Hurricanes in the Atlantic

[ricki]

Our newspaper had an article this morning predicting a busier than usual hurricane season with some very likely to hit Florida.

We're doing the Ft. Lauderdale-Ft. Lauderdale trans-Atlantic October 28 on the Maasdam. Has anyone ever been on a trans-Atlantic during hurricane season? Has the captain ever had to divert to avoid a storm? Were the seas rough during that time?

Ricki

[aliaschief]

The answer to most of your questions is yes. Several times last year different Hal ships were diverted or missed ports due to hurricanes/storms. You can not predict what mother nature will bring about even during the non-hurricane season.

The seas could be smooth or rough even if there is no hurricane formed.

[jhannah]

The seas could be smooth or rough even if there is no hurricane formed. Excellent point to remember. It doesn't take a hurricane to make for an uncomfortable ride. In the event of such a storm, the captain will take whatever route is necessary to avoid it. This could add a day or more to your trip, depending on many factors. In the middle of the Atlantic, however, there aren't any options to seek safe harbor and wait the storm out.

[rebeccalouiseagain]

I did a Transatlantic is August and I was a bit worried too. There were no issues at all. Hurricane season is between May-November respectively but in my limited experience here in Maryland- we seem to have hurricanes more in September than later in the year. So I think October is going to be fine.

[jkrislc]

Keep in mind that you're pretty late into hurricane season, so the odds of a hurricane occurring during your cruise is pretty low. I'm not saying it can't or won't happen, just that it probably won't happen. Your more like to experience a storm and or strong winds that might make for an uncomfortable ride than a hurricane. Either way, it simply can't be predicted.

[FLACRUISER99]

Our newspaper had an article this morning predicting a busier than usual hurricane season with some very likely to hit Florida.

We're doing the Ft. Lauderdale-Ft. Lauderdale trans-Atlantic October 28 on the Maasdam. Has anyone ever been on a trans-Atlantic during hurricane season? Yes Has the captain ever had to divert to avoid a storm? Yes Were the seas rough during that time? No

RickiPlease have a wonderful cruise and don't worry about a prediction about the weather 6 mo. from now. BTW I will also be doing a crossing on RCI's Mariner of the Seas about the same time!

[Boytjie]

Our newspaper had an article this morning predicting a busier than usual hurricane season with some very likely to hit Florida.

Haven't they said that every year the last couple of years?

[RevNeal]

Haven't they said that every year the last couple of years?

Yes. And, eventually, they'll get lucky and be right. :)
LOL ... the ONE year they don't predict increased numbers of Hurricanes will be the year we get clobbered! :D

[RuthC]

LOL ... the ONE year they don't predict increased numbers of Hurricanes will be the year we get clobbered! :D
Then let the predictions begin!

[ricki]

Thank you all!

I know that meteorology is an inexact science to say the least, but this is our first year as a Florida resident, so I'm giving it a bit more credence.

Glad to know the captain will divert significantly, if needed. I don't love rough seas, but I can tolerate them OK (we were on the Crystal Antarctica cruise where 3 windows in passenger cabins on deck 5 were knocked out by the wind and waves in the middle of the Drake's Passage), of course I would much prefer a less exciting voyage!

Do all the Holland ships handle high seas the same? (Specifically interested in the Maasdam and the Amsterdam)

I do appreciate the feedback from CC members--thanks again!

Ricki

[donaldsc]

Has the captain ever had to divert to avoid a storm?

Ricki

deleted

[esther e]

The two worst seas I've encountered were the Drake's Passage a few years ago and last August/September right off Canada/New England. I believe it was Earl who wanted to be a pest and the captain had nowhere to go -- not north and not south and certainly not west, so the option was out to sea. It was very rough and I, who never miss a meal or drink from rough seas, had a hard time getting around.

Living on the Atlantic coast of Florida, I agree about letting the predictions begin!

[sail7seas]

We were on Maasdam first week of September, 2010 when a bad hurricane was looking like it might come up the coast to hit Boston, Maine and into Canadian Maritimes. Often these paths have wide 'cone of possibility' and they frequently adjust course.

They cancelled three ports out of our six on a seven day cruise and hurried back to tie up Maasdam in Boston. :eek: Our cruise was to end on Saturday and we arrived back in Boston on Thursday afternoon.

Without going into all the details, it turned out they might have made that choice too early as the hurricane never hit Boston and perhaps our cruise could have continued.

I have said here before and still state I don't second guess any decisions made by those with far more knowledge and experience than me when it comes to safety. Too bad they made the cancellation decision so early.

DH and I chose to leave the ship and return home Thursday night. Most guests left on Friday morning and the new cruise boarded on Saturday as scheduled.

[EatonDoolittle]

Our newspaper had an article this morning predicting a busier than usual hurricane season with some very likely to hit Florida.

We're doing the Ft. Lauderdale-Ft. Lauderdale trans-Atlantic October 28 on the Maasdam. Has anyone ever been on a trans-Atlantic during hurricane season? Has the captain ever had to divert to avoid a storm? Were the seas rough during that time?

Ricki


Hurricane season is over Nov 1 - activity stops usually by early Oct.
You will be fine.

[RevNeal]

I know that meteorology is an inexact science to say the least...

There are times I think that the meteorologists would have greater accuracy if they used a Ouija board.

[Crazy Gramps]

October?

Don't even worry about it.

As for the forecast it's a pure guess.
The guy who does it is in Colorado for God's sake.

Even when a hurricane forms the forecasters can't tell anyone where, when how hard. They all become historians and tell you after the fact what happened.

Her's my prediction for 2011. Nobody will be hit by a hurricane.

Art

[sail7seas]

October?

Don't even worry about it.

As for the forecast it's a pure guess.
The guy who does it is in Colorado for God's sake.

Even when a hurricane forms the forecasters can't tell anyone where, when how hard. They all become historians and tell you after the fact what happened.

Her's my prediction for 2011. Nobody will be hit by a hurricane.

Art

Well..... about October........ don't even worry about it?

We were on a Thanksgiving cruise and missed st. Maarten because of hurricane. Very rare but it does happen.

Our entire cruise was great and Captain avoided the weather but we missed that port.

[CtheW0rld]

i was on a transatlantic in late september a couple years ago aboard the grand princess. leaving greenland, we encountered the remnants of a hurricane. it was the absolute roughest ride i've ever experienced.

the captain turned the ship into the wind and we stayed in place for 36 hours. he later said they we experienced 40 foot seas and 125 mph winds. of course, all the outer decks were closed for the duration.

the ship lost an anchor, a couple outer doors were torn off, several panes of glass in the solarium were broken, panels and lights were falling from the ceilings and walls.

my cabin was very far foward. when i looked down the length of the passage way, i could literally see the ship flexing. :eek:

when the captain finally deemed it safe to proceed, he came over the intercom to announce he was going to try to turn the ship. we were instructed to sit down and hang on to something solid.

now i should say that i enjoy some motion, but this was a bit much. understandably, we missed our last port of st. johns, newfoundland because we had to make it back to nyc on time. we did.

on the plus side, many people were absent from dinner, so the service was even better than normal. no wait for the open seating.

[Infi]

Haven't they said that every year the last couple of years?

Yes. And, eventually, they'll get lucky and be right. :)
LOL ... the ONE year they don't predict increased numbers of Hurricanes will be the year we get clobbered! :D

Exactly! I'm just worried they'll get lucky with their predictions this year, because this will be my first Transatlantic. :eek:

[Orlandocruiser]

Hurricane season is over Nov 1 - activity stops usually by early Oct.
You will be fine.

Hurricane season officially ends Nov 30 and yes there are hurricanes and tropical storms in Oct and Nov just not as many as in "high season" which peaks around Sept 15. There was a lot of activity brewing in the Caribbean - most of the late season storms start there-very late last year (we had a cruise on the Ryndam on Dec 5 so were watching the weather closely)

[cruisersMandW]

Not to be an alarmist but... We bought our house in FL in 2003. At that point there hadn't been a hurricane to hit our area in many years. Needless to say the very next year we had Frances and Jeanne three weeks apart (Sept 5 and Sept 20). Both made landfall right here.

The next year we had Wilma in October.

Needless to say our whole area is much better prepared for them now. Luckily despite many predictions since, we have not had a direct hit again (fingers and toes crossed). If you read the predictions they usually say a double digit number of storms will form, a few will become major hurricanes and 2-3 will make landfall.

Having said that I wouldn't worry so much about a cruise in Oct unless seasickness is a major issue as seas will likely be rougher than normal. There are advance warnings and Carnival Corp has no desire to deal with a disaster. They would reroute as needed.

[sail7seas]

Cruise/visit the ABC islands. (Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao - southern caribbean) It is very rare for hurricanes to hit there ..... not to say it never happens as it does but much less likely than eastern/western caribbean.

[jtl513]

Haven't they said that every year the last couple of years?Even a stopped clock is right twice a day. Remember the Bob Newhart routine about the infinite number of monkeys at an infinite number of typewriters eventually writing all the world's literature? :D

[NMLady]

Our newspaper had an article this morning predicting a busier than usual hurricane season with some very likely to hit Florida.

We're doing the Ft. Lauderdale-Ft. Lauderdale trans-Atlantic October 28 on the Maasdam. Has anyone ever been on a trans-Atlantic during hurricane season? Has the captain ever had to divert to avoid a storm? Were the seas rough during that time?

Ricki

I was on an NCL transatlantic this past October when we had to divert from a planned port stop in the Azores because of a hurricane in that area. We had an additional sea day while we headed to a more southerly crossing.
The waves were choppy but not high. I've heard of other ships having extremely high waves during their ta some years, but we didn't experience that.

[esther e]

Every year we prepare for evacuation because we never take hurricanes for granted. This year I'm particularly worried because we had the worst Dec-March in the 25 years we've been here. I can't remember such long periods of cold, really cold weather for Florida. I hope the predictions are wrong and that we have a peaceful and calm year.

By the way, to the poster who said 'cane season is over Nov 1, just FYI the actual dates are June 1 - December 1. We hold our breath for 6 months!!! A couple of years ago the first hurricane to hit was June 1. One year I watched on TV a 'cane go up to Destin in the panhandle, cross over to the Atlantic, come back in Georgia and go back out, to still come back to South Carolina.

We live on the barrier island right between the Intracoastal and Atlantic. Yes, we sure do have flood insurance!!!

[FLACRUISER99]

Every year we prepare for evacuation because we never take hurricanes for granted. This year I'm particularly worried because we had the worst Dec-March in the 25 years we've been here. I can't remember such long periods of cold, really cold weather for Florida. I hope the predictions are wrong and that we have a peaceful and calm year.

By the way, to the poster who said 'cane season is over Nov 1, just FYI the actual dates are June 1 - December 1. We hold our breath for 6 months!!! A couple of years ago the first hurricane to hit was June 1. One year I watched on TV a 'cane go up to Destin in the panhandle, cross over to the Atlantic, come back in Georgia and go back out, to still come back to South Carolina.

We live on the barrier island right between the Intracoastal and Atlantic. Yes, we sure do have flood insurance!!!
I also live on a barrier island right between the Intracoastal and Atlantic and guess what, I try to cruise as much as possible during cane season. The ship can go where the Hurricane isn't!!

[cruisinggranmama]

I also live on a barrier island right between the Intracoastal and Atlantic and guess what, I try to cruise as much as possible during cane season. The ship can go where the Hurricane isn't!!

I worked for a weather company (which makes me only an employee of a weather company) when my kids were married both in early October, 3 years apart. The advice I got from meteorologists was to suggest they take a cruise if they were set on the Caribbean honeymoon.

DD took a W. Caribbean cruise and had a slight diversion and the weather was iffy a couple of days. DS picked a resort in the BVIs and had wonderful weather.

As noted, weather forecasting is not an exact science. As the season progresses, hurricane occurrence moves farther north giving the East Coast and Bermuda more activity than earlier in the season.

Cruise ships sail hurricane waters every year and we don't hear much negativity.

So, go, have a great time and que sera, sera.

[FLACRUISER99]

I worked for a weather company (which makes me only an employee of a weather company) when my kids were married both in early October, 3 years apart. The advice I got from meteorologists was to suggest they take a cruise if they were set on the Caribbean honeymoon.

DD took a W. Caribbean cruise and had a slight diversion and the weather was iffy a couple of days. DS picked a resort in the BVIs and had wonderful weather.

As noted, weather forecasting is not an exact science. As the season progresses, hurricane occurrence moves farther north giving the East Coast and Bermuda more activity than earlier in the season.

Cruise ships sail hurricane waters every year and we don't hear much negativity.

So, go, have a great time and que sera, sera.I think Captain wants to avoid storms more than any Passenger!!:eek:

[Oceanwench]

By the way, to the poster who said 'cane season is over Nov 1, just FYI the actual dates are June 1 - December 1. We hold our breath for 6 months!!!

Thank you for setting everyone straight about hurricane season dates! :) I was going to do that but read through the entire thread first.

The peak of hurricane season is September - August and September are usually very busy in the Atlantic.

We did run into a tropical storm on one of our cruises, and the captain changed the itinerary and got us out of the area. We ended up in Freeport - and we had been on a Western Caribbean cruise!

Those early reports might be frightening - but don't forget they get revised [usually downward] later on in the season.

To the OP: Who was predicting that they'd likely hit Florida? I'm not sure I ever heard someone narrow it down that far. Maybe "likely to make landfall in the U.S." but not a specific state.

[Oceanwench]

Just read this quote from the hurricane forecast report that comes out every year from Colorado State:

“The probability of landfall for any one location along the coast is very low and reflects the fact that, in any one season, most U.S. coastal areas will not feel the effects of a hurricane no matter how active the individual season is.”

[Krazy Kruizers]

Just read this quote from the hurricane forecast report that comes out every year from Colorado State:

“The probability of landfall for any one location along the coast is very low and reflects the fact that, in any one season, most U.S. coastal areas will not feel the effects of a hurricane no matter how active the individual season is.”

interesting quote

thanks for sharing

[ricki]

Thank you for setting everyone straight about hurricane season dates! :) I was going to do that but read through the entire thread first.

The peak of hurricane season is September - August and September are usually very busy in the Atlantic.

We did run into a tropical storm on one of our cruises, and the captain changed the itinerary and got us out of the area. We ended up in Freeport - and we had been on a Western Caribbean cruise!

Those early reports might be frightening - but don't forget they get revised [usually downward] later on in the season.

To the OP: Who was predicting that they'd likely hit Florida? I'm not sure I ever heard someone narrow it down that far. Maybe "likely to make landfall in the U.S." but not a specific state.


Hello--

This was the source for my original post:

http://www.heraldtribune.com/article/20110406/WIRE/110409673

Ricki

[kazu]

Hey Ricki - no point in worrying about the weather. Nothing any of us can do about it. The captains are astute and know what to do. We'll be doing our Transatlantic in November and to be honest, it's the least of my worries :)

King Neptune can play lots of havoc with the oceans - he doesn't need a hurricane ;) smooth sailing:)

[Oceanwench]

Here is a better source - he is an award-winning writer who covers hurricanes for the Palm Beach Post.

He knows what he's talking about.

www.palmbeachpost.com/storm/forecast-holds-for-busy-storm-season-1381836.html

What Eliot says about the CSU forecast team is pretty interesting:

"The team, which is in its 28th year of making predictions, never says how many or where storms will strike along the United States' 3,700-mile coast from Maine to Mexico.
But its new report gave a 48 percent chance - the norm is 31 percent - that a major storm will hit the East Coast, including peninsular Florida."

Now, I am not a numbers person, but a 48 percent chance that a major storm will hit the East Coast ... that puts Florida in there with a few other states, all the way up to Maine, no?

I sat in a 2-hour workshop with NOAA forecasters, and from what I learned, it's pretty hard to pinpoint where a storm in going to hit even after it's been named and headed this way. That's why you get the cone of error.

Trying to narrow it down before the storms are even formed ... impossible.

But at least you can relax -- your reporter says there is an 8.5 percent chance that Sarasota will feel some impact from a hurricane this year. That means a 91.5 pecent chance you won't!!!

[HeatherInFlorida]

There are so many "experts" that come out of hiding around this time of year and make their predictions. Truth be known, they can predict tendencies based on what they think the patterns will be, but nobody knows. If they did we could all get out of Dodge in plenty of time.

Easy to say there's a big chance a storm will hit Florida when you consider we have both the Gulf coast (north and south) and the Atlantic coast ... not to mention the Keys. But generally speaking in recent years predictors have been saying chances are good anywhere along the Eastern seaboard.

But no matter how many storms there are, the truth is it only takes one if it's coming at you. I always tell anyone nervous about cruising out of here or returning here to stay away if they're nervous. Because you can make yourself insane with worry and following tracks of storms.

On the Gulf side hurricanes are more likely in June/July, Atlantic storms are most likely in August/September. October/November it generally moves back over to the Gulf, but Wilma came at us here in Palm Beach County from the Gulf of Mexico straight across the states without losing momentum and devasted the area in late October. We were on a cruise in the Pacific :). So I learned a long time ago not to take bets and to pay no attention to the predictions.

When cruising during hurricane season, be fearless and trust the Captain:). Otherwise, don't cruise.