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About EscapeFromConnecticut

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    Cool Cruiser

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    Don: Yankees, Rush, New Orleans, James Lee Burke, L1011s

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  1. In addition, Canada is not somehow immune to COVID-19 - Toronto is back in lockdown, the prime minister is pushing everyone in the country to stay home, and there are no provinces free of trouble: https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-canada/canadas-atlantic-bubble-disintegrates-as-covid-19-cases-rise-idUSL1N2I91QW Again, folks, the problem isn't "governors," Fauci or the CDC. The problem is the virus. And so far, it's not going anywhere.
  2. The fascinating similarities between so many bankruptcies is the presence of crippling debt ... sometimes from LBOs, but very often from over-compensated executives who simply used the credit card to keep their $$ flowing in until the whole thing collapsed. Sounds mighty familiar to the cruise lines. If they make it out of the pandemic, they'll be saddled with five boatloads of debt. And that cannot be repaid by charging bargain fares mixed with quality service .... expect to pay more & get less.
  3. True - but August vastly understates the trend. It was going good by late March, when those identical posters were cheerfully assuring that cruising would restart May 1 or sooner. And then every month afterward, without fail. The factual evidence and neutral analysis have consistently pointed to "cruising will remain shut down for the foreseeable future" .... that has been the case since March, and remains so now. Reality check: The CDC still is the whipping boy for some folks, but it is not the enemy. COVID-19 is the enemy and for now it's going nowhere. Virus
  4. Nic6318 - All good points. You are right. Investing is neither Powerball nor roulette. And projecting the next year's outlook for a business may be neither science flawless, but it's not guesswork or Magic 8 Ball either. (In that way, it's a bit like forecasting the future of cruising during a global pandemic.) In the case of CCL, NCL or RCI, the mid-term future looks choppy at best. Still, there are some folks who decline to see that. They just won't. Oh well.
  5. Interesting. Will look forward to CC ensuring similar levels of decorum are enforced for posts referencing government agencies (including the CDC), maritime & personal injury attorneys, health authorities, environmentalists, governors and other politicians, TV personalities and the news media.
  6. Surely there were people regretting "missing a lowball buying opportunity" at the end of the run of TOYS, PAA or BBI. Will CCL be around by Q4 of '21? Stay tuned. But if anyone believes the company is edging toward a speedy recovery ... be sure to post actual evidence supporting such a theory. Compared to Jan of '20, it has a smaller fleet, vastly less revenue, a massive increase in debt and no prospect of any quick turnaround ahead. Under the circumstances, buying CCL seems on a par with shoveling $50 bills under a lawnmower and hoping it spits out gold ingots.
  7. That's certainly a possibility. Here's another: He knows the in-depth financial picture better than the analysts & financiers ... and perhaps has concluded he is aboard the corporate version of the Concordia.
  8. MsTabbyCats - can always count on you for thoughtful and intelligent posts. Cruise prices have to go up. And we can bank on seeing new fees, more high-pressure add-ons & upsells, etc. The cruise lines didn't only lose a fortune, they've also borrowed another fortune. No amount of refi will change the fact that this $$ has got to be paid back. So in addition to all of their usual operating & fixed expenses, they're gonna have to make an enormous new debt service nut, too. They're going to do it with fewer ships, lower capacity and less flexibility.
  9. right. And Disney just reduced its hours because the much-awaited grand reopening has been a disappointment. (They can open the gates, but no legislation will ever force customers to actually go) interesting that neither broadway nor mega-concerts was directly linked in any public way to outbreaks ... yet they're still closed down. Cruising, on the other hand, was second only to nursing homes as the "public face" of coronavirus risk. People who believe cruising can come back in the foreseeable future even a little bit like before ... just aren't coping with reality.
  10. No worries - Donald & Duffy earn Skymiles for every extra dollar on Carnival's Amex card. Truly, the thing about racking up gigundo debt during a devastating recession & massive industrywide contraction is: what could possibly go wrong?
  11. A senior Carnival exec resigning? Well, at least it's a start. Time for the next to wander up from the on-deck circle: "Now batting, Number Double Zero ... Christine, Christine ... Duffy, Duffy"
  12. Seabourn pax are a youth movement compared to HAL, which as you surely know is also a Carnival subsidiary. And which had a hideous performance (along with Princess) from late January through to the shutdown in March. Donald's wizardry was on full display for the world then. The key differences on Seabourn are the expectations & wealth of the passengers. One thing they will never be is the "guinea pig" cruisers for any badly thought-out return to sailing. Bank on that.
  13. All of the travel industry is crippled. But other than convention centers, the cruise lines may be the worst of the walking wounded. Interesting that Delta (and Southwest) are looking at longer-term customer satisfaction rather than just maximizing ticket sales for the short term. It's not easy for businesses to stand up to the phony "Americans" who refuse simple measures like masks and distancing ... but those two carriers are doing it, and leaving the middle seats open as well. Long term, the maskless "patriots" are a customer base that no company will really want. ht
  14. Good post. Clear thinking & honesty are much appreciated!
  15. True, we'll find out in November with this one: https://www.wlrn.org/2020-08-12/federal-judge-dismisses-challenge-to-key-west-cruise-ship-ballot-questions
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