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Looks like Hurricane Season is arriving early.


Guest OBAYbee

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WTNT01 KNGU 021500

SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

EXERCISE EXERCISE EXERCISE

1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANT_ONE (81L) WARNING NR 002

01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ATLANTIC

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

---

WARNING POSITION:

021200Z5 --- NEAR 13.7N1 52.3W0

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 12 KTS

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM

POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

REPEAT POSIT: 13.7N1 52.3W0

---

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

030000Z3 --- 14.6N1 54.4W3

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM ALL QUADRANTS

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS

---

24 HRS, VALID AT:

031200Z6 --- 15.6N2 56.9W0

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM ALL QUADRANTS

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS

---

36 HRS, VALID AT:

040000Z4 --- 16.4N1 59.3W7

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM ALL QUADRANTS

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM ALL QUADRANTS

VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS

---

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

48 HRS, VALID AT:

041200Z7 --- 17.1N9 61.5W2

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM ALL QUADRANTS

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM ALL QUADRANTS

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM ALL QUADRANTS

VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS

---

72 HRS, VALID AT:

051200Z8 --- 18.1N0 67.3W6

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM ALL QUADRANTS

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM ALL QUADRANTS

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS

---

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY

NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.

---

96 HRS, VALID AT:

061200Z9 --- 19.3N3 73.4W4

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 120 KT

VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 14 KTS

---

120 HRS, VALID AT:

071200Z0 --- 22.7N1 77.9W3

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 145 KT

---

REMARKS:

021500Z8 POSITION NEAR 13.9N3 52.8W5 OR APPROX 1474NM

EAST OF GUANTANAMO BAY, CU. 12 FT SEAS: 200 NM NE,

100 NM SE, 100 NM SW, 200 NM NW. NEXT WARNINGS AT

022100Z5, 030300Z6, 030900Z2 AND 031500Z9.//

BT

#0001

NNNN

 

 

.....Statement is proceeded with "EXERCISE EXERCISE EXERCISE". In other words, this is just a "test"............

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Waters have to warm up to create hurricanes. No way is there going to be one in early May. June hurricanes exist if the spring time temperatores raise the water temperature. I don't think the ocean area has had a warm spring. But I could be wrong.

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Hurricanes in the early months of hurricane season usually form in the Gulf of Mexico and Yucatan where it warms up faster. The months of September and October are more active as the Atlantic heats up and the systems roll off of the African coast. I guess I have been lucky. I lived in Florida for forty years and have only had to deal with one hurricane and a couple of Tropical Storms. I just hope that this year is easier on the US than last.

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https://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/home1.html

 

It's an exercise.....click on Caribbean on the left....

 

Or, go here and look at the ocean. If there were a tropical depression, or a hurricane, the waters would be disturbed, which they are not. Click on global on the left;

 

http://www.oceanweather.com/data/index.html

 

 

Thanks, that's a cool web site.

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Guest OBAYbee

OH my... that was too funny. I am sorry if I startled anyone. It sure did look real to me though. I didn't see exercise either!

Now we can say we've had a hurricane drill here LOL

I'm with the others that are in Florida! I survived Hurricane Ivan, barely. My condo is still being rebuilt in Destin Florida.

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