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Baron Barracuda

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  1. Have a July Amsterdam - Budapest sailing I've been waiting for them to cancel. Only other reason I can see for July - August blackout is Viking anticipates being forced to sail at reduced occupancy and has frozen bookings while they figure things out.
  2. Second shutdown would be disastrous for cruise lines. With fewer unencumbered assets bond market will be less accommodating, offering less money and demanding higher rates. Alternative would be to issue stock at fire sale price, lower than recent CCL ($14) and NCLH ($8) sales.
  3. Not a fair comparison. Royal doesn't publicize what % of bookings are FCC so can only speculate. However stands to reason that after cancelling more than 25% of total 2020 sailings (all of April - June) many customers used FCC's to re-book for next year. With an uncertain re-start date, additional 2020 cancellations yet to be announced, and many customers likely to cancel regardless of whether their sailing takes place, expect many more FCC's will be issued and redeemed this year. Total bookings will skyrocket but don't expect much new money to flow into Royal's coffers.
  4. In recent business update to investors RCL said pace of future bookings was in line with recent history. However they didn't break out how many are new money vs re-booking with FCC's. Given 55% of RCL cancellations are choosing FCC over refund (not 76%), and FCC's need to be used within one year expect majority of new '21 bookings are FCC.
  5. Wouldn't want to be the guinea pig. If sailing resumed September 1st and I had a mid-September booking would likely cancel and push it back a few months. See how things go. Satisfy myself that there are no outbreaks and get feedback on how much (if any) cruising experience changed. Imagine many others would feel the same way. That initial hesitation could result in lower load rates.
  6. The cruise lines may not care about towels and loungers, but they are petrified over their shaky financial condition. They are fighting to hang on until sailing resumes and cannot afford any possibility of new onboard outbreaks triggering a second shutdown. Therefore expect them to vigorously enforce whatever health related rules they come up with.
  7. Expect to have no problem social distancing. If they bump all the cheap cabins Luminae and Blu will be at full capacity each night, a bunch will head off to specialties and I'll have MDR all to myself.
  8. If only 50% load factor then what level of staff? Obviously need fewer cabin stewards and wait staff but will need additional servers in Oceanview. Don't want long lines at bars or Cafe al Bacio. Knowing X they'll certainly keep all the art auctioneers
  9. Great!!! That's $900 I wasn't sure I would see again. Maybe someone knows the answer to this one (always like knowing answer before contacting cruise line): Are vouchers issued by booking number or by passenger? Had dw and dd booked together in one cabin. Would prefer next cruise be dw + self. Have been told vouchers are non-transferable so can't substitute myself for dd.
  10. Too often have seen Royal and X ships emerge from refit with less public space and more cabins. More cabins = more passengers but less space / person in Windjammer, MDR, theater, etc.
  11. Appears Liberty was talking about achieving break-even EBITDA on a ship by ship basis. Even if all ships break even RCL could still experience sizable EBITDA loss from costs housed at corporate level (Fain & LLP's salaries, fuel hedging losses, etc). Also, while in normal times EBITDA may have been a valid performance yardstick imagine today investment community is more focused on pure cash flow. Hard to ignore rising interest expense from to all those new borrowings.
  12. Sorry if this is a bit off point but since Char Trav mentioned Trip Mate, does anyone know what happens if you had purchased Trip Mate insurance on the cancelled cruise? Is the premium you paid included in the FCC, can it be rolled over to the new sailing, can you get a cash refund, or are you out the money?
  13. Last year RCL had net income of just under $2B on $11B in revenue. How can they possibly break even if revenue drops 50% to $5.5B? Perhaps he meant to say 50% load allows them to cover variable costs (crew, food, fuel).
  14. That $3B cash burn excludes refunds. They are currently holding $2.4B in customer deposits. If current trend of 45% demanding cash refunds continues that will deplete cash by a further $1.1B.
  15. Is it really any different from taking store "A"'s ad for electronics or whatever to store "B" and asking them to match price. Many businesses today promote how they match competitors prices.
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