jfunk138

Heads up for anyone who doesn't want to do it the AARP way.  

https://www.newegg.com/Shell-Shocker/EventSaleStore/ID-10381

$300 denomination listed as an upcoming offer.  Citi cards have a "merchant offer" for additional cashback at newegg.  Might also be able to find a click through shopping site for additional pennies.

Booked 7 days before departure.  Terms say 4-weeks, anybody have any experience getting them to expedite for last minute booking?  I already sent the email to shareholders@carnival.com and was not so lucky to be one of the folks where they give credit within 24 hours, as some have reported.

Any success stories with a last minute situation?

For me, whichever 16oz craft brew they have in cans with 6+% alcohol is best bang for buck, the large wine package at dinner is also a pretty good bang for the buck.

LITs are too unpredictable and vary based on bartender.

15 hours ago, Virga said:

 

I somehow had misunderstood the Vista outbreak - how many ultimately tested positive??  I'd been operating on the assumption that the color chart was tied to fairly conservative (though frustratingly opaque) thresholds - I'm a bit stunned to realize that 3% of the crew could test positive and not earn a red label.  I'm having trouble finding legitimate sources, unfortunately - do you have any suggestions on article titles to Google to find out how bad it actually got?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2021/08/15/carnival-cruise-covid-19-outbreak-27-vaccinated-people-test-positive-for-coronavirus/

26 out of ~1000 crew = 2.6%.  Yes, it's not quite double but very close and very clearly more than the theorized 1.5% threshold.

You can check the color here, counterintuitively "yellow" is worse than "orange":

https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/cruise/cruise-ship-color-status.html

If your ship is "green", no active cases onboard currently.

If your ship is "orange", there are active cases but CDC is checking to see if there are enough to investigate further.

If your ship is "yellow", there are active cases onboard currently and there are enough for CDC to be monitoring it.

If your ship is "red", there are enough active cases to exceed some arbitrary threshold set by the CDC.  Folks on CC previously believed this threshold to be 1.5% of passengers or crew.  But Vista doubled this threshold and never moved to red, so we really have no idea what it might be.

The majority of ships sailing with passengers fall into "yellow".

You know, I have trouble remembering everything that happened last week, 10 days ago is like a blur.  I am also pretty bad at calendar math.  That test was definitely 2 weeks ago... I'm sure of it.

1 minute ago, ProgRockCruiser said:

The thing with threats is that by definition, they are inaction until there is action, and the action is usually what we are trying to avoid.

 

If everybody took the attitude that masking was to be ignored, I would hazard a guess that cases would increase significantly, and once that hits the fan, there will be no takebacks.

The CDC drew a red line with actual numbers.  Vista exceeded the CDC's numbers.  CDC did nothing, not even mark it RED on the color status board, let alone shut it down.

Just like your "guess", my personal guess is that we could never hit a level that would cross whatever CDC's unspoken "now we actually do something" line on a 7 day cruise no matter what passenger restrictions were in place, Covid's incubation period is just too long.  The only people on the ship long enough is the crew, who already wear masks everywhere, all the time.

53 minutes ago, ProgRockCruiser said:

So...just out of curiosity, you are suggesting that it would be better if the mask rules were not enforced, and no-one cared, so that when cases do have a random outbreak or two the CDC or other authorities can say "OK, shut it down!  No more cruising!"?

 

I would like the rules to go away, but for the right reasons.

Is there any evidence that the CDC will actually "shut it down"?  Back in June many here claimed that "a single case of Covid" would shutdown the industry.  Then August arrived with the Vista reporting ~30 cases and 1 Covid death on a single sailing, yet despite the numbers putting it above the CDC's own 1.5% threshold for shutdown, we get crickets from the CDC.  The threat of "shutdowns" is clearly an idle threat at this point.

There are going to be outbreaks.  The presence of the mask police will not change this.

13 hours ago, naxer said:

Originally, I didn't think it would bother me, but now I'm wondering if sailing in November with these guidelines might be like a death by 1000 cuts.  Would you sail again with the masking?

I suggest you look at the comments on this thread.  People seem to be demanding more enforcement.  Assuming the mask rules stay in place until November, enforcement will almost certainly be increased, as folks are demanding it and "The rules are the rules, don't like it, don't sail"™.  

Read the comments and ask yourself if you think it will be pleasant to sail with these folks demanding increased enforcement before you make your final payment.

1 hour ago, sanger727 said:

What doesn't seem clear from the articles I've read on it, are if this woman was actually vaccinated; or if she was in the 5% with exemptions. That seems like a critical piece of information. If she was in the 5% with exemptions, curious if the fact that this occurred and she died is playing at all into Carnivla's decision to deny exemptions to adults.

If she were unvaccinated, you can bet it would be in headlines everywhere.  When those 2 passengers on the early Royal sailing tested positive, the "unvaccinated" part was trumpeted everywhere (so much for HIPAA in that case).

I think it's safe to say that this woman was fully vaccinated.

9 minutes ago, BrotherCraig said:

 

 

I hear ya.  It is crazy.  We are ready to go though.  Might go for a 4 day cruise for $39.  

$39 doesn't even buy you the formal night steak dinner on land lately, never mind the 3 other dinners, 4 lunches, and 4 breakfasts.  Carnival is losing a ton of money on the fare like this...

52 minutes ago, BrotherCraig said:

The good news out of all of this -- I have never seen cruise fare so low before in my life.  Fully vaccinated can take a 5 day cruise for around $120 in a balcony.  Tempting.  lol

The availability of these cruises at what appears to be "below cost" like this, really calls into question the idea that there are so many people willing to vax up, mask up, and jump on a cruise right now that the cruiselines have no problem "filling" ships.

The rules effectively ban ~50% of the US population because of their medical choices, meanwhile a large number of the eligible 50% has no interest in going back to playing mask theater that they haven't played on land since May.  Yet more of that 50% eligible population, is advised not to sail due to their health conditions. 

How many people are actually left that want to cruise in the present situation? 

1 minute ago, EngIceDave said:

Positive doesn't mean sick

 

They may have only been detected through routine testing.

May not have ever known otherwise.

 

Positive does not mean sick.

 

 

 

The guidelines for red status say nothing about "severe infections".  "Positive cases" is supposed to be the benchmark.

10 hours ago, arkaine23 said:

Wow.  That's more than 1% of the crew.   Makes me wonder what it takes for red status... simply on-going transmission among the crew cruise to cruise, breaking a 1.5%+ threshold in a week?

 

If the source is credible...

I have to wonder if the CDC is intentionally avoiding assigning any "vaccinated cruise" red status.  Not exactly a ringing PR endorsement for the vax, to have an outbreak among fully vaccinated crew.

At the very least, I would expect they will extend mandatory testing to everyone by September.  Beyond that there is spectrum of other theatrical actions they could take like masks and distancing.  One of these days the media is going to pick up on these "post cruise" positive tests and that's going to create some scrutiny.  While I don't think there will be a "shutdown", there will be cancellations due to ship specific outbreaks.

13 minutes ago, kdr69 said:

We are ahead of the US in terms of vaccinations now though and im skeptical about the 60% figure given the rare occurrences of breakthrough cases and reports such as below indicate they were NOT considered "fully vaccinated"

https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19vaccine/93249

Notably, the vast majority of index cases in vaccinated individuals -- 93% -- came before the person had received the recommended second dose, Harris and colleagues pointed out. "Assessment of infection risks among household contacts according to the timing of vaccination of the index patient showed protective effects when the vaccine had been administered at least 14 days before the positive test," the group wrote. By days 14 to 16 after vaccination, the odds ratio for household contacts to become infected had fallen to about 0.70-0.75, reaching about 0.4 after 35 days, both in comparison with contacts of unvaccinated index patients.

Overall, the findings support previous suggestions that breakthrough infections after COVID vaccination tend not only to to be less severe, but also less transmissible than infections in the unvaccinated, Harris and colleagues concluded.

 

When I say "behind", I mean in terms of case curves, not number of vaccinations.  Canada's case surge will arrive in September/October timeframe and as Israel is showing, it won't matter how many you have vaccinated. 

You are correct that US, UK, and Canada have similar "fully vaccinated" percentage right now.

Just now, kdr69 said:

Well i would think it would only be surprising for people who expect the protocols they have in place not to work. Fully Vaccinated is making a difference by the way.  Stats here in Alberta released yesterday show that since January 1st 96% of all confirmed cases were either unvaccinated or diagnosed within two weeks of receiving their first dose while their immunity was still building.  So to me it seems it is making a difference.  A HUGE difference from pre vaccine days.

Canada is about 3 months behind the UK, 2 months behind the US.  UK saw the same drop in cases Canada is seeing now, but is surging again and 60% of cases are occurring in people who are "fully vaccinated". 

US also starting another surge of cases including a number of high profile incidents of "fully vaccinated" people testing positive.  What happens on land eventually makes its way to the sea, so it's only a matter of time until cruises see an outbreak.

12 minutes ago, kdr69 said:

Serenade of the Seas just sailed for Alaska and is already listed as Yellow which is interesting since the Alaska cruises are supposed to be fully vaccinated cruises arent they? Carnival Freedom, Horizon and Conquest are now in Yellow followed by Breeze and Miracle in Orange.  Mardi Gras is now Green which is good since they are sailing in just over a week.

Not sure if you've been paying attention to what is going on on land, but "fully vaccinated" doesn't seem to be making much of a difference in terms of "cases" lately.  (Yes, it does seem to be keeping people out of the hospital, but the cruise ship "color code" is cases based).

Honestly it's surprising no ships have gone Red yet.  I suspect we'll see a Red ship in 2-3 weeks.

1 minute ago, zpdw484 said:

Thanks Firefly. We are looking at Oct 9th. So if we needed to cancel we could claim unvaxxed and get refund. Am I understanding this correctly?

You don't even have to "claim unvaxxed",  just refuse to share your private health information.

The day mandatory vax comes to an end is the bottom.  Just look at the price history since Christine Duffy's announcement on June 4.  

8 minutes ago, lobster1313 said:

Yes. I am on deck 2 on the port side and they didn't hold anything on this side. We were walking down to the aft and then taking the stairs to 3 for dining. There were door decorations all the way through that section. 

Is the door locked?  Can you take a peek inside?  

7 minutes ago, cruisingguy007 said:

 

LOL, Wiley Coyote cruise lines? It would be interesting to be sure and I'd make a bundle heavily shorting it but these operations are behemoth operations with a lot of moving parts and a lot of money at stake. Treating it as a simple position on red/black at the roulette wheel and hoping for the best would take intestinal fortitude the likes most will never see. Plus a little bit of crazy for good measure...lol. It would very interesting/entertaining though, I'll give you that. 😉   

"intestinal fortitude" - it would take the Ron DeSantis of cruising, no doubt.  Opening up the 3rd largest state in the country, with so many eyes focused on it and pointing fingers, was quite the behemoth operation itself.

But ol' Ron took that gamble and now is polling #2 behind you know who for a major party nomination for President.

1 minute ago, cruisingguy007 said:

 

Sounds like my comment was right on the money. Opening up cruising to unvaccinated would be a huge mistake for the industry IMO and would probably bankrupt it at this point. Chasing money off a cliff isn't a smart business decision. It's a Wiley Coyote move. We'll just have to agree to disagree on this one. I respect your position, I just disagree with it entirely. Not entirely actually, I do agree with you in principle, just not practicality. I do appreciate you taking the time to explain your reasoning though.  

We've heard many opinions over the past 14 or so months that "opening up" will lead to disaster and be a huge mistake for whoever was opening.  Eventually one of these opinions may be right, including your opinion about the cruise industry.

It's somewhat unfortunate at this time that we still don't have "The Florida of Cruising" that just pushes wide open without restrictions, so that we can evaluate later which approach was better.

I agree that the discussion has been interesting and your thoughtful comments are very much appreciated.

Just now, cruisingguy007 said:

 

You can downplay it all you want and pretend the vaccines don't help by pointing out breakthrough cases. The data proves otherwise with hospitalizations and deaths being nearly all unvaccinated and needless in nature. Ignoring covid won't change the outcomes, restrictions, and rules that are happening. Vaccine defiance may even seem fun and liberating to many. The problem is, simply ignoring it and moving on, while numbers climb, won't be a rational solution to much of the world and/or much of even our country.

 

Some states will truck on defiantly no matter what, just as some countries have, and let the chips fall where they may. Many will cheer and celebrate it actually. Letting it rip will never be mainstream though. Truth be told though, once vaccines are available for the younger kids and boosters for those who want, I'm all for it. I say let it rip, remove all restrictions, mandates and give people the freedom they truly want. I've about had my fill of he horses that don't want to drink. That time is not now though.      

I think you are going quite a bit off-topic on the Carnival stock price.  We have plenty of evidence from Europe that cruiselines can go unvaccinated without issue and from the business point of view this is a better case.  Excluding 50% of potential US customers is not good for the stock.  

We are ignoring the vaccine issue on every other mode of transportation, on every other domestic land travel destination.  Simply, having this restriction on cruises is not good business.  There's alot of competition for this huge supply of dollars out there:  telling 50% of people with stimulus dollars, child tax credit dollars, and supplemental unemployment dollars burning a whole in their pockets:  "You'll just have to wait" is a bad thing for business.  People won't wait.  They've been trapped in their houses for 18 months.  They are going to spend on the travel destinations that will take them.

Maybe it's a coincidence that the stock peaked within a trading day of Christine Duffy's comments about mandatory vax, but markets are very attuned to this kind of thing.  I think the market sees the same problem I do.

45 minutes ago, cruisingguy007 said:

 

You seem really confidant. If you (or anyone else) really believe that then you should go whole hog on the stock. It's a sure bet. Good luck!  

 

**Europe is one of the reasons I lack confidence. You should see what's going on over there.  

As I said, I'll be a buyer when the vax mandate is lifted.   A company that excludes ~50% of their potential customers is not a good place to be.

I have been paying attention to Europe, the MOST vaxxed large nation there, UK, has the largest current outbreak of that continent.  But the ships are still sailing.  7-day cruises simply are NOT long enough to seed an outbreak on a ship.

Meanwhile, longer "sailings", like this fully-vaxxed aircraft carrier have huge outbreaks:

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-57830617

100 out of 700 fully vaxxed crew is infected.