people who are complaining when the ship is hijacked or you are kidnapped by terrorists? That area of the world, including Turkey and Greece, is a potential war zone. Anyone choosing to venture to that part of the world, no matter how beautiful the sights and friendly the people, does so at their own risk.
We cancelled our cruise about a week before the uprising began because my husband, who is actively involved in the intelligence community, decided the ENTIRE area was too volatile. One of my lifelong dreams has been to see the pyramids and Israel. Hopefully I will -- just not in the foreseeable future.
To think that things will be stabilized by "November" is denying reality and the present state of the world from both a political and economic perspective.

If there is credible information suggesting a threat, then the US Government (or other governments) should post travel warnings. Absent a warning and given that tours are visiting a particular place (and I am of course not including Egypt in the past few weeks or next few months), I wouldn't be unduly alarmed to travel somewhere -- why would I be?

One can wonder where is "safe" -- the recent airport bombing in Moscow killed 35 people. The Madrid train bombing in 2004 killed 190 people and injured nearly 10 times that many. And the London subway bombing in 2005 led to the death of 56 people with many more injured.

I suppose I could just stay at home, but then statistics have shown me that I am much more likely to die as a result of my daily commute to work and back than that I would ever be involved in any sort of danger while traveling abroad.

Of course, I would not put myself in the path of danger knowingly -- wouldn't go into a war zone, wouldn't visit Egypt right now. But I think you are stretching a bit far in saying that all of the Greece and Turkey is a no-go zone. :rolleyes:

-------------

From a Newsweek article on "What Should you REALLY be afraid of?" (Estimates per year, most figures from 2008)

Americans murdered each year in the US: 14,180
Deaths by unintentional poisoning: 27,531
Fatal car crashes in US: 34,017
Americans that die from seasonal flu: 36,171
Americans killed by terrorist attacks around the world: 33

I think I will take my chances.....

[Cruising-along]

Thank you cruisemom42, very well said. I will continue to watch and wait. A lot can happen in the 8 months before we're scheduled to be in Egypt and the Holy Lands.

I will defer to what our government decides about travel to that region, listen to credible information, and ignore alarming and unsubstantiated posts.

[SwissMyst]

Interesting first hand story from two local tourists in local paper who were caught in the middle of this and their tales of incredible protection and hospitality offered by the Egyptian police and military who also hoped very much they would not feel badly about their country and that they would return. Both tourists (older women on a Bible history tour) said they looked forward to returning with no reservations to complete their interrupted tour.

[pris993]

We booked the Rotterdam because it gives us 3 days in Israel, we have family there. Have been there 12+ times, my husband lived there 30 years ago. So we are holding our breath that things don't get worse.

I am more concerned about unrest in Greece, since we fly in to board the ship there and we will be buying our own air. So we will wait and see how it goes.

We have visited Egypt, Turkey, Greece and Israel many times and pray and hope for the best for the region.

I have no concern about traveling in Israel, security there is excellent. I would love it - if the cruise lines added time in Israel in lieu of Egypt.

[boards]

We were booked on the Rotterdam for Oct. but we think that now is not the time to travelling there. Until they have settled down and held their elections which is yet to come in Sept. We don't want to be there if all hell breaks loose again. Yes you can get kill anywhere, but why go inviting trouble, there are so many great places to still visit. However if you are comfortable going to that area, we certainly wish you a safe and enjoyable trip.

[Host Walt]

While it's easy to move the discussion to global politics please stay on topic which is on the desirability of taking a cruise in the Eastern Mediterranean.

The geopolitical elements of the Egyptian and entire eastern Mediterranean area are not appropriate discussions on Cruise Critic.

Thanks.

[Cruising-along]

Borden, sorry to hear you've canceled. I know you were looking forward to that cruise. :)

In our case we feel there are enough other great ports on our itinerary (Greece, Italy) that we don't want to miss either, so we'll stick it out. If there are changes made to our itinerary, such as Turkey or other ports in Greece, we'll be ok with that and make the most of it.

[cruisemom42]

Based on recent events, it would almost seem more dangerous to cruise the Eastern Caribbean (read last paragraph) than the Eastern Mediterranean.....

http://www.cruisecritic.com/news/news.cfm?ID=4364

[boards]

Thanks Carolyn. We were looking forward to it, but Monica just does not feel comfortable about it. Our primary desire was to visit Ashdod and Haifia. We have been to several of the other ports and enjoyed them very much. However we have rebooked for June 3 on the Eurodam leaving and returning to Dover. We have booked our second veranada, I can hardly believe it. We got a great upgrade to a Suite on the Noordam so we hoping it might happen again. Enjoy your cruise and hope that sometime we will meet again.

[HappyInVan]

While it's easy to move the discussion to global politics please stay on topic which is on the desirability of taking a cruise in the Eastern Mediterranean.

The geopolitical elements of the Egyptian and entire eastern Mediterranean area are not appropriate discussions on Cruise Critic.

Thanks.

Sorry, Walt. :o

[HappyInVan]

Based on recent events, it would almost seem more dangerous to cruise the Eastern Caribbean (read last paragraph) than the Eastern Mediterranean.....

http://www.cruisecritic.com/news/news.cfm?ID=4364


I think that you are looking at risk in the wrong way. Normal types of crime are predictable in a statistical way. The situation in Mexico is of the escalating type. The killer with the AK47 fired 50 rounds. A firefight between AK47s could see hundreds of high velocity rounds expanded.

The situation in Egypt is unpredictable. It could be a massive mess if it does blow up. No one knows what the probability is.

As I recall, some ships were stranded in the Suez Canal for several weeks during the Arab-Israel wars. You won't find it amusing.

[cruisemom42]

The situation in Egypt is unpredictable. It could be a massive mess if it does blow up. No one knows what the probability is.

As I recall, some ships were stranded in the Suez Canal for several weeks during the Arab-Israel wars. You won't find it amusing.

Very few Eastern Med cruises transit the Suez, so I'll leave that off my list of things to worry about.....:cool:

Which brings me to another point -- the title of your thread is about the "Eastern Mediterranean", and not all the Eastern Med itineraries even include Egypt. Yet Egypt is all you have focused on.

In the response I gave earlier, I tried to make it clear I was not suggesting that it is safe to travel to Egypt under current conditions. However, for someone to suggest that the whole Eastern Med region is too risky for travel is, IMO, alarmist and is contrary to what the generally available information would suggest.

The situation anywhere is unpredictable. No one expected a revolution in Tunis. I was in Egypt in December and there was certainly no foreshadowing of the events that have occurred this month. Clearly, our own country's administration was caught off guard as well.

Everyone must assess the situation based on their own personal risk:benefit scenario. I'm certainly not out to argue against that. I spent many years at home afraid to travel to some places I really wanted to visit (like Egypt), first because I didn't want anything to happen to me with a young child at home and then because I wasn't sure if it was safe for a woman on her own. Now I feel I've spent too much of my life waiting and that most places in the world are never going to be completely free of risk. I have traveled on my own in France, Italy, Turkey, Greece, Portugal, Spain, and Egypt, among other places. I am about to enlarge that list with Israel and Jordan. In addition, I have cruised the Eastern Med 3 times. On a recent cruise I also visited Syria and Lebanon. I have never felt unsafe on any of my trips.

As I say, each person has to decide for him/herself. What does bother me, though, is people who don't thoroughly do their research before making a decision. There remains a lot of misinformation about the region as a whole and the Middle East in particular. Americans tend to be very insular in their world view.

[gentlemancruiser]

I agree it's alarmist to say the entire region is not safe. Turkey has been very stable for several years, but Istanbul too has some dangers. For the past 25 years Egypt has been a somewhat dangerous & risky place for tourists. Only in the last few years have tourist buses been able to travel from Alexandria to Cairo with out military escorts, and armed escort are still required for land travel between Aswan and Abu Simble. On our recent Nile cruise we had armed security guards on the ships bridge at all time.
There will continue to be political unrest in the middle east region until there are fewer dictators and the quality of life gets better.

So if you are waiting for total safety & security when you visit, you will be waiting a long time.

[Cruising-along]

Thanks Carolyn. We were looking forward to it, but Monica just does not feel comfortable about it. Our primary desire was to visit Ashdod and Haifia. We have been to several of the other ports and enjoyed them very much. However we have rebooked for June 3 on the Eurodam leaving and returning to Dover. We have booked our second veranada, I can hardly believe it. We got a great upgrade to a Suite on the Noordam so we hoping it might happen again. Enjoy your cruise and hope that sometime we will meet again.

That sounds great, it's another cruise on our bucket list -- looking at maybe 2013.... :D I'm sure you'll have a wonderful cruise, and we hope to meet again also!

[chrispb]

I agree it's alarmist to say the entire region is not safe. Turkey has been very stable for several years, but Istanbul too has some dangers. For the past 25 years Egypt has been a somewhat dangerous & risky place for tourists. Only in the last few years have tourist buses been able to travel from Alexandria to Cairo with out military escorts, and armed escort are still required for land travel between Aswan and Abu Simble. On our recent Nile cruise we had armed security guards on the ships bridge at all time.
There will continue to be political unrest in the middle east region until there are fewer dictators and the quality of life gets better.

So if you are waiting for total safety & security when you visit, you will be waiting a long time.
There are no armed guards on the trip between Aswan & Abu Simbel, we did this trip in a private car although we were in a convoy - at least all the vehicles line up and move off together but after that it's a "free for all".

[gentlemancruiser]

There are no armed guards on the trip between Aswan & Abu Simbel, we did this trip in a private car although we were in a convoy - at least all the vehicles line up and move off together but after that it's a "free for all".

Private cars don't require them, they are only on the buses.

[HappyInVan]

One of the key features of the recent revolts has been the use of the internet to spread information and co-ordinate activities throughout Egypt. Equally important has been the resources available from the rest of the world.


How to organize and disseminate information? How to use propaganda to mobilize popular support? How to evade the state's countermeasures? What should the goals be?


The uprisings are developing into a Pan-Arab and Middle East movement. There's a limit to what peaceful protests can do in closed societies. But, there will certainly be more political and ETHNIC and LABOUR unrest in many countries.


http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/14/world/middleeast/14egypt-tunisia-protests.html?_r=1&ref=global-home


“Now the young leaders are looking beyond Egypt. “Tunis is the force that pushed Egypt, but what Egypt did will be the force that will push the world,” said Walid Rachid, one of the members of the April 6 Youth Movement, which helped organize the Jan. 25 protests that set off the uprising. He spoke at a meeting on Sunday night where the members discussed sharing their experiences with similar youth movements in Libya, Algeria, Morocco and Iran.


“If a small group of people in every Arab country went out and persevered as we did, then that would be the end of all the regimes,” he said, joking that the next Arab summit might be “a coming-out party” for all the ascendant youth leaders.”

[pris993]

Sorry, Walt. :o

Absent more current information from HAL on how itineraries may change I think it is difficult for travellers to separate the issues. Obviously safety plays a role in making decisions.

I am in a wait and see mood pending more info from HAL.