JMAE

Since this thread was discussing future fleet. I think newer smaller ships should be part of the plan. As I stated, if any cruise line added smaller ships with the technology of the mega ships the smaller ships would be less expensive to operate in a soft market. Because they would be easier fill closer to capacity compared to a mega ship and have a higher occupancy rate and margin. Yes, the mega ships make a larger "profit" in the current booming market, but when a market softening occurs, unless they can fill the mega ship, they will be expensive for a cruise line to maintain compared to a smaller ship with the same technology.

Using your example if a mega ship sails at 60% cap the cruise line would not produce an income to cover the expense for that sailing. For a cruise line to make their projected 15% profit it must be filled to their 100% cap. In your example the 40% passenger loss on a sailing would reduce their projected income from reduced fares and onboard spending by that percentage. If a cruise line invested in new smaller ships with similar technology of the mega ships, the smaller ships would be cheaper to sail due to the size (less fuel), less maintenance and operation costs due to reduced activities, dining options, etc. and far fewer staff (Carnival Excel class crew size 1,735, Carnival Spirit class crew size 930). I know one thing; the market will be the driving force and if the numbers show large number of seasoned cruises moving to other non-mainstream cruise lines, changes will occur. No cruise line can survive with new guest only, that is why loyalty programs exist. This is just my guess, but based on your example of 60% cap, I would bet the current Fantasy and Spirit classes would have a lower percentage of loss vs a mega ship. Since they are over 20 years old, they probably bought and paid for many years ago. I understand they may be considered an asset for securing loans.

Yes, how the cruise industry makes money. If a ship sails with empty staterooms/berths they cannot make up that lost revenue. With the current demand CCL recently hit 100 capacity, fleet wide. Their (and all cruise lines) next goal should be to sail at >100 capacity fleet wide. Since you appear to be a long-time stockholder you should understand the buy recommendation is a prediction and their targeted value may or may not come true. Remember Enron, all was good until it wasn't. Not saying any cruise company is equivalent to Enron, but things are all good until something happens like economic downturn, world unrest, and we cannot forget what happened during the pandemic two weeks turned into a year. and all the positive outlooks turn negative.

I agree, large ships are more profitable when sailing full. As I said in a market downturn it may become difficult to fill the mega ships to 100% capacity. Yes, the cruise industry has a good forecast. There were about 20 million worldwide passengers in 2022, about 31 million in 2023 and the forecast for 2024 is about 36 million or about a 5 million increase from 2023. The 2025, 2026 and 2027 industry forecast slows to an increase to about a 1 million passengers year over year, which falls back in line to the yearly increases prior to the shutdown. Based on their forecast, demand is going to soften (downturn) in the coming years compared to this year. I believe coupled with USA household (HH) credit card debt of $1.13 trillion as reported in Q4/2023 (not including vehicles or mortgages), which is an increase of $50 billion from the previous report. So, based on the industry forecast and the current economic conditions I believe the market will soften in the coming year(s) and it will take more for cruise lines to fill their ships, mega ships will be more difficult to fill compared to their smaller fleet of ships. Assuming a full ship, 100% capacity, the industry states about 70% of cruise line income comes from fares and 30% from onboard spending. At 100% cap. they make about 15% "profit", so if the ship does not sail at 100% cap. it reduces the 15% projection. In the current market, ships are being filled months prior to the sailing and all is good. However, we will know when the market softens when we start seeing mainstream cruise lines discounting sailings close to their sailing dates. I enjoy cruising and hope the industry remains strong, but think more changes are coming as berths increase and the cruise lines fight for the consumer's dollars. Changes may include ship size, charging for eating in the MDR (this transition started with a charge for additional meals), and charging for shows, etc., remember room service was once free 24/7.

Totally agree. Since cruise demand is high, upgrades are not like they once were.

Just found this in CCL's FAQ for the transition to the current VIFP program back in 2013. So depending the timeline and if they transition in the same manner, you may be okay.

Where is that stated, CCL's states:

The industry is anticipating strong growth for the next few years. When we see price moderation, we will know the cruise lines are forecasting a softening of the market. Currently, the market is strong, and demand is very high. When there is a market downturn it may become difficult to sail a fill the mega ships and the smaller ships may be more profitable since they would be able to fill them in a down market and their cost of operation is less. With that said, I believe CCLs has 9 cruise lines in their portfolio, with CCL being the largest and most attractive to new cruises due to price, departure ports, etc. In the future I believe CCL we come up with a corporate loyalty program to introduce CCL guests to their other brands (some with smaller ships) and CCL will build ships the market dictates and may include smaller ships to maintain their drive to the port marketing.

Glad we like to drink the ship's water.

I have used guaranteed a few times and never had a problem. We have also flown the same day before, but it was many years ago. I don't think we will ever do that again.

Per CCL the Pride's max draft is 26".

Yes, things can always happen. I assume some time was built into their current projected timeline to account for some delays. If nothing catastrophic or weather related occurs, they may achieve their goals at or ahead of their timeline.

Never happened to me.

USACE is stating they "expects to open a limited access channel 280' wide and 35" deep" by the end of the month and "restore port access to normal capacity" by the end of May. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers develops tentative timeline to reopen Fort McHenry Channel following Key Bridge collapse > U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Headquarters > News Release Article View

During JH's FB video today, he said for the guests on the Pride repositioning cruise not to change a thing yet. I think they know more than what is being reported. During a news conference with unified command, it was said that they are attempting to establish a 35' deep channel adjacent to the Dali. They indicated 35' would allow some container ship to navigate the channel. It would also allow Spirit class ships to navigate the channel, since their max draft is 26'.