Jump to content

Price Drops


AnOnymously
 Share

Recommended Posts

While it is all about market forces and profit it is all very annoying if you are on the wrong end of it like the OP.

You didn't read OP's post properly. OP is wondering if there's a possibility of benefitting from price drops prior to final payment date, not grumbling about losing out because of one.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

When will the winter 2019 itineraries be released? We are sailing next April and were hoping to book a future cruise onboard as we are presuming we may get a decent deal and benefit from extra obc.

 

When you say "winter 2019", presumably you mean "winter 2019-20"? If so, then I imagine it will be next April, assuming it follows the same pattern as in previous years. So it may all depend on just when in April you are cruising.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I used to work in education and prices were very high for me; they haven't changed much since retiring as I usually cruise alone now my daughter has left home. In fact I hardly noticed the massive single supplement because I was no longer paying school holiday prices!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yes - prices can and do drop, and that applies just as much to day one booking prices as any other time of booking. It's just that there's an entirely understandable reluctance by some of those booking on day one to accept that it isn't necessarily going to be the lowest price ever to be had. That's the myth that the cruise companies like to put out, and in reality nobody will ever know any different unless they're checking the price they paid every hour of every day between booking and cruising.

 

It's simple economics - if they need to lower a price to sell a suite or a cabin that's what they'll do. Whether or not that price is lower than the day one price.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yes - prices can and do drop, and that applies just as much to day one booking prices as any other time of booking. It's just that there's an entirely understandable reluctance by some of those booking on day one to accept that it isn't necessarily going to be the lowest price ever to be had. That's the myth that the cruise companies like to put out, and in reality nobody will ever know any different unless they're checking the price they paid every hour of every day between booking and cruising.

 

It's simple economics - if they need to lower a price to sell a suite or a cabin that's what they'll do. Whether or not that price is lower than the day one price.

 

Forgive me, but you have stated this elsewhere as if it is fact when, as now, it is just your theory. A very logical theory, yes, but not born out in fact.

 

Like DaiB, we have booked a number of cruises when they have been released. They have not all been suites. Every single one has never been cheaper than when we booked. Some have gone up by thousands of pounds. Yes, people can get bargains on Saver fares if they are prepared to be allocated the leftovers (which we aren’t), but there are quite a few of us on here who (perhaps foolishly) check prices very regularly and are all saying the same thing. And we are basing this on hard facts, not theories.

 

Your assertion that because prices change so frequently it is inevitable that, at some given time in the future, they are certain to be cheaper would hold more water if you could provide a concrete example of a Select price that has been sold at a cheaper price (allowing for the value of On Board Credit) a considerable time after release. I would actually like to be proved wrong as having to book so far in advance in order to get the cabins we want at the lowest prices is a pain.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's simple economics - if they need to lower a price to sell a suite or a cabin that's what they'll do. Whether or not that price is lower than the day one price.

Obviously, but the observations from people who book a lot more cruises than I do is that it is happening far less frequently than a few years ago: presumably the yield management algorithms in the POLAR booking engine are doing their job and cruises are sailing at whatever profit margin Carnival demand without the need for widespread distress sales.

 

Someone posted an interesting analysis of five Select Price bookings on social media today: roughly monthly prices for the same cabin grade on each cruise he'd booked, plus OBC he received at booking, 'free' parking received and the actual price paid vs the 'brochure' price. Only one, departing next month and so well past final payment, was now below the brochure price and that was still above what he'd actually paid. His conclusion was that booking early gives the best price and that late bargains are now rare, even allowing for his grabbing a couple in the last year or so.

 

If you're only interested in price and you don't have constraints on which cabins you want/need, when you can travel, or what lead time you can afford then there are doubtless opportunities to be had, but your circumstances seem to be comparatively unusual so banging on about them isn't terribly helpful. Even booking a cheap Channel ferry crossing at short notice is a trial for me in order to fit it in around my wife's Russian lessons, singing lessons, weekday film club, book club etc etc, and we're both retired.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Forgive me, but you have stated this elsewhere as if it is fact when, as now, it is just your theory. A very logical theory, yes, but not born out in fact.

 

Like DaiB, we have booked a number of cruises when they have been released. They have not all been suites. Every single one has never been cheaper than when we booked. Some have gone up by thousands of pounds. Yes, people can get bargains on Saver fares if they are prepared to be allocated the leftovers (which we aren’t), but there are quite a few of us on here who (perhaps foolishly) check prices very regularly and are all saying the same thing. And we are basing this on hard facts, not theories.

 

Your assertion that because prices change so frequently it is inevitable that, at some given time in the future, they are certain to be cheaper would hold more water if you could provide a concrete example of a Select price that has been sold at a cheaper price (allowing for the value of On Board Credit) a considerable time after release. I would actually like to be proved wrong as having to book so far in advance in order to get the cabins we want at the lowest prices is a pain.

 

We have booked a few saver fares (at better prices than day 1 brochure price + perks) and unless we have just been extremely lucky every time we have never had what I would consider to be"leftovers" by which I presume you mean something less desirable?

 

My pet theory (and it is based on no facts at all) is that select guests can and do get upgraded either paid for or complimentary. Savers then get allocated the gaps that are created by these moves, often cabins in prime positions.

 

I am sure that someone, somewhere must get the mythical cabin that is above the disco, next to the laundry, with the balcony that is above the smoking area and overlooked by the bridge etc but to date it has never been me.

 

That said if securing a particular cabin is a priority or required for a soecific reason then day 1 booking is probably best if you can do it. Wasn't in the past but probably is now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We have booked a few saver fares (at better prices than day 1 brochure price + perks) and unless we have just been extremely lucky every time we have never had what I would consider to be"leftovers" by which I presume you mean something less desirable?

 

My pet theory (and it is based on no facts at all) is that select guests can and do get upgraded either paid for or complimentary. Savers then get allocated the gaps that are created by these moves, often cabins in prime positions.

 

I am sure that someone, somewhere must get the mythical cabin that is above the disco, next to the laundry, with the balcony that is above the smoking area and overlooked by the bridge etc but to date it has never been me.

 

That said if securing a particular cabin is a priority or required for a soecific reason then day 1 booking is probably best if you can do it. Wasn't in the past but probably is now.

 

That’s good to hear. I am being a little bit ‘tongue in cheek’ describing them as leftovers because, as your experience has shown, they aren’t all going to be poor cabins, but the prospect that it ‘could’ be one that falls short for any of the factors that you rightly mention can blight a cabin (which most who book a Select price will actively avoid) is enough to deter me.

 

I have only once booked a Saver fare. It was on Ventura and for a Penthouse for a short 4 day Cruise. There are only two on the ship and they are identical and we were happy with either. Also, one of them was booked (on a Select booking) so, unless they cancelled (which they didn’t) we actually booked a Saver knowing exactly which cabin we would have! The saving in that instance was a no brainer as we didn’t need shuttles in either port and planned to use Select Dining restaurants, so Dining preference didn’t matter (although, we were allocated our preference)!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yes - prices can and do drop, and that applies just as much to day one booking prices as any other time of booking. It's just that there's an entirely understandable reluctance by some of those booking on day one to accept that it isn't necessarily going to be the lowest price ever to be had. That's the myth that the cruise companies like to put out, and in reality nobody will ever know any different unless they're checking the price they paid every hour of every day between booking and cruising.

 

It's simple economics - if they need to lower a price to sell a suite or a cabin that's what they'll do. Whether or not that price is lower than the day one price.

The major savings against launch prices that you believe exist, could these be for fly cruises, because there are well known periods in the Caribbean, November and early December, which do exhibit major price savings because of the general low demand at that time; there are possibly similar times when the Med fly cruise demand is low, necessitating price reductions.

However in general for round trip Southampton sailings over most of the year, prices over the last few years have held up quite well. There will always be less popular cruises during the winter months that might lead to good savings, but the likelihood is that these would have started out fairly low anyway.

But like Dai and Selbourne we have never seen our launch prices for any recent cruise bettered later on, and mostly they have been selling at significantly higher prices.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Reading this thread made me decide to go and have a look at the current prices for the 2 cruises I booked for 2018 at launch. To be fair they are both on Oriana and are both perhaps more “niche” type cruises...one being Northern Lights and the other being 19 nights in the med....but the results are quite startling....

 

NLights. Our equivalent cabin ( deluxe outside) on “select”price (taking into account OBC) is now £1442 (for the cabin) more expensive and even on Saver fare is now £1258 more. All balcony cabins and suites are sold out.

 

Med Cruise. Our ED balcony cabins have sold out as have all the higher grade balcony cabins...Only the lowest grade EE left and on Select fare are now £2604 more expensive.

 

So....I think it makes a difference on the type of cruise and time of year. There will always be some offers available on the larger ships and for the more “run of the mill” cruises....Caribbean in Springtime and Canary islands more or less anytime ...but for others , book on launch if you can as you will surely get the best price.....and the chance of upgrades if available.

 

And as an aside.....we have a solo traveller with us on the N lights cruise...she is paying almost the same for an LB outside cabin for her sole use as each passenger would pay for double occupancy of that grade....£1000 less than the quote for a solo traveller now....she is happy!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Don't know about Black Friday. P&O may not offer particularly good late deals direct but you will find some agents offering extremely good late deals. It all depends on the individual cruise of course and how well it has sold.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Don't know about Black Friday. P&O may not offer particularly good late deals direct but you will find some agents offering extremely good late deals. It all depends on the individual cruise of course and how well it has sold.

Not looking for late deals, just when is the best time to buy for 2019

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If you are looking to book a reasonable way ahead, then as others have said, the best deal is usually as soon as they release the new itineraries. As P&O released 2019 back in September, then you probably need to look at prices now and if you think it is a good enough deal, book it. There will probably be some sort of New Year deal but whether it is any better than what is on offer now is anyone's guess.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Recently P&O have seemed to have learnt there lesson regarding late price reductions and have offered some very good deals on brochure price which seem to never go lower. I know in Carol Marlow days it was a regular occurrence for brochure prices being high on release and some very serious price drops and not all late deals where you could nt choose your cabin or dinner sitting that was introduced at a later date. We had the benefits and losses on both we once paid for a 14nt cruise on Azura £499 and had a excellent positioned inside cabin. On the other hand we booked a balcony cabin on Arcadia in 2007 on brochure release and not long after they were offering suites at a lot lower price than we paid. It is swings and roundabouts and is a gamble that only you can take and decide.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Forgive me, but you have stated this elsewhere as if it is fact when, as now, it is just your theory. A very logical theory, yes, but not born out in fact.

 

Like DaiB, we have booked a number of cruises when they have been released. They have not all been suites. Every single one has never been cheaper than when we booked. Some have gone up by thousands of pounds. Yes, people can get bargains on Saver fares if they are prepared to be allocated the leftovers (which we aren’t), but there are quite a few of us on here who (perhaps foolishly) check prices very regularly and are all saying the same thing. And we are basing this on hard facts, not theories.

 

Your assertion that because prices change so frequently it is inevitable that, at some given time in the future, they are certain to be cheaper would hold more water if you could provide a concrete example of a Select price that has been sold at a cheaper price (allowing for the value of On Board Credit) a considerable time after release. I would actually like to be proved wrong as having to book so far in advance in order to get the cabins we want at the lowest prices is a pain.

 

I take your point entirely, but I'm basing my comments not on theory but hard fact. I'm not saying that prices will always drop after the first day, or even that they'll usually drop - simply that they can and do drop sometimes. But unless you check the price you paid on day one every hour of every day between booking and cruising you'll never know that, because these reduced prices never stick around for long. P&O rely on that to maintain the perception that prices on the first day never fall - it's a great cashflow booster for them.

 

The reason I use the word 'fact' is that the comments are based on personal experience over the last couple of years, and before that. I watch for specific suites on specific ships, Southampton to Southampton, at what I'd consider to be reasonable prices (I know that's a very subjective matter!). I start looking on day one, and if there's nothing which meets those criteria (which there wasn't for 2019) I keep on looking pretty regularly after that. Not always, but quite often, something comes up at a later point, as it did a few weeks back, which is at a lower price than the first day price. In that case I made the booking, and an equivalent suite is now almost £400pp more than the price I paid - it may well drop again though.

 

I do not book anything other than Select Price, and I don't do last-minute bookings. I like plenty of notice, I like Freedom Dining and I know exactly which suite I want. Possibly I've been very lucky, but it's worked in each of the last two years.

 

It's not a technique I can recommend to everyone, though - if your requirements are more specific than mine (and I'm reasonably flexible on destinations and dates) the only way to be sure of getting what you want is to book early, and you may well get the best price on day one. But you can't guarantee that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not looking for late deals, just when is the best time to buy for 2019

 

Impossible to say - because prices move up and down so frequently that they're impossible to track. See above post for my recent 2019 experience. My price was lower than the first day price, and it's since increased - but I fully accept that it might go down again.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I take your point entirely, but I'm basing my comments not on theory but hard fact. I'm not saying that prices will always drop after the first day, or even that they'll usually drop - simply that they can and do drop sometimes. But unless you check the price you paid on day one every hour of every day between booking and cruising you'll never know that, because these reduced prices never stick around for long. P&O rely on that to maintain the perception that prices on the first day never fall - it's a great cashflow booster for them.

 

The reason I use the word 'fact' is that the comments are based on personal experience over the last couple of years, and before that. I watch for specific suites on specific ships, Southampton to Southampton, at what I'd consider to be reasonable prices (I know that's a very subjective matter!). I start looking on day one, and if there's nothing which meets those criteria (which there wasn't for 2019) I keep on looking pretty regularly after that. Not always, but quite often, something comes up at a later point, as it did a few weeks back, which is at a lower price than the first day price. In that case I made the booking, and an equivalent suite is now almost £400pp more than the price I paid - it may well drop again though.

 

I do not book anything other than Select Price, and I don't do last-minute bookings. I like plenty of notice, I like Freedom Dining and I know exactly which suite I want. Possibly I've been very lucky, but it's worked in each of the last two years.

 

It's not a technique I can recommend to everyone, though - if your requirements are more specific than mine (and I'm reasonably flexible on destinations and dates) the only way to be sure of getting what you want is to book early, and you may well get the best price on day one. But you can't guarantee that.

 

It may be the way you have explained your example, but it still doesn’t sound as though it supports your core assertion. I get that a price may have gone up £400pp from when you booked (even if you booked recently), as that’s normal. And it may subsequently drop again. That’s also normal. But, are you saying that, even after allowing for such things as double on board credit that you can often secure at launch, you have a specific example of a cruise where the Select price dropped significantly after launch?

 

If so, it would be really helpful to provide the specific example and figures so that we can understand the detail - type of cruise, date etc. As terrierjohn has said, many of us on here are only really interested in Southampton to Southampton Cruises. I am aware that prices for Caribbean fly cruises are dropping due to the fall in demand following the various hurricanes (and, I suspect, associated drops in air fares).

 

Whilst none of us have the ability to check prices every hour of every day, it seems highly illogical, when the underlying trend is upwards, that prices suddenly drop to a level below launch price, only to increase again so quickly that none of us who watch these things carefully has ever noticed. Seems pointless for P&O to do that as it wouldn’t achieve anything as so few people would have seen it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

When OBC increases it is usually linked to a price of the cabin going up. I still have not seen the price of any cruise cabin I have booked go down. I now look very regularly.

 

I have 8 cruises booked.

 

 

Sent from my iPad using Forums

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It may be the way you have explained your example, but it still doesn’t sound as though it supports your core assertion. I get that a price may have gone up £400pp from when you booked (even if you booked recently), as that’s normal. And it may subsequently drop again. That’s also normal. But, are you saying that, even after allowing for such things as double on board credit that you can often secure at launch, you have a specific example of a cruise where the Select price dropped significantly after launch?

 

If so, it would be really helpful to provide the specific example and figures so that we can understand the detail - type of cruise, date etc. As terrierjohn has said, many of us on here are only really interested in Southampton to Southampton Cruises. I am aware that prices for Caribbean fly cruises are dropping due to the fall in demand following the various hurricanes (and, I suspect, associated drops in air fares).

 

Whilst none of us have the ability to check prices every hour of every day, it seems highly illogical, when the underlying trend is upwards, that prices suddenly drop to a level below launch price, only to increase again so quickly that none of us who watch these things carefully has ever noticed. Seems pointless for P&O to do that as it wouldn’t achieve anything as so few people would have seen it.

 

I am indeed saying that, and I'm talking specifically about my own purchases of Southampton-Southampton cruises, as outlined above. I've been quite specific about the parameters, but giving details of actual prices paid for actual cruises wouldn't help at all because the day one prices aren't now available. I simply know that the price and other parameters I set were not matched at that point (because the prices were too high) but were matched last month after a fall in one or more of the prices. It's risen since, but may fall again - that's dynamic pricing for you. It works for airlines and it works for cruise companies.

 

You may choose to think I'm making all this up, though quite why I have no idea. All I'm doing really, and it doesn't benefit me in any way (possibly the reverse, my wife tells me, if others follow the same course), is pointing out that day one booking isn't necessarily quite the bargain that P&O (and all the agents) make it out to be. It's very much in their interests to push this line, and if you're happy to go along with that, that's fine of course, but until they offer the sort of price guarantee that Saga, I believe, offer, I remain sceptical and my own experiences support that scepticism.

 

Now if they were to offer a Saga-like guarantee on day one bookings that they'd make a partial refund for any price drop, I'd book then like a shot!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I am indeed saying that, and I'm talking specifically about my own purchases of Southampton-Southampton cruises, as outlined above. I've been quite specific about the parameters, but giving details of actual prices paid for actual cruises wouldn't help at all because the day one prices aren't now available. I simply know that the price and other parameters I set were not matched at that point (because the prices were too high) but were matched last month after a fall in one or more of the prices. It's risen since, but may fall again - that's dynamic pricing for you. It works for airlines and it works for cruise companies.

 

You may choose to think I'm making all this up, though quite why I have no idea. All I'm doing really, and it doesn't benefit me in any way (possibly the reverse, my wife tells me, if others follow the same course), is pointing out that day one booking isn't necessarily quite the bargain that P&O (and all the agents) make it out to be. It's very much in their interests to push this line, and if you're happy to go along with that, that's fine of course, but until they offer the sort of price guarantee that Saga, I believe, offer, I remain sceptical and my own experiences support that scepticism.

 

Now if they were to offer a Saga-like guarantee on day one bookings that they'd make a partial refund for any price drop, I'd book then like a shot!

 

I think we will have to agree to disagree! Unfortunately, nothing that you have said, or the partial example you have provided, has proved your point IMO. You are clearly convinced that because prices go up and down regularly it therefore must follow that, at some point, they will fall below the launch prices. But, by your own admission, you don’t have the launch prices. You are comparing the price on a given date (not at launch) against subsequent dates and, yes, that will show fluctuation. But that is not the issue we are discussing.

 

If what you do works for you that’s great. And, if you are convinced that your approach gets you the best deals then fantastic. I dislike having to book cruises at launch 2 years out but I know that, like many others on here, if I had relied on your theory I would be paying between £400 to £2,000 more for every single one of the future cruises we have booked. And that, I’m afraid, is a hard fact!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think we will have to agree to disagree! Unfortunately, nothing that you have said, or the partial example you have provided, has proved your point IMO. You are clearly convinced that because prices go up and down regularly it therefore must follow that, at some point, they will fall below the launch prices. But, by your own admission, you don’t have the launch prices. You are comparing the price on a given date (not at launch) against subsequent dates and, yes, that will show fluctuation. But that is not the issue we are discussing.

 

If what you do works for you that’s great. And, if you are convinced that your approach gets you the best deals then fantastic. I dislike having to book cruises at launch 2 years out but I know that, like many others on here, if I had relied on your theory I would be paying between £400 to £2,000 more for every single one of the future cruises we have booked. And that, I’m afraid, is a hard fact!

 

Agreed - we'll just have to disagree on this. You're still missing the central point, though, that my comparisons have always taken the launch price as the starting point, and that's exactly the issue we're discussing.

 

To be clear, on each occasion the price I paid was considerably less than the launch price, and on each occasion I only booked because the launch price had been too high but the price had fallen to a more reasonable level.

 

It's a myth that the price never falls below the launch price, largely because the cruise companies work hard to maintain the myth (though they won't offer any guarantees to back it up), but also because it's difficult for people who believe the myth ever to accept that they might not actually have paid the lowest price, and that it might just be possible for someone else to get a better deal. Such is life. I'll book on launch day when the price is right, but if it isn't I'll wait for a price drop.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My own experience over the last 3 or 4 years is that launch price taking into account the 5 or 10% reduction always available to Peninsular members is only guaranteed on launch day, and can be immediately subject to fluid price increases, as definitely occurred on our launch booking in September this year.

Then once this discount period ends the prices generally increase, although OBC can increase to compensate. Thereafter it becomes increasingly difficult to know whether the price is increasing or decreasing as regular fluid pricing takes over, unless of course you have your booking documents to refer back to.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Agreed - we'll just have to disagree on this. You're still missing the central point, though, that my comparisons have always taken the launch price as the starting point, and that's exactly the issue we're discussing.

 

To be clear, on each occasion the price I paid was considerably less than the launch price, and on each occasion I only booked because the launch price had been too high but the price had fallen to a more reasonable level.

 

It's a myth that the price never falls below the launch price, largely because the cruise companies work hard to maintain the myth (though they won't offer any guarantees to back it up), but also because it's difficult for people who believe the myth ever to accept that they might not actually have paid the lowest price, and that it might just be possible for someone else to get a better deal. Such is life. I'll book on launch day when the price is right, but if it isn't I'll wait for a price drop.

 

OK. Thanks for clarifying. I’m clearer now on what you are saying. I just wish that you had been able to evidence it with a real life example to help those of us who have found the opposite to be the case.

 

To be fair to P&O, as far as I am aware (and I’m happy to be corrected on this), they do not claim that their launch prices are the cheapest they will ever be or even imply that they will never be bettered.

 

So I certainly don’t book at launch because I’m suckered by anything P&O says or implies. It’s just that, like many other regular P&O cruisers, we have found that, in reality, the launch price has never been bettered afterwards.

 

To a degreee, it’s somewhat cosmetic for us as we have to book an accessible cabin, so have to book early as they go so quickly. But it’s nice to know that by booking at launch on our last 4 and next 5 P&O cruises we have paid around £10k less in total than if we had held off in anticipation of a price drop.

 

I appreciate that my recent experience of 9 out of 9 bookings (or daiB’s 15 out of 15) is a tiny sample in the scale of the number of bookings that P&O deals with, but it’s still 100% and until that success rate drops below 50% it’s clearly worth my while to stick with my current approach.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Please sign in to comment

You will be able to leave a comment after signing in



Sign In Now
 Share

  • Forum Jump
    • Categories
      • Welcome to Cruise Critic
      • New Cruisers
      • Cruise Lines “A – O”
      • Cruise Lines “P – Z”
      • River Cruising
      • ROLL CALLS
      • Digital Photography & Cruise Technology
      • Special Interest Cruising
      • Cruise Discussion Topics
      • UK Cruising
      • Australia & New Zealand Cruisers
      • Canadian Cruisers
      • North American Homeports
      • Ports of Call
      • Cruise Conversations
×
×
  • Create New...