When To Book Airfare

When is the best time, prior to a cruise, to book airfare? We're cruising in September, with San Juan being the departure point.

Thanks for your advice!

I always book anything that can be cancelled, BEFORE booking airfare! Since plane tickets usually can't be cancelled and refunded, and can cost a bundle to make changes, book everything else 1st....then search for the airfare that you can live with!

Usually the farther in advance you book the lower the airfare. It sometimes takes alot of shopping around to find good airfares. Right now most airlines have not released fares for September 2013 yet as it is too far away. They should come out soon though.

I always book anything that can be cancelled, BEFORE booking airfare! Since plane tickets usually can't be cancelled and refunded, and can cost a bundle to make changes, book everything else 1st....then search for the airfare that you can live with!

Southwest is usually the best deal since they don't charge a change fee if you have to move your trip. Also they do not charge for luggage. And I believe I saw that they are now flying to San Juan. If you call them, they'll usually tell what date they'll start selling for the next available time period.

I usually try to lock in prices as soon as I can. Southwest will issue a travel credit to you if the price goes down. But you might need to purchase the tickets as two one-ways in case only one leg of your trip goes down.

Southwest is usually the best deal since they don't charge a change fee if you have to move your trip. Also they do not charge for luggage. And I believe I saw that they are now flying to San Juan. If you call them, they'll usually tell what date they'll start selling for the next available time period.

 

I usually try to lock in prices as soon as I can. Southwest will issue a travel credit to you if the price goes down. But you might need to purchase the tickets as two one-ways in case only one leg of your trip goes down.

Southwest will begin service to San Juan starting next year.

Usually the farther in advance you book the lower the airfare. It sometimes takes alot of shopping around to find good airfares. Right now most airlines have not released fares for September 2013 yet as it is too far away. They should come out soon though.

Southwest is usually the best deal since they don't charge a change fee if you have to move your trip. Also they do not charge for luggage. And I believe I saw that they are now flying to San Juan. If you call them, they'll usually tell what date they'll start selling for the next available time period.

 

I usually try to lock in prices as soon as I can. Southwest will issue a travel credit to you if the price goes down. But you might need to purchase the tickets as two one-ways in case only one leg of your trip goes down.

We're sailing out of San Juan next March. It will be the 4th year in a row that we have done so. It is usually during college spring break season so we end up paying a little more for flights. Because of this experience, I know how much we should expect to pay. I just booked our flights to San Juan this past Saturday. The prices for the return flight are not down to where they should be yet so I'm still waiting to book those. With all this being said, I have found the best prices to be had at about 5 months out. I see you are in Ohio. So you have an idea of what you might have to pay, we fly out of Rochester, NY and I expect to pay about $500 round trip. Right now, R.T. from Columbus on our dates is in that same price range. During a less busy time, you should be able to fly for a lot less than that.

I check Southwest for most of my trips and it's rare that I find it the cheapest price, unless I am checking two bags (which is rare).

we got 4 free roundtrip flights so far from their credit card. Plus we check in 3 bags each time to travel with them. I haven't flight with any other airlines since.

Right now, US Air is at around $480 per person roundtrip out of Cleveland.

JetBlue also allows to rebook without penalty if price drops. I know we're both on the same cruise and my plan is to book as soon as tickets are available and then monitor price drops accordingly.

Make sure that you book to go to SJU the day BEFORE your cruise. That's one port that's just far enough out to really want the safety of the extra day. Besides, you will cut your stress level down in a big way.

Plenty of good places to stay a night in San Juan and the food is good too! :)

Southwest is usually the best deal since they don't charge a change fee if you have to move your trip. Also they do not charge for luggage. And I believe I saw that they are now flying to San Juan. If you call them, they'll usually tell what date they'll start selling for the next available time period.

 

That's a common misconception. Sometimes they are cheaper, sometimes not. Maybe they are usually the best deal for your home airport and/or for the cities you frequently fly to etc. But I have yet to book a ticket and find Southwest to be cheapest; usually they are $100 or so MORE. True, they don't charge a change fee, but I'd have to change a lot of travel dates to make it worth paying $100 more each time. YMMV

Usually the farther in advance you book the lower the airfare. It sometimes takes alot of shopping around to find good airfares. Right now most airlines have not released fares for September 2013 yet as it is too far away. They should come out soon though.

Airlines use very sophisticated "yield management" systems in setting fares. These involve numerous computer algorithms that measure demand, economic conditions, oil and processed fuel prices and futures, labor rates, equipment utilization, competition characteristics, historic performance on given routes and dates, various other operating cost elements, and many other factors. The aim of these systems is to generate as much revenue on every flight as the market will bear.

When you buy a ticket in November for a flight the following September or October, many of these cost components are unknown or highly uncertain from the airlines' perspective. What will the price of Jet-A fuel be ten months from now? Will Southwest enter a market (e.g. SJU) or will somebody exit? How will negotiations with the mechanics go in June?

Because of this uncertainty, in many cases the airlines will "hedge" against unknown costs by assuming that they will be greater than predicted. If they charge you $300 for a ticket in November and lo and behold the price of fuel spikes, or the mechanics threaten to strike if they don't all get a condo in Boca, so that the airline's costs for your seat are $305, somebody in the yield management staff will have some splainin to do.

Of course if fuel cost hikes don't materialize, or the mechanics agree to roll over and play dead, then your $300 fare might be profitable. But "might be" are words that accountants/airline CEOs (often the same) just hate, so guess how they behave?

And, of course, you don't have the use of that $300 for eleven months, when you could be spending it on something useful. Or not.

The airlines' computers are really fast. They can - and do - change fares every day, sometimes several times in one day. Airline X throws a sale, and before you've read the press release every other airline's computers have matched the fare. Airline Y decides to charge you ten bucks for a pillow and badda bing, it's sawbuck city on everybody else. You've seen that happen, right? If you watched the prices of oil futures and watched airfares simultaneously, you'd be amazed at how much in synch they move.

So assuming that airfares are lowest right when the schedules are released is risky behavior. The best price - for you - will be when the risk/reward ratio is in your favor, i.e. when you think the price is tolerable. Trying to time the market is something most investment advisers will tell you is a fool's game.

This is a common misconception and frequently untrue.

 

Airlines use very sophisticated "yield management" systems in setting fares. These involve numerous computer algorithms that measure demand, economic conditions, oil and processed fuel prices and futures, labor rates, equipment utilization, competition characteristics, historic performance on given routes and dates, various other operating cost elements, and many other factors. The aim of these systems is to generate as much revenue on every flight as the market will bear.

 

When you buy a ticket in November for a flight the following September or October, many of these cost components are unknown or highly uncertain from the airlines' perspective. What will the price of Jet-A fuel be ten months from now? Will Southwest enter a market (e.g. SJU) or will somebody exit? How will negotiations with the mechanics go in June?

 

Because of this uncertainty, in many cases the airlines will "hedge" against unknown costs by assuming that they will be greater than predicted. If they charge you $300 for a ticket in November and lo and behold the price of fuel spikes, or the mechanics threaten to strike if they don't all get a condo in Boca, so that the airline's costs for your seat are $305, somebody in the yield management staff will have some splainin to do.

 

Of course if fuel cost hikes don't materialize, or the mechanics agree to roll over and play dead, then your $300 fare might be profitable. But "might be" are words that accountants/airline CEOs (often the same) just hate, so guess how they behave?

 

And, of course, you don't have the use of that $300 for eleven months, when you could be spending it on something useful. Or not.

 

The airlines' computers are really fast. They can - and do - change fares every day, sometimes several times in one day. Airline X throws a sale, and before you've read the press release every other airline's computers have matched the fare. Airline Y decides to charge you ten bucks for a pillow and badda bing, it's sawbuck city on everybody else. You've seen that happen, right? If you watched the prices of oil futures and watched airfares simultaneously, you'd be amazed at how much in synch they move.

 

So assuming that airfares are lowest right when the schedules are released is risky behavior. The best price - for you - will be when the risk/reward ratio is in your favor, i.e. when you think the price is tolerable. Trying to time the market is something most investment advisers will tell you is a fool's game.

I swear I have read that before? :)