Just Curious

[spcl4cs_gal]

Would anyone happen to have some advance information on what hurricane season will be like this year in the Caribbean? :) I thought I read somewhere that it would be worse than last summer, if that is possible.

[Candy]

Better than last year...
http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2004/dec2004/

Would anyone happen to have some advance information on what hurricane season will be like this year in the Caribbean? :) I thought I read somewhere that it would be worse than last summer, if that is possible.

[spcl4cs_gal]

Excellent! Now I don't feel as nervous about possibly booking in July or August. :D

[98Charlie]

Not to rain on the parade but long term forecasts are very unreliable. On August 6, 2004 the same service as quoted above made the following prediction for the 2004 season (emphasis added by me):

The recent upturn in Atlantic basin hurricane actiivity which began in 1995 is expected to continue in 2004, although at a somewhat reduced rate from some of the very active years since 1995. We have adjusted our numbers downward slightly from our earlier 2004 forecasts.
Only 5 weeks before the first hurricane hit they were prediciting a season slightly less active than the previous 10 years.

The bottom line is that there is a hurricane season. The cruise rates are cheap but there is always a possibility of itinerary changes.

Charlie

[sail7seas]

Hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to November 30. That is a full half of the year. To eliminate cruising the Caribbean for six months each year on the very off chance there may be a storm doesn't make much sense. We have cruised the Caribbean so many times during summer months and love it. We adore that there are fewer ships, the ports are not crowded. We love the heat. However, we have very rarely found the prices to be so cheap. Ships sell out completely and the prices are not necessarily a big bargain.

NO ONE can say for sure how many/how bad hurricanes will be. If we had not booked Canada/New England (which, BTW, is subject to the same hurricanes), we would definitely be booking a Caribbean cruise.

[jhannah]

No matter how sophisticated our forecasting models become, at the end of the day the meteorologists are still basically just throwing darts. Mother Nature has a mind of her own, so anything can happen any time. Just hope for the best but be prepared for whatever may come.

[trubey]

Even daily weather forecasts seem to be no more accurate than daily horoscopes. susan.

[RichardK]

If anyone could forecast hurricanes (number, severity, etc.) that far out, they won't be going on a cruise ship, they'd own a cruise ship!!!

Forecasting about 24-hours out is about 90% accurate. But, even with the super computers they use these days, 3-days out is only about 50/50. And the reason they can't predict 5-7 days out with ANY reliability, well there's a theory>>>that if a fly farts in California this afternoon, it will affect NYC's weather (somehow) next week.........................in other words, way tooooooooooo many variables in play!!

[jhannah]

Hadn't heard that theory, Richard. But it's a good one!

[Himself]

I heard a report yesterday that we can expect a few bad years in a row due to some atmoshperic changes in the Caribbean

Himself

[Cracker Ken]

I was born and raised in FL. Have lived here all my life. I pay absolutely no attention to the reports regarding hurricane season predictions. The things that are certain, 1/ There is a hurricane season; 2/ There will be some hurricanes, somewhere, heading somewhere, and 3/ They all will go somewhere. That's about as certain as you can get. While they effect large areas at a time as they cruise along, there's always a huge area they don't effect. There can be an active hurricane down there, and it not even effect the cruise. It's just best to be informed, understand hurricanes (what they are and what they can do), and pay attention to what the authorities say about them. Last but not least, adequate travel insurance isn't a bad thing to have. I believe in the new hurricane tracking systems and models. Some are crazy, but there are some very good ones, and many of the hurricanes of '04 were really close to predicted paths. One must remember the "cone of uncertainty" that shows up on the forecasts. The one that turned and hit Punta Gorda, FL (Charlie) was still within that "cone" through it's entire journey across FL.

If you want to cruise during the summer, go for it. There's no sense in sitting around being afraid. The chances are you will get to go on your cruise.

[Oceanwench]

The peak of hurricane season is Sept. 10.

The only months that would concern me would be August and September. We enjoy cruising in October/November and never worry about hurricanes.
I would also not worry about June and July.

Most of the articles I've read down here are calling for another active hurricane season. We are getting our shutters installed in a few weeks!:)

[Cracker Ken]

Oceanwench - I certainly agree with those time frames. When we sailed on 8/30/03, Hurricane Fabian (I think that was the name, it was a very bad one that was heading towards Ft Lauderdale for a time, then turned and went to the N. Atlantic) was heading towards the Virgin Islands. We missed St. Maarten because of it (because rough waters closed the port), but otherwise we would have never known a hurricane was around. We had an extra sea day. We had a cruise booked on the Caribbean Princess to leave on Saturday before Labor Day '04 - Hurricane Frances messed that one up (at least we were allowed to cancel and get a refund with no penalty). I sure hope we don't need shutters again this year.

Considering that I went from 1960 to 2004 without having a hurricane come over my house in FL, I guess it's not all bad. Both Frances and Jeanne passed over our house, but Charlie missed us by 20 miles (still close enough to be scary though).

I feel like getting out my Jimmy Buffet records - "Trying to Reason with Hurricane Season" is one of my favorites. :cool:

[JDee]

In addition to what Ken suggests about travel insurance, if you will travel via air, suggest getting to the port a day early. Just as airports may close during winter for sever weather conditions, during 2004 hurricane season many airports were also closed.

Happy cruising....

[kgjg]

I work in the aviation industry and depend on weather forecasting for a lot of decisions that I have to make. All weather modeling in the mid-Atlantic is based on ENSO Data - El Nino; La Nina; Neutral.

We are currently seeing a continuance of an El Nino season, however it is moving to a neutral position and is expected to wan by June. All the above predictions were based on that fact. If El Nino continues, their predictions will change. Having said this, the weather forecasters, [that I consult with] don't expect Hurricanes in June or July no matter what event is happening in the Pacific.

[sail7seas]

The peak of hurricane season is Sept. 10.

The only months that would concern me would be August and September. We enjoy cruising in October/November and never worry about hurricanes.
I would also not worry about June and July.

Most of the articles I've read down here are calling for another active hurricane season. We are getting our shutters installed in a few weeks!:)

After having taken many cruises throughout the summers in the Caribbean, the one and only time we had a port cancelled due to a hurricane was in November. We were on back-to-backs on Maasdam the week before and then Thanksgiving week, and we had to miss St. Maarten due to a Hurricane. November, 2003.

[HeatherInFlorida]

I agree with Oceanwench. The most likely months for hurricanes are August and September. But it only takes one. Still, I think the only people who should really concern themselves with hurricanes are those of us who live here.

When we lived in the North, we cruised the Caribbean in summer months with no concern. If you're already at sea, the Captain will avoid the hurricane. It's a big ocean out there. But if you're really fussy about your ports, then I wouldn't recommend it because even if the storm doesn't actually affect you, it may have affected your ports. If you're flexible, I wouldn't worry about it.

Sail is right. It's a wonderful time to avoid the crowds and enjoy great weather. But if you have a choice, book in July and you should be fine.

BTW, the stubborn Bermuda High that caused all the problems last year is still there:( .