Hurrican Ivan

[sail7seas]

It could hit Lesser Antiles by Tuesday if current course continues.

This thread was merged with another thread and the title changed. Host Walt

[Krazy Kruizers]

I just heard the same thing on the weather channel - 115 mile per winds.

The first report this morning indicated that Ivan was going to go towards Jamaica.

Now they are making it sound like he will head towards the Bahamas and the southern tip of Florida.

[Sage]

I also heard that it is headed for a category 4 and is taking aim at the islands by Wednesday or Thursday, and please no more storms for Florida. :(

[Slinkiecat]

Looks like that one is going to hit closer to our place in Naples. We were lucky that Charley and Frances both hit north of us.

Fortunately we are still in Ohio for our summer vacation, so our concern is for our friends and neighbors as well as our continued electric power and phone service in the area. Florida's economy is really taking a hit this year.

slinkie

[srpilo]

2 of the 4 comuter models have it going straight, and into the western Caribbean and the other 2 have it turning right and heading over cuba by next Thursday or Friday..:(

My fingers are getting sore from keeping them crossed for the last week, and now it looks like another week of praying.. Specially since I'm do on the Zuiderdam next Saturday...


Ok ... back to crossing my fingers :D

Srpilo

[jhannah]

Expect a bit of a shock when your homeowners' insurance comes up for renewal! :eek:

[lka1012]

Okay, just who did Florida tick off. Poseidon? Neptune?

[sail7seas]

I so clearly remember weather forecasters saying in early spring they expected a much busier than usual Hurricane Season this year. How could they know this? Was it just a matter of odds? Previous patterns? Overdue?

It's enought already. Calm down these horrible hurricanes.........Please???

[CaptData]

I think Florida p222ed off both Nuptune and Posidon!! :D

Here's hoping this is the last one for a long time. I liked Flordia, warm and sunny. I am from Canada and when are temps are cold, I like Florida.

[JimnKaren]

I have a question about hurricanes and what happens. I visited in West Palm Beach last year and went to the zoo. Most of the animal exhibits are outdoors. Does any know what, if any, special consideration is done for those animals?

Jim

[Lois R]

Hi Karen and Jim, I think they are moved (as the people were told to evacuate)....there have been some stories on people's pets and what to do with them....I definitely think the zoo makes provisions for the animals.

If anyone saw CNN or FOX...they showed a HORSE...running like a wild thing....he must have gotten loose and the poor thing didn't know what to do...I really wonder what happened to him........

Quote by lka

"Okay, just who did Florida Tick Off"?

Nobody...I swear.......we just try to give you oranges and Mickey Mouse:eek:

[RevNeal]

Okay, just who did Florida tick off. Poseidon? Neptune?

and

I think Florida p222ed off both Nuptune and Posidon!

Given that Poseidon and Neptune are the same deity with two different names -- one Greek, the other Roman -- to tick off one is to tick off the other. :)

[RevNeal]

Nobody...I swear.......we just try to give you oranges and Mickey Mouse

And Mickey's annoying Great Uncle Chad ... as in Hanging Chad. ;)

[RevNeal]

Does any know what, if any, special consideration is done for those animals?

Hippo Steaks and Elephant Stew? ;)

[Lois R]

Rev, Ouch, Ouch:eek: ;)

[elmorejj]

Lois, it looks as though this seasons orange crop has been wiped out, do you think we should start stocking up on frozen OJ? are the prices going to sky rocket? I don`t eat or drink citrus due to a medical problem, but I HAVE to keep it in the house at all times for my DH who is diabetic, what do you think?......jean :cool:

[sail7seas]

I think you can be very sure, Jean, that the price of oranges and grapefruit will be very high. The fruit knocked off the trees is not ready for harvest so the whole crop is lost. The financial losses to Florida will be gigantic.

[sail7seas]

As someone who has never had a great fondness for Mickey (nor his amusement parks).....I'm sure it must be him and his buddies who &@%# off the Gods and put Florida in the crosshairs.

[Lois R]

Jean, ....what do I think? About Orange Juice and Mickey Mouse?
Hmmmm....I love Fresh Orange Juice...actually, Publix has a good brand.....

And for Mickey? I am the opposite of 7~I love Mick and the gang:D

[FlorenceItaly]

Lois - How often do you visit the Magic Kingdom? We were there last year, AT THIS TIME, and I l had such fun...I was just like a kid again.
Dh and ds made fun of me(in a loving way, of course).

Marie

[Lois R]

Hi Marie:) I haven't been to "The Magic Kindgom" in many years. I was in Epcot though...trying to think....It was July 2003 or 2002..cannot remember.
A couple of years ago.......oh it was 2002....because July of last year I went on a 3 night cruise. In 2002 I had a friend visit from Tennessee and she had not been to Epcot before. We had a really good time!

And Marie, you are allowed to be a kid at Disney:D

[Cracker Ken]

Rev Neal - I was just visualizing the grill we would have to use for those steaks. Huge. :D

I saw a piece on TV last night where they showed people bringing in zoo animals over in that area, and it could have been the zoo that was mentioned. Hurricanes are always a contingency in FL.

Yep, you can count on it. OJ is going to get more expensive. The Brazilian imports of OJ has been hurting the citrus industry in FL already, driving down the cost paid to growers for fresh oranges. Due to the drop in price of the oranges, many growers have sold their groves, and now they are subdivisions (we have to have those for all the folks moving down from up north). There are still areas of FL where the oranges haven't been stripped, however there is a large percentage that have been. There has been some talk about increasing tariff's on the Brazilian OJ imports, so as to level the playing field for the FL citrus growers. These two hurricanes isn't gonna help them at all.

The hurricane went over me this afternoon, as a minimal Cat 1 storm. We came out OK with no damage. I see, as of the evening reports, that Ivan is now a Cat 4 hurricane. I saw where Ivan now holds the record for being the strongest tropical cyclone for the lower latititudes of the Atlantic Basin (per HurricanAlley.net). It's long range track has it on the E. tip of Cuba at 8AM Friday, pointed at Miami. The storm might get disrupted when it crosses over the mountains of Haiti. NO, we don't need a 3rd hurricane. 2 is two too many.

Ken

[robsvacation]

Well, it's nice to have a heads up but let's face it, Ivan could go north, south, fall apart, tear itself up on a island or 2, get stronger, charge course at the last second, etc, etc. It's just too soon to panic, but never too soon to prepare.

Charley tricked everyone and hit a part of the state that was not fully prepared. Frances has been big and effected alot of people but hopefully not the monster people feared. Downtown Richmond has been devistated by a tropical storm that was largely ignored. What this tells us is you can never be too sure, but should prepare anyways.

[Krazy Kruizers]

You can bet that price of oranges and orange juice along with grapefruit, vegetables, lettuce, tomatoes - you name it.

And if Ivan does decide to head towards Florida - it's just to horrible to think about.

[HeatherInFlorida]

Does everyone have this link to see the most recent status of Ivan? It's an excellent one and be sure to scroll down all the way to see all the various charts, graphs, etc. Needless to say, I click on it quite often;)

Click here: Tropical Weather Information (http://www.crownweather.com/tropical.html)

[Roboat]

Does everyone have this link to see the most recent status of Ivan? It's an excellent one and be sure to scroll down all the way to see all the various charts, graphs, etc. Needless to say, I click on it quite often;)

Click here: Tropical Weather Information (http://www.crownweather.com/tropical.html)

Excellent link, Heather. Thanks! That information enabled me to fine-tune some forecast models of my own:
http://community.webshots.com/s/image16/1/90/4/185319004jTAaAM_ph.jpg

[HeatherInFlorida]

Roboat, I love it!!!:D Actually, your map reminds me a little bit of how I feel about now. Thanks for the laugh ... it's been awhile.

[Krazy Kruizers]

Just heard on the weather channel that Ivan is now a category 5 with winds of over 160 miles per hour.

Right he is headed for Jamaica and the Cayman Islands.

Ivan is expected to hit southern Florida - really too soon to tell.

[Lois R]

KK...saw the same thing:mad: ...grrrrrr...............

[Sage]

Lois, please look for those "road signs" that point to Florida, and turn them around or something. Please no more storms.

[etrainer1]

just read that ivan is now a category 5!!!! granada is wiped out!

[etrainer1]

heard granada is wiped out and that a prison was destroyed. some convicts escaped!:eek:

[Krazy Kruizers]

St Lucia, St Vincent's and Barbados all had significant damage.

Yes there was a prison destroyed on Grenada and prisoners escaped.

I have watched 3 different channels this morning and each one is showing a different path once Ivan crosses over Cuba.

[jollycruiser]

This is the scary path for Florida.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0904W5+GIF/090853W5.gif

[Stevesan]

I have watched 3 different channels this morning and each one is showing a different path once Ivan crosses over Cuba.




That is an amazing anomaly considering the U.S. has only one hurricane center which gets its forecast data from the same satellite and Hurricane Hunter planes. What other data is available for the divergent forecasts?

[CaptData]

Metoraligists can sometiems think differently for each channel. One may say with the wind and sea it will go this way the next will say by history it will go this way. It is by no means an exact science. It is like torrnados they only can accurately give about 15 mins warning.

[CaptData]

Metoraligists can sometiems think differently for each channel. One may say with the wind and sea it will go this way, the next will say by history it will go this way. It is by no means an exact science. It is like torrnados they only can accurately give about 15 mins warning.

It has been a bad year for weather. Up here in Canada, we only get one or two torrnados a year where I live. This year there were 8. On landed less then a mile from me. We watched it form and come down. Because I live in a mobile went to my granddaughter's school. It's an underground school for just this reason.

[Orcrone]

That is an amazing anomaly considering the U.S. has only one hurricane center which gets its forecast data from the same satellite and Hurricane Hunter planes. What other data is available for the divergent forecasts?Although there is one set of data, there are a number of different models for forecasting a hurricane. Additionally, part of the model is the steering factors (high pressure, cold fronts, etc.). The effect that these steering factors have on a hurricane is of course based on the prediction of the location, strength, speed of these fronts, high pressure, low pressure zones. There are a number of different models for predicting these items. So the variability of predictions in these steering factors will vary the prediction of even a single hurricane model and multiplies the possibilities of the various hurricane prediction models.

For an example of some of these factors check out:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/090853.shtml?

It's a discussion of hurricane Ivan and discusses the track based on different models of a low pressure front.

[jhannah]

Orcrone is correct. The same computer can plot different potential tracks based on the many variables. An individual meteorologist can consider the alternatives and, using his/her training and experience, can opt with a different scenario than another meteorologist. Much science is involved ... but Mother Nature often defies being put in a box.

[doone]

Just heard on the news, mandatory evacuation for the Florida Keyes has just started happening due to Ivan. My thoughts and prayers are with the entire state of Florida!!!

[jhannah]

It's good they're doing it now, while there's still time to pack up and get to safer ground. I really feel for our friends in Florida. I'm sure my imagination can't even come close to comprehending what they're going through emotionally right now.

[Lois R]

ok...this is going to sound like I am whining...but I don't mean it to...honest...

Do you think Saturday's cruise will go as scheduled?......I know my flight leaves ok tomorrow...but I wonder now...after getting to FLL will we sail?:eek:

[FlorenceItaly]

Lois - I think it will. I think you will leave ahead of IVAN. IF effecting FL, it is predicted around Sun/Mon. I am suppose to leave from Port Canaveral next Sunday, but PC is currently closed....so I may be departing from Miami...don't know...Really think you will be ahead of any problems.

Marie

[Lois R]

Hi Marie:) I sure do hope so.....you know how after Charley came..everyone was wondering about a double whammy~which Frances gave us:( ...now, can you believe we might get a TRIPLE WHAMMY:mad:

[jollycruiser]

ok...this is going to sound like I am whining...but I don't mean it to...honest...

Do you think Saturday's cruise will go as scheduled?......I know my flight leaves ok tomorrow...but I wonder now...after getting to FLL will we sail?:eek:
I would suspect the cruise will go as scheduled. The storm should still be south of Cuba on Saturday. I would think that the "Z" captain will point the boat east and go full throttle. Should be out of harms way.

Here is a composite of all the current computer models. As you can see no one or no computer knows with certainty where Ivan will go!

http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/hurricane_spaghetti2.asp

[FlorenceItaly]

Hi Marie:) I sure do hope so.....you know how after Charley came..everyone was wondering about a double whammy~which Frances gave us:( ...now, can you believe we might get a TRIPLE WHAMMY:mad:

I simply CAN NOT BELIEVE IT, I really can not..........

Marie

[localady]

No way are you whining Lois:( I am hopeful that Ivan will miss Florida entirely, and our prayers are with all who have been so battered this hurricane season as this one will be the one in the history books. God bless and we pray for a quiet weekend weather wise in Florida.

[Lithium]

This is one serious hurricane:

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING IVAN
THIS MORNING RECENTLY REPORTED...AT 614 AM AST OR 1014Z...A
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 154 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THEY ALSO
REPORTED A LOWER CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 920 MB...SUGGESTING THAT IVAN
MAY CONTAIN SURFACE WINDS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE 160 MPH
INDICATED IN THE 5 AM AST ADVISORY. DROPSONDE WIND REPORTS ALSO
INDICATED WINDS OF NEAR 210 MPH AT AN ALTITUDE OF ABOUT 350 FEET
ABOVE THE OCEAN SURFACE.

[Orcrone]

This is one serious hurricane:

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING IVAN
THIS MORNING RECENTLY REPORTED...AT 614 AM AST OR 1014Z...A
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 154 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THEY ALSO
REPORTED A LOWER CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 920 MB...SUGGESTING THAT IVAN
MAY CONTAIN SURFACE WINDS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE 160 MPH
INDICATED IN THE 5 AM AST ADVISORY. DROPSONDE WIND REPORTS ALSO
INDICATED WINDS OF NEAR 210 MPH AT AN ALTITUDE OF ABOUT 350 FEET
ABOVE THE OCEAN SURFACE.This one is not as large as Frances, but right now a lot more intense. I've already did some research on airfare to get my mom up to us in the next day or so.

[Krazy Kruizers]

DH had a doctor's appointment this morning and afterwards we went out for lunch.

Just got back and am reading and watching the various weather reports - doesn't look good.

Zuiderdam is presently in the western Caribbean and has to go through some of those rough waters if she heads above Cuba to return to Ft Lauderdale on Saturday.

If she goes south of Cuba - after Ivan has gone through the Caymans and Jamaica, it will take her a few hours longer to return to Ft Lauderdale.

[Lois R]

and that is probably what is going to happen....I don't think she will be able to say ahead of the storm in this particular case....my boss and I were looking at the models on the national hurricane center site...he said no way on Saturday would she be able to get ahead of IVAN...that the ship would have to stay behind.....to get home safely.

[DFD1]

Lois; I would expect your cruise will sail without any problems. However, you might want to pack for a couple of extra days in case things are a mess when you try to return.

Good Luck to you. Once you depart, the news of Ivan will not come so fast because of the limited access to news and weather channels. You'll be in good hands on the Z, so try and relax as best you can.

[Lois R]

Boy, this is one cruise we will remember.....I didn't think about being delayed coming back:eek: ....I was figuring (sadly):( he would probably hit while we are at sea and by the following Sat~Sept 18th we would be able to get into the port without a problem.

But maybe you are right...oh Gosh...maybe I should even put a pair of sweats in the suitcase;)

[LoveLifeAtSea]

Lois ... Vacations AND "planning for vacations" are supposed to be relaxing and carefree. Bless your heart, at this stage it seems as though it's all but that.

I truly hope that you can manage to get on the ship without an incident, relax and forget about all this for a while, have the time of your life and then return safe and sound to your home without any problems.

You have been upbeat and supportive of so many others on this board .... you deserve for this cruise to be perfect!

[Lois R]

thanks....for those kind words:) we are all different people and to be honest I am not even worried about actually being in the Caribbean.....I just keep wondering if the ship will really sail:eek: ......I know unless something happens TOMORROW my flight will leave as scheduled.....and I guess once I get to FLL I will just have to wait and see and hope Saturday comes and we can board the ship....I do wish I could feel more excited:confused: I felt more excited typing that "THANK YOU" Thread than I do today.......geeezzz.....

[Stevesan]

Although there is one set of data, there are a number of different models for forecasting a hurricane. Additionally, part of the model is the steering factors (high pressure, cold fronts, etc.). The effect that these steering factors have on a hurricane is of course based on the prediction of the location, strength, speed of these fronts, high pressure, low pressure zones. There are a number of different models for predicting these items. So the variability of predictions in these steering factors will vary the prediction of even a single hurricane model and multiplies the possibilities of the various hurricane prediction models.

For an example of some of these factors check out:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/090853.shtml?

It's a discussion of hurricane Ivan and discusses the track based on different models of a low pressure front.I absolutely agree that computer models can calculate divergent tracks. I spent three years in the USAF Hurricane Hunter squadron and am familiar with forecasting techniques. However, all these models are working with the same data. Only individual computer programs could account for differences. I just wonder why anyone would even think their model is more accurate than NOOAs!
Every TV weather forecaster poses as an 'expert' meteoroligist to pump up station ratings. I strongly suspect the differing models are interpreted with the same motive in mind.
More than forty-eight hours out is extremely uncertain. That's exactly why NOOA's projections are balloon shaped. Your local forecaster drums up some excitement by biasing that balloon. They all have delusions of being another Dan Rather.

[jhannah]

And don't forget some meclizine/Bonine!

[Host Walt]

PLEASE NOTE -

There were two threads on IVAN that have now been merged into this one thread.

Keep your fingers crossed and wish the best for all of the folks living and visiting in the Caribbean Islands.

[Cracker Ken]

The 11PM advisory from the NHC has Ivan at 155 MPH, approaching Jamaica. God help those folks.

Something tells me that Jamaica will be off the list for cruise itineraries for a while.

I live 30 miles E of Tampa, so we have plenty to worry about over the next few days.

Ken

[HeatherInFlorida]

We're very busy pushing that thing into the Gulf. All the computer model tracks from the (a/o 11 am Sat.) now have it off the coast of Tampa, so we'll keep working on it. Nobody in Florida deserves yet another hit.

[Host Walt]

I have "unstuck" both hurricane threads but they are both available for continued discussion.