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About pokerpro5

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    Cool Cruiser

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    Los Angeles

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  1. Remember when I said in early 2020 that people should simply charge back their cruise fares via their credit cards, and not count on NCL to make this right? I got all kinds of hate, was called all kinds of nasty names, and was told I was a dishonest piece of trash. Always take care of yourself first, and never worry about what big corporations want you to do. You will always get shafted in the end if you don't take non-standard matters into your own hands.
  2. They can't cruise again until they solve the problem as to what to do about dangerous infectious diseases breaking out onboard. Up until 2020, it was assumed they could simply dock at the nearest port and get these people taken care of. Now we've learned that's not true. Ports will refuse ships with dangerous viruses on them! Until this can be rectified, I can't see cruising starting again. There is no easy solution to this. The countries flagging these ships have already stated they do NOT want this responsibility.
  3. There is just about zero chance that they sail at higher prices, given the MUCH reduced demand. You are correct that the past will have little to do with future prices, given this unprecedented situation, but something predictable is the fact that it will be cheaper after final payment date -- perhaps dirt cheap. There is zero chance that there's going to be incredible demand for cruising once this is all over. The public is terrified of cruising, and given the "older" population which typically cruises, that's exactly the people who will be most vulnerable and afraid.
  4. Hi, if you don't have a suite, I would suggest cancelling entirely and booking November 16 (the 90 day mark). It will NOT sell out (nobody wants to cruise now due to the coronavirus), and you will get a much better deal a month after final payment (the 50% penalty phase). You will also protect yourself against losing money in the case that NCL collapses before then, which is a real possibility.
  5. Agree. The "free drinks" package is a joke because they just jacked up the base price and charge you that BS mandatory "service charge" of 20% or whatever. Fortunately I don't drink so I just decline it. Also agree about the excursions. Even with $50 off they're a terrible value, and you're stuck in a large group usually. No thanks. I do my own excursions. The internet and the dining package are the only good "perks". I'm usually able to get them to upgrade the internet package to unlimited for a reasonable upcharge. Each ship has a different policy on that.
  6. NCL Escape West Caribbean from Miami 7 days, November (not Thanksgiving) $479 for balcony No single supplement charge (1 person was booked in room) Not a casino offer I said $249 earlier for an inside, but I was getting cruises confused. That was a previous cruise where I got an inside. This one I got a second balcony for $479 with no single supplement.
  7. Yes, all casinos have the edge and everyone will be a long time loser, unless they engage in what is known as "advantage play" (which requires a lot of work, knowledge, and painstaking analysis to pull off). However, cruise ship casinos (not just NCL) are notoriously bad, as their slots are tight, video poker machines have bad paytables, and table games have bad rules. Even the poker, which you play against others, is raked FAR more heavily than land-based casinos, to where I won't even bother playing despite usually weak competition. To those who enjoy gambling onboar
  8. lol what??? Of course they can reliably fill the ships after final payment. We're talking about 120 days, and 90 days in the 50% penalty phase. That's a fairly long time. They've been "filling the ship" this way for many years. The lower the price, the quicker the ship fills. For example, if they gave away cruises for $1, they could fill an entire ship within a matter of hours. Yes, that's obviously an extreme example, but to say they can't fill empty cabins by lowering prices 3 months before sailing is absurd. And yes, plenty of people farther than dri
  9. I don't disagree with you at all but wanted to point out that many (most?) of the cruising public have no idea you can get price drops. While we CCer's regard these things as common knowledge, I have found that even frequent cruisers among my acquaintances have no idea. I'm sure the cruise lines are counting on keeping most of the recipients of FCCs in ignorance regarding their eligibility for price drops. When NCL announced Peace of Mind I did assume prices would jump to cover their sudden generosity. A "free lunch" is always quite suspicious! Almost all of the substant
  10. Correct. Some of the so-called "last minute deals" promoted on the site are exactly this -- not-so-great deals which stuff you into the last few cabins left on the ship. That's why I advocate price-watching starting from the 90-day mark before sailing, as you will typically get the best prices between the 30-90 day mark prior to sailing, and there will be sufficient inventory to where you aren't stuck in the worst cabins on the ship. The problem is that a lot of people don't understand what truly is a "good deal" on a cruise ship. If you're paying anywhere near the pr
  11. I'm happy for you, but I hope you quit gambling in the NCL casino, because the odds are way, way against you -- far worse than their land-based counterparts. The NCL casino doesn't exist to give money away. Signed, A professional gambler
  12. There actually is a chance of double-dipping if NCL isn't careful (this commonly happens when large companies don't pay proper attention to chargebacks), but that's NCL's problem, not the consumer's. NCL needs to monitor chargebacks and take those people off the refund list. This is their job to do, and the consumer need not worry about this detail.
  13. Yes and no. The "market will bear" only half applies to cruising because of the final payment situation, which is different than any other travel payment model. Most other travel products you're either paying up front with little-to-no-refund ability (most airlines), or paying after-the-fact with free cancellation almost up until the service is delivered (most hotels). Cruises are in the middle of those two models. There's a long, free cancellation/re-pricing period (before final payment), and a long, high-penalty cancellation period (after final payment). This essen
  14. Well I'm glad you're only teasing and messing, but to answer what you wrote anyway... 1) Inside/Oceanview cabins are not "always" discounted at any time. The discounting can happen any time between 90 days prior to sailing and 1 day prior to sailing. I'd ballpark the best deals to come 30-60 days prior to sailing, but it varies. 2) While some of what I wrote occurs normally anyway, I had to repeat a lot of that information so people could coherently follow my logic regarding pricing, and when it is likely best to book (and worst to book). 3) Whatever occur
  15. I have been extensively been studying the cruise industry pricing model over the years, especially NCL, and have an excellent record regarding predicting pricing trends. Based upon my studies of the recent (pre-COVID-19) pricing scheme, as well as current prices, I have applied it to come up with a theory as to the way NCL will price cruises once everything restarts Be aware this is only a theory and not based upon any inside information, but I would be surprised if the actual situation turns out to be vastly different from what I have deduced. 1) Prices wil
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