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CoachTerry14

Hurricane Irene

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The poor woman that posted on John's site also left at the butt crack (that made me LOL) but missed the ship, nonetheless. As others have suggested, if my only alternative is to fly in day of, I think I would look for another itinerary that would allow for more room for error. That, or I would just do a different trip altogether (for example, DH and I try to change up Europe for a cruise every so often). I have read so many "day of" horror stories that I just would not choose that stress prior to a vacation. Just my $.02. YMMV, of course :D

 

Edited to say, that a butt crack non-stop is probably better than nothing. Even so, it would not be something I would risk. With so many airlines having "mechanical issues" and cancelling flights, I just could not do it.

I don't have the option of flying in the day before, also the woman had connection(s) not sure if it was 1 or multiple and do not know where she flew in from, I work on Saturdays so I have to come in the day of, 6am is the first flight out, if there was an earlier on I would have taken it, hope things work out for her.

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Another reason to have a passport. I'll be interested in how this turns out. Apparently there are several plane loads of people that missed the ship.

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Get ready for angry posts saying the cruise company needs to "do something" for the passengers.

 

They are. They are keeping them alive.

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TS Irene is in full force here in the US Virgin Islands. Wind and rain since early this morningl

 

 

Be safe Dedivah!! Prayers headed your way....

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I don't have the option of flying in the day before, also the woman had connection(s) not sure if it was 1 or multiple and do not know where she flew in from, I work on Saturdays so I have to come in the day of, 6am is the first flight out, if there was an earlier on I would have taken it, hope things work out for her.

 

Oh, I hear ya. If it had been me, I'd have just chosen a different cruise or gone somewhere else. I just don't handle stress too well. Over the last 18 years we have flown to two different family events day of and once lost an engine and had to make an emergency landing, over night stay and got in the next day (of course, missing our family events of that day) and once got to the airport on time only to have them give us excuse after excuse as to why we weren't leaving on time. Six hours later, we finally took off. Of course as a result, we got to our family event at the end of it instead of the beginning. When a potential missing a ship is in danger, I just can't make that risk. But I understand if you can.

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Oh, I hear ya. If it had been me, I'd have just chosen a different cruise or gone somewhere else. I just don't handle stress too well. Over the last 18 years we have flown to two different family events day of and once lost an engine and had to make an emergency landing, over night stay and got in the next day (of course, missing our family events of that day) and once got to the airport on time only to have them give us excuse after excuse as to why we weren't leaving on time. Six hours later, we finally took off. Of course as a result, we got to our family event at the end of it instead of the beginning. When a potential missing a ship is in danger, I just can't make that risk. But I understand if you can.

 

That should say 18 months, not years. I think I might've been ok if it was twice in 18 years, lol!

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Apparently the lady who missed the ship because she got in at 6 had booked her air through Carnival, had delays, and connection, I hope at least Carnival will get people to the next port since it was not their fault they missed the ship.

 

That is ONLY if those pax have a passport:eek: No passport no fly to Barbados NOW that would S U C K!!! :(

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That is ONLY if those pax have a passport:eek: No passport no fly to Barbados NOW that would S U C K!!! :(

 

Oh my Heavens, I didn't even think about that. Yet another reason to go ahead and suck it up and get the Passport! It may be expensive up front, but when you consider it breaks down to about $10 a year, that is less than an Applebees meal for two, lol! Way worth it, IMHO.

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Hurricane irene discussion number 7

nws national hurricane center miami fl al092011

500 am ast mon aug 22 2011

 

irene has become much better organized during the past 6 hours

despite its interaction with the mountainous terrain of puerto

rico...and a ragged eye has become apparent in imagery from the faa

terminal doppler weather radar. Also...large patches of doppler

velocity values as high as 75-82 kt at 1000-1500 ft and 85-91 kt

at 2000-3000 ft have been indicated northwest and northeast of the

center over water for the past 2 hours...which equates to at least

65-kt surface winds. Some doppler velocities as high as 72 kt have

also been detected at 500-600 ft over water. As a result of these

data...irene has been upgraded to the first hurricane of the 2011

atlantic hurricane season.

 

Trending through all of the wobbles in the track over the past 6

hours yields an average motion of about 290/10 kt. Upper-air data

at 00z indicate 500 mb heights have not changed at bermuda in the

past 24 hours...which suggests that the subtropical ridge to the

north of irene remains quite strong. The ridge is expected to

change little for the next 48 hours or so...which would act to keep

irene moving in a general west-northwestward direction off the

north coast of puerto rico this morning and just skirting the

northern coast of hispaniola later today and on tuesday. After

that...the global models diverge on the specifics of how large a

break or weakness in the subtropical ridge develops over florida

and the southeastern u.s. At 72 hour and beyond...which will allow

irene to move northwestward. The ecmwf...nogaps...and gfdn models

are the rightmost of the nhc model guidance suite and keep irene

well east of florida...whereas the ukmet and the gfdl models are

the leftmost of the models and take irene near the west coast of

florida. The gfs and the rest of the nhc model guidance is tightly

packed between these two extremes and take irene through the

bahamas and just off the florida east coast. What is noteworthy is

that all of the global and regional models agree that the outflow

of irene will converge with westerly to northwesterly upper-level

mid-latitude flow over the mid-atlantic states by 96 hours and

beyond. This upper-level mass confluence could maintain the mid- to

low-level ridge a little bit stronger and longer than what nogaps

and the ecmwf are forecasting...which would in turn keep irene a

little closer to the florida east coast. As a result...the official

forecast track was only shifted slightly to the east of the

previous track and is near the consensus models tvcn and tvca.

 

It now appears that irene will not interact with hispaniola as much

or as long as previously expected. This will also result in more

strengthening than previously expected. Irene is forecast by all of

the models to have a very impressive outflow pattern throughout the

forecast period...including a large upper-level trough/low about

1200 nmi east of the cyclone acting as a mass sink. With irene also

expected to be over ssts near 30c after 48 hours...significant

strengthening could occur. However...the official intensity will

remain on the conservative side due to the uncertainty in how much

irene will interact with the mountainous terrain of hispaniola for

the next 24-36 hours. The official intensity forecast is a blend of

the ships/lgem models and the hwrf/gfdl models. However...given the

impressive upper-level flow pattern expected across irene...it

would not surprise me if this cyclone became a major hurricane at

some time during its lifetime like the gfdl and hwrf models are

forecasting.

 

It is important not to focus on the exact forecast track...

Especially at days 4 to 5...since the most recent 5-year average

errors at those forecast times are 200 and 250 miles...

Respectively.

 

Forecast positions and max winds

 

init 22/0900z 18.4n 66.4w 65 kt 75 mph

12h 22/1800z 18.9n 68.2w 70 kt 80 mph

24h 23/0600z 19.7n 70.5w 70 kt 80 mph...inland

36h 23/1800z 20.4n 72.4w 70 kt 80 mph...over water

48h 24/0600z 21.3n 74.1w 75 kt 85 mph

72h 25/0600z 24.0n 77.1w 80 kt 90 mph

96h 26/0600z 27.0n 79.5w 85 kt 100 mph

120h 27/0600z 30.9n 81.5w 95 kt 110 mph

 

$$

forecaster stewart

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New track shift, looks like if the trough holds will move it more to the right of Fl coastline. Fingers crossed!

 

But some models have it slowing and reaching cat2 strength, not getting around JAX until Saturday. Everything depends on how quickly the ridge of high pressure over the Atlantic/Northeast moves off shore. Might be late Tuesday or Wednesday before that is known.

 

Gonna be a wet and wild week for all cruisers on the seas now or leaving this week. If you're leaving over the weekend 27th/28th from Port Canveral/and south, you should be okay. JAX and Charleston up in th eair and Baltimore/ New York before Sunday might still be good. Gulf is fine (sorry, Texas, no TS rain for you yet again:()

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The GFS is one computer model set, and I believe that abundane of "off shore" GFS runs are not the best guidance, at this time, for the future path of Irene. That said, I am keeping my eye on her. [bTW, the image in the original message may change as it is updated by the web site.]

 

I sail from Boston Friday and get to Bermuda Sunday, and I am reasonably sure I'll be clear of the storm. There may be a swell to sail through, but I'll have to check on that. I am sure that the swimming at the open ocean beaches in Bermuda will be affected.

 

My son, and grand kids, are staying on the outer banks of NC. 24 hours ago I was reasonably sure he was secure there. Too many of the models now brings Irene this far north. He may need to be on the ready. They also suggest that as I head south, she may visit the Nor'east.

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But some models have it slowing and reaching cat2 strength, not getting around JAX until Saturday. Everything depends on how quickly the ridge of high pressure over the Atlantic/Northeast moves off shore. Might be late Tuesday or Wednesday before that is known.

 

Gonna be a wet and wild week for all cruisers on the seas now or leaving this week. If you're leaving over the weekend 27th/28th from Port Canveral/and south, you should be okay. JAX and Charleston up in th eair and Baltimore/ New York before Sunday might still be good. Gulf is fine (sorry, Texas, no TS rain for you yet again:()

 

Fingers crossed we leave from Miami on Saturday.

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Florida residents or experienced cruisers, Anyone know what the cut off point is for planes landing during weather like this. Our flight from Detroit is scheduled to take of at 11:30 am/ arrive in Orlando around 2:00pm on Friday, one day prior to our cruise. Looking at the projected models I am concerned that Oralndo (MCO) will be closed. Any info or where to find it? Our two other options are to move the flight one day up (Thursday flight, same flight times just 24 hrs earlier) or pack up the car and drive 20 hrs. What would you do?

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Watching very closely here.

 

We fly out of Miami Friday (8/26) afternoon. Thank goodness we are not trying to catch a cruise. But still.

 

Let's hope Irene is kind to us all! :p

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Yikes! Thank God I don't leave this weekend. We leave September 3rd and I pray there's no hurricane in site then. It's happened to us before where our entire itinerary was changed.:eek:

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we leave on the 4th. if we re route i dont care. i just want to cruise.

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As long as we visit all our scheduled ports I don't care what order...We sale the end of October on the Dream (Western Car.) We are going to have a private excursion booked and I am going to ask them how that would work since it's a tender port anyway if we miss the port. Thats our only excursion of the cruise..

 

Good luck to everyone sailing this weekend!!

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