Weather Question

How accurate is a 5 day forecast, or even less, on weather.com or any local weather service for Alaska?

We can always wait until a few days before we leave to decide what we will really need according to the forecast, if it's pretty accurate at that point, unless it can be " way off".

We usually just check the weather before we leave, no mater where we go and just want to see if it's pretty accurate for Alaska.

For Alaska, I usually don't trust the report more than 48 hours out... But I'm a bit of a skeptic...

Five days out is not very accurate.

Broad-brush picture (e.g. low/moderate/high chance of rain and comparatively temp - higher, lower, or about the same as today) are usually fairly accurate ~72hrs out across the PNW. Amount of rain, precise temps are as often as not wrong even 36 hours out though. Having spent much more time in the BC to Oregon parts than SE Alaska I'm quite willing to believe AKS' 48hr threshold for further north to be more accurate than my 72hr.

On any AK cruise, you should take sufficient layers to handle a significant weather shift to good or bad from what you're seeing on the reports before you leave home. Or at least be armed with enough extra budget than when you find 70 & sunny has become 50 and rainy, you can afford to buy extra layers on the ship (port prices will be less - there are some pretty cheap fleeces & rain jackets - but if you're cruising Glacier Bay and need more stuff it's pay ship price or be cold!!!)

The fun thing about the weather is that it can drastically change just within the day. The forecast might say "30% chance of rain, high of 60" and you could experience pouring rain, gorgeous sunshine and everything in between. Boy Scouts know their stuff - Be Prepared. =)

Even the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center knows better than to try to look out more than 3 days (although you can loop up to 14 days in what I call "Science Fiction Mode"). To gauge the accuracy at that range screen clip a series of days of the 96 hour map and put it side by side with the current conditions and see how close they are.

NOAA-OCP

My new toy is Windytv.com and you can hit the play button at the bottom to animate the next week or so.

The big problem forecasting along the coast is the effects that happen in very localized spots due to topography or orographic effects and are difficult to predict exactly. The forecasts are broad generalizations but a given spot can be completely different. Example - in Puget Sound area the Olympic Mts. cause heavy rain in Forks and almost arid conditions in Sequim and nearby a persistent band of rain called the convergence zone just north of Seattle. These same phenomenon occur all along the coastal ranges and into Alaska.

Heck, I live in Anchorage, and, sometimes, don't even trust the next day forecast. Interesting if you watch local weather on ABC, NBC, and, CBS, they all can be different!

Susan in Anchorage :)

On any AK cruise, you should take sufficient layers to handle a significant weather shift to good or bad from what you're seeing on the reports before you leave home. Or at least be armed with enough extra budget than when you find 70 & sunny has become 50 and rainy, you can afford to buy extra layers on the ship (port prices will be less - there are some pretty cheap fleeces & rain jackets - but if you're cruising Glacier Bay and need more stuff it's pay ship price or be cold!!!)

I agree with martincath. You really need to pack to handle the extremes (be able to dress in layers, put on or take off) for any given day or be willing to pay for something in town or on the ship. It does help to look at the average high and low for the month you are traveling just to get an idea what the weather may be like.

Our first Alaskan cruise was the middle of May and we had highs in the mid 60's with lows in the upper 20's. At Glacier Bay we wore hats, gloves and scarves on deck. The one year my SiL went, August I believe, the highs were in the 90's.Normal high for August low to mid 60's.

Good luck and have fun.

I don't trust the forecast at home!

Most places a five day forecast is not very accurate. In Alaska my experience is that weather can change in a split second.

The key is to bring a range of clothing with you so that you can enjoy your time in port regardless of the weather.

Keith

AHHH!:') It's stressful,packing for an AK cruise in my carryon suitcase....:D Those little 21" suitcases have accompanied us to many places.......I have lots of layers packed,even a couple of short sleeve t's (but I have no illusion I'll use those for anything but a baselayer) we leave on the 30th of April,and all the forceasts call for high in the mid 50's with chances of rain....so at best it's gonna be chilly..... But I can always use the ship laundry service if needed so I should stop stressing,or if I need more it's part of the fun to buy a souvenir jacket from some port..... I have my most important gear, rainpants,raincoat and gloves.

I would never rely on any "forecasts" in Alaska my packing is always the SAME, a wide range of attire from t shirts to hat and gloves. My "Alaska uniform" (a fellow passenger nick named this for me almost 20 years ago :) ) has a sweatshirt, and a light lined jacket. I never take shorts but throwing in a pair takes no room.

I haven't done formal nights in over 10 years, and never waste my time on food, in Alaska- I'm there for "Alaska", which is MY only priority. :) I'm always comfortable and never not have the attire I need. Laundry is my friend. :)

I take 1 24" bag, which fits everything. Ease of travel is my priority. This will again be the case on my trip next month which is for 5 weeks.