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irzero

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Everything posted by irzero

  1. If only it was that simple we would all be millionaires. Sent from my SM-N975F using Tapatalk
  2. The US market is out of control. Until we see 6 months of earnings reports we are in for a wild ride. The market will have to reflect fundamentals at some point. I wouldnt buy anything now nothing is what I'd consider to be cheap now given how little we know about the world economy. The stimulus wont do anything to keep businesses from going under. The demand after all of this will be much lower which will reflect in more job losses and that is how a downturn starts. 20$ oil means nobody in US shale is going to be employed. Stimulus or not. Sent from my SM-N975F using Tapatalk
  3. Yes those costs could be still on going. But the share buy back and dividend has been scrapped and wont return for a while I bet. So any additional losses will ultimately be born by customers and investors. Sent from my SM-N975F using Tapatalk
  4. Nobody knows the economics. Stores are usually rented. Ships are probably like a mortgaged asset. It's hard to know at this point which is worse. Sent from my SM-N975F using Tapatalk
  5. Kodak's core business model was photo film which went practically extinct. Useless comparison. Cruise lines are no different than any locked down business at the moment. Sent from my SM-N975F using Tapatalk
  6. With limited ships you deploy them where they make most money. They pulled a ship from the UK for same reason. Those markets could look attractive rather than have empty ships. Sent from my SM-N975F using Tapatalk
  7. There is a serious problem with this disease. The world is guessing who has had it and who doesnt. The tests are paramount and global theory is abound that it's been running wild far longer than people think. My GF has every symptom but cant get a test in the UK unless hospitalized. I'm 100% fine and there is no way I could not have caught it if I wasnt immune. I've taken no precautions what so ever. If 1 million were infected in the uk that means I'd need to know only 1 person out of 68 in my extended network. Within a week or so I'm sure I'll know that 4 or 5 of my own family have had it which means that the number of infected must be in the 10s of millions over the last 3 months. Nobody I know has been hospitalized and nobody I know knows anyone hospitalized. I could be wrong but I think the antibody test is going to reveal a silent infection which has already spread far wider than anyone knows which will make a mockery of the scientists and the damage they have done to the economy. Sent from my SM-N975F using Tapatalk
  8. My logic is that businesses adapt. Your views are so simplistic that they will never happen. Any drop in demand from its usual market can be countered with new markets that they never needed or wanted before. Filling ships is just about offering new experiences and opening up different markets. Stick some famous DJs on cruise ships and watch a whole new demographic flood in. Also has the side benefit of not giving a monkey's about corona and less likely to fall sick with it in any meaningful way. Asia is also relatively untapped and so is south America and the middle east. Sent from my SM-N975F using Tapatalk
  9. Tesla is a more risky share than any cruise line. The Tesla valuation is driven purely on speculation not fundamentals. Tesla will never have the desirability of a Porsche or BMW. It also just loses money hand over fist. They couldnt make enough cars to make a profit even if they wanted to. They also dont have much competition right now because nobody wants to buy over priced electric cars with limited range and suspect build quality. Whilst you can make money speculating on Tesla who ever gets caught holding the bag when reality bites is going to feel some serious pain. Sent from my SM-N975F using Tapatalk
  10. Pre crash they were all massively over priced though. So whilst good companies they could offer poor returns. Post crash I was down £20000 in my index fund. The UK market got hit for nearly 50%. I sold my entire portfolio and bought stocks 60 to 90% off pre crash pricing. I'm now only £4000 down so have recovered most of the loss. My pension is now higher than pre crash which is crazy. It remains to be seen if these shares survive any follow up decline in the bear market but I have benefited from buying oversold stocks so far. I'm hoping in 10 years I'll look back and celebrate that I went all in when everyone else was panic selling. Sent from my SM-N975F using Tapatalk
  11. Debt is fine as long as you can make the payments. Growth has to come from somewhere. A cruise line needs more ships to grow revenue. It's easy to forget they have 2 islands now too as well as they pulled indi off UK just to meet demand for perfect day. Unlike before the financial crisis when interest rates were 8% for corporate bonds companies can borrow at dirt cheap rates. I only have 100 shares and it's my smallest holding. I didnt time it that well either but I'm in profit now. Some of my oil plays are way higher risk/reward. But the fact in 50% up on shell with a 15% dividend has given me confidence of some more risky ventures. Sent from my SM-N975F using Tapatalk
  12. The stock is a huge discount. It's not without risks. If it wasnt then it wouldnt be so cheap would it. Over the next 7 years there is a ton of new ships coming on stream. The demand for cruising wont die down long term its growing. Sent from my SM-N975F using Tapatalk
  13. Growing EPS Profitable business model New ships and chinese market untapped. Dividend and share buyback scheme pre crisis. Temporary business interruption. People are betting on future returns. People sell stocks for what happened yesterday and they buy stocks for what is going on in 6, 12, 18, 24 months time.
  14. Take a 10 year view. I have invested £65,000 this week in multiple companies. Hopefully I'll look back and wonder how I got these companies so cheap. Sent from my SM-N975F using Tapatalk
  15. Markets look at the future. Not today. 19USD a share was a panic sell for people who didnt want to be wiped out. This stock market is like being around the roulette wheel on a cruise ship full of drunken gamblers. If you got the balls you can litterally buy their 100 USD chips off them for 20$. I went balls deep in stocks and caught the bottom of many shares 60-90% discount from February prices. If we see January 2020 prices ill make 300-400% eventually and some stocks 2015 pre brexit vote were trading 2x their 2020 prices so they are a absolute bargain in terms of UK prices.
  16. The total deaths double every 4 days in USA italy and spain. Testing not relevant. If it holds there is 100k dead Italians within 18 days and 1 million before June... Sent from my SM-N975F using Tapatalk
  17. I'd say its priced in to july. Sent from my SM-N975F using Tapatalk
  18. The ports have more to fear from the passengers.
  19. problem is incubation period. not to mention virus carried on surfaces by non infected people. personally im not sure what is going to stop this virus. Not sure temporary lock down will do anything other than prolong the duration.
  20. You would need to be tested all the time. 85% of cases are mild or no symptoms but also infectious. 1 day you go visit granny in the care home and next week 100 old people are dead.
  21. Ive worked it out. Dead people cant vote. The unemployed can.
  22. I can tell you one thing. If the Dow can rally 11% America is not taking this virus seriously. The total dead doubles every 4 days and that is not slowing down in america spain or italy. In 18 days Italy will have 100,000 dead of the pattern holds. Inside 1 month its 800k. Given the lack of precautions being taken how long until it's in the millions in the USA. What happens to the stock market then... the only good news at the moment is the money tree is turned on. Sent from my SM-N975F using Tapatalk
  23. It didn't survive. They found RNA. If they had tested the bed sheets they would have found human DNA. Doesnt mean the person is still living in the bed though does it. The test does not test for live virus it tests for biomarkers. Sent from my SM-N975F using Tapatalk
  24. Hindsight is 20:20 for people who dont have money in the market. Sent from my SM-N975F using Tapatalk
  25. Natural selection at its finest. The more dumb people in the world that kill themselves through stupidity the smarter the human race gets. Either through genetics or learned behaviour. Sent from my SM-N975F using Tapatalk
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