Havoc next weekend

[Lithium]

Looks like next weekend is going to be a mess for everyone involved due to frances. Since I don't live anywhere near a hurricane state.....what generally happens? Do all the airports close within a certain range? Do the ports close? How close does the hurricane have to be before they close these things? How long do they generally stay closed? I know a lot of the answerws will depend on the hurricane and how hard it hits, but I am just speaking in general terms. I am supposed to leave on the Zuiderdam next Saturday (flying into Fort Lauderdale Saturday morning), but its not looking good.

[Lois R]

Hi:) I do live in the Hurricane State.....though there are many more people on here with a lot more cruise experience than myself. I will try to help you with what I can.......
As of this morning (while watching the news) they said there won't be more "definitive" answer for at least the next few days.
It is usually on a 24-48 basis...how fast the storm moves and what direction he/she is taking...in other words, you need to watch the news too.

As for cruising, the Captain doesn't want his ship to go near a storm any more than his passengers......if they have to change the itinerary...they will (safety of everyone would be more important than what port you are supposed to be going to).

Where are you flying from? Being today is Sunday, You just need to wait ( I know, its probably not what you want to hear/read) until middle of the week.

Did you buy insurance and are you flying through the cruiseline or independtly?

Frances is supposed to be quite strong but by Saturday, you never know...maybe she will have come and gone....

[Lithium]

I am not worried about itinerary change or anything like that....heck, I don't even care if its bad weather. I am more worried of just not getting on the ship at all. Now please don't get me wrong here. I am most worried for people that this affects in a bad way...that is the people that live in the path of it and lives are ruined by it. But at the same time, I do have interest in what may happen as far as I am concerned.

I am flying in from Salt Lake, not with the cruise line. I do have insurance, but the money doesn't bother me either. I just want to go!!!!

[Lois R]

I can understand that (wanting to go)...as I sail in 2 weeks too.......

I think for your cruise to be totally cancelled it would have to be the extreme.....

I think others on here may have more "intelligent info" than what I am telling you...but just keep your eyes on the news...not much more I can tell you, sorry.

[HeatherInFlorida]

Here are a couple of excellent sites to track the storm. If you put these in your "favorites", you can go there from time to time and it will be updated. Also the Weather Channel has a report on all tropical storms and hurricanes at about 10 minutes before every hour.

As you may know, it doesn't look that good for Florida now, but on the other hand they believe that a high pressure area may form to the north of the storm. This will, in effect, keep it south (between Cuba and the Keys).
Click here: Weather Underground: Tropical Storm: 5 Day Forecast Map (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200406_5day.html)

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0604W5+GIF/291453W5.gif (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0604W5+GIF/291453W5.gif)

[sail7seas]

I heard a report on Fox News a few minutes ago and the storm is very strong. They cannot know for sure, but the latest seems to indicate a possible strike on the Bahamas. This morning I had heard about the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico being at risk. The course can change so many times in a week. There is only mild speculation about a possible hit on eastern Florida.

[HeatherInFlorida]

Still pretty scarey when you click on those links I posted above your post!!! I'm watching Fox News, too. Guess we're multi-tasking! ;)

[jhannah]

Not looking too pleasant for next weekend's return to/depart from FLL. But Mother Nature can do some strange things. Maybe this one will take a northerly turn and stay out to sea.

[Lois R]

Hi Jim:) ....we can only hope........

Quote:
"Maybe this one will take a northerly turn and stay out to sea"

[taszmom]

I think for the first time in a long time, I'm getting nervous. It looks like she's headed right to us. Right now she is Cat 4, they are saying may upgrade to Cat 5. (On Carnival that's a good thing! - Sorry trying to keep my sense of humor in tact). I can only pray it's not another Andrew. I've been living in Palm Beach County for about 18 years now and have been lucky so far. Just watching all that devastation from Charley is a reality check. Just stocked up yesterday to avoid the mad last minute rush for hurricane supplies. We should have a better idea by Tuesday.

[HeatherInFlorida]

Try to be positive. It's a very long way from us and so much can happen. I'm a worrier, too, but not so early in the game. If we get it, I'm right here with you in WPB!!!:) Last night on the news they felt very good about the high pressure area that is forming to our North.

So be of stout heart. Get prepared, of course, but don't panic yet. My gut tells me we're going to be okay.

[Sage]

How does your gut feel about further on up the state of Florida, say Gainesville way? I agree with you that one just has to wait and see.

[Jacqueline]

Landfall is SOO tricky to predict. Look what happened with Charley.
My husband and I were vacationing in Falmouth - cape cod approx 12 years ago. We were planning on going out to Marthas Vieyard the next day by ferry. The night before the news showed the hurricane landing in NC. so we barely paid attention.
THe next day when we got to the port authority, they were PACKING UP THEIR COMPUTERS. They had one last ferry heading out. I asked their advice which was "Lady, people evacuate islands when hurricanes are coming in, they dont go to them!". AS it turns out we did not go out to MV, got a hotel inland a bit in Falmouth and got hit.Were thoise forecasters off or what ! Power was out all week on MV and it was not a good thing for those out there,
Our vacation was over before it started.
DONT WORRY YET ! But its always good to be prepared !

[stillfrantic]

After what TT and Acura03 on our cruise next weekend went through with Charley, I feel bad even worrying about this one and what it might do to our cruise. We are flying to Ft. Lauderdale Friday and sailing out of there Saturday. Would they bring the Zuiderdam into a different port Sturday morning and disembark and embark the new passengers there? Would they provide complementary transportation to folk from FLL to say Tampa or some other port? Or would we have to figure our own way......maybe they would never change a port to begin with....:(

[HeatherInFlorida]

Saturday is kind of tricky because the current forecast has the hurricane getting to the area around that time (by my personal calculations);) . So it's hard to know what they will do if its headed toward the Ft. Lauderdale area. But I do know what I'll do ... put up my shutters and pray!!! Also, she could slow down, speed up, or even dwindle. Way too early to tell.

Sage, my "gut" tells me there's even less likelihood of her hitting Gainesville, but what do I know? I still think/hope its going to go somewhere between Cuba and the Keys. Time will tell. We'll know a lot more by Tuesday or Wednesday and that's when everyone should get their ducks all lined up:) .

Charley was not so far off the mark as people say IMHO. Hurricanes are natural phenomena and I'm amazed they can predict them as closely as they do. My family has a home in Chilmark on Martha's Vineyard so I know the area well. Hitting Falmouth instead of the Vineyard is still a very close call.

Don't know why I'm taking up for the forecasters:) but I think they do an amazing job. Used to be we had hardly any warning at all.

[Lithium]

How big of range do these storms encompass (I know it depends on the storm of course, but just generally speaking)? For example, how much effect does the storm have say 100 miles from where it hits land?

[HeatherInFlorida]

You're right. It depends on the actual size of the storm. Right now Frances is very strong, but not that large. Of course that can change at any time. I'm always amazed at how close you can be to the center of the storm and have little to no damage. We have friends no more than 40 miles from Orlando who got very high winds, but really no damage. Recently my husband and I drove up to Fernandina Beach and you could see the swath it blew through on 95. The heavy damage was only a few miles ... no more than 10.

Naples is not that far from Punta Gorda ... Actually Tampa (where the storm was supposed to hit) isn't all that far either. Can't tell you exactly. Yet it roared through Punta Gorda and all surrounding areas yet Tampa and Naples were fine.

So you just don't know these things. It all depends on ole Mom Nature:)

[Lois R]

100 miles is quite a spread....If for example....this is just an example.....if the eye hits Jacksonville (I am putting myself as the example:eek: ) 100 miles away...is
south of Daytona Beach...winds could be heavy but damage? You are asking difficult questions...remember the storm needs warm water to stay strong..once she lands...hopefully she will weaken.......
I agree with the others who say we need to wait at least 2 more days..then we will have a better idea of where she will be........

[TT]

Well I hope it stays far away from us. As you can see I am in Port Charlotte and my home can not be damaged anymore. Just as a FYI the hurricane was to hit Tampa but did a wobble and hit Punta Gorda/Port Charloote which is Charlotte County head on. The hurricane was a cat 2 and went to a cat 4 in less than 1 hour. In our local paper it said that a reader on top of one of the hosp broke at a reading of 171 mph. I survived Charley.......so bring it on baby I am ready for you. I just hope the cruise will not cancel not only just for me/hubby but for the great CC friends I really want to meet. The Sept. 4th group on the Zuiderdam is the BEST and I want to meet and Thank everyone of them for the concern/love they have shown worring about my husband/myself and my 7 show dogs. I love you all! We will meet and party together........God willing.

Toma

[TT]

Well I hope it stays far away from us. As you can see I am in Port Charlotte and my home can not be damaged anymore. Just as a FYI the hurricane was to hit Tampa but did a wobble and hit Punta Gorda/Port Charloote which is Charlotte County head on. The hurricane was a cat 2 and went to a cat 4 in less than 1 hour. In our local paper it said that a reader on top of one of the hosp broke at a reading of 171 mph. I survived Charley.......so bring it on baby I am ready for you. I just hope the cruise will not cancel not only just for me/hubby but for the great CC friends I really want to meet. The Sept. 4th group on the Zuiderdam is the BEST and I want to meet and Thank everyone of them for the concern/love they have shown worring about my husband/myself and my 7 show dogs. I love you all! We will meet and party together........God willing.

Toma

[HeatherInFlorida]

Toma, how awful! I'm so sorry! Such a horrifying hurricane and just glided by us down here. I feel all the safer now because if you're cruising out on the 4th no way Mother Nature would hit you twice. So Frances isn't going to come anywhere near us:) . That's what I've decided;) . Have a grrrrrreat cruise!

[ocngypz]

At last report, tropical storm-force winds were extending 100+ miles out from the eye of Frances. When you read the reports, pay attention to the quoted baromemtric pressure. At last report she was at 28.17. The lower the reading.. the meaner the storm. Hate to say it, but she's following Andrew's old path. Just pray, pray, pray... she falls apart.

I spent some time up in Charlotte County over the weekend. Honestly, the damage more resembles tornado damage and not hurricane. Sanibel and Pine Island....the damage is different.. and more indicative of hurricane winds.
Even here in S. Ft Myers where I am, our damage was more indicative of tornado damage than hurricane... and I'm only two miles from Sanibel.

My roof still hasn't been fixed... we're still leaking every time it rains.....and there are still piles of debris all over the place. If we get any of Frances here on the west coast.. these piles are going to become airborn!!!!

The cruiselines will be relying heavily on the reports from the NHC. Ships returning Labor Day weekend may have to be rerouted to alternate ports. It is just still too early to tell. Suffice to say, it won't be a pleasant weekend.. for either residents of Florida.. or cruise vacationers.

[RevNeal]

I sure hope everyone is safe when the Hurricane gets close to land later this week! My prayers are with and for all of you!

[Sage]

Thanks Revneal. We need all the prayers we can get this season. HeatherInFlorida, sometimes gut instinct has a lot more creditability in my book than the weather forecasters. So thanks for your input. Stay safe down south, and wish us luck up north. My prayers are with everyone in the state of Florida and for those that are cruising this weekend.

[stillfrantic]

Our local news said after the storm hits the Bahamas, the computer tracking models now show 2 potential tracks: One strait into the FL coast, the other turning the storm nothward and impactin SC and GA.



Time will tell, I suppose.:(

[HeatherInFlorida]

The news down here in West Palm tells us that there is positive news for us, but we can't rest easy because we are still in the "cone of error".

Right now the hurricane is expected to turn north which will bring it to the east of West End Bahamas which is 200+ miles off our coast. All forecasts are predicting the same thing which is very good news. They expect it will take the track of Floyd in '99.

So I was wrong about it going south (so much for my gut instinct;) ), but at least for now the news is looking good.

Worrying about hurricanes is the bad part of living in paradise:D .

[Sage]

See that gut instinct of yours is still working. You said that your gut told you that you were going to be okay, and right now it looks like you are. My money is still on that gut instinct. Please post if the "instinct" give you any hints about Gainesville. Stay safe. :D

[HeatherInFlorida]

See that gut instinct of yours is still working. You said that your gut told you that you were going to be okay, and right now it looks like you are. My money is still on that gut instinct. Please post if the "instinct" give you any hints about Gainesville. Stay safe. :D
Sage. many thanks for your confidence! It usually serves me well, but just in case I'm on my way out to Publix now for water, peanut butter and crackers. That, and a little jelly, should get us through;) . We in an extremely solid house built in 2000 with hurricane shutters so we'll ride it out if we have to.

Isn't Gainesville inland and quite a bit north of us? Sorry to be so stupid, but I'm not sure where you are.

[Roboat]

In east Orlando, the eastern edge of Charley's eye tracked right over our neighborhood, but the winds were down quite a bit from Port Charlotte (70 sustained, gusts to 105 vs 145 sustained, gusts to 170+!!). Toma, I can't imagine what it must have been like for you. I admire your spirit.

It's worth noting that when the eye was only 20 miles from us, the winds were not bad - maybe 30mph sustained. Within a few minutes, they ramped up sharply. When the eye was 100 miles away, it was just a little breezy.

I was glad to hear that the CC's cruising that week had nothing but good reports. The Captains do a good job of staying clear of the storms.

[Sage]

Yes, we are north, and we are inland, 45 miles from the Gulf and 60 from the Atlantic, but you see, you have a first class worrier here, and I guess with all of us, it depends on how far off the coast Frances tracks. We are in North Central Florida where the University of Florida is located. With Charley, they had predicted the eye to pass right over us before the change in direction, so I too am headed to the store tomorrow to stock up on a few things. Stay safe and don't forget the cookies.

[ASM]

My DD lives in Charleston, SC where they were taken by surprise by Gaston. He decided to come onshore as a hurricane just long enough to cause some damage. DD's house has a few leaks upstairs and her gas grill is destroyed and porch furniture piled up at one end of the porch. Luckily they were all safe-baby not alarmed and 2 yr old enjoying the excitement. They lost power about 12 hrs. They have already been warned about Frances. They predict possible landfall Sun am which means mandatory evac would probably begin Sat am. DD says she'll see us at our mountain house Fri pm for the holiday weekend if all goes well. Otherwise, she, the kids, the cats, and the neighbors will come up Thurs am, followed by hubbies Fri night. She doesn't want to wait for the order to leave. At least she has somewhere to go. Not everyone is so lucky. She is already near tears deciding what to take and what to leave. It never gets easier.

[HeatherInFlorida]

Well, certainly my prayers and thoughts are with everyone in the path of Frances. Maybe she will turn and just go right out to sea. ASM, at least your DD has you to go to. For now, we'll all just have a lot of hope that all will be well.

Our hourly update (at 3:00) just said that she's looking a little ragged right now. May she get so ragged she can do no damage! Next update on the track is at 5:00 pm today. We'll see what they say then.

[HeatherInFlorida]

Bad news from sunny Florida! The 5:00 update is now showing the hurricane hitting the east coast on Saturday afternoon. My gut isn't feeling so good right now:( and I'm a most unhappy camper.

[elmorejj]

All I could think of when I saw the 5pm update was, WOW!! it looks like the southern area of Fla. will get slammed on Sat am. Wonder if the ships will get into FLL and MIA?....jean :cool:

[Lithium]

I think the one significant thing we need to remember at this point is this statement:


"ONCE AGAIN...IT IS EXTREMELY IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT
TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT 96 AND 120 HOURS...BECAUSE THE HURRICANE IS
NOT A POINT...ESPECIALLY A HURRICANE AS LARGE AS FRANCES...AND
FORECASTS AT THESE EXTENDED TIME RANGES CAN EASILY HAVE ERRORS OF
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES."

It seems it all depends on the northern ridge breaking down. Lets hope it does it sooner rather than later and turns north.

[stillfrantic]

Our local news has been following the models, and while sketchy, he thinks the strike zone will actually be from Jacksonville to Cape Hatteras. I won't say I hope so, because there are people with lives and property and vacations planned there also, but I'll say I hope it goes out to sea and doesn't bother anyone.;)

[anngie]

Well, we are a little nervous here in Savannah. We are making preparations to head for higher ground if we have to. Historically, we have been pretty blessed but strange things are happening in weather today. Our local weathermen are saying to watch all the updates and add 300 miles for human error either way to the projected path. I pray for those in it's path and for us if it happens here.

[Lois R]

Hmmm....I am in Jacksonville........and have been watching the news too....this storm is BIG...and if she decides to hit in this area....well, the map actually looks like the ENTIRE EASTERN part of the state could be it......but and this is a BIG BUT.......we really won't know for another 2 full days......possibly 3....

Jean, it looks like the whole state will get slammed....just depends when and where you live:eek:

[stillfrantic]

IF we can get to Florida, am I safe enough in the strike zone in a Wyndham at the airport, or too dangerous and just give up? If that is the stike area, will the Zuiderdam even be there on Saturday?

[Lois R]

As of today, she will be there........I know I am not a weatherman....but as of this point, the only thing to do is wait....more will be known on Wed/Thursday

[HeatherInFlorida]

For people planning to come to here for their cruises, it's best to wait until Thursday to see what's happening. They made a huge adjustment in their forecast today. This morning I felt safe, tonight I don't.

For all of us down here on the Eastern seaboard of FL, GA and the Carolinas ... we all have to start making our plans. I've already gotten my peanut butter and jelly, batteries, water, etc. I'll be buying more water everyday that they keep saying it's coming.

It really could hit anywhere along here, but it won't hit everyone. From the tropical updates I've been seeing it could very well be complete south (avoiding U.S. altogether) and go over Cuba, or turn due North and avoid Florida. But then GA & the Carolinas still aren't out of danger. But if it's anywhere in between, somebody in Florida is going to get it.

I'm scared...gotta admit it.:o

P.S. StillFrantic, no ... if it's a direct hit the Zuiderdam won't be there Saturday.

[Lithium]

Maybe its a little early for this but has anyone actually called HAL and asked what they plan to do if the hurricane is close to Port Everglades? Or has anyone spoken to their airlines about it?

I agree that its still too early to tell and more will be known by late Thursday. My guess is it could even be an hour by hour decision as the hurricane gets closer to land. It could change course at any time.

Since I haven't studied about these things much I have recently studied everything I can. It absolutely floors me how we barely have the technology to predict where it is going even 1 day out. It makes me feel like we are in the stone ages still and when we see the hurricane on the horizon we know its coming for us. Mother nature is quite amazing!

[elmorejj]

I am thinking of you all (or y`all) in the possible path of Frances, I keep monitoring the weather channel, and weather.com, the Eastern seaboard has had enough for one year IMO. ....jean :cool:

[olderpilot]

Lithium,

The airlines will wait until approximately 24-36 hours before the storm's forecast arrival to make their call. Last flights inbound will arrive 18-24 hours prior. Last flights out 18-20 hours prior. The airports will remain "open" (even though most flights have cancelled) until the winds reach 50 knots (about 56 mph). The tower generally shuts down at that point.

Realize the airlines shut down early since they have to secure all their ground equipment well before the storm hits. Obviously they err on the side of caution, so oftentimes flights will be suspended and the airport remains open and operating.

I expect decisions will be made Thursday night or early Friday morning.

Jerry

[Lithium]

Lithium,

The airlines will wait until approximately 24-36 hours before the storm's forecast arrival to make their call. Last flights inbound will arrive 18-24 hours prior. Last flights out 18-20 hours prior. The airports will remain "open" (even though most flights have cancelled) until the winds reach 50 knots (about 56 mph). The tower generally shuts down at that point.

Realize the airlines shut down early since they have to secure all their ground equipment well before the storm hits. Obviously they err on the side of caution, so oftentimes flights will be suspended and the airport remains open and operating.

I expect decisions will be made Thursday night or early Friday morning.

Jerry

You are assuming a direct hit here at the airport or at least within a very close range correct? What if the storm is forcast to hit 150 miles away?

[olderpilot]

The airlines will suspend operations wherever sustained winds are forecast to exceed fifty knots over several hours. Thus airports within 100 miles of a Cat 4 or 5 Hurricane could be affected.

[Lithium]

The airlines will suspend operations wherever sustained winds are forecast to exceed fifty knots over several hours. Thus airports within 100 miles of a Cat 4 or 5 Hurricane could be affected.

Ok, thanks for the info! That is the type of information I was looking for. thanks again.

The good thing is the as of now, Frances is a relatively small storm eventhough it is powerful. I think that the hurricane winds are only extending 65 miles from the eye with tropical storm winds around 90 miles. I realize this is still big, but not nearly as big as some storms we have seen.

[cruisinpaige]

Looks like next weekend is going to be a mess for everyone involved due to frances. Since I don't live anywhere near a hurricane state.....what generally happens? Do all the airports close within a certain range? Do the ports close? How close does the hurricane have to be before they close these things? How long do they generally stay closed? I know a lot of the answerws will depend on the hurricane and how hard it hits, but I am just speaking in general terms. I am supposed to leave on the Zuiderdam next Saturday (flying into Fort Lauderdale Saturday morning), but its not looking good.HI, I live here and will be cruising with you. God willing. My family on the other coast just survived Charley and basically I am putting up the hurricane shutters and planning to cruise. You may want to try to come eraly, buthten again what if the storm hits...difficult to know what to do. Call the cruise line and talke to them. I did and they were very honest and reassuring.
Ihope we can still go!!!

[cruisinpaige]

Maybe its a little early for this but has anyone actually called HAL and asked what they plan to do if the hurricane is close to Port Everglades? Or has anyone spoken to their airlines about it?

I agree that its still too early to tell and more will be known by late Thursday. My guess is it could even be an hour by hour decision as the hurricane gets closer to land. It could change course at any time.

Since I haven't studied about these things much I have recently studied everything I can. It absolutely floors me how we barely have the technology to predict where it is going even 1 day out. It makes me feel like we are in the stone ages still and when we see the hurricane on the horizon we know its coming for us. Mother nature is quite amazing!
Yes I called and the agent said if the port is damaged and Miami is Ok they could send us there. Itenerary change is also a possibility but that is no big deal. In fact I would not mind if the ship had to sit there in port by Dania beach in Fort Lauderdale, and I live here! Like who cares its a cruise ship?

But seriously it is hard for those who are flying in to know what to do...Pray the blasted thing (the hurricane) flys up to the north Atlantic.

I just checked weather.com and Frances was headed right for FLL :( .
Jusy keep checking the weather and go on with your plans until you hear otherwise.

[TT]

I wish I had the weather channel or CNN but it will be 3-4 weeks before we get cable back they said. I phoned my client i the Keys who ownes one of our show dogs and Jan is getting meds together and dog food she said because they might have to leave. Since they live on a yacht they get info quickly there. Jan, will call ASAP with what they tell her and I will get right on the board to tell all of you. To everyone going this Saturday........and we thought this would be restful. See Stillfrantic I told everyone I should not go on this cruise and see what happends because I am going. Now before people blame me remember I live in Port Charlotte so don't pick on me. OK this is getting to me........ready?? joeawur2hlkcmsltuew09rj;lcmdlkgjhaoidawtjzslkxmcA: Zfie0[onlZ:oidgjnhv;,cz.lvmspdtio998tyoikf;st8t9w8eytskj m..........ok I feel better LOL

Please keep me informed I only have 3 channels and one is an informercial station. Thanks

Toma

[Lithium]

All the latest models (except 1) suggest this storm will move north before hitting florida. Due to this, they have no updated the hurricane track yet as they want to wait a bit more to be sure. This is good news at least for florida assuming it keeps on this track. Like I said above, it all depends on how the high pressure system north of the hurricane weakens and lets the hurricane move north. You can see graphs of all the latest predictions from the super computers here:

http://www.crownweather.com/tropical.html

[anngie]

Thanks for this good site but it does not look like good news for us in Savannah or for Lois in JAX.:eek:

[HeatherInFlorida]

Yes, as of the 11:00 update it is looking good for most of Florida. With any luck at all, It will scoot on out altogether.

Last night I lay in my bed saying a prayer and I found it terribly difficult to do. I thought how can I pray that it misses Palm Beach County? Am I praying it hits St. Lucie County, Georgia, the Carolinas? What about all the good people along those coasts? Why should just little 'ole me be protected from the storm? And so instead I prayed that this huge violent storm (which it is turning out to be at over 100 miles wide) is given the opportunity to go where she wants to go which is north into the Atlantic.

Sadly, the reason she hasn't turned already is because Hermine and Gaston are holding her down here (not being a meteorologist I can't explain it but my weatherguy did:) ). So I say, "just go away!!!":mad:

[Melianne]

It's beginning to look a little scary for us here in Savannah. Everyone keeps saying "we're due". If things continue to look iffy here, I'm going to call and make my south-of-Atlanta motel reservations. I may not use them, but I won't get caught off guard again like I did with Floyd (we had to drive to Chattanoga, TN to get a room). It took 17.5 hours to drive to Atlanta!!!

Meanwhile, I'm wondering what's going to happen to beautiful HMC when Frances goes tearing through the Bahamas. . . :confused: . . . and how long it will take to clean it up . . .

I HATE hurricane season, and no matter how great the rates are, I refuse to plan a cruise during those "high probability" months. That's why December is my favorite month to cruise.

[Lithium]

I find my self doing the same thing. How can you pray it hits someone else other than you. It is tough. I, like you, hope it just turns out into the atlantic or it dies. The latest forcast has it going even more right than the current picture, the forecaster said he wants to wait for 1 more run before showing this on the map.

[Trixsea]

I am also sailing this weekend and feel very guilty about wishing the hurricane a redirection. Let's all hope for the best for everyone. Fingers crossed.

[Lois R]

Hi,:) I always wonder where the "newsbreak" people get their information.....I am listening to the radio and the "noon newsbreak" came on...saying that Hurricane Frances is swirling around in the Atlantic (geee how about that update?:rolleyes: ) and then...."that she is supposed to hit land on Saturday just south of Cape Canaveral"......I would say they are not real bright....sorry, I know they are doing their best, but I cannot believe on Tuesday afternoon, they know she is going to hit on Saturday at that spot:eek:

[Lithium]

Well, there are several "informed" websites. The main one is this:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Click on the storm and read the discussion and check the maps.

That is the official government run hurricane prediction center. Everyone else gets their information from these guys. They run all the super computer models and make their best guestamite from those. The other one I like to look at is this one:

http://www.crownweather.com/tropical.html

They get all of their information from the first website, but they also show more graphics and also show the graphics from each super computer. Along with satellite images etc.

I don't pay much attention to anyone else...especially the local forecasters.

[jetfixer03]

Great sites Lithium...thanks!

Chris J

[sail7seas]

Ditto......thank you, Lithium. Great sites.

I add my prayers to the rest that Frances turns north and hits no land.....stays out to sea.

We have cruised the Caribbean so very many times during hurricane season (which officially runs from June through the end of November) and have never had a single problem. We have been extremely lucky I'm sure but nevertheless, I do not hesitate to book during the summer and fall seasons. Afterall.....that is a full six months of the year chopped out of possible cruise dates if we eliminate all that time.

[HeatherInFlorida]

All Florida, all Georgia, etc., are now in danger. We are being told to look at the entire cone because the hurricane and tropical force winds extend out hundreds of miles. At 11:00 we had such good news that it was going to track more North, but just this second (5:18 EST), we're being told it doesn't look now that will be the case. Here's the link I posted earlier in this thread ... it's similar to Lithium's, but it goes out 5 days.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0604W5+GIF/291453W5.gif (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0604W5+GIF/291453W5.gif)

Lois, the fact is they really are pretty good at giving times that are pretty accurate. Of course we are too far out, but they know the speed it's at now and with all their computer models assembled together, their forecasts are (unfortunately) amazingly accurate.

[Lithium]

Just a note about the computer models that we are looking at. The projected path that we are looking at is actually just the average of all the computer models. Some of them still show the hurricane going north while some say its going to stay south. As a compromise, the forecasters average the path and display that. Also of note, the computer models at 4 and 5 days out are only right 60% of the time and are subject to hundreds of miles of deviance. What does this mean in the end? They still have no idea where this thing will be when it hits land.

[Lois R]

Hi, Heather, I wasn't critisizing the meteoroligists.......I was critisizing the girl doing the news. She is not in the weather business...anyway....

I know they track it closely~I have lived in Jacksonville since 1965 and we missed Dora(thankfully) by one year.
And I also know the projections are looking at Jacksonville........on Saturday/Sunday.

[HeatherInFlorida]

Understand what you're saying, Lois. And you can criticize them if you want to:D . I have no idea why I'm their cheering section anyway. I'm just amazed at how well they can forecast these things. DH and I were saying at dinner can you imagine what it was like, say in the 1800's? With no forecasts? And suddenly bammo!!!

Lithium, agree 100% with what you say. But just the same we can sit here shaking in our boots, right?:eek:

[ASM]

Heather, I know what you mean. My DD on the coast is packing to evacuate right now and told me she couldn't pray for it to go elsewhere because it would be so selfish. I told her to pray it would lessen, or go out to sea and for all the people and property in its path. She is more scared this time than ever before.

[HeatherInFlorida]

Yes, me too. Because of the size and strength of it. We should all just pray that the Bermuda High weakens. If that happens it will allow Frances to move North and hopefully barely make landfall or not at all. Here in So. Florida they say Thursday will be the "fork in the road" ... the day that pretty much tells us what she's going to do.

[dakrewser]

DH and I were saying at dinner can you imagine what it was like, say in the 1800's? With no forecasts? And suddenly bammo!!!
Forget 1800's, try 1954. We'd (I was a young lad in Rhode Island at the time) heard that some big storm had hit the southeast. Also that it was now moving thru Tennessee on its way to Ohio. The next morning Hurricane Carol slammed up the Naragansett Bay right thru our backyard!

Whatdayaknow - I just looked it up (http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/box/hurricanecarol.htm) to be sure I had the year right, and it was 50 years ago today -Aug. 31, 1954!

-dave