Carnival has upper hand on Royal Caribbean? Even with RCL's biggest cruise ship?

Yep! Of course RCL's Harmony Of The Sea's is great but there's many negatives. I really think Carnival wins! Here's the cruise review and 1] You might be surprised at the common elements of both lines. 2] You might be surprised at the differences that Carnival has a upper hand. It's long but if you want to skip the travel part, skip to the 3 minute mark. 2017 WESTERN CARIBBEAN you want to skip the travel to the port jump to 3 minute mark.

Won't play. Won't start on u Tube for me either.

 

 

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Each line is different. Both have pros and cons. No need to compare.

Each line is different. Both have pros and cons. No need to compare.

 

Yep. I like reading reviews, but when they start comparing ships I just have to roll my eyes anymore. It just seems like its pointless. I have never been on a ship that I didn't like. Like the old saying goes " If you look for negatives, you'll find negatives"... Stay happy my freinds

I like comparison reviews! It is great for those that are hesitant to try other lines. Thank you!!

When the cruising market crashes, at some point in time, Carnival will have the upper hand for sure. There will be quite a few long faced financiers with scrap metal to sell.

I did a post, it's in my signature, that compares our experiences between RCI & Carnival. I focused on the things that people would notice or miss having been on one and not the other. Or the things we thought one did better than the other. I didn't really compare the ships, because they're all different. We truly cruise to go to certain places, I've never picked a cruise just because of one ship.

 

There are always things better between one ship/line over the others. People will still pick what they prefer as well.

When the cruising market crashes, at some point in time, Carnival will have the upper hand for sure. There will be quite a few long faced financiers with scrap metal to sell.

I agree. What goes up must come down. If the cruising industry hasn't already peaked, it is close to it. JMHO. I look forward to the benefits of that "crash." I'm using the word crash for lack of a better term. It could be fast or a gradual decline.

I'm not sure that the cruise industry is that far down the business cycle, yet. A generalized and deep recession could turn a lot of businesses sour, of course, but barring that I think cruising isn't done yet.

I'm not sure that the cruise industry is that far down the business cycle, yet. A generalized and deep recession could turn a lot of businesses sour, of course, but barring that I think cruising isn't done yet.

No, the cruise industry isn't "done." It seems to be peaking right now. We all know that peaks are followed by valleys. Will that decline show up in a year, two years...? No way to predict that from the outside. I'm not sure those on the inside could even answer that with any accuracy. When genuine sales start showing up again, as they did a few years ago, and on a consistent basis, I think we'll have a pretty good idea the slide has begun.

No, the cruise industry isn't "done." It seems to be peaking right now. We all know that peaks are followed by valleys. Will that decline show up in a year, two years...? No way to predict that from the outside. I'm not sure those on the inside could even answer that with any accuracy. When genuine sales start showing up again, as they did a few years ago, and on a consistent basis, I think we'll have a pretty good idea the slide has begun.

Yes, but how do we know this is a peak? The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached a new high on August 7, but is that the peak or just another stop on the way to 23,000? I just invested a bit of cash in a cruise line and before I did that I read a lot of analyst opinions. Yes, they could be wrong, but they're analysts because they have better insights into this than random others. And more of them are buying cruise lines right now than holding or selling. That's a clear sign that people who know don't see this as the peak, but rather as just another stop along the way to some distant peak.

Yes, but how do we know this is a peak? The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached a new high on August 7, but is that the peak or just another stop on the way to 23,000? I just invested a bit of cash in a cruise line and before I did that I read a lot of analyst opinions. Yes, they could be wrong, but they're analysts because they have better insights into this than random others. And more of them are buying cruise lines right now than holding or selling. That's a clear sign that people who know don't see this as the peak, but rather as just another stop along the way to some distant peak.

I don't know that this is the peak, obviously. Nor does anyone know that it is not. I stated in my first post, "jmho." I don't have hard stats and probably couldn't interpret them if I did. I'm just going on common sense and observation. Could I be wrong? Absolutely. I just think that if prices continue going up many folks are going to look elsewhere, cruise less frequently, or stay home. Most of us (folks who cruise with Carnival) aren't wealthy. Again, jmho. But opinion is what drives this site, so I think I'm in pretty good company. :)

I just think that if prices continue going up many folks are going to look elsewhere, cruise less frequently, or stay home.

Anything is possible, but we will probably see a reduction in the rate of increase in consumer spending before we start seeing any decrease. That's one of the ways companies like Carnival and Royal Caribbean have leverage over us consumers: Since they're mass market suppliers and the mass market typically moves slowly because of its size, they get a rather clear signal that economic conditions are changing quite a bit in advance of things really beginning to go south. They then use that signal to tamp down their capitalization of the market. They're basically playing with us, making all the right moves to squeeze from us the most amount we're willing to spend. What they really need to worry about is when it isn't consumer sentiment that is changing but actual fundamentals that are changing, like entering a recession.

Anything is possible, but we will probably see a reduction in the rate of increase in consumer spending before we start seeing any decrease. That's one of the ways companies like Carnival and Royal Caribbean have leverage over us consumers: Since they're mass market suppliers and the mass market typically moves slowly because of its size, they get a rather clear signal that economic conditions are changing quite a bit in advance of things really beginning to go south. They then use that signal to tamp down their capitalization of the market. They're basically playing with us, making all the right moves to squeeze from us the most amount we're willing to spend. What they really need to worry about is when it isn't consumer sentiment that is changing but actual fundamentals that are changing, like entering a recession.

Like you said, we'll see. Happy cruising! :)

Yep! Of course RCL's Harmony Of The Sea's is great but there's many negatives. I really think Carnival wins! Here's the cruise review and 1] You might be surprised at the common elements of both lines. 2] You might be surprised at the differences that Carnival has a upper hand. It's long but if you want to skip the travel part, skip to the 3 minute mark. 2017 WESTERN CARIBBEAN you want to skip the travel to the port jump to 3 minute mark.

Thanks for the video.

It obviously would depend on the world situation and where it's safe to go. Many ports have been omitted in the past few years/months and may shrink further.

When the cruising market crashes, at some point in time, Carnival will have the upper hand for sure. There will be quite a few long faced financiers with scrap metal to sell.

Really

Can you enlighten me on the other brands, that are going to fail, so I don't take a bath in my investments

Yep! Of course RCL's Harmony Of The Sea's is great but there's many negatives. I really think Carnival wins! Here's the cruise review

 

Thank you for the fun review! I agree with you regarding the room service menu. I LOVE ordering from room service late at night and sitting out on my balcony knowing it only cost me a tip. I do hope Carnival continues with their basic menu of good munchie food that is "free' of charge.

 

I think i will stick to smaller ships. There seems to be so much indoor space on these megas. I like the outside better. I also like the minimal need for reservations on the smaller ships.

Thanks for the great review. Watched the whole thing! Nice ship, but I did not see anything special enough to make me want to do RCCL. Maybe one day I will just to try it out, but after watching your video I feel like I was on that one! lol

Really

 

Can you enlighten me on the other brands, that are going to fail, so I don't take a bath in my investments

 

 

 

While no one knows, it has logic to it. Heavy, heavy investments in a fleet could have disastrous company effects if a bust were to happen. One could argue that RCL, NCL, even MSC would be so debt heavy it could send them under. All this of course is not what your snide reply wanted.....

 

 

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I was in the investment industry for 30 years as an analyst and portfolio manager and I stopped trying to call market tops or industry tops years ago. I was always a year or two early. We called the 2008 crash really well but we did it in early 2007 and man 2007 and most of 2008 was very painful!:loudcry: That being said one thing that concerns me about the cruise line industry is the amount of new ship builds on the schedule. You have a cyclical industry which is generating very large amounts of cash flow right now and plowing that cash flow and raising a lot a debt to expand supply rapidly. If that supply enters the market when there is a downturn in demand, coupled with high debt levels, well it could be quite nasty.

 

In Apocalypse Now Robert Duval's character said; "I love the smell of napalm in the morning." We might just get a chance to whiff some cruise line napalm in the next few years.;)

While no one knows, it has logic to it. Heavy, heavy investments in a fleet could have disastrous company effects if a bust were to happen. One could argue that RCL, NCL, even MSC would be so debt heavy it could send them under. All this of course is not what your snide reply wanted.....

I think jonbgd's reply wanted to highlight the vapid nature of the fear-mongering comments to which jonbgd was replying. "If the world collapses in on itself, then Connecticut is going to be destroyed. Perhaps living and even buying property in Connecticut is foolish." That statement has the same "logic", and the same lack of informational value, especially in light of the fact that there is both upside to investments as well as downside, and the fact that the professional industry analysts who actually have their finger on the pulse of the industry are saying that the upside is better than the downside. I know it is trendy and cool to discount intelligence, research and knowledge these days, in favor of sensationalistic exhortation, but the reality is that intelligence, research and knowledge matters. While nothing is (ever) assured, if we're going to float "logic" such as this then it makes more sense to float the logic that is better supported by intelligence, research and knowledge, or at least to refrain from floating "logic" is less supported by intelligence, research and knowledge that its opposite. It is better to say nothing than that put front-and-center the assumptions that are less likely.

 

You have a cyclical industry which is generating very large amounts of cash flow right now and plowing that cash flow and raising a lot a debt to expand supply rapidly. If that supply enters the market when there is a downturn in demand, coupled with high debt levels, well it could be quite nasty.

It could be, or it could be a big upside as well, and that's currently more likely according to the folks still doing what you used to do. More importantly, the cruise lines know the risks, and they adjust to the risks. For example, we were talking this morning about how some of the cruise lines are paying down the debt sooner than they had in the past, i.e., not relying on the cash gravy train lasting as long as they have in the past. We've done the same thing in our lives: We own our home now so if the worst happens and we both lose our jobs, we can wait out the trough in the cycle no problem. The quicker retirement of debt is critical in an economy that rocks back and forth a lot. Edited September 4, 2017 by bUU

You are right, both are possible. All I would say about industry experts is people should ask themselves who those experts work for. Some Sell Side analysts from brokerage firms have built in positive biases for the companies and industries they cover as their firms also have investment banking relationships with those companies and industries. A great deal of money is made for the brokerage firms from their investment banking business. So the more independent an analyst is the better. As for industry management, I've seen overbuilding by a number of cyclical industries over the years and it almost always ends badly for the stock price at least. Will this industry be different? Perhaps. All I'm saying is be aware of the possible risks as well as the possible rewards of a company or industry you are looking at.

 

In the other thread I mentioned the rapid paydown of the current debt loads. If I were thinking about investing in any cruise line right now one of the first things I would do would be to project the build out timing and what additional debt that company will be taking on over the next few years to see where their financial leverage will be by the end of this current build cycle.

Edited September 4, 2017 by DirtyDawg

So the more independent an analyst is the better.

And never rely on one analyst. I never go into anything unless a number of analysts agree and only a much smaller number of analysts say the opposite.

And never rely on one analyst. I never go into anything unless a number of analysts agree and only a much smaller number of analysts say the opposite.

 

If you use analysts definitely find more than a couple of independent ones.

 

But as a life long contrarian I tend to pay close attention to the minority opinion. But that's just me.