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JimmyVWine

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Everything posted by JimmyVWine

  1. Not sure where the confusion arises. Here is the question I was commenting on, which was generated by an earlier post you made: Daniel A obviously assumed that the cruise itself was a trial cruise. Understandable conclusion given the phrasing. But I think it has been answered and straightened out.
  2. I know it sounds like a strange preference, but count me (and my wife) among those who do care. Not so much because of the bed, but instead, because of the positioning of the sofa. We always book Mini-Suites and we spend a lot of time sitting on the sofa with wine and cheese, watching the world go by. My wife has a strong preference for sitting so that we are facing the direction of travel and not moving "backwards". Likewise, if we are traveling by train, she will do everything in her power to sit facing forward. So by figuring out which way the bed is oriented on a Princess ship, you can figure out which way the sofa faces, as I have never been in a MS where the two were opposite one another. Given a choice, (and there is almost always a choice), we pick cabins with sofas that face forward using the techniques discussed in this thread. (We rely on the "fire door" method, but that schematic in this thread that shows the entry door cutouts is a great tool too.) Once we got upgraded to a Club Class MS and had no choice, and the cabin was a mirror image of what we would have preferred and were fine. Not a deal breaker. But I confess that it is a "preference." Call us crazy, but I thought I'd at least provide some twisted logic as to why one might prefer a specific orientation.
  3. I look at it this way. When I see a cruise I am interested in at a price I am willing to pay, I start to go through the pricing process. When I get to the page where the schematic of the ship appears with prices, I always see the following: Price I am willing to pay--Limited to cabins in the Forward and Aft areas. Price that I am willing to pay plus a couple hundred dollars more--Mid-Forward and Mid-Aft. Price that I am willing to pay plus a whole lot more--Mid-ship. During a "Location Upgrade Sale", all of the cabins are the same price no matter where they are located.
  4. The variant strains of Covid are far more widespread outside of the U.S. and are proving to be a game-changer in terms of readiness. I think they will slow a return to cruising more than people realize. They are mentioned and reported on here in the U.S., but we haven't been overwhelmed by these more serious, more spreadable variants...yet. I heard it reported yesterday that we are essentially in a footrace between vaccination and being inundated by another wave of peak infection/death rates and it is anybody's guess which side will win that race. In the end, I think that these variant strains all but assure that cruising cannot return in earnest until vaccinations are extremely widespread.
  5. Maybe we will be able to purchase cardboard cutouts of ourselves to lie in deck chairs around the pool! Virtual chair hogs!! Agree with you on the economic impact. Far more hotel and restaurant employees are being impacted than cruise line workers. And the sad truth is that low wage foreign workers aren't going to be high on any politician's priority list in terms of industries to move to the fast lane. There is certainly an echo chamber here of people who are ready to cruise and who think that there are sufficient precautions in place to do so. Most of the rest of the real world isn't there yet.
  6. I don't think that it is a "trial cruise". You can go to the Princess website right now and book a cabin on the 5/15 CB sailing out of Port Everglades. It isn't a "trial cruise". It is simply the first cruise to be scheduled to depart after Princess' pause that extends through 5/14. It is still anyone's guess if this sailing will actually happen, or if they will require proof of vaccination in order to board. If they do the latter, then it is likely to be an "adults only" cruise with the average age over 60.
  7. I've said this a bunch of times, and as you point out, it has particular applicability to DCL, the cruise industry has only ONE CHANCE to get this right. One more widespread outbreak such as what happened on Diamond Princess and the cruise industry will be a thing of the past. Phrases like "bet the company lawsuit" or "bet the company product rollout" are often hyperbolic. But here, it applies. Covid-free cruising is a bet the company proposition for every cruise line. "Pretty good" isn't going to be good enough.
  8. Agree. If you took a poll of PCL loyalists and DCL loyalists and asked them if they would spend $1,000 per person for a 4-5 day cruise with an itinerary of: Saturday-Depart Sunday-Private Island Monday-Sea Day Tuesday-Private Island Wednesday-Disembark You'd probably get a lukewarm reception from the PCL folks, but a resounding "YES" from the DCL folks. And I think that you will see DCL do something very much like that when they can.
  9. They are especially hurt by the loss of U.S. guests who would have to isolate upon returning home. It is natural to think that bookings would be strong around Easter. They always are. But as a whole, attendance has not met Disney's expectations. They view this as a positive because they are losing less money than they would be if they were shut down. But they are still losing money. But all those people who are staying home are crushing it with Disney+, so there is that.
  10. As with everything Covid-related, it is complicated. WDW is operating at partial capacity in part because they need to do so to remain safe. But they are also operating at partial capacity because of vastly reduced demand. They are taking "reservations" for park entry at reduced numbers and still cannot fill the slots. There are no restrictions in FL that require WDW to operate at a crawl, and yet they do. Tells you something. Not sure what their projections were in June, but I have not seen any numbers that suggest that they are operating at a profit. As for DCL, the CDC has nothing to do with it. Other cruise lines are limping along in other parts of the world, such as RCL. If DCL thought that there was any benefit to doing so, they would have joined them. They simply do not want to water down the product and I happen to think that is the right call. Wait this out and return when you can resemble what you have always been.
  11. Disney is hemorrhaging in both instances. WDW is not turning a profit. And it is way more spaced out than a cruise ship. Notice that DCL looks more like DL than it does WDW. Disney knows how to re-open, and yet their cruises are not on a pace to resume any sooner than any other cruise line. That speaks volumes.
  12. I don't think that the CDC is overlooking vaccines. While I have no inside information, I think caribill is on the right track here. My belief (assumption? guess?) is that the cruise lines have market studied this up and down and have concluded that they cannot return to profit until they can return to normal. Stop-gap cruises where the theaters are closed, or where two out of every four seats are blocked off with yellow tape, and where the number of deck chairs around the pool has been halved, and where excursions become prisoner marches of mask-wearing drones are of little interest to most people. The money will come when the cruises look like they did before, and that only happens after wide-spread vaccination. They have waited this long and they are willing to wait a bit longer until this happens. We're probably only 9-12 months away from this becoming a reality. Are there people here who want to cruise sooner than a year from now? Sure. But I don't think that the cruise lines are rushing to accommodate those people. The cruise lines want to announce: "We're back and better than ever" and not "We're back, and half of what we used to be." I think the CDC understands this. But neither they nor the cruise lines see the value yet in announcing that people are just going to have to hold out for another year.
  13. Investors aren't looking at things so short term. Remember this "one month delay" comes on the heels of a prior one month delay, which followed a two month delay, which followed a 4 month delay, and so on. Remember when people here were convinced that their Summer-2020 cruises were going to depart on schedule? And then people were absolutely positive that their Fall cruises were going to go. And the Thanksgiving cruises? You'd have to be CRAZY to think that they weren't going to go. Oops. But Christmas and New Years? Surely they are going to go. And so on. Investors are well aware of the story here, and any investor plopping down money with the assumption that this additional one month delay is going to be the last one isn't much of an investor.
  14. I have. I don’t think that there is anything yet suggesting that masks will be required in 2023 and beyond. My point is that if masks are in fact required in 2023, I will refrain from taking a cruise. If they are still required in 2025, I would take another look.
  15. I am in agreement...for now. If masks are required, that means that the overall cruise atmosphere will be altered too drastically for me to want partake. But if masks become the norm and stay that way for several years, I suppose I might break down and join in. I doubt that will come to pass, so for now, I will hold back until my time on a ship more closely resembles what I know and love.
  16. 13 days bare boating on a 42 foot sailboat in the Virgin Islands. Charlotte Amalie out to Bitter End on Virgin Gorda and back with lots of bars, beaches and ballads (Jimmy Buffet) along the way.
  17. I will only cruise after I am vaccinated. And I will only cruise if most others are vaccinated as well. Why do I care if others are vaccinated if I am? Simple. Suppose you go on a cruise with 3,000 other guests and only 500 are vaccinated. Now suppose that the ship suffers an outbreak. Which is the more likely outcome...disembarking 2,500 people at a port so that the remaining 500 can enjoy the rest of the cruise, or the entire cruise being scrapped mid-voyage with the risk of you getting stuck in some foreign port for a week or two before authorities can unscramble the whole mess? Bottom line is that I will only cruise once I have confidence that cruises will start and end on time, with no unreasonable risk of disruption. 150% fare refunds are fun, but I don't need one that badly.
  18. I think that the implication is that enough of the 400 million doses already ordered will arrive before July, so that those, coupled with the ones that will arrive by the end of July per this new agreement put us on pace to have 300 million people vaccinated by the end of July, with more doses left over for a wind down of the program later than that. That is the only way I can make sense of it, unless there is going to be a giant vacc-a-palooza on 7/31 with newly arrived doses being administered as they are unpacked from their containers. 😃
  19. That's the problem with the world today. People get their news in McNugget sized doses from drive by dispensaries. Try reading the complete statement and not just the headline. "Pfizer spokeswoman Sharon Castillo confirmed that it and BioNTech had reached a deal with the U.S. government. "We will deliver 100 million doses by the end of March, a total of 200 million doses by the end of May, and the full 300 million doses by the end of July," she said. The new vaccine orders, in addition to 400 million doses previously contracted, would allow the United States to vaccinate a total of 300 million people by July 31 using doses from the two vaccines authorized." I stand by my earlier post, and now have an even weightier arsenal of facts to back it up.
  20. I think this will be a rolling time period. In 3 months' time, there will be people (health care workers in particular) who will have been vaccinated for almost 5 months. So at that point, the CDC will have data on people in the 4 and 5 month range. If they appear to be doing well, then I would imagine that the 3 month qualifier will be moved out to 4 months, and so on, as long as the results are favorable.
  21. Ah, yes. Remember way back in the day when we were told that Covid-19 was just like the flu? That 70,000 people die in a bad year from the flu and in most years it is closer to 40,000? And remember when we were told that we will never reach those numbers with Covid so we shouldn't react any differently? We're not a year past our first death in the U.S. and we are closing in on half a million. Yep. Just like the flu. And my nephew in pee wee football is just like Tom Brady. I have plenty of relatives who have had the flu. None died. I have one close family member who contracted Covid. We put him in the ground on Tuesday.
  22. That's not even close to being true. The states with the worst numbers are the ones where people have never stopped demanding that they be able to get tattoos, go the gym, get their nails done, eat indoors in restaurants, etc., and state governing bodies have let them. If you want to know what a real lockdown looked like, research what they did in the Wuhan region of China where this all began. Despite being the point of origin, they beat this back way better than we did. The states with the worst numbers are the ones where the "we can't shut down the economy" voices "won" the argument. Over the last several months, ND and SD peaked at 200 and 161 cases per day per 100,000 people. In that same time, CA peaked at 111 and NY at 93. Go ahead and try to make the argument that ND and SD had the most stringent lockdowns.
  23. Wait. What? We went from "Anyone in the USA will be able to get a covid shot by April,..." to "... anyone that wants the [sic] to be vaccinated will be able to do so by May." Thank you for proving my point. And just watch. Your "May" will become my "End of June" at best. Mark it down. And: "Moderna Corporation developed the vaccine. Oxford is working on its own vaccine that was also funded by Operation Warp Speed." Ummm. No. Just no. Please read the link I posted earlier.
  24. So much is wrong with these "facts". But let's stick to the math. With two doses per person needed for complete vaccination, we would need 656 million doses to vaccinate everyone in the United States by April 1. Your post above promises us 100 million doses each by Moderna and Pfizer by March 31. That is 200 million doses that will vaccinate 100 million people. You go on to say that each will then add another 100 million doses, (200 million doses covering another 100 million people) by June 1. So by your own aggressive math, 200 million people out of 328 million people will be (can be) vaccinated by the end of June. (Remember, having the doses available on June 1 does not mean that the doses are in the arms by June 1. You have to add in at least another month for distribution.) So you have in one breath told us that anyone can have a shot by April 1, but you then laid out math that shows that only two-thirds of the country can be vaccinated by June 30. Warp Speed is a slogan, not a solution. I don't think that the good people in Oxford working on the Moderna vaccine even heard of the phrase. https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55041371 The term isn't even mentioned in this piece.
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