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tidecat

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About tidecat

  • Rank
    Cool Cruiser

About Me

  • Location
    Louisville
  • Interests
    Internet Radio
  • Favorite Cruise Line(s)
    Carnival
  • Favorite Cruise Destination Or Port of Call
    Half Moon Cay, Bahamas

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  1. Bookings will be available until the sale has been closed, and any other deployment changes to cover for the sold ship - if not outright cancelling itineraries - has been arranged.
  2. It wouldn't make sense to scrap the Pride or Glory. One ship may need to take on crew from the ship(s) being sold, not that it should be that many.
  3. I was there on February 25 with two other ships - one from Celebrity, one from Silversea - and it did not feel crowded at all. Honestly it sounds like COVID-19 has influenced their judgment. Since Carnival typically runs 4-day Key West/Cozumel cruises, a ship has to leave early to be able to arrive at Cozumel by Noon the next day. It really wouldn't be possible to run the itinerary in reverse order because it would put the ship in Cozumel around 2:00 or 3:00 PM on Day 2.
  4. Twelve months ago I could have said there is no market for used cruise ships, and still been absolutely correct. If you're a smaller operator like Bahamas Paradise or CMV, are you going to spend $30-$60 Million to buy and refurbish a 25+ year old vessel? You do if you think you can expand your service, but if you're replacing an otherwise seaworthy and functional vessel, it's a tough investment to justify. Now you have no revenue coming in either, so it's virtually impossible to justify. The flip side is that every smaller operator that bites the dust only helps the major lines.
  5. Yes. There is no market for used cruise ships. Birka Cruises and Pullmantur, two small European lines, have both closed their doors; more will certainly follow. Each ship costs upwards of $1 Million a month to maintain, even with a skeletal crew, and there's no revenue coming in to offset that.
  6. Fascination is scheduled for a drydock later this year (11/06-11/21/2020 per GoCCL). That's a few million of additional expense that can be avoided, in addition to a few million to keep the ship running, and the proceeds from the sale itself. Ecsatsy was last refurbished in October 2019, so she isn't due until mid-to-late 2022.
  7. Carnival Fanatsy was the only one missing an Alchemy Bar. It was also still on the "Sushi at Sea", "Coffee Bar", and "Spa Carnival" brands (not sure about "Special Occasions") but aside from the upgrades on the Lido Deck, the majority of it are signage and menu changes. So if cruising resumes in 2020 or 2021, which one of Mobile or San Juan is left holding the bag? Or does Carnival move another Fantasy class ship to Mobile or San Juan, even if only temporarily?
  8. Here's a wildcard: what ships are up for drydock soon? Ships at least 15 years old are expected to be dry docked every 30 months (+/- 6 months). For ships younger than 15, this is once every 5 years. Fantasy: last in January 2019, next: TBD - she will be due in January 2022, when she is scheduled to be replaced by Fascination in Mobile. I expect all cruises out of Mobile to be canceled for the balance of 2020 and 2021, unless if Carnival pulls out of San Juan early. Either way the Fantasy is gone. Ecstasy: last in October 2019, next TBD - she may be the second oldest, but I don't see Carnival pulling the plug anytime soon. Sensation: last in January 2020, next TBD - should be safe until at least the fall of 2022. Fascination: last February 2018, next November 2020. If it's time for her to go, it has to happen by October. Only downside is that Carnival would be canceling cruises out of San Juan that would not likely be substituted with different bookings, losing a ship with a modest number of balcony cabins, and not having a ship in Mobile come 2022, after just having signed a multi-year deal with Mobile. At least those in Mobile have a short trip over to New Orleans, and this frees up tens of millions of dollars by avoiding drydock. Verdict: highly unsafe, but we should see clarity very soon. Imagination: last in October 2019, next TBA. Imagination is a logical candidate due to the lack of non-suite balconies, but being less than a year out of drydock may make disposal problematic. If she is sold, it will likely be due to relative lack of profit potential in resuming service. Verdict: likely safe for now. Inspiration: last in November 2018, next TBD. Inspiration has the disadvantage over Imagination in being further out of drydock. The real savings are preventing an expense in 2021, but she theoretically could go in for maintenance this year. Miracle and Imagination can pick up the slack for displaced West Coast cruisers. Verdict: unsafe Elation: last March 2020, next TBD. She went in to drydock in early March, and came out to find operations completely stopped. The ship would be sold only as a last resort. Verdict: safe. Paradise: last March 2018, next February/March 2021 (*if not officially announced, there are no sailings from February 26 through March 18, 2021). There may be trouble in Paradise, as she would be due soon. This would still be an unlikely candidate for sale unless if the disruption persists into next year. Verdict: safe for now, but could be unsafe later this year. On the bubble: 1a. Inspiration, 1b. Fantasy, 2. Fascination, 3. Paradise. I think multiple cuts are a very real possibility given the goal of disposing of 17 ships (the four scheduled prior to 2020, plus the 13 announced by Carnival this year). Carnival Victory is the other wildcard, as the materials for Carnival Radiance were likely delivered. I suspect if Carnival sells some other ships, they will proceed with the Radiance. I don't think we'll see any more cuts from P&O Australia, unless if Carnival is unable to complete the refurbishments on Golden Princess (Pacific Adventure) and Star Princess (Pacific Encounter). Pacific Explorer just came out of drydock in March 2020, so it is unlikely to be sold. The exception might be is if Carnival exits Australia entirely, in which case the incoming Princess ships go away and Pacific Explorer gets rebadged as the "other" P&O or to the China-specific brand. Costa has already lost the Victoria, and Mediterranea is already scheduled to head to the China-specific brand. I would suspect neoRomantica is the next go due to her size - she was dry docked in 2017, but I can't find evidence of one after that. I expect Princess will pay the heaviest price - Sea Princess, Crown Princess, and Island Princess are all scheduled for drydock in October and November. Sapphire Princess was last in drydock in March 2018, and would be due again shortly. Diamond Princess last came out of drydock on February 1, 2019, but may also get cut due to what happened at the onset of the pandemic. Ruby Princess, while less than 15 years old, will be slightly easier to boot, as her last drydock was October 2018. That could be 1/3 of its 18 ships.
  9. Here's a wildcard: what ships are up for drydock soon? Ships at least 15 years old are expected to be dry docked every 30 months (+/- 6 months). For ships younger than 15, this is once every 5 years. Fantasy: last in January 2019, next: TBD - she will be due in January 2022, when she is scheduled to
  10. Barring a mass culling of the fleet here in 2020, I think we'll see more meaningful changes in 2023: 2022 Fascination from San Juan to Mobile Fantasy (Mobile) retired Service discontinued from San Juan Second XL ship (Miami) delayed to 2023 2023 Second XL ship to Miami Horizon from Miami to Port Canaveral Dream-class from Port Canaveral to Long Beach Elation from Port Canaveral to Miami Liberty from Port Canaveral to Miami Sunrise from Miami to Port Canaveral Sensation from Miami to Jacksonville Ecstasy (Jacksonville), Imagination (Long Beach), Inspiration (Long Beach) retired. Carnival takes the one opportunity to consolidate ships by putting a Dream-class ship on the Ensenada routes. Miami and Port Canaveral trade capacity to offset the loss of a Fantasy-class vessel in Port Canaveral. At this point we have to assume Carnival would have begun building more ships again. As even with half of the Fantasy class gone, there are still 11 ships at least 20 years old, and one of those would be 30 years old (Sensation) come 2023.
  11. I agree, there is no guarantee the itineraries would be run out of Palm Beach with Port Everglades and PortMiami just down the road.
  12. I'm sure Grand Celebration and Grand Classica are cheaper to operate in cold layup than larger vessels, but BPCL could be starting down around $2 Million per month in expenses while not having any passengers. Getting rid of one or both ships obviously cuts that down significantly. Even in cold layup, there could still a few dozen crew onboard each ship. Birka Cruises, which just announced it is pulling the plug, has one ship of similar size that runs predominantly 2-day to 4-day itineraries - they are done after 3.5 months. I can't imagine BPCL will fare much better. I'm not sure what restrictions on ship size/capacity the Port of Palm Beach may have, but Carnival, Royal Caribbean, or Norwegian may be able to fill the void if BPCL goes under.
  13. What will help the Fascination is that if sailing will resume by 2021, then keeping a ship in San Juan may cut down on the number of refunds issued. It's not like cruisers in San Juan can drive a couple hours to another homeport like those sailing out of New Orleans, Mobile, or Florida.
  14. Carnival Panorama is now open through April 2023. Some Australian itineraries are now open through August 2022.
  15. It's not much, but Carnival Panorma is open for booking through April 29, 2023 for 7-day Mexican Riviera itineraries. Varying Austalian itineraries are open through June 2022 on the Carnival Spirit and Carnival Splendor.
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