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amatuercruiser

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About amatuercruiser

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    Australia
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    Melbourne

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  1. How? Lets assume 6 more months no USA Alaska cruises. Japan Feb 2021 Maybe Europe Jan 2021 maybe Carnival lost 4.5 Billion last quarter. 2 More quarters layup costs at say 3.2 Billion a Quarter. Interest payments on Junk Bonds at approx 12% for 7 months Carnival Current Market Capitalization $12.516B There Losses are nearly bigger than the capitalization of Carnival. I wish it was not true ..Carnival has done nothing wrong its just in the wrong place at the wrong time.
  2. Small ups and downs of share market one thing...... but CCL (OFFICIALLY) Loosing $4.5 Billion in a quarter I think is unrecoverable. Hertz, Carnival, RCL,Norwegian I think are heading for Chap 11 .. (Through no fault of the cruise lines.)
  3. June 2019 Carnival Cruise line fills ship 102% occupancy, Casino, Restaurants Buzz passengers happy Cruise ship Share price stay same or goes up a tiny Bit, Company pays small Dividend. May 2020 Cruise company Carnival announces no cruises until November, ships sit idle, Dividend cancelled..share price rises %300 from $9 to 40.
  4. In the recently release Financial report I saw a section ..(from memory) Two classes of share Carnival Stock issued at .01 par and Carnival Stock issued at approx $1.77 I agree on the Extra Shares issued by Carnival Diluting the current share Holding. Carnival is no longer the Fit and trim organization it was two months ago. It is very battered and bruised. now carrying $6 Billion of Junk Bond indebtedness and 8% more share holders to split a future dividend around.
  5. Capital gain is likely all you will get. The approx 4% Dividend of $2 a $50 Carnival share ...Once apon a time ago. Was good. Plus OBC made it even more appealing. The Carnival dividend is now officially stopped. If all Cruise ships start again I think it would be at least one year before the dividend could be justified. Especially since they have to now pay down $6 Billion in emergency finance. The share holder on Board Credit I imagine will continue but there is no guarantee.
  6. Do you think the CCL, RCL share price has Bottomed? I think the approx 80% price drop in Carnival and RCL share price, prices-in a lot of future pain..but, it does not necessarily mean you are buying at the best time! I think Carnivals Bond refinancing is good and timely but. Right now Carnival's last Cruises are having enormous trouble disembarking crew. (Sydney Australia issues etc.) The world-wide lock-down has 6 weeks minimum to go. After lockdown ends ships will have to get approval from Health authorities that they are safe!
  7. Do you think the CCL, RCL share price has Bottomed? I think the approx 80% price drop in Carnival and RCL share price, prices-in a lot of future pain..but, it does not necessarily mean you are buying at the best time! I think Carnivals Bond refinancing is good and timely but. Right now Carnival's last Cruises are having enormous trouble disembarking crew. (Sydney Australia issues etc.) The world-wide lock-down has 6 weeks minimum to go. After lockdown ends ships will have to get approval from Health authorities that they are safe!
  8. I think the Market is also forward Price factoring in the Diluting effect of EXTRA approx "1 Billion" shares that Carnival are issuing. Carnival issued a statement stopping the Dividend.
  9. Wedbush analyst James Hardiman said in a note on Tuesday that Carnival is suffering "a monthly cash burn of approximately $500 million" and the fresh injection of cash should keep the company afloat for the next 12 to 13 months. Ok so Laying up is Costing Carnival $500 M a month. That's $3 Billion for 6 Months worst case..I think that is do able and survivable for Carnival.
  10. Carnival RCL and NCLH Chance of Surviving. 1 Carnival NCLH and RCL did not get a bailout.. 2.New rules. No Taxes to USA Gov No Taxpayer money from USA. 3Covid19 and Cruise ships have made a lot of People very Sick and dying. 4The court cases against Cruise lines. have not started yet 5Laying ships up is still expensive, wild guess %40 of normal running costs. 6.NO ONE..NO ONE, knows how long this shutdown will go on. 7. Covid19 affects the Most popular Cruise line age-group 60-70 year olds. 8 Any on
  11. Carnival CCL is now trading at about $8.87 with a Market Capitalization of $6.604 Billion. Lets think about that. Virgin Cruises Just paid approx 800 Million (estimate) for one new ship. For the cost of eight Virgin ships you could own / buy every share In Carnival and have over 50 ships. Yes 50 ships. That's a ratio of 7 to one for the same money. All you have to do is ride out the Corona Virus until a cure or Vaccine is found. I think a few venture capitalist have to be sniffing around a $6.4 billion investment with a
  12. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/ccl/financials/balance-sheet Carnival 2019 at some point in time. Assets $45 Billion Liabilities not including shareholders. $19.7 Billion My gut feel for the Cruise Line Industry is if the USA Government offers a bail out or Loan Holiday etc, then they can survive 6 months to 12 months. With a 2 to 4 year recovery period. USA would be Crazy to let it's major infrastructure industries like Airlines or Shipping / Cruise ships collapse. It would be a MASSIVE Christmas present to Gove
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