Tropical Storm Ernesto

Latest from winderground.com:

Since the Hurricane Hunters found Ernesto's strongest winds to be near 14°N, I expect that Martinique, Dominica, St. Lucia, and Barbados will see the strongest winds on Friday during Ernesto's passage through the islands. Wind shear is expected to remain moderate, 10 - 20 knots, through Friday, then fall to the low range through Tuesday, according to the 2 pm EDT run of the SHIPS model. Given Ernesto's poor organization, I give a 20% chance that the storm will degenerate into a tropical wave on Friday. If this happens, the storm will still be capable of bringing winds of 50 mph to the Windward Islands, though--and will still be capable of regenerating into a tropical storm in the Western Caribbean. Once Ernesto clears the Lesser Antilles, the reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. [/b][/b]The more westerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Honduras on Monday night, is being discounted by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, it is possible that the storm's outer spiral bands will cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--only the HWRF clearly shows Ernesto reaching hurricane strength over the next five days. So, the official NHC forecast of a hurricane near Jamaica on Monday is an aggressive one. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week. Stay tuned.

We're on the Dream 8/4, sure hope it heads North. Sure will be interesting to see what Carnival does or does not do in the next day or so.

..... Stay tuned.

Thanks. We will

The storm was once projected to pass directly over Jamaica and now appears to be tracking well south. Don't those silly storms know about the predictions?

If a bad hurricane is coming and you are booked on a ship do you have to go or lose all your money? I know they try to cruise around hurricanes, but I have also heard lots of folks say that it is a really rough ride. Just curious, thanks.

If a bad hurricane is coming and you are booked on a ship do you have to go or lose all your money? I know they try to cruise around hurricanes, but I have also heard lots of folks say that it is a really rough ride. Just curious, thanks.

Depends on if you have *sorry* travel insurance with a "cancel for any reason" clause.

We travel often during this season, knowing the risks, but don't worry about it. We know how HUGE the investments that CCL and the other lines have in their ships are and that they'd not put them in danger, so we figure worst case we get a few days of rockin and rollin at sea or that we park in Nassau - in any case, we aren't at work and we ARE on vacation, so its all good to us! And those times it works perfectly? We get a bargain. :p

Yes you have to go unless you have a special insurance plan that gets you out of a cruise for this.

The ship will go around and change course and do whatever they need to do to avoid it yes you could get rougher seas because of such storms but not think you can get out of a cruise for that.

I'm sailing out on the Legend on Sunday. My first cruise. I'm watching this storm closely and it will be interesting to see what happens.

If a bad hurricane is coming and you are booked on a ship do you have to go or lose all your money? I know they try to cruise around hurricanes, but I have also heard lots of folks say that it is a really rough ride. Just curious, thanks.

Carnival has been known to change their port sequence, or drop ports and add sea days, or go to different ports. I think you would be hard pressed to find an insurance policy that would reimburse you for canceling a cruise based on a hurricane in the gulf if your ship sails with a modified itinerary. Now if Carnival cancels their cruise, that would be another story.

PS...have a condo on Cedar Creek and keep my boat there. Fantastic lake, best kept secret in East Texas.

We do have insurance and I am not worried about this particular hurricane, but we do sail in 2 weeks and I would sure hate to be sea sick the whole trip!! This is our first time to sail during hurricane season.

PS...have a condo on Cedar Creek and keep my boat there. Fantastic lake, best kept secret in East Texas.

We love it out here and are so happy we have water this year!!

Sarge, That's a serious looking blob coming off the African coast. A couple weeks out from crossing the Atl. Looks like August is about to get active.

We're on the Dream 8/4, sure hope it heads North. Sure will be interesting to see what Carnival does or does not do in the next day or so.

Hold on now - the Liberty (also sailing on the 4th) does NOT want this thing to track north! :rolleyes:

We leave on Freedom Sunday. The ship's itinerary would have us sailing head-on into Ernesto Tuesday. When do you think they would tell you of modification to trip.

A bad day at sea is better then a good day at work!!

It will pass....

We leave on Freedom Sunday. The ship's itinerary would have us sailing head-on into Ernesto Tuesday. When do you think they would tell you of modification to trip.

 

A bad day at sea is better then a good day at work!!

Ernesto could still fall apart but you would probably still have rainy days. I would guess they will await more development before they announce contingencies.

Latest from winderground.com:

 

Since the Hurricane Hunters found Ernesto's strongest winds to be near 14°N, I expect that Martinique, Dominica, St. Lucia, and Barbados will see the strongest winds on Friday during Ernesto's passage through the islands. Wind shear is expected to remain moderate, 10 - 20 knots, through Friday, then fall to the low range through Tuesday, according to the 2 pm EDT run of the SHIPS model. Given Ernesto's poor organization, I give a 20% chance that the storm will degenerate into a tropical wave on Friday. If this happens, the storm will still be capable of bringing winds of 50 mph to the Windward Islands, though--and will still be capable of regenerating into a tropical storm in the Western Caribbean. Once Ernesto clears the Lesser Antilles, the reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. [/b][/b]The more westerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Honduras on Monday night, is being discounted by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, it is possible that the storm's outer spiral bands will cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--only the HWRF clearly shows Ernesto reaching hurricane strength over the next five days. So, the official NHC forecast of a hurricane near Jamaica on Monday is an aggressive one. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week. Stay tuned.

ahh another fan of Dr. Jeff Masters' blog.. If I'm not here I'm there. Especially if cruising during hurricane season.

Yeah that's me. I should have given him direct credit. Glad you did. I just noticed a bad typo. It's WUNDERGROUND.COM

not winderground. Mea culpa.

We're on the Dream 8/4, sure hope it heads North. Sure will be interesting to see what Carnival does or does not do in the next day or so.

We are on the Dream also 8/4, was so looking forward to Cozumel and Belize, I wonder if Carnival will now go on the east side of Caribbean!

Sarge, That's a serious looking blob coming off the African coast. A couple weeks out from crossing the Atl. Looks like August is about to get active.

Right now the NHC gives that a 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation.

I'm keeping an eye on this one as we sail Aug. 25!

Maggie

Living in central florida, i prefer national hurricane center or baynews9.com. it shows that they expect this to be a cat 1 by monday. It will be a wait and see game.

Living in central florida, i prefer national hurricane center or baynews9.com. it shows that they expect this to be a cat 1 by monday. It will be a wait and see game.

Same here. The local channels are usually a bit more reliable Channel 8 specifically I think was the only one to predict Charlie's turn a few hours before it happened instead of 20 minutes like the other channels.

We leave on Freedom Sunday. The ship's itinerary would have us sailing head-on into Ernesto Tuesday. When do you think they would tell you of modification to trip.

 

A bad day at sea is better then a good day at work!!

We, too, will be on the Freedom Sunday. Depending on the track and speed of the storm...maybe flip flop Grand Cayman and Jamaica? Just wondering...:confused:

Right now the NHC gives that a 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation.

 

I'm keeping an eye on this one as we sail Aug. 25!

 

Maggie

I'm also hoping for clear and beautiful weather for the 25!!

We, too, will be on the Freedom Sunday. Depending on the track and speed of the storm...maybe flip flop Grand Cayman and Jamaica? Just wondering...:confused:

Grand Cayman is a tender. On a GOOD day it's breezy and some ships don't make. I can hardly imagine getting there when the seas are choppy.