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CoachTerry14

Hurricane Irene

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Am going on eastern carribean cruise this week (bahamas on mon and st thomas & st maarten wed and thurs). Will this affect our cruise?

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Can't rule it out yet, but the Gulf is looking less likely. Right now directly over Florida to western Bahamas seems to be where the models are showing the track.

 

Well that sounds like my cruise from port Canaveral to the Bahamas might be in jeopardy!:eek: my DH says they may change some things.

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Is flying into MCO on Friday (around noon) going to be an issue?

 

Good question we are scheduled to fly into FLL on Saturday.

DH is worried about flights going down.:confused:

 

JMO I'll flippin drive straight through if need be, LOL We live 1 mile off I95 in VA so it's not like I can't find my way to Miami:p

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Same flight worries. Carnival Dream next Sat. We are flying into Oralndo around 1:00pm on Friday the 26th from Detroit. What to do??? Wait for a later flight if delayed or pack up the car and start driving ( 21hr drive). Will the Dream even make port on Saturday at Port Canaveral? If guess we will all know something in a few days. Gulp...stress level +++10

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No Canada for us. Poster I was responding to is leaving out of Baltimore. If they can't go south, they have to go north. I am not really concerned about our cruise as much as I am about flying int MCO on Friday.

 

we're flying late thursday to MCO (expected to land at 11:30PM). I hope that we'll get in before things start getting hairy. I don't think that my mother is going to appreciate me driving from MCO to cocoa in the middle of a hurricane. LOL

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we're flying late thursday to MCO (expected to land at 11:30PM). I hope that we'll get in before things start getting hairy. I don't think that my mother is going to appreciate me driving from MCO to cocoa in the middle of a hurricane. LOL

 

If worse comes to worse, I will get my rental car and grab a hotel room in Orlando and drive to the port of Sat.

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Tropical storm irene discussion number 4

nws national hurricane center miami fl al092011

1100 am ast sun aug 21 2011

 

the cloud pattern of irene is characterized by well-defined deep

convective banding features over the northern semicircle. The storm

still lacks much deep convection...or strong winds...over the

southern portion of the circulation. An air force hurricane hunter

aircraft investigating irene measured peak 850 mb flight-level

winds of 53 kt so far...which supports keeping the intensity at 45

kt for this advisory. Since an upper-level anticyclone is

established over the tropical cyclone and the system will be moving

over warm waters...intensification seems likely and irene is

forecast to become a hurricane by the time it reaches hispaniola.

After that...the intensity forecast is subject to more than the

usual level of uncertainty...as it depends very much on how irene

will interact with the mountainous land masses of hispaniola and

eastern cuba over the next few days. If the center moves more over

the water than indicated in the current forecast...irene will

likely become stronger than shown here.

 

The storm is being steered west-northwestward...285/17...by the flow

on the south side of a mid-level subtropical ridge over the western

atlantic. Over the next few days...a couple of troughs are forecast

to create a weakness in the ridge near the southeast u.s.

Coast...which should induce a turn toward the northwest. There is a

fair amount of spread in the track guidance models...especially at

days 4 to 5. For example...the gfdl model takes irene to the west

of the florida peninsula while the hwrf model takes it through the

northwestern bahamas. Interests in florida are advised not to focus

on the exact forecast track because of the inherent uncertainties

in longer-range forecasts.

 

Forecast positions and max winds

 

init 21/1500z 17.0n 63.2w 45 kt 50 mph

12h 22/0000z 17.5n 65.5w 55 kt 65 mph

24h 22/1200z 18.2n 68.2w 65 kt 75 mph

36h 23/0000z 18.9n 70.9w 50 kt 60 mph...inland

48h 23/1200z 19.6n 73.3w 45 kt 50 mph...inland

72h 24/1200z 21.5n 76.5w 50 kt 60 mph...over water

96h 25/1200z 24.0n 79.0w 65 kt 75 mph

120h 26/1200z 27.0n 81.5w 50 kt 60 mph...inland

 

$$

forecaster pasch

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We are sailing to Nassua, St. Thomas and St. Martaan.

 

When do you fly in? Given the multitude of posible situations 5 to 6 days out it is hard to say about your cruise departure, but your flight in on Friday or Saturday might be an issue. Timing is everything. Once your cruise sails, you will have few problems.

 

Again this far out you just do not know. The Haiti / Dom. republic mountians my rip the storm apart, but forcasts show it developing after those affects.

Edited by untailored bostonian

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We're supposed to sail on the Sensation on 8/24, what happens if this storm hits?

 

 

Is that thur. 8/25? Timing is the key, but Irene looks to be "well" south of you on Thursday. Where you might go is another question.

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Dang it! I hate hurricanes. Since we've lived in Florida (8 yrs), more have been hitting the peninsula. I much preferred the earthquakes in California- over and done- none of this waiting a week to see if you were in the cone of possibility.

 

Just hope that the islands in the Caribbean are not badly effected. Most of the population is not in a situation to handle possible devastation.

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Supposed to be on the NCL Sky out of Miami on Friday. Right now the models have it smacking into Miami that morning. Thinking about flying in Thursday night, but worried that it won't do much of a difference. Has anyone ever been scheduled to leave from a home port during a Hurricane?

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Ok, here is the latest. I'm sorry about not responding to each post, but there were too many questions to respond individually...

 

the models have shifted east today. It appears that the ts/hurricane may be torn up over Hispaniola. It is forecast to turn in to the Bahamas late wed into thursday. By Friday it will be off of the north fla / GA coast and a possibly landfall sat am in south carolina. Significant strengthening is forecast as it pulls away from the bahamas toward the se U.S.

 

***This is a new trend in the models. Obviously some of these cruises may be impacted. As someone mentioned it about the timing. I will try to answer some questions over the next few days but will be concentrating on the forecast on my site.

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My co-workers and I are sailing n the Sensation out of Port Canaveral on Aug. 25th headed for Nassau. If Irene is sitting over FL, we are wondering if she will sail at all. My husband and I have cruised Carnival many times, but not during hurricane season. If the storm is sitting directly over the Port, then our sailing may be delayed. We will monitor carnival.com closely for the next few days. We all are so anxious to start our vacation!

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my news guy kept saying it will hit florida "next thursday". I was like, huh? :confused:

 

Think I'll just stick to here and Hurricane Expert...and maybe local news for port canaveral.

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Was watching the weather channel and they were saying that CCL and RCCL were making itinerary changes, I know the Victory sails tonight, I hope someone that is on her will come on and tell us about it when they get back.

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This is a new trend in the models. /quote]

 

I am concerned about the eastward shift run after run in the models. If it stays east of Florida over the gulf stream, everyone along the SE coast needs to remain focused on Irene.

 

My son is staying on the beach at Duck NC. I sure hope it goes inland well south of there. I am sailing out of Boston on the 26th. For the moment I think I'm clear of the affects because we dock Sunday morning.

 

Those of you with Thursday, Friday, Saturday or Sunday cruise departures from any east coast port should watch their line's website for news.

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Was watching the weather channel and they were saying that CCL and RCCL were making itinerary changes, I know the Victory sails tonight, I hope someone that is on her will come on and tell us about it when they get back.

 

The port of San Juan is closed by the Coast Guard. Right now, they aren't going anywhere.

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John H posted this on his wall

 

 

From Matt Cd on Carnival Victory : "Just an update…we maybe leaving at approx 6pm now…ill keep you posted"

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Get ready for angry posts saying the cruise company needs to "do something" for the passengers.

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Tropical storm irene discussion number 5

nws national hurricane center miami fl al092011

500 pm ast sun aug 21 2011

 

irene is gradually becoming better organized in its appearance on

satellite images...with curved bands becoming better defined. The

current intensity is held at 45 kt in accordance with observations

earlier this afternoon from the air force hurricane hunters.

Another hurricane hunter plane is scheduled to investigate irene

around 0000 utc. With a well-defined upper-level outflow

anticyclone situated over the storm...the primary impediment to

strengthening over the next couple of days should be land

interaction. If irene moves over more of hispaniola or over parts

of eastern cuba it will likely be weaker than indicated

here...however if the system ends up moving to the north of both of

those land masses it could strengthen more than expected. The

official intensity forecast is somewhat higher than the latest lgem

statistical-dynamical guidance.

 

The forward motion has slowed a bit and is now near 285/15. Irene

continues to be steered by the flow on the south side of a

mid-level subtropical ridge over the western atlantic. The

west-northwestward motion is likely to continue for 1 to 2 days

which would bring the center near or over puerto rico...and near or

over the dominican republic. Over the next few days...a couple of

troughs are forecast to create a weakness in the ridge near the

southeast u.s. Coast which should induce a turn to the right around

day 3. Several of the reliable track guidance models such as the

ecmwf and gfs have shifted eastward from their previous runs and so

has the dynamical consensus. The official track forecast has been

shifted a little to the right of that from the previous advisory

and lies on the western side of the guidance envelope. It is

important not to focus on the exact forecast track...especially at

days 4 to 5 since the most recent 5-year average errors at those

forecast times are 200 and 250 miles respectively.

 

Forecast positions and max winds

 

init 21/2100z 17.7n 64.4w 45 kt 50 mph

12h 22/0600z 18.2n 66.6w 60 kt 70 mph...inland

24h 22/1800z 18.9n 69.3w 65 kt 75 mph...inland

36h 23/0600z 19.6n 71.5w 50 kt 60 mph...inland

48h 23/1800z 20.3n 73.5w 50 kt 60 mph...over water

72h 24/1800z 22.7n 76.7w 60 kt 70 mph

96h 25/1800z 25.5n 79.5w 75 kt 85 mph

120h 26/1800z 28.5n 81.5w 50 kt 60 mph...inland

 

$$

forecaster pasch

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Get ready for angry posts saying the cruise company needs to "do something" for the passengers.

I'm sure that's coming, even though I am not cruising until next month, I have been watching the weather channel like crazy.

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Get ready for angry posts saying the cruise company needs to "do something" for the passengers.

 

They should do something for the angry guests! They should reprint their cruise contracts and highlight the inclement weather and itinerary change policies. Lol. ;)

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Oasis is reversing ports someone sent from their phone yesterday.

 

Im on Oasis in less than 2 weeks now myself.

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The chance you take when you cruise during hurricane season. For that matter whenever you cruise. You never know what mother nature or life will deal you. I cruise in approx. 4 weeks myself.

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