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Steve Q

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About Steve Q

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    Frisco, Texas

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  1. While the link below pertains specifically to Carnival, it does contain interesting information that applies to the other lines as well. Specifically, Aida will begin sailing shortly and can generate positive cash flow sailing at less than 50% capacity. That did surprise me. In addition the CEO of Carnival will be on CNBC today at 4:00PM, for those interested, to discuss the industry. https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/carnival-stock-is-popping-today-heres-why-51594395651?mod=mw_latestnews
  2. Hopefully, this link will work for the video. It is only 5 minutes long. https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/07/07/royal-caribbean-and-norwegian-to-partner-on-health-protocols-for-cruises.html?&qsearchterm=norwegian https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/07/cruise-companies-hire-dr-scott-gottlieb-other-coronavirus-experts-to-help-overcome-rough-patch.html?&qsearchterm=cruise
  3. Not sure if there is a paywall for this article. RCL and NCL have enlisted an outside team to assist with enhancing their protocols. The team includes former HHS director Michael Leavitt and Dr Scott Gottlieb. One interesting quote from the article is: “However, Gottlieb believes that even without a vaccine, the cruise operators can resume business with the proper protocols in place. He says “it’s possible to create a protective bubble around the cruise experience,” adding, “It’s a controlled environment and it becomes a question of what are you capable of doing, what are you willing to do, and is there still a residual experience there that’s attractive to consumers. But it is an environment that we can control.” He said, however, that “you are never going to have a zero-risk environment.” “What we are trying to solve for is sharply reducing the risk of introducing a case onto the ship and sharply reducing the risk that if there is a case introduced onto the ship,” an outbreak is avoided.” https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/royal-caribbean-norwegian-cruise-line-enlist-health-experts-to-shape-safety-protocols-for-cruising-in-the-pandemic-era-51594047836?mod=mw_latestnews
  4. Our son has been serving in the military in Germany for the last 3 years. He and his family will be relocating to South Korea in early August. While the EU has evidently eased it’s restrictions on those traveling from South Korea, the reverse is not the case. Thus, under the current restrictions, they will all still have to be quarantined in an isolated barracks when their plane lands in South Korea. They are very much hoping that South Korea reciprocates before they arrive.
  5. This is a somewhat shocking article that appeared today. Some of the highlights include: The CDC reports that 106 cruise ships that entered US waters after March 1 were carrying people infected with COVID-19 Nearly a third of those who were infected were passengers on the vessels; the remainder were crew members Several cruise companies are disputing the CDC figures, saying the agency counted 'clinically compatible cases' that weren't confirmed by COVID-19 tests According to The New York Times, there are still 68 ships at sea with 21,506 crew members on board in the US jurisdiction alone. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8466425/More-100-cruise-ships-U-S-waters-carrying-COVID-19-patients-CDC-figures-show.html
  6. I am guessing that this may the first of many that will be scrapped over the next few years. Not certain if the order book for new ships will be paused. https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/costa-victoria-carnival-retire-ships/index.html
  7. Dr Gottlieb Is currently a resident fellow of the conservative thinking American Enterprise Institute. In addition, he is a member of the Board of Directors of Pfizer. I am sorry but I would not consider him to be a prostitute.
  8. Just read a post on the HAL Board by “Himself” (I believe he is a priest that often serves onboard many of their voyages). In his Post he states that both HAL and Seabourn are cancelling their cruises thru Nov 30. He also states that HAL will be reducing the number of ships they sail and will be a much smaller Line in the future. Not certain that this is true, but he is someone is usually pretty reliable.
  9. They were 49% owned by Royal Caribbean! Very happy that we received our refund from Regent last week. There was no way we were going to allow them to hold our money until some unknown date in the future. When any company is borrowing capital at 11-12% interest, they have significant issues. I had to ask myself if I would be willing to purchase those Bonds as a part of our portfolio. When the answer was “No”, that was a great help in deciding whether or not to accept the FCC. https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/23124-pullmantur-files-for-reorganization.html
  10. See link below. They hope to sell six ships within ninety days. Also hope to sell more in the future. I seriously doubt there will be any buyers. Perhaps they will just be scrapped. All the cruise lines recently raised capital to stay solvent. It was the absolute worst time to do so. They had to give away so much to accomplish this. The interest rates bordered on usury. https://www.ship-technology.com/news/carnival-sell-six-cruise-ships-loss-4-4bn/
  11. Scheduled sail date: May 22, 2020 (Navigator) Canceled by Regent: April 24, 2020 Refund request (submitted by TA): April 27, 2020 Refund received June 16, 2020 There is still a small amount of money missing.
  12. Evidently Spain has banned all cruise ships indefinitely. They may be welcoming some other tourists, but they do not want cruise ships visiting their shores. Not certain how long this will last, but no cruise company is going to plan on visiting Spain anytime soon. They would just be guessing that they might be able to dock there. you cannot operate a business under those conditions. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/cruises/news/travel-to-spain-again-cruise-ships-banned/#:~:text=The ban on cruise ships,19 is kept under control.
  13. Another article is below. One quote stood out for me—Still, in a research note Thursday, analyst Timothy Conder of Wells Fargo wrote that he expects Carnival to “imminently look to raise an additional $4-$5 [billion] of capital to take the company through [fiscal year 2021] under a “No Sail” order in which it’s burning about $650 million a month. Evidently, Carnival needs to raise additional funds very soon. The last round of capital raising is only a month old and they already need additional money. The last round also required them to pay exceedingly high interest rates to secure the funds. This would not inspire a lot of confidence. https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/carnival-loses-more-than-expected-amid-sailing-ban-cruise-stocks-are-sliding-51592486177
  14. Like it or not, it certainly looks like they have covered practically everything. I do believe that every cruise line will adopt some version of these protocols in the near future. I cannot imagine them varying much among the different lines. Truthfully, most of the procedures seem very logical. I am not sure what the alternatives would look like. Anyone booking a cruise today has got to expect some version of this. Costa is quite emphatic about the wearing of masks. Fortunately, when dining, at the pool, etc, there are no such requirements. Anyone considering a cruise will need to decide for themselves whether these are procedures they can accept or not.
  15. I do agree that you cannot predict the future of the Covid virus. Italy may be doing well now, but no one knows what it will be like in a few months. China’s capital is experiencing a resurgence of the virus. Last month Carnival’s chairman thought Galveston might be a good port to begin its sailings in August. Today, the nearby Houston area is experiencing heightened virus levels. My point is that it is next to impossible to successfully operate a cruise line in this environment. How can an itinerary be marketed when the future is so unknowable? Ships, crews, and port arrangements need to be made some time in advance. The required investment will be quite expensive. I just don’t know how or why Regent, or any other cruise line, would be willing to take that risk. It is just my opinion, but I believe management will decide to discontinue cruises until the picture is much much more certain. I do not believe that will be anytime soon.
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