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Nikon announces ful-frame mirrorless system...with new lens mount.


pierces
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Didn't go with the "fat mirrorless" legacy mount.

 

Full announcement in a month or so.

 

Will Nikonians adapt or buy all new lenses?

 

 

A great time to be a photographer!

 

 

Dave

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Very cool news I think - looking forward to seeing Nikon (and probably Canon) get seriously into mirrorless, and full frame mirrorless in particular. It was inevitable really...and the competition should drive all mounts to improve. There will be grumbles from some Nikonians who wanted their existing lenses to work, but Nikon has to play not just to the existing market but to the new ones too - and I can see how coming out with a fat-bodied F-mount mirrorless would play well to existing Nikon DSLR customers, but not so much to newbies or those used to thinner and lighter mirrorless bodies in other mounts. So it's probably the smart play, with the adapter needing to be as flawless and native as possible so when mounting F-mount lenses, they work just as they would on a DSLR. Interesting some rumors floating around that they might go with a translucent-style adapter with its own focusing system to overcome compatibility issues. We'll see.

 

Probably the funniest part of this whole thing will be watching the very same trolls and fanboys who have been endlessly rattling on about Sony's lack of A-mount compatibility, EVFs, thin mirrorless bodies, mirrorless can't match DSLR focusing, etc etc etc, will suddenly find the adapters from Nikon to be just fine, EVFs to be the most wonderful invention since sliced bread, mirrorless ergonomics being suddenly wonderful, focusing is just as good, and so on. Pretty much every complaint Canon and Nikon DSLR die-hards have been making will be brushed aside and all the benefits of mirrorless cameras that always existed will suddenly matter.

Only the true, deep DSLR die-hards will stand by their complaints, even when the system is made by their own brand...and kudos to them for being real, unlike all the others that will go from bashing mirrorless cameras to suddenly praising them to heaven when wearing their brand's badge!

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I am a Nikon shooter, but will probably not be buying Nikon mirrorless offerings anytime in the near future. I am heavily invested in Nikon lenses. I certainly would not be willing to go out and purchase new lenses for the mirrorless camera. And the prospect of using an adapter is not appealing to me. Also, my camera is a mid-weight camera (D750). Most of my lenses are significantly heavier than the camera, so using an adapter on a mirrorless with my current lenses won't make a significant change in the amount of weight I am carrying.

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I can't see myself getting one either as a Nikon shooter, I have a perfectly good a6000 as a backup camera. As for the rest the devil is in the details. I hate EVFs, no matter who makes them, but I can deal. If the adapter is reasonable, works flawlessly with autofocus and doesn't kill too much aperture - great, my objections to the sony ones were generally that they weren't that great as opposed to their existence.

 

 

In short it will depend on how well the camera actually delivers.

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Weight is not a problem for me I'm use to heavy. I would consider one for my next body but I'm looking for capabilities beyond the D850. I don't have a problem using an adapter with old lenses but want full function AF, VR, metering ETC.

 

 

 

framer

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I am a Nikon shooter, but will probably not be buying Nikon mirrorless offerings anytime in the near future. I am heavily invested in Nikon lenses. I certainly would not be willing to go out and purchase new lenses for the mirrorless camera. And the prospect of using an adapter is not appealing to me. Also, my camera is a mid-weight camera (D750). Most of my lenses are significantly heavier than the camera, so using an adapter on a mirrorless with my current lenses won't make a significant change in the amount of weight I am carrying.

 

Depends on how big you are. I was also a D750 shooting carrying 2.8 glass. Moved to Sony. I found the size/weight difference pretty noticeable. Not in the glass, but when together in hand or in my bag.

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Going to re-up this post from earlier in the year:

 

https://enthusiastphotoblog.com/2018/01/23/why-mirrorless-is-the-present/

 

My prediction that this would be the year that mirrorless becomes dominant for serious shooters. Since I wrote the post, Sony released the A7iii, a truly great all-purpose FF for enthusiasts and pros alike. Nikon is on the verge of releasing very serious full frame mirrorless models. Rumored specs sound great.

 

As former Nikon shooter, I'll say this to Nikon shooters: It will come down to the adapter. If there is a seamless adapter providing easy complete compatibility, then it's a real winner. I would have loved to use some of my great Nikkor lenses on mirrorless... especially the 300mm f/4 PF. A top IQ, light weight 300mm prime. I loved the IQ of the Sony 100-400 but I would rather have the Nikon 300mm f/4 -- which is lighter, cheaper, faster....

 

To my fellow Sony shooters -- we should be rooting for a fantastic Nikon product. Anything that keeps the pressure on Sony to improve their product. Maybe Sony will be pushed into finally doing a lossless raw compression. Keep the pressure on Sony to continue developing lenses, if the Nikon mirrorless introduces interesting new lenses and maintains compatibility with F-mount. Etc.

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...To my fellow Sony shooters -- we should be rooting for a fantastic Nikon product. Anything that keeps the pressure on Sony to improve their product...

 

Considering what Sony has done with little competition in FF mirrorless (Leica doesn't really count), if the are pushed even a little...?

 

 

Let's just say that I've started a 2019 equipment fund. ;)

 

Dave

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Considering what Sony has done with little competition in FF mirrorless (Leica doesn't really count), if the are pushed even a little...?

 

 

Let's just say that I've started a 2019 equipment fund. ;)

 

Dave

 

If rumors are to be believed, then the Nikon mirrorless will have a couple advantages that Sony can't match:

1-- Ultra fast primes, brighter than 1.4... patented 0.95 aperture AF lens.

2-- Wider throat diameter should allow lenses with less distortion, less vignetting and better corner sharpness

3-- Use of the same mount for Medium format

 

My reaction to each:

1 -- It will be a unique advantage of the Nikon system but not a huge real world impact. Canon already had a similar advantage in the dSLR world -- larger throat diameter. But they only used it for 2 primes, both of which are older -- 50/1.2 and 85/1.2. Though there are some Canon shooters who swear by them, they never got huge adoption. They are big, heavy, with DOF that can be too narrow. While certainly some shooters would love to have a 50mm/0.95 lens, it's not something that every photographer will find themself suddenly wanting. If you don't already shoot with 1.4 primes, then it's a complete non-issue. But it will be an advantages for those shooters who do want such lenses.

2 -- This will make me a little jealous. Sony has some fantastic lenses, no question. But Nikon will have the potential for slightly better overall lenses. Of course, they are starting out way behind Sony, so it will be at least 2-3 years before they really have a competitive native lens lineup.

3 -- Potential for medium format... who cares that it can share the same mount. Unlike dSLR, where many aps-c shooters were already using full frame lenses, if Nikon sticks a medium format sensor in a future model, people will need all new lenses to take advantage. If you need all new lenses, doesn't really matter whether it's the same mount or not.

 

Advantages I expect in the Nikon mirrorless that I do hope Sony matches:

1 -- Better menus. We know Sony's menus are horrible.

2-- Lossless raw compression. I really want to see this. As of now, I get massively huge files if I really want to retain full raw quality.

3-- Superior touch screen functionality. The D850 has an excellent functional touch screen, so I'm sure the new Nikon will as well. The Sony touch screen is nearly useless.. other than moving focus points, it can't do anything else.

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  • 3 weeks later...

Naming and initial lenses:

 

Nikon Z6 - high speed, low light model (24MP)

Nikon Z7 - high-resolution model (45MP)

Z-Nikkor 24-70mm f/4

Z-Nikkor 50mm f/1.8

Z-Nikkor 35mm f/1.8

 

Followed soon after by:

 

Z-Noct-Nikkor 58mm f/0.95 (because everybody needs a $3000 "normal" lens! :))

 

****************************************

 

Canon is still mum.

 

****************************************

 

 

Additionally,Sony has made an interesting statement:

 

"expect a serious answer after the Canon/Nikon announcements

 

A7s III...?

 

A9r...?

2019 could be a very interesting year!

 

 

Dave

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Leaked specs from Nikonrumors.com:

 

Nikon-D850-vs-Nikon-Z6-vs-Nikon-Z7-specs-comparison.png

 

In body stabilization? Where did they come up with that idea?

 

Looks like a couple of capable cameras. The adapter looks just like the LA-EA4 and from the angle I can't tell if it has a deflector mirror for pure phase-detect AF. I would suspect so since to my knowledge, none of Nikon's current lens lineup are equipped with linear-drive motors optimized for hybrid AF.

 

I guess we'll know everything tomorrow.

 

 

Dave

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Additionally,Sony has made an interesting statement:

 

"expect a serious answer after the Canon/Nikon announcements

 

 

Should we start a pool?

 

Could it be a A7s III with a 16MP insanely sensitive, global-shutter CMOS sensor that eliminates all rolling shutter effects?

 

What's Canon's plan? Will they introduce a new mount or just rip the mirror out and go with a fat mirrorless? They sure have a tight R&D department!

 

Dave

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Leaked specs from Nikonrumors.com:

 

Nikon-D850-vs-Nikon-Z6-vs-Nikon-Z7-specs-comparison.png

 

In body stabilization? Where did they come up with that idea?

 

Looks like a couple of capable cameras. The adapter looks just like the LA-EA4 and from the angle I can't tell if it has a deflector mirror for pure phase-detect AF. I would suspect so since to my knowledge, none of Nikon's current lens lineup are equipped with linear-drive motors optimized for hybrid AF.

 

I guess we'll know everything tomorrow.

 

 

Dave

 

Adapter looks like the LA-EA3 -- simple pass-thru adapter. While Sony A-mount only had about a dozen lenses with internal focus, which can fully operate with the LAEA3, Nikon has about 50 lenses with internal motors. No, not optimized for hybrid AF -- but just like the Sony A-mount SSM lenses, they will work fine with the OSPDAF.

 

Looking at the specs... all I can say is wow. It's also quite possible that the Z6 is using a variation of the A7iii sensor, expect similar performance.

Meanwhile, the Z7 seems to be using a variation of the D850 sensor -- so expect a sensor that beats the A7riii at low ISO, but the A7riii taking a small advantage at high ISO.

 

As to the other specs... Anybody who said Nikon won't ever catch up to Sony......

It appears they have caught up.

 

Here are the questions and some speculated answers:

1-- The biggest, how good is the autofocus? Rumor sites report "faster than Sony" but that sounds like a bunch of puffery. Will is truly be as good as Sony? There isn't much to go on, but the Nikon "1" models had exceptional OSPDAF. (Sony's current OSPDAF is actually derived from licensing indirectly from the Nikon "1" system). So there is at least some reason to believe that the AF will be great. But it's mostly an unknown.

2-- 12 fps and 9 fps -- Wow. The A7riii and A7iii are both 10 fps and 8 fps with "live view." So my question for Nikon, would be that "live view" -- Do they suffer from the "slide show" effect that you get with Sony at 10 fps? Or do they get a "live view" at 12 fps and 9 fps? If so, then they have beaten Sony with that spec. If they get the "slide show" effect, then it's less impressive.

3-- Silent shooting -- One of the strengths of the Sony system. No idea of the capability in the Nikon mirrorless. They may be able to match Sony, it may be totally absent, or anywhere in between.

4-- IBIS -- It's there first IBIS cameras. It's never been an exclusive Sony technology. But how good will Nikon's version be? Will they offer hybrid OSS/IBIS like Sony with some lenses? Or are they going IBIS only, like Sony A-mount?

5-- Eye-AF -- A really nice feature in Sony.... to what extent does Nikon use it? Or do they solely have face detect?

6-- Adapted lens functionality. As noted above, appears to be an LAEA3 style adapter. The question is, how well do adapted lenses work? Do they truly get fast autofocus? Do they get the 12 fps?

7-- Price: First generation has new R&D costs, new equipment costs. Will they be able to match Sony in approximate pricing? I strongly suspect they will. I expect the Z6 to essentially be a $2000 body, but they may sell it as a $2800 kit with 24-70/4 lens. I expect the Z7 to about a $3400 body (I don't think they want to slash under the D850 pricing).

 

Almost definite advantages of the Nikon over the Sony:

 

1-- Lossless raw compression! (I know neither Pierces or Zackiwdawg shoot much raw, but lossless raw compression is something Sony raw shooters have been asking for and Nikon already has)

2-- More functional touch menus.

3-- This one is a bit subjective, but for just 25 more grams, get a bit more height in the body and a slightly deeper grip. The camera looks a bit more ergonomically comfortable. Unless you have tiny hands, with the Sony A7 models, your pinkie doesn't really fit on the camera grip.

 

As Pierces is fond of saying, it's a great time to be a photographer. Sony now has some real competition in mirrorless.

 

Canon can't be too far behind. Their installed base is going to be revolting.

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[/left]

 

 

Should we start a pool?

 

Could it be a A7s III with a 16MP insanely sensitive, global-shutter CMOS sensor that eliminates all rolling shutter effects?

 

What's Canon's plan? Will they introduce a new mount or just rip the mirror out and go with a fat mirrorless? They sure have a tight R&D department!

 

Dave

 

The 'expect Sony to answer" sounds like empty marketing gibberish. Yes, eventually Sony will introduce new products. And you can call those new products their "answer."

I don't think Sony is waiting in the wings, ready to pounce, with a shocking new Sony A7iv. For the time being, Sony has already put their best foot forward.

In another year or two, they will progress a bit more. (As will the competition).

 

So now, I'm not expecting an Earth shattering A7s model: The A7s has always been a niche model with minimal sales. The A7 basic and A7r models are the market drivers.

If Sony does anything else "big" this year -- My guess would be major upgrades to the A6xxx series. Remember, great AF came to the A6xxx series before it came to the A7 series. Easier to put advanced technologies in a smaller sensor.

So perhaps see an aps-c version of the A9 -- An A6xxx that shoots 20 frames per second with a silent blackout free viewfinder.

 

 

*IF* Sony does anything big, that's what I'm expecting. But Sony may continue to sit back fairly quietly, having already played their best hand.

 

As to Canon -- The Nikon release will put big pressure on Canon. The 6Dii was a dud.

They have massive market share -- but they will start to lose the high end customers.

They will now leak customers not just to Sony, but Nikon as well.

And potential upgraders will slow down their Canon purchases, while waiting to see Canon's full frame plans.

 

So I would strongly suspect we will see Canon full frame before the end of the year.

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The 'expect Sony to answer" sounds like empty marketing gibberish.

Damn that Sony! None of the "real" camera companies do that rubbish! :)

As to Canon -- The Nikon release will put big pressure on Canon. The 6Dii was a dud.

They have massive market share -- but they will start to lose the high end customers.

They will now leak customers not just to Sony, but Nikon as well.

And potential upgraders will slow down their Canon purchases, while waiting to see Canon's full frame plans.

 

So I would strongly suspect we will see Canon full frame before the end of the year.

 

The full-frame market in the US is a small part of total camera sales but it is important since it is a bragging right and a segment where actual profits exist. As of mid-year, Sony holds 40%, Canon 33% and Nikon 26%. Keep in mind that this period includes the D850 and the A7M3, both very much in demand. If the Z6 and Z7 come in equal to or less expensive than the corresponding Sony models, they may have an impact, but one would also expect the Z6/Z7 sales to drain from Nikon's FF DSLR sales. The camera with the most potential impact might be the Canon since a fair segment of Canon shooters don't really shop, they just buy the next Canon. Again, this will cannibalize DSLR sales and Canon is very protective of that segment. Maybe they introduce a new mount with a few lenses, try to undersell the A7M3 and target the FF entry level market.

 

As for the APS-C mirrorless market. I skipped the A6500 since it came out about six weeks after I bought my A6300, so I'm fairly interested in the next generation. The supposed leaked specs look pretty good but the retention of the FW battery would be a disappointment if true. A fairly minor modification of the grip area would add minimal bulk and make room for the FZ battery. I'm sure Sony is following my wish list closely...

 

Whatever the next year brings, I doubt we'll be lacking subject to talk about.

 

Dave

Edited by pierces
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The full-frame market in the US is a small part of total camera sales but it is important since it is a bragging right and a segment where actual profits exist. As of mid-year, Sony holds 40%, Canon 33% and Nikon 26%. Keep in mind that this period includes the D850 and the A7M3, both very much in demand. If the Z6 and Z7 come in equal to or less expensive than the corresponding Sony models, they may have an impact, but one would also expect the Z6/Z7 sales to drain from Nikon's FF DSLR sales.

 

To get hyper-technical, you need to discuss the difference between installed users and recent sales.

Sony does NOT hold 40% of the installed base of full frame cameras. Simply, for the first half of 2018, they sold 40% of the full frame cameras that were sold during that time frame.

So imagine there are 1 million full frame owners. But in the first half of 2018, only 100 full frame cameras were sold.. if Sony sold 40 of them, then they get the 40% number!

 

So what was selling in the first half of 2018:

Canon -- Full frame, nothing very recent. A dud of a 6Dii introduced in mid 2017. Canon 5D4 already at the mid-life cycle point. So no HOT sellers. But they still have a HUGE installed user base... sitting on their 6D and 5Diii cameras, ready to eventually buy another Canon full frame cameras.

Nikon -- Another huge installed user base. What were they selling first half of 2018? The $3400 D850... and nothing else. All their other full frame models date back to 2014ish.

Sony? The A9 from mid 2017, the $3000 A7r3 from late 2017, and the $2000 A7iii from early 2018. So lots of offerings, at lots of price points -- No wonder they were selling lots of cameras.

 

So what happens when Nikon releases the Z6 and Z7?

If you are a Nikon full frame owner who hasn't yet bought the D850 --- D810 owners, D750 owners, D610 owners, even D7xxx owners who are interested in full frame -- You are going to jump for the Z6 and Z7.

I know many D750 owners like myself, who switched from Nikon to Sony. But for every person that switched like me, there are tons of people who held on to their D750 and will consider upgrading to a new Nikon camera if Nikon does something exciting.

 

Sony has a bit of a problem --- That 40%? Where did they come from? Sure, some were people like yourself, upgrading from Sony APS-C or an earlier A7 model. But Sony doesn't have a huge installed full frame base. They don't have millions of users who have been shooting Sony E-mount full frame for 20 years.

 

The installed base probably looks more like: Canon 50%. Nikon 40%. Sony 10%.

 

When each brand has their own mirrorless, there will be less reason to switch. With less reason to switch, each brand will simply look to their own installed base for sales. And then that becomes the problem for Sony. How do they get new customers, when Nikon and Canon users can get mirrorless benefits without switching brands?

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Nikon -- Another huge installed user base. What were they selling first half of 2018? The $3400 D850... and nothing else. All their other full frame models date back to 2014ish.

 

The D5 was introduced in early 2016. Granted, at a much higher price point than the others listed.

 

Ken

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The D5 was introduced in early 2016. Granted, at a much higher price point than the others listed.

 

Ken

 

Correct, I should have included it. But it's not a volume leader.

 

But speaking of flagship cameras.. I want an A9..... I really do.

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To get hyper-technical, you need to discuss the difference between installed users and recent sales.

Sony does NOT hold 40% of the installed base of full frame cameras. Simply, for the first half of 2018, they sold 40% of the full frame cameras that were sold during that time frame.

So imagine there are 1 million full frame owners. But in the first half of 2018, only 100 full frame cameras were sold.. if Sony sold 40 of them, then they get the 40% number!

 

So what was selling in the first half of 2018:

Canon -- Full frame, nothing very recent. A dud of a 6Dii introduced in mid 2017. Canon 5D4 already at the mid-life cycle point. So no HOT sellers. But they still have a HUGE installed user base... sitting on their 6D and 5Diii cameras, ready to eventually buy another Canon full frame cameras.

Nikon -- Another huge installed user base. What were they selling first half of 2018? The $3400 D850... and nothing else. All their other full frame models date back to 2014ish.

Sony? The A9 from mid 2017, the $3000 A7r3 from late 2017, and the $2000 A7iii from early 2018. So lots of offerings, at lots of price points -- No wonder they were selling lots of cameras.

 

So what happens when Nikon releases the Z6 and Z7?

If you are a Nikon full frame owner who hasn't yet bought the D850 --- D810 owners, D750 owners, D610 owners, even D7xxx owners who are interested in full frame -- You are going to jump for the Z6 and Z7.

I know many D750 owners like myself, who switched from Nikon to Sony. But for every person that switched like me, there are tons of people who held on to their D750 and will consider upgrading to a new Nikon camera if Nikon does something exciting.

 

Sony has a bit of a problem --- That 40%? Where did they come from? Sure, some were people like yourself, upgrading from Sony APS-C or an earlier A7 model. But Sony doesn't have a huge installed full frame base. They don't have millions of users who have been shooting Sony E-mount full frame for 20 years.

 

The installed base probably looks more like: Canon 50%. Nikon 40%. Sony 10%.

 

When each brand has their own mirrorless, there will be less reason to switch. With less reason to switch, each brand will simply look to their own installed base for sales. And then that becomes the problem for Sony. How do they get new customers, when Nikon and Canon users can get mirrorless benefits without switching brands?

 

Ok. You win.

 

The real camera companies will keep their share and Sony's brief flash in the pan will fade when cameras with respectable performance and actual quality lenses are released. All the wedding and portrait photographers that have switched to Sony will realize the error of their ways and used FF Alphas will be the bargain of 2019. Probably A6x00 systems too since Fuji is the only APS-C camera available with gobs of dials and such.

 

At least my Sony AV receiver is well respected. ;)

 

Sarcasm filter off...

 

Sony just finished fleshing out the biggest hurdle to system adoption with the trinity of f/2.8 G-Master zooms and now the 400 f/2.8 will open the door to yet another segment. Sales of ILCs are shrinking with Mirrorless holding pretty steady and DSLRs on a pretty steep downward slope. Of the top three, the decline in overall ILC sales and the associated shrinking of the R&D piggy bank will hit Nikon the hardest. Canon's imaging group (includes printers and video) is about 28% of it's 4000B¥ (billion Yen) revenue. Sony Imaging products (includes video) is less then 8% of it's 7000B¥ total. Nikon's imaging group is responsible for 51% of a 750B¥ total. Of course the operating costs and net profit are the most important factors but Nikon's is about half of Sony's and a sixth of Canon's.

 

 

 

Nobody seems to be living paycheck to paycheck but if the downward shift in sales continues over a period of years, Nikon is standing on the smallest iceberg in a warming sea.

Perceptions change as well. Nobody predicted Sony having success in anything other than compacts (or at all) back in 2006 when the A100 came out:

 

"If you want my opinion, this Sony is designed for the needs of hobbyists and not full-time photographers, which of course makes sense. I predict it will go the way of Minolta. " - Ken Rockwell reviewing the A100 in 2006

But then:

 

"While old-guard Canon and Nikon drop features from their less expensive models to try to get you to pay more because you're already invested in their systems, Sony is trying to wipe Nikon and Canon off the map by selling an absolute top-level full-frame camera at half the price of similar Nikon or Canon cameras. Sony is actually trying to make a camera so good we can't afford not to get it." - Ken Rockwell reviewing the A7M3 in 2018

I picked Ken since he was one of the strongest critics of Sony at the onset and was pretty representative of the coverage of Sony's arrival on the big-boy camera scene. Things change. R&D and introduction of innovative products will continue to drive that change. Kodak sold 85% of all cameras globally at one point in the '70s and as late as 2005, led the world in digital camera sales. The problem with being on top is you are surrounded by downward slopes and everyone has a clean shot at you.

 

I'm happy with my camera but if in the future, someone makes one that offers a compelling reason to switch, it is after all only a tool. Albeit my current favorite tool. ;)

Dave

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A few comments... As a Nikon shooter for the last 50 years, seriously, I don't plan on going to either of the new bodies. I might consider the next D860 in a couple of years when it comes out. At my age I'm not switching my work flow. My current bodies are D3s, D810 & D500. The D810 with a couple of lenses work for most cruises.

 

 

 

Over the last 50 years Nikon was better, then Cannon was better, then Nikon, then Cannon......... Today I see little difference at the professional level in bodies, pick what you like and are most familiar with.

 

 

 

It will be interesting to see real reviews in the next couple of months.

 

 

framer

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Ok. You win.

 

The real camera companies will keep their share and Sony's brief flash in the pan will fade when cameras with respectable performance and actual quality lenses are released. All the wedding and portrait photographers that have switched to Sony will realize the error of their ways and used FF Alphas will be the bargain of 2019.

 

I think you misunderstood me. People who have switched to Sony will likely stay with Sony. People who currently shoot Nikon will likely stay with Nikon. Canon will stop leaking once they release a full frame.

 

But of all the photographers in the world today, Sony does not have 40% of them -- According to data I've seen, they have about 10-13%. This was slowly growing as they were offering something that people couldn't get from Nikon and Canon. Now that they can get those things within their brand, you'll see far less transition.

You go back to the time frame from 2000-2010, where the big 3 controlled most of the market, and their individual market share was frozen pretty solid.

 

Those who have adopted Sony are likely to stay. But market share growth will slow down tremendously.

 

But Sony isn't necessarily worried about that. They may want to sell 500,000 cameras per year. They don't necessarily care if that equates to 10% of the market or 50% of the market.

I guarantee you, Sony would rather sell 500,000 units in a big market where that equals 10%.... rather than get 50% of a market with only 100,000 units sold.

 

Tell me, if Nikon offers a camera and lenses that overall, are just a tad better than Sony all around, will you switch? No, I'm guessing you won't. You're happy with your Sony. Even if Nikon was slightly better, you wouldn't rush out the door.

 

Same will now happen with Nikon shooters -- Even if the Sony A7iii is slightly better than the Z6... why would they switch brands?

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