Hurricane Katia

[Hurricane Expert]

Katia sucked in dry air last night which disrupted the circulation and resulted in a sizeable loss of strength. An new larger eye has formed and it is on the road to making a big comeback. Models are still sticking with the well west of Bermuda and east of the U.S. coast forecast.

[CoachTerry14]

[nittanyliongirl02]

Thanks....that's good news for me....hope nothing becomes of that new formation!

[Hurricane Expert]

I posted a few great satellite pics of Katia with my forecasts. Katia is now a classic hurricane. I would surely assume that NHC will upgrade to major at 5pm.

[taylorc83]

we are leaving outta FLL on Sunday do you see anything else out there for next week? We are going on the eastern side.

[nittanyliongirl02]

This may sound stupid, but what is the difference between an "ensemble model", and the "computer models" when you are looking at storm paths?

What do we think are the odds for Invest 95??

[CoachTerry14]

Originally Posted by nittanyliongirl02

what do we think are the odds for invest 95??

60%

shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located about 600 miles southwest of the southern cape
verde islands has changed little in organization during the past
several hours. However...environmental conditions appear favorable
for a tropical depression to form during the next day or two as
this disturbance moves westward or west-northwestward at around 15
mph. This system has a high chance...60 percent...of becoming a
tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

[CoachTerry14]

Originally Posted by nittanyliongirl02

This may sound stupid, but what is the difference between an "ensemble model", and the "computer models" when you are looking at storm paths?

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens...ns_detbak.html

[taylorc83]

Ok Now I'm sooo worried about Invest 95 I'm leaving on Sunday out of FLL. UGH

[Hurricane Expert]

Originally Posted by Host Terry

60%

shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located about 600 miles southwest of the southern cape
verde islands has changed little in organization during the past
several hours. However...environmental conditions appear favorable
for a tropical depression to form during the next day or two as
this disturbance moves westward or west-northwestward at around 15
mph. This system has a high chance...60 percent...of becoming a
tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

95 is a depression and will be a storm soon.... NHC is a little slow.

[Hurricane Expert]

Originally Posted by nittanyliongirl02

This may sound stupid, but what is the difference between an "ensemble model", and the "computer models" when you are looking at storm paths?

What do we think are the odds for Invest 95??

computer models are just forecasts from computers. There are many different ones. Some are much better than others. This is the reason that I don't like the "spaghetti plots" since they can give a false impression of where the storm is going.

Ensembles take one model and introduce a slight change in atmospheric conditions at the beginning of the model run. This is done to see the possible different tracks that a tropical cyclone may take.

[brfcareok]

My wife and 2 friends got off the ship this morning (the RCCL Enchantment). They were in tears. She said it was chaotic on the ship as they were warned of rought seas and so ship would leave from Baltimore early. Estimated 15 to 20 foot seas and very high winds on the return. She said it was bad GOING from Baltimore - thus her fears of an awful trip back.

So, I spent almost $1500 on 3 coach one-way fares home for them and I hope to see if RCCL will allow us to collect on the insurance they bought from RCCL. The insurance was sold to us by RCCL for such contingencies so I hope it is covered and we get a future RCCL cruise or credit (we are long time RCCL customers). In fact, we have another cruise booked already for November.

If anyone has information on how RCCL handles these situations please let me know. If RCCL monitors these boards they can email me at fanzibar@yahoo.com with instructions.

Thanks all...and if anyone happends to have taken that reurn trip to Baltimore north of Katia I would LOVE to know how bad it is!!!

[trophy_23]

We are sitting on the tarmac in Toronto right now as all flights in and out of NYC have been suspended. Bad thunderstorm activity, which I can only assume are related to this storm?

[pk1]

I'm hoping Bayonne to Bermuda will be a cool cruise by Sat.