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About pmd98052

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  1. Problem is there won't be enough vaccine for it to be "available to everyone" by April 2021. Just too many doses needed for production capabilities. Essential workers should have access and availability by then yes. Problem is right now only 20% of so of Americans even say they will take a vaccine.
  2. I wouldn't worry its going to take at least 6-12 months before anyone not in a critical role receives the vaccine. There simply won't be enough in the first few months. Doctors, Nurses, emergency services, teachers etc will all get first access.
  3. Yes progress is good but there are some problems. a) Don't know yet if the antibodies stay around long enough to actually help b) People might need multiple shots (like HPV vaccine) c) Even with all the doses ordered the first people to receive them will be front line health care staff, those at high risk (specifically >60), and other essential workers. Those "100 million" doses don't magically appear on the first day. Its going to take time to get doses produced and the first batches won't be for the general public. From what I hear its a good 6 months+ before anyone
  4. Problem is even once available there won’t be enough doses for a long time. Healthcare staff, high risk groups, and essential workers will get first access. Probably 6 to 12 months after initial doses or more before most people get a shot.
  5. Renting a narrow boat and doing our own cruise on English canals.
  6. And hence the problem we all find ourselves in...
  7. Current death rate in US suggests it wasn't worth the risk of getting that hair cut or meal out. As predicted - no cruises likely in 2020. 2021 isn't likely either unless a vaccine from Oxford or elsewhere appears quickly. However first 6-12 months of any vaccine production will be going to essential workers in healthcare and other services. Not to folks who want to go on a cruise.
  8. Errr South Korea and China have re-shut down entire cities for 25-80 new cases! Because of the high R0 that COVID has. 24 cases on a cruise ship would spread like wildfire.
  9. Well there are multiple experiements going on right now with those who are wearing, and those who are not wearing, masks. Time will tell who is right. What we do know from the 1918 pandemic is - well - lets just say lessons were learnt about masks back then. If we don't learn from history it is doomed to repeat.
  10. I can't believe you are trying to say the CFR for Flu is higher than COVID. Its not worth even trying to argue this point. No they haven't. 185 I'll even go with your number. Lets remember only 50% of kids get a flu vaccine! Most of those 185 are utterly preventable. Unlike COVID19 deaths. Which brings me to: https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Death-Counts-by-Sex-Age-and-S/9bhg-hcku Where from the CDC you can see that for the following ages of kids in school/college the following deaths: Under 1 year: 9 dead 1-4 years:
  11. Yea there is. CDC states that 0.02% CFR for child cases. That is data. Lets get your statements accurate first. You claimed more kids die from flu that COVID19. I pointed out only 105 kids died of flu this year. So no. Of course Flu deaths still happen. Not everyone gets the vaccine. Not everyone in the USA has medical coverage unfortunately. That is also the case. Look at Israel - They opened schools and have now found schools were the mega spreaders that have caused the massive problem they now face: https://www.thedailybeas
  12. On the plus side perhaps cruising will re-open soon because if you just hide the data. Its all good! https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/16/us-coronavirus-data-has-already-disappeared-after-trump-administration-shifted-control-from-cdc-to-hhs.html?fbclid=IwAR26mBB-CdPshXD5PyK_Cpro_00pcUcFO3KhfsvImrkgotn6vYWQL6U69hw
  13. Fair point my calc assumes every kid gets it. Lets assume only 30% of kids get infected. So 4,500 dead kids. And that doesn't include all the spreading the kids then go and do. Given they are often asymptomatic the risk is terrible there for others. Your move. More kids die of flu? Gimme a break. This year 105 kids died of flu. https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/21/health/child-flu-deaths-105/index.html But get this the huge difference is flu also has a vaccine (some years more effective than others sure) and many of those deaths could be prevented
  14. You've got to be kidding me right? We have kids of 12 and 14. I can assure you they are not out playing in big groups! You might have missed the news but here in the UK we've had a locked down precisely to stop the above and ensure things don't spread out of control like in Florida, Texas, Arizona etc. So again. NO. That is not happening in other places. On numbers - Look the CDC themselves say the COVID case fatality rate for kids is 0.02%. If the entire USA school population (~76 million) goes back to school the law of numbers says that is around 15,000 kids dead. I k
  15. Oh interesting as well as cancelling all flights until end of March 2021 Qantas also says they don't expect flights to start back up again until July 2021!
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