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salty dingo

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Everything posted by salty dingo

  1. Inflated cruise fares would only occur if demand remained strong. This cruiser is totally done sailing for the foreseeable future, and I suspect I am not alone. So fewer ships combined with weak demand may not result in higher prices. In fact, if the prices did rise, demand would surely fall, and the business model of mass market cruising may no longer work. You can see it in the stock prices now, and I think they could fall a lot more.... perhaps to zero.
  2. Most of the experts I trust say it will be at least a year from now until there is a vaccine that we can actually receive at a clinic. One may be developed way before then, but trials take time to be 100% sure they are safe and effective, and then it takes time to mass produce and distribute them to every person. So Summer 2021 if we are lucky. If the cruise lines sail before there is a vaccine and we all have received it and let it take effect (that's a big IF) then they will most certainly have to implement social distancing measures. It is inconceivable there will packed ships - so how will the cruise lines make money? What will those social distancing measures look like? Sparsely populated sun decks? Reservations for the few tables left in the buffet? Reduced seating in the bars, restaurants, theaters, clubs (which were never that big to begin with?) Fewer seats on tenders? Which ports want a cruise ship to dock (and possibly infect an island with limited health services?) What about passengers who won't wear masks and are sneezing? Forget the chair hogs, we'll be talking about air hogs! How much of a fun ship will that be? I read a few comments to the effect "life is getting short, to heck with it, I'm going"... but I think they miss the point. They won't be going on the same cruise they had been on in the past. They will be going on a stripped-down, social-distancing cruise which has not even been disclosed in any detail yet. We don't know what we would be getting! I'm not sure folks have given much thought to what a cruise will be like going forward. It definitely will not be the same experience as it was.
  3. A little bewildering why they would set the start up date right at the beginning of the fall Flu season. Don't they know by now if the new virus is this active in the heat of summer it will be a supercharged hot mess come this Fall! Until there is a vaccine and we all have a chance to get it and let it work, it's risky to think about a cruise. If I were holding a booking and being strung along by the cruise line, I'd be pretty mad right now!
  4. I read the article in the Miami Herald. A key recommendation was reduced capacity. If this is actually implemented it will fundamentally alter the cruise business. Since the costs to run the ship are largely the same no matter how many guests are on board, the key to profitability has always been to pack the ships to the brim. If capacity is reduced, one of two results will occur: prices will rise sharply, or earnings (stock prices) will fall sharply. It's pretty simple. Actually both could happen. Prices may be low at first to lure scared cruisers back but it likely won't last unless the capacity controls never materialize. In that case, packed ships with social distancing protocols would make for a pretty miserable cruise experience. Especially in bad weather lots of people would have to be confined to the cabin at times. Not an appealing thought.
  5. I am hearing a lot about a recent rise in new cases. If anything affects the return to service date, I expect it would more likely be delayed than enacted sooner.
  6. You asked the right question. Nobody is sure. Cruise lines have a business model that depends on filling up ships to capacity. Deck, club, and bar space is limited, and spacing must increase. Lots of people who want to do what they want, when they want, will not be able to. What will be the answer? I'm waiting on shore to see. I won't even consider a cruise until I know what the deal will be, and we probably won't know that until after the reviews of the "new cruising world order" are.
  7. Masks are not an issue. Here's why: You can't sip a drink wearing one They still let viruses through for you to catch ill, but they do contain your sneezes and coughs so you do not spread your disease to others Tan lines on your face In all seriousness, there is not enough room on a ship for people to have adequate social distance and the cruise lines to be profitable offering affordable cruises. Until there is a vaccine I would not consider a cruise. No cruise, no mask, no problem.
  8. Every single day I am spammed with an "offer"... it got way past ridiculous. Today I have had enough and unsubscribed. Anyone else having this issue? Carnival is not alone here... NCL is spamming me too. They are next.
  9. That is a good way to look at it. There was a thread a while back and the stock had dropped into the mid 30s. People were debating if the OBC was worth the risk of owning the stock at that price (which was low at that time.) I concluded the risk was just too great to tie up $3,500 in CCL stock. Now, you may only be tying up $815 or so.... maybe that changes the calculus... but you can also look at it like this: You are risking over $800 for a $100 credit you cannot even use right now and there is no guarantee you can ever use the OBC or get you $800 back. I would not touch this with a 10 foot pole.
  10. You guys do realize that the price can drop to zero and never recover, right?
  11. They already did. That was the reason the entire stock market soared. Corp leaders are compensated for higher stock price, buybacks raise the price at the cost of debt. Party is over, no more easy money. Time to pay the piper.
  12. Dollar value of FCC will never change. What could happen is cruise fare inflation. For example, in order to get nervous cruisers back, the line offers more inclusive fares... All restaurants included, alcohol included, excursions included. That would push fares way up.
  13. I think PR medical infrastructure simply is too small to handle possible seriously ill people off the ships. Much better for pax if Florida takes that responsibility.
  14. Well just book one of the low deposit deals and do not lend the cruise line your money.
  15. That shareholder credit is pretty expensive, huh? It's probably a month or two before this bottoms, and is a buying opportunity. The costs to the company of idling the fleet are massive, could even wipe out shareholders if this virus lasts longer. Hopefully people wanting shareholder credit only owned 100 shares so won't be impacted much.
  16. It is about time to cancel all cruises. Too difficult to determine who can or cannot board, better that nobody does. No better place for virus infection than a cruise ship.
  17. I'm thinking it is a short matter of time before Carnival cancels all upcoming cruises. Too much liability given state dept warning.
  18. I've read nothing that suggests going on a Caribbean cruise right now is any more dangerous than hopping on plane or going pretty much anywhere out in public. That could change but until it does, no point in cancelling.
  19. Let me get this straight... they are going to refuse boarding due to THEIR policy, and not give a refund? That would be beyond stupid of them, because as others have said, it's the honor system versus losing thousands of $$.
  20. I recall a man estimated 60 years old exiting Spice H2O on Escape recently, around 11 am. He was in the hallway obviously confused and looking for a bathroom, apparently drunk. He wore swim shorts and feces were all over the back of his legs. I have no clue how soneone can lose control like that, and I wondered where he had smeared his excrement already... for sure I understand how norovirus spreads.
  21. We flew in to EWR early on a Sunday and were in line at Manhattan cruise terminal by 9:45. Took airtrain from terminal, then NJTransit to Penn Station, then cab to the pier. Train was $13 per person each way and cab was around 8-10 bucks per trip. Highly recommended and likely faster than a car, and way cheaper. Only downside is carrying bags on the train, but we pack pretty light nowadays.
  22. Beagles at airports I have seen are busting people for apples and sausages you brought back from Germany. Drug and bomb dogs exist but seem to be deployed to where the threats are. One point to mention are edibles... all the effect, zero smell, and nobody will be able to tell if your gummy bear is just candy by looking at it. Just don't allow any kids near it. Anybody who has been to California, Denver, or Vegas and taking advantage of the new legalities there will know what I mean.
  23. For us it was 250 minutes per cabin, any number of devices can use those minutes, but maybe just one at a time. I agree, sounds like no deal to me.
  24. If you like to drink, it is WAY less expensive for drink packages on MSC. There is more variety of packages too.
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