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Everything posted by darwinsrule

  1. Thanks for posting. We have N.A. booked for mid-March and price looks like it is down around $400 CAD. Maybe use it to add on a night at Pinnacle Grill. 😃
  2. Concerning yes. We just cancelled an MSC X-mas cruise, the numbers in FL and testing situation means we aren't comfortable doing X-mas. Thankfully our HAL cruise isn't until March Break so there is time for protocols to change multiple times, both with HAL and with the Canadian government (whatever government that ends up being after the election). Change is the one thing that has been constant through all of this so far.
  3. Not a fun decision but probably the smartest one you could make. Things may very likely be much better by xmas, but looking at things right now when final payment is coming up, its hard to commit those extra dollars to be paid in full. And we made the same decision about 3 weeks ago. Canceled our Dec 19th MSC Divina for a HAL cruise for our break in March.
  4. Bingo (not just a game on a cruise ship). The order isn't port related, it's a complete ban on cruise ships operating in Canadian waters.
  5. No internal info from what the Minister of Transportation is thinking, but as someone who is working in another government dept here there is still a whole of government response going on to get COVID under control and move from response to recovery. The February date was put in place so these questions of "when?" or "what if?" wouldn't be constantly asked. The focus could be on that response, and the response only. Don't expect any changes until we are on the other side of things. Now if both Canada and the U.S. have this under control by mid-summer like it increasingly look like, does that change? Possibly, but we tend to be cautious and risk adverse.
  6. Agree about the vaccination requirement (there was no way that elephant was being ignored), however NCL is also saying "trust us" on everything else. The CDC on the other hand is saying prove that you can consistanty follow a set of protocols. Grab some popcorn 'cause this ain't over yet.
  7. Something to keep in mind is that every single outbreak we saw on ships prior to the shutdown was based upon the original Wuhan version of the version. The new variants are much more transmissable and unfortunately based upon the data more deadly. The current variant driven waves in Europe, Brazil, Canada and some U.S. states (and a lot of other places) is driven by either the U.K. South African or Brailian versions. Any one of those loose on a ship would . . . well if you want to cruise again it would be a bad thing.
  8. And this is why pirate ships had planks installed. After the first couple of people walk the plank on Encore or Getaway I would put my money on the rest of the passengers being a lot more polite.
  9. Yes but he was a pinhead before COVID-19, and he will be a pinhead after COVID-19. There is no vaccine that will solve his problems.
  10. The issue is those islands will be waiting some time before enough vaccines arrive to take care of their populations. There are a lot of places where large scale COVID testing just isn't possible, and the cold chain infrastructure required for Pfizer and Moderna probably just don't work. Do the cruise lines stop in ports with ongoing infection problem?
  11. No in country vaccine manufacturing means we rely on imports of vaccines. Contract delivery schedules basically is what is comes down to. With Pfizer and Moderna, prior to the AZ approval last week, we would have enough doses to fully vaccinate 14+ million with the required two dose regime by the end of June, and enough doses for everyone (including chilidren and a few million extra imaginary Canadians) by end of Sept. AZ improves that timeline significantly. Add in J&J and it improves as well. J&J, AZ and potentially Novovax would put us around 24 million fully vaccinated by end of June under a best case scenario. The math is a bit different however and Sept really is a worst case scenario. 38 million Canadian minus approx 6 million kids under 16. Subtract out those who can't or won't get vaccinated and likely you are under 30 million. There is a massive push this week based upon the data from U.K. and what we have seen in Quebec to date to move toward extending the interval on the second does beyond the original guidelines of 3 or 4 weeks to 3 or 4 months. In doing so you could in theory have a first dose to all those who want one by the end of June. That seems to provide enough protection based upon real world experience to actualy really start to open things up and get the border open. Given everything that is happening my guess is the border opens, probably with some additional rules, by July 1st (Canada Day). But that should all be enough to the Blue Jays back in town, and I might actually be able to get to a ball game by the end of the summer. 🙂
  12. There still needs to be some place to cruise to. Having the U.S vacinated only gives you control over COVID on U.S. soil. We (Canada) will be a couple/few months behind you on the vaccination drive. That means no Alaska this year but in the bigger war it is only one casualty. The big issue is that Mexico and the islands do not have the same sort of access we (U.S. and Canada) do to vaccines. If COVID is running rampant in those locations, where exactly are ships going to?
  13. And by the time they get through all that the season is over. Sometimes the appearance of of trying to do something is the the intent, knowing full well that you have no realistic prospect of actually accomplishing your stated goal. Penn and Teller would be proud.
  14. Yup. California is slightly bigger. Just imagine taking California's population however and scattering them over a landmass larger than the entire US. Reality is vaccine production is still ramping up, as it ramps up and delivered the next thing we (collectively all the developed countries) is making sure those islands and countries we want to visit has access to vaccines supplies to take care of their populations. Cruise lines aren't going to risk going in to places where COVID is still running wild.
  15. The 38+ million is total population. I included the 'children' in the not getting vaccinated immediately part in my mind. That number should be a little more than 6 million (0-15 in age) meaning you have an initial starting point for vaccination of probably a little more than 32 million. Out of that 32 there is another subset of the population that either won't get vaccinated, or can't. Pfizer and Moderna are both have a 2 dose requirement, that is 64 million doses. My 12 year old right now falls outside the age groups that will be vaccinated right now. Hopefully as the additional vaccines come online they sort that side out. Obviously not leaving her at home alone to go on a cruise, but our next one isn't technically scheduled until Christmas this year so we really have until September (final payment) for this stuff to sort itself out. We still need to find something to book for our cancelled Koningsdam cruise from last summer. We have until the end of June to book, however I have zero confidence anyone will be sailing in June and I have an issue booking something new at this point.
  16. Failure is an interesting choice of words isn't it? Reality is each country has its own challenges in dealing with this crisis. There have been successes and failure everywhere, and with COVID those successes and failures are measured in lives saved, lives lost. The biggest risk/issue is that we do not have the domestic vaccine production that exists in the US or the UK/EU. We are dependent upon importing our vaccines, there are deals in place to change that, but that will take time. Right now we have enough doses on order from Pifzer and Moderna to vaccinate every Canadian (38 million) + 4 million more by the end of September. Now since not everyone will get vaccinated, the number of doses is going to vastly exceed demand at some point in late summer. Add in the potential additional of the AstraZenneca, J&J and Novovax and we might get there sooner in the summer, closer to what the plans are for the US and UK. Time will tell, if COVID has taught us anything it is plan for the worst, hope for the best.
  17. Doubt they will. Smart people can be stupid. Stupid people can be smart. To quote some of the advertising up here, COVID doesn't care. Unfortunately (?) infection and sickness will have the same effect as a vaccine. Keep hoping for the best however, there has been enough suffering and loss.
  18. Whatever gets you on the ship. If you are sitting at home you are missing out.
  19. And you can bet that the cruiselines are hoping that someone else makes that decision (CDC, Canadian Government, Island Government, Mexico, etc). Much easier to point the finger and go "sorry, it isn't us stopping you" at the same time internally they are saying "thank god". That is especially the case since vaccine distribution will not be uniform across all countries. Canada and the U.S. will get to the same point in terms of vaccine coverage within similar timeframes. A ship with unvaccinated passengers getting off for tours in Mexico or an island where they are still struggling is only inviting infection. And as noted previously infection means protocols kick in. Which is bad for business.
  20. Too funny. DW and I where just discussing the Cayman situation as it relates to our December 19th Divina cruise. If they hold firm, and it won't surprise me even if they have completely vacinated their population, our thinking was COZ would be the replacement (can't see Mexico refusing entry to anything). Wouldn't be the worst thing, after all the COVID baking we could use some more vanilla.
  21. This was posted on one of the other threads: http://www.mscpressarea.com/en_GB/press-releases/3713 So yeah, likely trying to get the rest of the stuff loaded so pause on everything. Sit back, grab some popcorn and wait.
  22. No longer bookable on the Canadian site either. We booked it a couple of weeks ago. Sit back and wait and see what happens I guess.
  23. Even if things do sail per the schedule, it isn't going to be the experience you were originally thinking with the restrictions that are likely to be in place. We have given up on next summer entirely, looking towards our first Xmas cruise in December 2021.
  24. For a June cruise start looking at ship sponsored excursions. Reality is, even with the Pfizer news earlier this week, I would expect that there will be restrictions from the Canadian government if cruises are going to be allowed this summer. Until there is wide distribution of vaccines, cruising without those restrictions just isn't going to be allowed on this side of the border, and everything we are being told is second quarter is when they will start to become more widely available.
  25. The good news is the 2021 Alaska season is still more than 6 months away, and as we all know at this point, a LOT can happen in 6 months. Downside is that could be a good thing (vaccines and treatments changing how we deal with this crisis), it could be a bad thing (none of those previous things and we are still in the current state of things). Reality is there may not be firmed answers on if there will be a season, and what it looks like if there is one until early spring. My fingers are crossed since we would love to get out to Vancouver (older DD wants to visit one of the universities there, why not add on a cruise). If 2021 is still tossing poop emoji's at us however, those cruises won't be happening.
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