Posted November 11th, 2017, 08:31 AM
Forgive me, but you have stated this elsewhere as if it is fact when, as now, it is just your theory. A very logical theory, yes, but not born out in fact.
Like DaiB, we have booked a number of cruises when they have been released. They have not all been suites. Every single one has never been cheaper than when we booked. Some have gone up by thousands of pounds. Yes, people can get bargains on Saver fares if they are prepared to be allocated the leftovers (which we aren’t), but there are quite a few of us on here who (perhaps foolishly) check prices very regularly and are all saying the same thing. And we are basing this on hard facts, not theories.
Your assertion that because prices change so frequently it is inevitable that, at some given time in the future, they are certain to be cheaper would hold more water if you could provide a concrete example of a Select price that has been sold at a cheaper price (allowing for the value of On Board Credit) a considerable time after release. I would actually like to be proved wrong as having to book so far in advance in order to get the cabins we want at the lowest prices is a pain.
I take your point entirely, but I'm basing my comments not on theory but hard fact. I'm not saying that prices will always drop after the first day, or even that they'll usually drop - simply that they can and do drop sometimes. But unless you check the price you paid on day one every hour of every day between booking and cruising you'll never know that, because these reduced prices never stick around for long. P&O rely on that to maintain the perception that prices on the first day never fall - it's a great cashflow booster for them.
The reason I use the word 'fact' is that the comments are based on personal experience over the last couple of years, and before that. I watch for specific suites on specific ships, Southampton to Southampton, at what I'd consider to be reasonable prices (I know that's a very subjective matter!). I start looking on day one, and if there's nothing which meets those criteria (which there wasn't for 2019) I keep on looking pretty regularly after that. Not always, but quite often, something comes up at a later point, as it did a few weeks back, which is at a lower price than the first day price. In that case I made the booking, and an equivalent suite is now almost £400pp more than the price I paid - it may well drop again though.
I do not book anything other than Select Price, and I don't do last-minute bookings. I like plenty of notice, I like Freedom Dining and I know exactly which suite I want. Possibly I've been very lucky, but it's worked in each of the last two years.
It's not a technique I can recommend to everyone, though - if your requirements are more specific than mine (and I'm reasonably flexible on destinations and dates) the only way to be sure of getting what you want is to book early, and you may well get the best price on day one. But you can't guarantee that.