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jfunk138

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Everything posted by jfunk138

  1. At the very least, I would expect they will extend mandatory testing to everyone by September. Beyond that there is spectrum of other theatrical actions they could take like masks and distancing. One of these days the media is going to pick up on these "post cruise" positive tests and that's going to create some scrutiny. While I don't think there will be a "shutdown", there will be cancellations due to ship specific outbreaks.
  2. When I say "behind", I mean in terms of case curves, not number of vaccinations. Canada's case surge will arrive in September/October timeframe and as Israel is showing, it won't matter how many you have vaccinated. You are correct that US, UK, and Canada have similar "fully vaccinated" percentage right now.
  3. Canada is about 3 months behind the UK, 2 months behind the US. UK saw the same drop in cases Canada is seeing now, but is surging again and 60% of cases are occurring in people who are "fully vaccinated". US also starting another surge of cases including a number of high profile incidents of "fully vaccinated" people testing positive. What happens on land eventually makes its way to the sea, so it's only a matter of time until cruises see an outbreak.
  4. Not sure if you've been paying attention to what is going on on land, but "fully vaccinated" doesn't seem to be making much of a difference in terms of "cases" lately. (Yes, it does seem to be keeping people out of the hospital, but the cruise ship "color code" is cases based). Honestly it's surprising no ships have gone Red yet. I suspect we'll see a Red ship in 2-3 weeks.
  5. You don't even have to "claim unvaxxed", just refuse to share your private health information.
  6. The day mandatory vax comes to an end is the bottom. Just look at the price history since Christine Duffy's announcement on June 4.
  7. Is the door locked? Can you take a peek inside?
  8. "intestinal fortitude" - it would take the Ron DeSantis of cruising, no doubt. Opening up the 3rd largest state in the country, with so many eyes focused on it and pointing fingers, was quite the behemoth operation itself. But ol' Ron took that gamble and now is polling #2 behind you know who for a major party nomination for President.
  9. We've heard many opinions over the past 14 or so months that "opening up" will lead to disaster and be a huge mistake for whoever was opening. Eventually one of these opinions may be right, including your opinion about the cruise industry. It's somewhat unfortunate at this time that we still don't have "The Florida of Cruising" that just pushes wide open without restrictions, so that we can evaluate later which approach was better. I agree that the discussion has been interesting and your thoughtful comments are very much appreciated.
  10. I think you are going quite a bit off-topic on the Carnival stock price. We have plenty of evidence from Europe that cruiselines can go unvaccinated without issue and from the business point of view this is a better case. Excluding 50% of potential US customers is not good for the stock. We are ignoring the vaccine issue on every other mode of transportation, on every other domestic land travel destination. Simply, having this restriction on cruises is not good business. There's alot of competition for this huge supply of dollars out there: telling 50% of people with stimulu
  11. As I said, I'll be a buyer when the vax mandate is lifted. A company that excludes ~50% of their potential customers is not a good place to be. I have been paying attention to Europe, the MOST vaxxed large nation there, UK, has the largest current outbreak of that continent. But the ships are still sailing. 7-day cruises simply are NOT long enough to seed an outbreak on a ship. Meanwhile, longer "sailings", like this fully-vaxxed aircraft carrier have huge outbreaks: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-57830617 100 out of 700 fully vaxxed crew is inf
  12. "more passengers equals more profit" - this is the money line. Go back into analyst reports from pre pandemic years. Number of passengers x profit per passenger. Everything a cruiseline does in their eyes must either: increase number of passengers or increase how much money they make off of each one. This "speculation" about getting "re-shutdown" is just that: speculation. We heard the same stories when those first ships sailed in Europe. We heard this story when Texas re-opened without masks in March. Each time, the predictions NEVER come to pass.
  13. Make note of the price action since Christine Duffy's infamous comments that Carnival will require mandatory vaccination on June 4, 2021. Whenever this mandatory vaccination course is reversed will be the day the bottom is reached. Until then, all I can hear is Cramer's "Don't Buy!" button...
  14. So glad I didn't play the FCC game. I booked MG for 2/13/21 way back in summer 2019 with a fully refundable deposit fare. When final payment arrived in November 2020, I just took the refund and moved on... to Disney parks... where the whole family can go without a vax, without a test, and without a mask. Looking into all-inclusives in Mexico for another trip but not pulling the trigger until the testing requirement goes away.
  15. Hand picking? It's the SINGLE most readily available vaccine statistic that is reported everywhere: by Fauci, on TV news, in social media. If you have a stat that more accurately represents the vaccination rate of Carnival's customers, please share. I have to assume that Carnival's customer base cuts across a broad swath of the entire population. Indeed, Carnival's base (younger, more "party" oriented) might even trend less vaccinated that the national average. But we don't have any data on that. I don't doubt they can fill the few ships sailing to 100% capacity ri
  16. I've been shifting my CCL shares to DIS shares. Disney Parks are wide open with no restrictions, and if Covid heats up again it has the content empire to fall back on. Meanwhile the cruiselines are busy alienating the ~51% of the US population not currently "fully vaccinated". What kind of business thrives when they exclude over half their potential customers? Not the kind I invest in, and if the price action in CCL over the past month (-25%) is any indication, I am not alone. This comes despite all the apparent "good news" over that same time period. They are not building l
  17. If everyone ( including vaxxed) needs to be tested, as the expert quoted in the Business Insider article claims, why should there be a different cost for the test depending on whether you are vaccinated?
  18. Are you fine with paying $150 to be tested? I think this expert is clear, that everyone, vaccinated or not, needs to be tested.
  19. If the expert quoted in this article are to be believed, vaccinated need to be tested as well: https://www.businessinsider.com/covid-expert-vaccinated-people-can-spread-the-delta-variant-2021-7?op=1 "COVID Expert: Vaccinated People Can Spread the Delta Variant"
  20. So is Carnival still paying for the evacuation and medical expenses of vaccinated people who test positive for Covid? Or is that on your dime but you just aren't compelled to buy insurance for it?
  21. Sounds like the cruiselines are increasingly headed to "wink, wink, nod, nod" system that has seen wide adoption on land.
  22. I think Wall Street is starting to price in increased risk of the current situation in UK making its way across the pond. Seems to be hitting the 3 stocks equally hard.
  23. If a person is immunocompromised, isn't a cruise ship near the top of the list of places one should avoid, even without a pandemic? Norovirus is a virtual guarantee of hospitization for immunocompromised and Zika is still pretty rampant in most of the places cruises visit.
  24. Remember that day back in May when the CDC updated their mask guidelines and within a week ~40 of the 50 states dropped ALL restrictions within a week? Today is that day for cruising. By the time CDC returns from Juneteenth holiday week, cruising might look more like 2019 than many think...
  25. I'm not sure why you keep talking about the 95% vaccinated threshold. One of the key points of the decision was that is unconstitutional for CDC to mandate any level of vaccination, so "the threshold" is gone if the decision stands. Also, I think a set of restrictions comparable to air travel is required to pass the "reasonableness" requirement and there's no mention of vaccines for air travel. From this point forward vaccination requirements are an issue for cruiselines to decide independently while complying with their homeports requirements.
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