PDA

View Full Version : TS Kyle


CasaSmith
September 25th, 2008, 11:01 PM
We leave on Saturday on the Jewel of Seas to NE and Canada. I saw the TS Kyle is headed in that direction.

What are they expecting weather wise and when? That is what are they saying the weather will be bad and how long.

Trying to see if they are going to change are port of calls.

Thanks,:confused:

sapper1
September 26th, 2008, 06:42 AM
We leave on Saturday on the Jewel of Seas to NE and Canada. I saw the TS Kyle is headed in that direction.

What are they expecting weather wise and when? That is what are they saying the weather will be bad and how long.

Trying to see if they are going to change are port of calls.

Thanks,:confused:
The forecast as of five minutes ago in the Saint John area is for 20 to 40 kilometer per hour winds on Saturday morning and 40 to 60 Kilometer per hour winds Saturday afternoon, with heavy rain, thunder storms etc. Temperature will be a balmy 18 degrees celcius.

MonaCD
September 26th, 2008, 08:27 AM
From the Canadian Hurricane Centre

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/hurricane/track_e.html

TROPICAL STORM KYLE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 AM ADT FRIDAY 26 SEPTEMBER 2008.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 AM ADT

... TROPICAL STORM KYLE CONTINUES TO DEVELOPE...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.00 AM ADT... TROPICAL STORM KYLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 N AND LONGITUDE 68.1 W... ABOUT 355 NAUTICAL MILES OR 660 KM EAST NORTHEAST OF COCKBURN BAHAMAS . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS... 83 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 994 MB. KYLE IS MOVING NORTH AT 14 KNOTS... 26 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
SEP 26 3.00 AM 25.2N 68.1W 994 45 83
SEP 26 3.00 PM 27.9N 68.5W 992 55 102
SEP 27 3.00 AM 30.8N 68.8W 988 60 111
SEP 27 3.00 PM 34.3N 68.6W 984 65 120
SEP 28 3.00 AM 38.5N 67.6W 980 70 130
SEP 28 3.00 PM 42.1N 66.5W 987 65 120
SEP 29 3.00 AM 45.9N 64.3W 997 50 93
SEP 29 3.00 PM 48.7N 61.6W 997 50 93
SEP 30 3.00 AM 50.9N 57.8W 1000 45 83
SEP 30 3.00 PM 51.8N 53.7W 1000 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 01 3.00 AM 52.3N 49.1W 1000 45 83 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO BE UPDATED FOR THE MARITMES.
NO WARNINGS ISSUED YET.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR LOCATION OF KYLE.
NO WARNINGS ISSUED YET.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST.
CIRCULATION CENTRE DIFFCULT TO DISCERN. HOWEVER QUICKSCAT
SHOWS GOOD APPRXIMATE 00Z POSITION. HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT PROVIDES SURFACE WINDS AND CENTRAL PRESSURE.

B. PROGNOSTIC
WE SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM MIAMI'S TRACK THIS EARLY IN THE GAME ESPECIALLY SINCE ALL MODELS SHOW GOOD CONCENSUS. EXPECT 70 KNOT HURRICANE CROSSING INTO OUR RESPONSE ZONE. TRANSITION BEGINS THEREAFTER AS KYLE CROSSES NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM. HOW RAPIDLY KYLE WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE NOVA SCOTIA COAST IS PROBLEMATIC DUE TO COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. SUSPECT THAT THERE WILL BE DECOUPLING WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AT 1000 FEET AT LEAST. HENCE IT IS POSSIBLE THAT KYLE WILL PRODUCE HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS WHEN IT REACHES LANDFALL. THEREAFTER KYLE WILL WEAKEN DUE FRICTIONAL RETARDATION BEFORE CROSSING INTO THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE MONDAY MORNING.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
GIVEN KYLE'S CURRENT TRACK.. WIND WILL BE THE ISSUE FOR NOVA
SCOTIA AND THE EASTERN HALF OF PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT OVER NORTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND. RAIN WILL BE
THE MAIN ISSUE FOR NEW BRUNSWICK AND WESTERN PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND. RAIN WELL AHEAD OF KYLE WILL DROP 40 MM AND LESS OVER NEW BRUNSWICK UP TO SATURDAY EVENING.. MOSTLY DUE TO THE MOISTURE REMANTS OF A LOW PRESSURE CENTRE OVER THE CAROLINAS. MOISTURE FROM THIS LOW IS DRIVEN NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER RIDGE. NEEDLESS TO SAY.. IT IS THIS WESTERN FLANK WHICH WILL GUIDE KYLE. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE EXACT AMOUNTS BUT KYLE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL 50 MM SINCE KYLE WILL BE MOVING NEARLY 25 KNOTS AS IT PASSES THROUGH
THE MARITIMES.

D. MARINE WEATHER
GIVEN THE SPEED OF KYLE.. OUR WIND RADII FORECAST MAY BE A
BIT EARLY WITH ARRIVAL OF SURFACE WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT. AS MORE DATA BECOMES AVAIBLE.. WE WILL SHARPEN
THE PENCIL ON THESE RADII.

I'd say there's a good chance your cruise will be affected in some way by Kyle but will have already gone by Saint John and Halifax by the time you get to those ports. I'd say bring your rain jacket and your bonine, you're in for a wet and bumpy ride.

sapper1
September 27th, 2008, 05:53 AM
The morning paper says that the storm will hit Saint John directly on Sunday with sustained winds of 90 km per hour with gusts to 120 km. This will be combined with heavy rainfall.

VicKen
September 29th, 2008, 10:51 AM
Hope Sapper1, Acey and our other canadian cruise friends are OK after a visit from Kyle. We here in Texas are still trying to get over Ike - one of our group who sail your way next week lives in Houston and just got power back but at least they still have a house to get power to.

sapper1
September 29th, 2008, 02:21 PM
Hope Sapper1, Acey and our other canadian cruise friends are OK after a visit from Kyle. We here in Texas are still trying to get over Ike - one of our group who sail your way next week lives in Houston and just got power back but at least they still have a house to get power to.
It seems that the south shore of Nova Scotia bore the brunt of Kyle. Elsewhere it didn't amount to much. Saint John got some strong winds but escaped the heavy rainfall that would have caused so much grief. Hanna caused a major amount of water damage here a few weeks ago.
It was so nice of you to be concerned.:)