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Wolf 8

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Everything posted by Wolf 8

  1. Hi, the CDC website will give you clarity as to what personal steps to take for protecting yourself and especially the vulnerable. Due to vastly differing conditions from state to state, your governor and their officials are your source for local guidance.
  2. Tomorrow, before U.S. markets open "The Lancet" is due to publish full Phase 1 trial results of AstraZeneca's vaccine. As many of you probably know, its Phase 3 trial is already underway. I hope this bit of information proves useful.
  3. I don't envy corporate executives who have stock options as part of their compensation package any more than Apple or Walmart employees who do and retire as millionaires.
  4. And that is why, on the 8th day, God created trailing stops.
  5. I hope you and your dad stay OK and that Canada continues uniformly enforcing social-distancing rules. You may have heard that down here some U.S. cities have held certain large, unprotected gatherings. My family has been holed-up now for nearly 4 months following all the CDC guidelines and after recent events we're resigned to suffering until there is a vaccine.
  6. I completely agree that the risks facing RCL and it's stock are enormous. This morning after it popped I put in a stop limit sell order at $57 so at least now I'll come out a little ahead if it tanks again. If it gets down to the $30's and isn't teetering on bankruptcy I'll be right there with you ready to buy back in.
  7. Bought 100 shares today on a $54.50 per share limit order that transacted at the closing bell. Short term I may enjoy a dead cat bounce and see some pocket change. Long term I win if big pharma announces that clinical trials show a viable vaccine is on the way that can be plunged into the eager arms of Celebrity cruisers within 8 to 12 months. My wife and I enjoyed out time on the Silhouette last December and that may have clouded my judgement in buying these few shares of RCL stock. Maybe it was just the hope that soon we'll all be able to resume cruising and the other good thi
  8. I agree, NO sane nation would accept U.S. cruise ship passengers now. They've watched New York "protect" their nursing home patients.
  9. Here's my take on what will be different when pleasure cruising resumes. When it exists, my wife and I will both have had the vaccine that confers us immunity and we'll board with the required proof. Then we'll eat, drink and be merry just like before without restriction. Others may decide to step onto a ship with thousands of other people who may have or acquire (during visits to ports of call, etc.) a deadly virus. We will not.
  10. Actually, those covenants specify the point when the borrower's deterioration triggers bankruptcy. Those same lending terms also prioritize the lenders for being made whole during bankruptcy proceedings. You are correct in the sense that lenders always hope to enjoy being fully repaid with the agreed upon interest. But loans to desperate companies like RCL include protections to assure, one way or another that the lender's will recover their investment.
  11. If anyone is interested, financial resources such as Seeking Alpha have recently made dispassionate evaluations of RCL stock. The hard numbers show that today the assets of RCL are worth far, far less than it's liabilities. More ominously, RCL's recent, high-cost loans surely have covenants that can force bankruptcy (if they don't, you must think those cold-blooded lenders have suddenly become Little Bo Peep's). I more than doubled my money several weeks ago buying then selling RCL when there was the potential for a bailout in the air. That does not exist today. I ma
  12. Most everybody has heard the story of the website with a big red button and a warning that says, "Pressing this button will infect your computer with a virus". It was actually just a stupidity test and thousands of people pressed that button. Tonight while the deadly Corona-19 virus rages cruise operators have websites that coax you to, "Press this button" and sail away in carefree bliss". I see only a distinction without a difference between the two.
  13. Every generation has it's moments of artistic grace, I guess.
  14. Missing the joys of cruising reminds me of Joni Mitchell's classic, "Big Yellow Taxi" where she say's, "You don't know what you've got 'till it's gone". I'll raise my glass in a toast to cruises lost and the hope that we, Celebrity and it's crew members all live to sail worry free once again.
  15. I also hope RCL does not go bankrupt but the investor in me can't ignore their situation. RCL has now put ships up as collateral for massive transfusions of cash just to survive. Those loans include "covenants" designed to protect (and potentially enrich) the lender. Typically they state that when the borrower's financial condition deteriorates to a specified point the borrower is compelled to file for bankruptcy.
  16. I notice that the link you are providing has an Amazon affiliate ID added to it. Shouldn't you be letting us know you're trying to make a profit here?
  17. Your prediction that the lower/middle class will wise up one day and rebel against the rich got me to thinking where the blood letting will begin. I realized that the one place a subservient underclass is required to indulge the privileged in an inescapable place is this: luxury cruise ships. Picture how the mutiny would emerge from the bowels of those vessels. Younger passengers in lower floor cabins would of course be dispatched first by their dutiful cabin stewards. Lastly, butlers who service the assisted living suites would (politely, I am sure) sacrifice their elite, entit
  18. I've never wasted a minute investigating CCL's financials because I believe my lyin' eyes. CCL has worked for decades to become the cruise industry's garbage can. CCL poses a lethal danger to their passengers, crews and the ports that service their boats. On it's worst day RCL is a far better company than CCL can ever be due to the bare bones nature of CCL's business model (low profit margin due to cheap fares for low income clientele). RCL's existential problem remains this: Until there is a vaccine how can cruise ships come and go for a week or two without apparently healthy
  19. My wife and I have long loved the Aussies and still have plans to take a long, long visit to the land down under (no cruise ship involved, just trains, planes and automobiles). You folks stay safe and God willing we'll see you sooner rather than later.
  20. I vote for Celebrity to be nimble enough to gradually calibrate it's entire operation (bookings, sailings, pricing, excursions, etc.) while the world defeats this virus. If Celebrity misjudges the appetites of the customers they are trying to woo then they and their shareholders will be severely punished. The actual vote on this question will be cast by you and I, the people who decide if they'll accept or reject the terms of whatever offers Celebrity makes in the future. By definition, everyone who elects to sail on a cruise ship is a capitalist, after all.
  21. Based upon what you've said my one suggestion is you should first pay for an hour with a licensed fiduciary (fiduciaries are legally bound to put your best interests first), rather some salesperson (e.g., "broker" or "financial advisor" whose job is to ring up commissions by selling you things.
  22. My hope is that they pay the balance in full rather than pay the minimum and incur the ruinous interest rates that credit card issuers levy.
  23. Yes you could dispute the charge, Celebrity would then show that when incurred it was justified along with the subsequent sequence of events showing that they're playing nice. Were it me I'd pay the bill then have my credit card company just cut me a check when the refund credit is posted.
  24. I certainly hope no one is deprived the loyalty perks that take such sacrifice to earn. I say this because before cruise operators fail a terrible number of our friends and neighbors will have died or suffered economic ruin. In a way, tonight the world is one big Titanic. Remember that karma can be a real witch.
  25. It was fun while it lasted. I bought last week on 3-19-20 at $21.60 and after this week's run-up I sold this morning at $44.83. I still think RCL will survive and be much higher in 12 to 18 months but for the immediate future I no longer see the conditions to propel it higher.
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