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H2O Polo Willie

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Everything posted by H2O Polo Willie

  1. Just for further information, here is the formal announcement by Genting HK: https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0507/2021050700744.pdf Obviously this is good news but the real test will be formalizing and documenting the arrangements which hopefully will happen quickly which will give all of us a bit more comfort as it appears that debt obligations have been pretty much extended into 2023 (that is a real high level short hand description of what they are doing so please don't read anything about this statement beyond that level of description). Also
  2. Apparently the CDC has issued some new recommendations and suggestions: https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/24942-cdc-will-eliminate-cruise-ship-buffet-require-organized-shore-excursions.html I can hardly wait for prepackaged meals on Crystal (think Prego in a box). Might as well sail on Celebrity if that is where we are headed. And it appears they like cruise line only excursions with a suggestion that they only be pursued in countries where they are at level one on the Covid scale. As I recall something recently indicated that 80% of the world is at Covi
  3. Many thanks to all of those that have posted here. There are some really good ideas and helpful information. Now I guess I just have to get to it creating my own spreadsheet to keep up!
  4. Just a short note on the idea of pursuing Crystal in small claims court. I posted somewhere earlier (and I can't remember where) a bit of a review of the terms of Crystal's contract with its guests. To make a long story a bit short: The contract is a classic "contract of adhesion" so to speak. Either you agree to it or you don't get the service. There is no negotiation of the terms between the parties. The contract says several things: You agree to mandatory arbitration of disputes to take place in Miami before you can file any suit. You agree that there can
  5. While we have been on two previous Crystal Cruises and had one in Southeast Asia cancelled in 2020 we have never taken a world cruise. We were signed up for the 2022 world cruise but we have moved to the 2023 world cruise (Miami to Athens) due to concerns about the 2022 itinerary being "blown up" due to Coronavirus issues. Reading some of the posts I have learned a bit about the events that will occur that we have not experienced (World Games, Mix and Mingle, White Nights, etc.). But packing for shorter cruises in one world region seems pretty easy as compared to a world cruise which can hi
  6. With the CDC apparently indicating that US citizens should not travel to 80 countries worldwide as I understand it due to Covid issues, that would seem to make things a bit problematic although their authority is not worldwide and only suffices as a recommendation. But lots of countries are well behind us in terms of vaccination so it is pretty hard to figure out what will and what will not be open. Loving the 2022 itinerary but given the uncertainty, we moved to the 2023 world cruise instead which also has a good itinerary. If things are not straightened out by then - both in terms of port
  7. A bit further review of the transaction indicates that about $249 million of the cash infusion is coming from Ocean World which the document suggests is a direct wholly owned subsidiary of the Company (the Company being Genting HK). So that looks like a bit of internal financial engineering, The other $59 million is coming from an outside source - Darting. From my personal perspective I would have loved to see the additional cash flow into Crystal Cruises LLC as opposed to Dream Cruises.
  8. Interesting. Big capital infusion – about $307 million US - into Dream Cruises. That makes Dream cash healthy but one wonders how it plays out for the whole group. https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0416/2021041600043.pdf
  9. Vince - I don't have the knowledge and expertise that you have in terms of the operational real world of the travel business and you are correct that I am only looking at the "big picture" and totally from an outsider's perspective. And Jim makes an excellent point about the "Guanxi" that is important in this whole picture. I guess one of the questions is whether the existing lenders and creditors are part of the Guanxi network or outside that family and of course new investors could emerge from the Guanxi. We will see. Interesting times indeed.
  10. I don't disagree that the dates might well slip. However, I would note this is the first time we have seen a date stated for the restructuring and the end of the debt payment holiday. I think one of the major issues will be cash flow. By not servicing the debt they have preserved cash. But they still have plenty of cash burn (from page 24 of the unaudited financials): "As at 31 December 2020, cash and cash equivalents amounted to US$242.8 million, a decrease of US$352.3 million compared with US$595.1 million as at 31 December 2019. The decrease in cash and cash equivalents wa
  11. The real key here seems to be what Genting needs to do to survive. Management has listed 8 specific items in its going concern discussion in the unaudited financial results that they released on March 31. The first one listed is: "Notwithstanding the above, significant uncertainty exists as to whether the Group can achieve the plans and measures described above, and if any of the above measures which include: 1. Whether the Group can agree with its financial creditors represented in the Ad Hoc Group to implement a consensual solvent restructuring solution in the next two
  12. We are booked on the LA to Monte Carlo segment so our dates are a bit different as I read the Crystal invoice - May 8 for early payment and August 6 for final payment. That said there are lots of things going on with Crystal in terms of restructuring etc. You might want to look at the Bankruptcy thread that outlines some of those issues and it has a link the their release of unaudited financial statements. It is a matter of sharing information to enable all of us to make better informed decisions on questions like early payment. I guess at this point we have some time to make a final deci
  13. For those of you interested in Symphony itineraries, in the recently released unaudited financials. Genting made a couple of statements of interest. They prognosticate on page 22 that based on announcements coming in April 2021, by August more than 80% of their fleet capacity (which I presume includes total berths in Dream, Star and Crystal) will be operational. They have a lot of idle capacity at this point including Superstar Acquarius and Gemini (1,529 berths each), Symphony (848 berths) and Genting Dream (3,348 berths). I guess they can get to 80% of their fleet capacity in August witho
  14. Vince - Point well taken. That said each individual entity has individual and distinct considerations. Genting's issues are its alone and different from other travel providers. All disclosures to investors are replete with "weasel words" induced by counsel so that there is wide latitude so that no investor can accuse the company of misrepresentation and the Genting financials have lots of those words. A person can look at the numbers and make their own conclusions. There are lots of challenges facing Genting and a lot of things have to play out right for them to sur
  15. Again not forecasting bankruptcy for Genting but they have posted notice that they have delayed release of fully audited financial statements maybe until June 30. They do provide unaudited financials which one can peruse as well as a bit of discussion on certain issues like financial restructuring. Ihttps://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0331/2021033103046.pdf I would note that the current portion of loans and borrowings due has increased from about $216 million US to $3.382 billion. I would imagine that this reclassification might be due to them dela
  16. Nothing like engaging in rampant speculation but we might as well do so. Given that the CDC has continued to hold to its no sail date of November 1 in spite of lots of pressure from many directions and the extensive 2022 world cruise itinerary coupled with Jack Anderson's comments about the difficulty in dealing with itineraries involving many countries, one wonders what the forecast would be for the world cruise to go forward. Even if the US ports could be avoided by starting the cruise in Nassau in lieu of Miami and going to a Mexican port in lieu of LA and completely ditching Hawaii saili
  17. While there are lots of older threads on Gentings financial condition, I am using this one to post some additional information on financial developments and I am not suggesting that Genting is headed for bankruptcy. It appears that they have now sold their interest in Grand Banks. This is not really surprising as it is not a real core business. The sale is to the Genting Chairman and will raise about $8.055 million US. Please see this link: https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0324/2021032400912.pdf I would note that the annual meeting is set for M
  18. A new profit warning has been posted on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange site by Genting. It is pretty generic and does not provide much news except for a pretty dismal picture of a big loss. More will come later this month when they post their year end financials. The document is attached for your information. 2021031201546.pdf
  19. Some might take Breitbart with a grain of salt. But this piece makes some interesting observations on China and how it would like to run a "Global Passport" system for the WHO. It also cites efficacy numbers for the Chinese versions of vaccine which differ pretty dramatically from Pfizer, Moderna and J&J. So recognizing that this is a world wide pandemic, does Crystal require certain vaccines or just that passengers have been vaccinated, especially when some itineraries cover Southeast Asia where it may be that the Chinese or other vaccines might predominate. Interesting food for thoug
  20. We are also booked on the LA to Monte Carlo part of the 2022 world cruise departing February 2 and it appears to me that our drop dead payment is due August 6 which is when penalties (other than the $500 administrative fee) are due. (We plan on passing the opportunity for the discounted final payment with an April date) In looking at what Crystal did for the 2021 world cruise, if I am not mistaken, they extended the final payment date to 120 days prior to departure which for us would be about October 1. But as best I can tell they did not extend the contractual penalty dates for guests who
  21. Something seems to be going on as the Genting stock price jumped again today very significantly from the previous close at 41.5 cents to 56 cents. That is a move of 26 cents in two days starting at 30 cents so it has almost doubled. I realize that there is not a lot of money involved here as these numbers are in Hong Kong dollars and not US dollars. Are private equity players or others making some kind of move? Who knows? Maybe those who are on the Thursday call mentioned above could come up with some creative ways to ask questions in the "live question and answer" session that might shed
  22. The interesting thing about this is they mention that the Stralsund facility where the Endeavor is supposedly soon to be completed might be shut down. So far as I know the only ships that the MV Werften yards are looking to build are Crystal or Dream ships and given current financial conditions and the need for new ships i don't imagine that they will be oversubscribed by new contracts from other companies but we will see. On another curious note and rife for speculation, the Genting Hong Kong stock price spiked late in their trading day from 30 cents to 41.5 cents so maybe something is goin
  23. I am not sure if this link has been posted anywhere and if so, I apologize for posting it again. This site is pretty good showing where the vaccine is being administered state by state, case and death totals and what countries have contracted for vaccines and yet more. Just FYI. https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/
  24. For McShane: While we were not waiting for the Endeavor to go to Antarctica, we were headed to that continent and had booked a January 2021 cruise on the Seabourn Quest. For obvious reasons we moved that to a November 29, 2021 sailing. Quest is bigger which might make the passage across to Antarctica and back a bit smoother sailing if the seas get rough which they can. But there is no submarine etc. but they do landings from the Quest via Zodiacs. I imagine that it would be a bit different experience but we like the itinerary. On the Endeavor matter, I have taken a quick look
  25. I just posted something on the Endeavor financing on the Bankruptcy topic for those who might be interested.
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