Australia $ Value, Economic Direction?

Good news for some, not so good for others. :D

Good news for some, not so good for others. :D

I'm one of the 'others' - travelling next year & was hoping the AUD$$ would stay put :(

I'm one of the 'others' - travelling next year & was hoping the AUD$$ would stay put :(

Likewise, but it will not stop me travelling.:D

I'm hoping it stays put long enough for our cruise final payment in July. We booked in US$ so wont be happy if it drops too much! Still, we got 123 go out of using a US TA so I won't complain too much :D

I'm hoping it stays put long enough for our cruise final payment in July. We booked in US$ so wont be happy if it drops too much! Still, we got 123 go out of using a US TA so I won't complain too much :D

Yes, I have two with final payments in July, may need to pay them off earlier.:D

Just more ups and downs. Just makes a change from the past few months when it was pretty stable.

Commonwealth Bank has a travel card that lets you park a number of different currencies..no fees either.

I only have one upcoming cruise booked in USD. Generally its a good idea to buy some every time our dollar is up which gives you an hedge against it falling

Sue

Generally its a good idea to buy some every time our dollar is up which gives you an hedge against it falling

 

Sue

The trouble is knowing when that it is up and will not go any higher or when it is about to go down.:D

The trouble is knowing when that it is up and will not go any higher or when it is about to go down.:D

That is so true. We got caught out once... (thank goodness it was not a make or break amount)

The currency was rising so we we bought funds for a cruise later in the year. The currency kept rising to a point where we just had to buy again. Fortunately the earlier purchased funds were able to be kept aside till the rate dropped the following year and we cashed them out again for a small profit, but that was really offset by the amount of time we had to hang on.:eek:

Actually you didn't get caught really..you bought at a certain price and then the price went up again...and you bought again. If the dollar was then to go down you had a good hedge. If it keeps going up then you keep tucking more away.

Everthing thing that goes up goes down eventually. Those travel cards are a good idea go chat to your bank about them.

I have a fairly big trip organised for next year and have to pay in USD its comforting to know that even if the dollar goes right down I have enough money stashed from when the dollar was at parity or better.

Sue

This is basically what's Australia is risking. Many export-dependent non-resources industries are struggling because of the high value of the Australian dollar. Qantas is only one of them. It suffers particularly as it has become politically very difficult for Qantas to use the strong dollar to its benefit by (for example) doing expensive heavy maintenance offshore (like Virgin Australia does), where it would both be cheaper in absolute terms and even cheaper in Australian dollar terms, thus offsetting the fact that Qantas has to pay much of its flying crew in strong Australian dollar while collecting many fares in weak foreign currencies. People in many other export-dependent non-resources industries say that they are being killed by the value of the Aussie dollar, to the extent that sound, well-known business of high international reputation have simply been unprofitable for years. (A well-known winemaker was specifically bemoaning this to me a few months ago.) Hence, if there are signs that the Aussie is finally starting to weaken: Hallelujah!

Appreciate these wise and added comments from the smart Globaliser in London on the Aust.-NZ board. Am sharing here. This helps me understand more on "Dutch disease" and its meaning/history. Very helpful. Always like learning more about places where we are headed. Good, interesting insights on the impacts on Qantas with expensive hearvy maintenance and pilot pay, etc. Also, the wine production economic pressures makes sense (or cents) as an economic factor/impact/example.

This morning's Wall Street Journal has the cost of an Aussie dollar at $0.9843. During the past 30 days, that Australian dollar has gone downhill from $1.04 to now nearly at 98 cents. Every little drop helps our budgets for the early 2014 travels down under we have booked, going Sydney to Auckland, Jan. 20-Feb. 4.

THANKS! Enjoy! Terry in Ohio

For details and visuals, etc., from our July 1-16, 2010, Norway Coast/Fjords/Arctic Circle cruise experience from Copenhagen on the Silver Cloud, check out this posting. This posting is now at 106,655 views.

http://www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1227923

Appreciate these wise and added comments from the smart Globaliser in London on the Aust.-NZ board. Am sharing here. This helps me understand more on "Dutch disease" and its meaning/history. Very helpful. Always like learning more about places where we are headed. Good, interesting insights on the impacts on Qantas with expensive hearvy maintenance and pilot pay, etc. Also, the wine production economic pressures makes sense (or cents) as an economic factor/impact/example.

 

This morning's Wall Street Journal has the cost of an Aussie dollar at $0.9843. During the past 30 days, that Australian dollar has gone downhill from $1.04 to now nearly at 98 cents. Every little drop helps our budgets for the early 2014 travels down under we have booked, going Sydney to Auckland, Jan. 20-Feb. 4.

 

THANKS! Enjoy! Terry in Ohio

 

For details and visuals, etc., from our July 1-16, 2010, Norway Coast/Fjords/Arctic Circle cruise experience from Copenhagen on the Silver Cloud, check out this posting. This posting is now at 106,655 views.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1227923

Who knows where the Aussie dollar will be in early 2014, Terry in Ohio! One given is that either inbound visitors, like yourself, or outbound Aussie travellers will be happy.

I prefer to adopt a longer term view of the Aussie Dollar. As a "traveller" (that word has negative connotation in the UK :)) for the past 20 years and hoping for another 10 at least, I believe we have it pretty good at the moment. Of course, the Dollar goes up and down -- but we have just been through a rather abnormal period from mid 2009 and the following 18 months. I also think that the media ( and us) pay too much attention to the exchange rate of the US Dollar. We do after all travel elsewhere and personally I am more sensitive to the Euro and UKP rates.

The following graphs for US, UK and Euro currency are for the last 10 years. They are set up in a way that perhaps some will be unaccustomed to . Instead of showing what an Aussie dollar is "worth" -- it show how many Aussie dollars I would need to purchase a single US Dollar, UK Pound or Euro.

From these you can see that the AUD is more volatile against the US Dollar and less so against the other two. And the Aussie Dollar is still MUCH stronger against all three than the average over the 10 years. I tend to ignore the 18 months after mid 2009 - you can see how the value of the US Dollar skyrocketed almost overnight before the start of the big crash.

Of course, these are the Inter-bank rates - and hence the currencies will cost me a little more than these rates show

Barry

Cool, I still prefer the last 2 years though.:D

Cool, I still prefer the last 2 years though.:D

Yes - the last 2 years have been good to us travellers :) -- but, if you ignore the 18 months before that as an "abnormality", these last two years have been part of a longer 10 year trend.

Barry

Interesting graphs.

I'm always bemused when they talk about the high dollar, when I remember it being much higher in the past. Unfortunately, I also remember it being much lower, when I went from booking a 4 star hotel to a 2 star hotel overnight, in Turin.

Aussies still travel overseas, just adjust their budget accordingly.

(PS 2 star hotel in Turin ended up being one of our favourite hotels.)

I remember our first big overseas holiday when the exchange rate was so bad in the UK we stopped converting it...the shock of the cost of everyday things was terrifying. I'll be making hay while the sun shines...we will still travel but maybe looking out more for bargains!

Sue

I remember our first big overseas holiday when the exchange rate was so bad in the UK we stopped converting it...the shock of the cost of everyday things was terrifying. I'll be making hay while the sun shines...we will still travel but maybe looking out more for bargains!

 

Sue

My elder daughter, who lived in London at that time, told me to just treat UK pounds like equal to Aust dollars, so I wouldn't die every time I bought one piece of fruit! :)

Great graphs...pity I missed more travelling in 2009!

Speaking of horrendous exchange rates..we were staying with friends in UK and I offered to buy and cook dinner...sooo I went off to buy a leg of lamb..OMG when I read the price I wanted to know if that was for the whole flock...we ended up with lamb chops! We went over to Ireland on the same trip to visit family and they nervously asked if we minded not having steak for dinner...we sure have the good life here..mostly!

Sue

Great graphs...pity I missed more travelling in 2009!

Speaking of horrendous exchange rates..we were staying with friends in UK and I offered to buy and cook dinner...sooo I went off to buy a leg of lamb..OMG when I read the price I wanted to know if that was for the whole flock...we ended up with lamb chops! We went over to Ireland on the same trip to visit family and they nervously asked if we minded not having steak for dinner...we sure have the good life here..mostly!

 

Sue

I would have been happy with Irish stew.:D

Fortune is just being in the right place at the right time.

Unfortunately my travel timing isn't great. Going to Europe tonight when the dollar's at its weakest against the Euro - which is the last time I was there!

Seriously, agree with the comments above about our fortune.

The AUD has dropped to 0.9753, just now.:D

Of course, looking at the other side of all this.

The Aussie dollar drops to much it will be a moot point about the influx of US cruise ships.....while a good portion of the passengers are from North America, it is rounded out by quiet afewaustralias otherwise most ships would likely be sailing at 60% full.

So if the Aussie dollar drops to much....and costs go up. Bye bye local cruise boom (I'm not talking about P&O or Carnival who use A$ on board).

Things will stabilise one way or the other on 15 Sept ;)

Of course, looking at the other side of all this.

 

The Aussie dollar drops to much it will be a moot point about the influx of US cruise ships.....while a good portion of the passengers are from North America, it is rounded out by quiet afewaustralias otherwise most ships would likely be sailing at 60% full.

 

So if the Aussie dollar drops to much....and costs go up. Bye bye local cruise boom (I'm not talking about P&O or Carnival who use A$ on board).

I think that they would need to drop some prices to attract Aussies if it drops too far. That said, I don't think it will drop too much more (hope it doesn't anyway) .:D