Arizona Sunshine

We were on the Bellissima last fall on a similar itinerary. (Yokohama, Osaka, Hiroshima, Jeju (SK), Kagoshima.) The ship is beautiful. Weather very hot and humid. This year's itinerary looks better. We wish ours had included the ports in Northern Japan. Flying fourteen hours each way (in economy!) for an eight-day cruise wasn't great planning, but I had a meeting I couldn't skip 48 hours after disembarkation. (And it's the meetings that pay for the cruises.) We did have two days in Tokyo on arrival. You're correct, the cruise primarily attracts the domestic Japanese market. AS

Carnival shares have lost 74% of their value in the last five years. In the same period, Costco shares are up 189%. In the same period, Microsoft shares are up 208%. Let's say you had invested 10 000 on April 18th, 2019: Investing in CCL, you'd have 2609 today. Investing in COST, you'd have 18 864. Investing in MSFT, you'd have 20 836. The Microsoft investor has stock worth 18 227 more than the Carnival investor. You have to cruise a lot to get those "golden eggs"! On the plus side, 100 shares of CCL (enough to get OBC) today cost significantly less than they did previously. On the down side, there's a reason for that. (It certainly could be Carnival's 29 billion dollars of debt.) Everyone, no matter how wealthy, has a limited amount of money to invest. The market offers practically-unlimited opportunities to buy into the world's best companies. Why invest in anything else? AS

We had unlimited bottled water (from Mt. Fuji!) in the dining room on our Bellissima cruise in Japan last month. Staff were always happy to provide an extra bottle on the way out. Our booking confirmation noted "INCL-600-MINERAL WATER AND COFFEE IN DINING ROOM". We didn't have a beverage package. We booked directly with MSC through the Canadian website. AS

Ah, I guess our registered tour guide was wrong. Your use of capital letters for the word "not" suggests you are quite sure. Love the passion! AS

Just a heads-up about cable cars and funiculars in Cape Town and Cape of Good Hope: there are rolling power blackouts up to six hours a day. This affects operations, and these forms of transportation may not be operating at the time you arrive. AS

Reposting this from the Cape Town forum.

We visited in January 2023. Around dusk, safety officers appear at intersections. They seem to an amalgam of a security guard and a police officer. We felt safe walking but I would exercise caution, particularly late at night. We stayed at the Westin, highly recommended. The Club lounge (access by Marriott Bonvoy status or room rate) includes an excellent cooked-to-order breakfast and evening happy hour. Our guide (mentioned and endorsed a few posts above) cautioned us against using public transportation, particularly regional trains. He said if you have a cell phone at the beginning of your journey you won't have it at the end. This is anecdotal, but we found that South Africa got a little grittier as we travelled east from Cape Town. AS

Okay, I'll play, just for fun: In the five years immediately preceding the onset of COVID-19, March 2015 to March 2020: Costco went from 129 to 283 (220% increase) Microsoft went from 43 to 173 (402% increase) But sure, they "profited from Covid". I'd say their business model was already pretty strong, and wasn't reliant on a pandemic. AS

CCL currently down 70% from June 27, 2018. Costco up 154% and Microsoft up 232% in the same period. I guess others are even riiiiicher... AS

I think someone suggested he had waded into your thread to announce the Leno thing because you have more views or followers. AS

He's either embarrassed, or angry, or both. As a bystander, I didn't think your comment to him was unkind. Somebody else's was. AS

"When people laugh at me, they are not laughing in the way that they normally would at a comedian. They are laughing with relief, because the truth has been spoken."

I was responding to your analysis. And, certainly, you can continually buy and sell the stock just to hold it over the required period. You can also sell your plasma or attend timeshare presentations as a way to make $100. None of the three holds much appeal to me --- nor, I suspect, to you, as you note only that you "could" sell at the end of May, not that you "will".

Of course, the "return" is a factor of the stock price. If the stock price stays at 9.075 for the next year, the "return" would indeed be just over 10% (provided that the shareholder took an eligible cruise and qualified for $100 in onboard credit). How likely is that? Well: The stock is down 3.5% today. The stock is down 8% in the past week. the stock is down 53% in the past year. The stock is down 86% in the past five years. So, as long as all the things that worried investors today, last week, last year, and since 2018 can be fixed by management --- while dealing with $35 billion in debt, the most recent of which carries an interest rate of 10.75 %--- I guess it's a "great time to buy".

Makes sense, thanks for clarifying.

Yes --- a reminder that most individual investors don't have the skill set to pick individual stocks, and should be in balanced mutual funds and ETFs.

Carnival stock is down 84.27% in the last five years. In that period --- to the day --- Walmart stock is up 70%, Costco is up 170%, and Microsoft is up 220%. With $1000 invested on April1st, 2018, your current holdings would be worth the following: Walmart 1701 Costco 2701 Microsoft 3195 Carnival 157 On what basis have you determined that CCL is a good place to invest your capital?

Seems to me, anyone truly bullish on CCL must be loaded right about now. FTFY

Having just returned from a few days in Cape Town, I can heartily recommend EA Travel Tours and Transport Services. Eshaam Abrahams operates a clean, comfortable car. He has completed tour and guide training. We used his services two consecutive days: once to Table Mountain and the next day to Cape of Good Hope and Simon's Town. He was happy to drop us off at the cruise terminal to embark the Norwegian Jade. As you might guess, Eshaam suffered from the lack of travel during COVID restrictions. It's my pleasure to endorse his services. eatraveltourstransport@gmail.com eatraveltoursandtransportservices.co.za AS

Carnival Corporation has lost 85% of its value over the past five years. Does that sound like a good investment or a bad investment? In the same period (Sept 2017-Sept 2022) Amazon is up 138%, Costco is up 192%, and Microsoft is up 216%. And, by the way, those were already giant companies in 2017, so you didn't need a crystal ball to pick them. Let's review: Carnival Corportion: $6457 (100 shares) invested on Sept 29, 2017 worth $956 today. Amazon : $6457 invested on Sept 29, 2017, worth $15 568 today. Costco: $6457 invested on Sept 29, 2017, worth $18 737 today. Microsoft: $6457 invested on Sept 29, 2017, worth $20 663 today. So the CCL investor is down $19 707 compared to the Microsoft investor. Something-something OBC? Every investor has a limited amount of funds to invest, whether it be $100 or $100 million. Why would you invest it in anything but the best opportunity for capital appreciation? As I've said on these boards for years, invest your money in quality companies and buy your own drinks. AS

The flooding is called Aqua Alta. (Apologies if someone already said so.) AS

Respectfully, the best way to salvage something of your loss is to invest in a better company with a brighter future. AS

It means that the bank's analyst thinks the stock will fall to that price. (From 10.72 where it is today.) AS

In a note to clients today, HSBC lowered their target for CCL to 6.80. AS

Great advice so far. I would add: Make the most of the port days before the sea days. You want to be exhausted and looking forward to a rest. Make a routine --- go to the lectures and shows even if the subject or style isn't your usual interest. I took a nap every afternoon, an indulgence I never undertake at home. Bring books --- not just new ones, but also a few of your favourites just in case the new ones aren't to your liking. I notice the TA you're on will make a stop in Bermuda. Mine (on HAL in 2019) didn't stop there and I wish we had. We sailed from Cadiz to Ft. Lauderdale for ten days (with only a stop in the Azores) and I wouldn't do it again. AS