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About JamieLogical

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    Rochester, NY
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  1. Taiwan has only had 540 cases and 7 deaths. The county that my parents live in in the middle of nowhere, rural Pennsylvania has had 400 and 7 deaths. The Vice President of Taiwan is an actual, real life epidemiologist, so they had a big advantage! Along with being an island that was able to completely lock down its borders.
  2. Unfortunately, both of my cruises were canceled due to COVID-19, just two days before I was set to depart.
  3. I find it interesting that the ship left with their belongings still onboard. I had heard (and seen) that the crew pack up the cabin and leave the passengers' belongings with the port authorities. I know I have seen something that looks like this a few times with what I assumed were passengers were left behind or chose to stay behind. I have definitely seen then loading up luggage onto a shuttle, cab, or golf cart as they are still calling out names just before departure.
  4. But at those Caribbean ports there are sometimes 2, 5, more (?) ships docked at once. Would each ship have to have staff there to swipe the cards of passengers coming through the gate? Is access to those areas limited to cruise ship passengers? If someone who wasn't on a cruise wanted to enter/exit to shop, would they be barred from doing so? How would they prove they WEREN'T on a cruise and therefor didn't have a card that needed to be swiped?
  5. How would they track/monitor that?
  6. Even before COVID there was no such thing as a "typical winning bid". Who knows how bids will be handled post-COVID when ships will likely be at reduced capacity? Whether a bid would was primarily dependent on availability. Obviously, if the ship is at 100% capacity, few, if any bids will be accepted. The best advice anyone can give you is to bid what you are comfortable with. You want to place a bid where you will be happy if you win it and content to save that money or just spend the money onboard if you lose it. You don't want to be full of regret after ward thinking that you overpaid or that you bid too little.
  7. Before COVID I kept spreadsheets tracking pricing and availability on all my upcoming cruises. I needed somewhere else to put all my spreadsheet energy once all my upcoming cruises were canceled, so I decided to keep COVID spreadsheets in the mean time. I track daily new cases and deaths at the World, US, New York State, and Monroe County (my home county) levels. It's definitely not nearly as fun as my cruise tracking spreadsheets. 😪
  8. It's weekend reporting. I see it on every single graph at every single level (county, state, country, world). New cases and deaths are consistently under-reported on weekends. Which is why on my own graphs that I keep (I love spreadsheets!), I always display the 7 day average as well and pay much more attention to that than the daily peaks and valleys.
  9. Oh absolutely. Just like most of the early cases in New York came from Europe and then spread. I think it is much more telling to see how cases and deaths have spread after much more information has become available to us (and the powers that be). Currently Florida and New York are armed with the exact same information about how the virus spreads and how to treat those who have it, yet in the past 30 days, these are the numbers: Notice how the Florida chart tops out over 200 deaths per day and the NYS chart tops out around 15 deaths a day. For those of you concerned about media manipulation, you can just ignore the media and examine the numbers for yourselves and draw your own conclusions. Critical thinking is an essential skill!
  10. Yeah, don't feel too bad about it. My best guess is that there is maybe a 20% chance the cruise will happen at all and I know many people wouldn't want to cruise under the proposed restrictions anyway. My current thought is to wait it out until the last possible minute and make a decision about final payment. Most of our final payment would be comprised of FCC from canceled cruises anyway, so our out-of-pocket wouldn't be too much. My main concern there is we had applied some FCC to one of our canceled cruises and have not received it back on our accounts. We have only received FCC from the cash we paid and our cruise next deposits. Currently we are still $690 short on the FCC we are owed. Committing a bunch of new FCC makes me worried we might lose more of it.
  11. Are you planning to make final payment at the 60-day mark? I am wavering on whether or not to do so, but have a little more time than you do to decide. I was very relieved they reduced the final payment window to 60-days when we were only about a week away from having to pay at the 120-day mark. If we had had to make final payment then (early September) we definitely would have just canceled. Hopefully we'll be armed with enough information to make a decent decision by the 60-day mark.
  12. The VAST VAST VAST majority of COVID deaths in NYS happened early in the pandemic when people were exposed before the lockdowns, treatments were unknown, and vulnerable populations were contracting it at much higher rates than less vulnerable demographics. In the downstate area, hospitals were overwhelmed which led to a high death rate, just like Spain and Italy in the early days. States that got hit later had more time to prepare, had the benefit of lessons learned from Europe and the Tri-State Area, and had time to protect their vulnerable populations. Florida has vastly surpassed NYS in total cases, but has a lower death rate because the demographics of those infected and the timing of when the infections happened. Florida had 174 deaths yesterday. New York State had 9. New York hasn't had more than 100 deaths in a day since the first of July. Most days we are in the single digits and some days even have zero!
  13. At least you got your $550 FFC back, even if you can't use it. We are still fighting for $690 of FCC we had applied to our March 2020 sailing (which was obviously canceled) that still hasn't been credited back to us at all.
  14. Yes, in that trend, we tried to decipher when and what bids would get accepted. We never did really come up with the full "secret sauce", but we did identify some trends. Like bids on "exotic" sailings getting accepted early, high bids getting accepted early, and bids getting accepted right before price drops. I think ALL of that is going to be out the window for a while when sailing starts back up. For one thing, it will be interesting to see how limited capacity plays out and impacts bidding. If, say, the rule is that ships can only sail at 50% capacity, do cruise lines continue to sell all room categories? Do they only sell the more expensive categories? Can everyone just book insides to get the ship to 50% and then use the Upgrade Advantage to upgrade to all the empty balconies and club suites?
  15. Yeah the more "exotic" destinations do seem to get their upgrades processed very early compared to the normal Caribbean and Bermuda itineraries. My Jan. 3 sailing is a more unusual itinerary, so you could be right about upgrades happening earlier. It's the ABC islands out of NYC and returning to Miami. Since it's set to sail out of NYC, I have low expectations of it actually happening, but I have 33 more days until final payment is due, so we will see what happens between now and then.
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