When to book... tell me if I'm missing something :)

We are getting ready for our 3rd cruise, all of which have been booked about a year in advance. I have been looking for a cruise that would work well for us next year, and have found an 11 day out of Miami end of Nov, 2018 on the Sun. There is a basically identical cruise THIS Nov, that is about 500 a person less than the one in 2018. This Nov cruise is only about a month out, so I am assuming the prices are about as low as they will get.

My question is, would it make sense for me to plan as if I have booked the Nov 2018 cruise (arrange for vacation, get fully refundable airfare, etc) and then wait until this time next year to actually book the cruise? I'm sure I am missing some important points, that is why I am here asking you pros about it :)

Thanks!

That is a very risky move for a couple of reasons. First, the cruise could sell out, unlikely, but possible. Second, even if it doesn't, the prices may just as easily go up as down. Lastly, at this point the cabin locations are typically not great. You're kind of coming up on the left-overs after normal bookings and people are already starting to upgrade. For me, for the $500, I would book what I want now. Know that I am going to get exactly what I want. Low risk. It's a risk you could take but I would do it with a solid plan B. Good luck!

I think prices for a lot of Caribbean itineraries this fall have dropped significantly in price because of the hurricanes/port switches. I'm not sure if the cruise you are looking at has been a part of this, but I would take that into consideration.

We've booked a total of six cruises. We've had prices drop on two of them (including our cruise on the Dawn in a few weeks). The rest have risen dramatically.

You are taking a risk no matter what. Do what you feel the most comfortable doing!

Thanks for the input! We may just go ahead and get the cruise next certificates on our upcoming cruise and book it then. Thanks :)

I know some people who are very good at predicting whether the price will go down after final payment based on prior trends. If you're not picky about cabin, one thing you can do is book the cheapest cabin available now and plan your vacation. Then after final payment, if the price on better cabins is lower, you should be able to upgrade to the lower price. If the price never drops, you have to be prepared to be content with the cabin you booked or to pay more later than you would pay now for the cabin you really want. It's a risk and a gamble, but it may be worth it.

Royal Caribbean is moving toward nonrefundable deposits, or pricing refundable deposits considerably higher than the nonrefundable ones. My instinct is that it is only a matter of time before NCL does this so long as the cruise industry and economy stays strong. I think that will tend to suppress some of the gamesmanship that goes on with cruise bookings, but so long as it is allowed, there is no downside to booking as soon as you think you're going to take the cruise and then watching and seeing and making a judgment. For example, you could hold a cabin until the day before final payment and then if it looks like there are still a large number of cabins left, you can cancel and hope they will drop prices, etc. Just depends on your personal risk tolerance.

I book early, grab the cabin I want, and monitor price drops until final payment. I'm too fussy about cabin choice to risk it.

We also put a next cruise down on the cabin we really want ASAP and then watch to possibly take advantage of any price drops before final payment and then decide on final payment day if we still think we got what we wanted. Usually the price goes up, but our Panama Canal 19 day one went down. The longer ones in Asia and Australia have had better last minute prices, but a lot more other variables go into that pricing. An inside cabin on the Jewel from Japan to Seattle, 20 days next May, started at $1,899, dropped as low as $949, and is now at $1,199. Interesting to see what the final price is, final payment not until February.

Interesting to hear different perspectives on this, thank you! I understand what you are saying about cabin choice, for our upcoming cruise, I was able to get a sideways cabin, which sounded appealing to me based on reviews I have read here. I do have an upgrade offer in, but it is the New Year's cruise so I am not expecting to have my offer accepted. Last year I was able to call and upgrade to a balcony for 100 bucks, that was nice! Inside cabin is acceptable to us, we don't spend a ton of time in the cabin.

The price changes you wrote of are crazy! I think that is what I am hoping for :) The Nov 11 day Southern really entices me as we have only gone Western so far. hmmmmmm, decisions decisions!

I'm in the same conundrum. Hubby and I are leaving in March '18 on our retirement cruise TA to Europe. We plan on returning in the Fall of '18. The same TA we have pegged as the most likely for return is about $500 more than a similar cruise this Fall. The price fell after final payment date. We are trying to decide if after our 7-9 months abroad if we can mentally deal with not knowing our plans until a few months before coming home.

It seems like Caribbean cruises go up as opposed to down, unless they are at an off time of year which nov might be.

We are getting ready for our 3rd cruise, all of which have been booked about a year in advance. I have been looking for a cruise that would work well for us next year, and have found an 11 day out of Miami end of Nov, 2018 on the Sun. There is a basically identical cruise THIS Nov, that is about 500 a person less than the one in 2018. This Nov cruise is only about a month out, so I am assuming the prices are about as low as they will get.

 

My question is, would it make sense for me to plan as if I have booked the Nov 2018 cruise (arrange for vacation, get fully refundable airfare, etc) and then wait until this time next year to actually book the cruise? I'm sure I am missing some important points, that is why I am here asking you pros about it :)

 

Thanks!

I don't mind your strategy (there are usually cabins available) if and only if what you save on the cabin isn't chewed up on airfare. From my aeroport the fully refundable tickets are often 2x-3x the cost of restricted tickets.

You might be able to swap your fully refundable ticket out for a cheaper restricted ticket... but you might not.

We're not that adventurous. We deposit on the cruise we want, look for price drops before final payment, and try to pick off restricted air tickets on a seat sale. We do lose out if the cruise price drops after final payment, but think we're probably even because we convince ourselves we get a good deal or air.

I certainly wouldn't try to predict cruise pricing, just because one is dropping this year does not mean a similar sailing next year will.

We always book 3 months or 2 months or even a month in and we always get the room we want. I could never book a year out thats too long of a wait for me. Plus prices almost always drop after final ;-)

WE did this on our first two RCL Cruises. They were short November cruises. I chose a date and planned for the cruise and then booked when i felt i could no longer wait for a lower price. we drive to port so no flight fees. It can be nerve wracking, but I spent a LOT of time watching the pricing on various short cruises. The first year we booked less than two weeks out the second year we booked at about 2.5 weeks out. With our 5 day Carnival cruise we booked early because i never saw a last minute pricing pattern on carnival. I have not studied NCL prices to see if they have last minute pricing. It all depends on your willingness to take a chance. Also, not sure how trip insurance works when you book last minute.

I am also questioning when I should book. Next fall we want to cruise out of CA to save money on no airfare ( probably about $1500), but the Mexican Riv Cruises are sky high with the Bliss is in the picture for 2018.

There are three of us, so we need 3/4 sails free, but there is nothing for that past June 2018 as of yet. If they don't offer the 3/4 free we won't be going, I'm not willing to pay the same price for A Mex Riv cruise w/o airfare as I would pay for Caribbean cruise with airfare.

Also, add into the mix the Carnival has 4 and 7 day cruises with similar dates and itineraries for less money.

However, I am not that excited about any of those ships. They won't hold a candle to the new Bliss. I would put a deposit down on the 7 day as a back up plan, but their deposits are non-refundable (unless you pay more) and I have already been burned once by that.

I'm not picky about cabin location, so I don't see a need to rush to pick a cabin. So, it seems like the best option would be to wait it out, or do I put a deposit down now knowing I will cancel if 3rd is not added? If We did cancel we would go with carnival as a back up.

I am just not sure I can make it a whole year waiting to book my next trip. [emoji33] I am not sure how the last minute folks do it!

@Sotermarler: If I didn't have to deal with air, I'd wait. Even if the KSF shows up, the price for pax 1 and 2 might have increased in the mean time.

There are often better rates after Xmas anyway... "wavew season" or "splash season" or whatever it's called.

Patience.

@Sotermarler: If I didn't have to deal with air, I'd wait. Even if the KSF shows up, the price for pax 1 and 2 might have increased in the mean time.

There are often better rates after Xmas anyway... "wavew season" or "splash season" or whatever it's called.

Patience.

That makes sense! I will be waiting impatiently!

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I don't mind your strategy (there are usually cabins available) if and only if what you save on the cabin isn't chewed up on airfare. From my aeroport the fully refundable tickets are often 2x-3x the cost of restricted tickets.

Very valid point, but for us, we have plenty of miles and my companion gets free flights on Southwest for all of 2018. So airfare is going to cost us less than 25 bucks round trip for both of us... in fact that is why we are looking at different cruises! We have sailed out of NOLA for the two cruises we have taken and our upcoming one, because we could drive there and not have to spend on airfare, not we have many more options!

Very valid point, but for us, we have plenty of miles and my companion gets free flights on Southwest for all of 2018. So airfare is going to cost us less than 25 bucks round trip for both of us... in fact that is why we are looking at different cruises! We have sailed out of NOLA for the two cruises we have taken and our upcoming one, because we could drive there and not have to spend on airfare, not we have many more options!

Free flights for all of 2018? Can you share? [emoji847]

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I have been booking very last minute with NCL lately as I have found the best deals. A few caveats, I am able to drive or bus to New York City. Second, I am willing to forego the free at sea amenities. Third, my stateroom location is not important to me. Fourth, my employer is very flexible with my time off requests. Just booked the Breakaway departing tomorrow for $299 plus $170 port taxes sail away interior. I then bid on an upgrade advantage to a balcony for $100 total and my bid was accepted. So, I have a seven day, solo balcony rate for less than $600. I'll use the money I saved to try to book a last minute deal in early January.

Wow! Now that's a deal

I have been booking very last minute with NCL lately as I have found the best deals. A few caveats, I am able to drive or bus to New York City. Second, I am willing to forego the free at sea amenities. Third, my stateroom location is not important to me. Fourth, my employer is very flexible with my time off requests. Just booked the Breakaway departing tomorrow for $299 plus $170 port taxes sail away interior. I then bid on an upgrade advantage to a balcony for $100 total and my bid was accepted. So, I have a seven day, solo balcony rate for less than $600. I'll use the money I saved to try to book a last minute deal in early January.

Nicely done!

It is a great advantage if you live within driving range of a port, and are either retired or flexible with time off work, to be able to take advantage of this type of deal.

I am also in that fortunate situation...

That said, if there is a special cruise that is a "must", I will book in advance to be assured of sailing on it, and getting my choice of cabin.

Other times, I can just wait for a last minute bargain...if none develop, I'll just wait for the next one...:)

Nicely done!

 

It is a great advantage if you live within driving range of a port, and are either retired or flexible with time off work, to be able to take advantage of this type of deal.

I am also in that fortunate situation...

That said, if there is a special cruise that is a "must", I will book in advance to be assured of sailing on it, and getting my choice of cabin.

Other times, I can just wait for a last minute bargain...if none develop, I'll just wait for the next one...:)

We are 15 hr drive to Miami, less to Canaveral, and the last minute (days before) price drops is the only way I can get hubby to spring for cruising. Cabins show up when people cash in the travel insurance. I'm always packed, ready to go! Just have to find a neighbor to feed the cats, jump in the car, drive all night, shower on the boat!

I'm so excited. NCL just opened up 3 and 4 th free for Oct 2018 Bliss out of CA! Yay, I was able to book today!

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Free flights for all of 2018? Can you share? [emoji847]

 

 

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Sorry to be so late in responding, been out of town and working. So here is what we did to get a bunch of free flights... Chase Southwest has 2 different cards that were offering 60k miles as a sign up bonus, so I applied for and got both of them. Southwest also offers a Companion Pass whenever you accumulate 110k miles in a calendar year... which we did with our sign up bonuses. When you make Companion Pass, you get it for the remainder of the calendar year you earned it (for us this means Oct-Dec 2017) and ALL of the next year. When I buy a ticket, either for cash or with miles, my husband gets to come along for free. You do have to pay the mandatory 911 fee, I think that is 5.60 pp each way. So with the initial 120k bonus miles and what we earn each month we should be able to fly free for all the trips we are planning. We basically live on our credit cards each month, put EVERYTHING we can on it, pay it in full each month and keep earning miles.

We just took our first trip this week, visiting kids in NC and our balance is still over 120k miles. Hope that helps!

Sorry to be so late in responding, been out of town and working. So here is what we did to get a bunch of free flights... Chase Southwest has 2 different cards that were offering 60k miles as a sign up bonus, so I applied for and got both of them. Southwest also offers a Companion Pass whenever you accumulate 110k miles in a calendar year... which we did with our sign up bonuses. When you make Companion Pass, you get it for the remainder of the calendar year you earned it (for us this means Oct-Dec 2017) and ALL of the next year. When I buy a ticket, either for cash or with miles, my husband gets to come along for free. You do have to pay the mandatory 911 fee, I think that is 5.60 pp each way. So with the initial 120k bonus miles and what we earn each month we should be able to fly free for all the trips we are planning. We basically live on our credit cards each month, put EVERYTHING we can on it, pay it in full each month and keep earning miles.

 

 

 

We just took our first trip this week, visiting kids in NC and our balance is still over 120k miles. Hope that helps!

That's great information!! Thanks for the tips!!

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