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Invest 94L (Isaac if named) - Could be Trouble

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The models have this storm coming strait though the middle of everything right now.

 

two_atl.gif

 

 

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

800 AM EDT SUN AUG 19 2012

 

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

 

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE

GORDON...LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 340

MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAO MIGUEL ISLAND IN THE AZORES.

 

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED

ABOUT 800 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE

IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS

APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT

DAY OR TWO...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF

BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES

WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.

 

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

 

$$

FORECASTER BRENNAN

NNNN

 

 

 

at201294_model.gif

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I'm watching THIS one! I got all confused between this and Gordon, when Gordon is nowhere near where I am going next week. But I will be anxious to see if the maybe-Isaac impacts my August 25 - 30 sail to the Caribbean.

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Hopefully it takes the white path up and away. But looks like all other indicators have it going through the carribean. :(

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If I'm reading the map correctly, this should not impact Galveston to Yucatan routes from 8/27-9/1. Can someone confirm?

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From what I gather it's too early to tell. Noaa will have much more info by wednesday. Right now it's all guessing.

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That path line is for the center of the eye. The outer bands can still cause rain and rough seas a long way out from there.

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It is now Tropical Depression 9. Showing hurricane force winds expexted in about 2 days

 

 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012

500 AM AST TUE AUG 21 2012

 

THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL

TROPICAL ATLANTIC FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH

ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A

TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON A

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0/30 KT FROM TAFB AND T1.5/25 KT

FROM SAB. SINCE THE 0600 UTC SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS...

CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE WITH SOME CLOUD TOP

TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN -80C NOTED JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL

CENTER.

 

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/17 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED

SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN

INTACT FOR THE NEXT FOUR DAYS...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE

MOVING IN A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION THROUGH 96

HOURS. BY DAY 5...HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING A

SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DIG SOUTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND

THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE ACROSS

FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO TURN

NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS

TVCA...WHICH IS A COMPROMISE OF THE FASTER GFS MODEL AND SLOWER

ECMWF MODEL.

 

OTHER THAN SOME MODEST NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOR THE

NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE

QUITE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR. DURING DAYS 2-3...THE

VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE THE WEAKEST AND WATER TEMPERATURES

THE WARMEST...AND THAT IS WHEN THE MOST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING

SHOULD OCCUR. AT DAYS 4 AND 5...POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH LAND

MASSES OF HAITI AND CUBA...RESPECTIVELY...IS THE PRIMARY REASON

FOR THE LEVELING OFF IN THE INTENSITY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY

FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE TREND OF...BUT IS LOWER THAN...THE

SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 3 AND 4.

 

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE

CYCLONE THIS AFTERNOON.

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT 21/0900Z 15.2N 51.2W 30 KT 35 MPH

12H 21/1800Z 15.3N 53.8W 35 KT 40 MPH

24H 22/0600Z 15.7N 57.2W 40 KT 45 MPH

36H 22/1800Z 16.0N 60.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

48H 23/0600Z 16.3N 63.6W 65 KT 75 MPH

72H 24/0600Z 16.9N 69.3W 80 KT 90 MPH

96H 25/0600Z 18.0N 74.0W 95 KT 110 MPH

120H 26/0600Z 20.0N 77.3W 95 KT 110 MPH

 

$$

FORECASTER STEWART

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looks like isaac is running right over our trip! we are leaving miami on the Valor,the 26th of august , supposed to go to key west, caymans and jamaica. Anyone else out there going on this trip? This is our second cruise, first one was on a norwegian in december and had terrible weather. This might be an omen for us to never book a cruise again. :(

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looks like isaac is running right over our trip! we are leaving miami on the Valor,the 26th of august , supposed to go to key west, caymans and jamaica. Anyone else out there going on this trip? This is our second cruise, first one was on a norwegian in december and had terrible weather. This might be an omen for us to never book a cruise again. :(

 

You may want to try another cruise and opt for one not during hurricane season. Perhaps you would have a greater chance of a successful cruise. We had great weather for our first cruise. This will be our second and it is not looking too good for us either. But I guess it's the chance you take when booking during this season.

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Thought we'd take a chance, unfortunately we couldn't change the week, wanted our son to experience the Caribbean for the 1st time and couldn't afford the flights or hotels at an all-inclusive. Lesson learned, hoping for the best.

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Codejack we are on the same sailing. It's what we get when traveling during this season unfortunately. For work and school reasons this is the time of year we can have our annual family vacation. So we get travel insurance and hope for the best. As long as we can get on the ship we will be happy even if the plans change. Being from Puerto Rico we are used to the hurricane season and wish the best to residents of affected locations.

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Probably some definite itinerary changes coming...just saw RCL changed Allure of the Seas from eastern to western and the next sytem behind Isaac doesn't look good either.

Jax news is saying if Isaac stays on predicted course its really going to cause alot of Floridians problems.

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I am leaving on Oasis on Saturday (25th), but correct me if I am reading the maps wrong, but wont this storm/hurricane be affecting the Caribbean THIS week?

It looks to me like Florida will be in sunshine on Saturday and Sunday for cruise departures, and then as long as the ships get around the storm, it will be well clear of the Caribbean by Monday (27th). Am I reading this wrong or being overly optimistic?

BTW, where did you read about Allure itinerary change, I can't find anything on RCCL website.

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I am leaving on Oasis on Saturday (25th), but correct me if I am reading the maps wrong, but wont this storm/hurricane be affecting the Caribbean THIS week?

It looks to me like Florida will be in sunshine on Saturday and Sunday for cruise departures, and then as long as the ships get around the storm, it will be well clear of the Caribbean by Monday (27th). Am I reading this wrong or being overly optimistic?

BTW, where did you read about Allure itinerary change, I can't find anything on RCCL website.

 

Depends on where it is heading at the time whether or not hey can get around it. They might swing out beyond the Bahamas and then come back it. Too early to tell.

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I am leaving on Oasis on Saturday (25th), but correct me if I am reading the maps wrong, but wont this storm/hurricane be affecting the Caribbean THIS week?

It looks to me like Florida will be in sunshine on Saturday and Sunday for cruise departures, and then as long as the ships get around the storm, it will be well clear of the Caribbean by Monday (27th). Am I reading this wrong or being overly optimistic?

BTW, where did you read about Allure itinerary change, I can't find anything on RCCL website.

 

The Allure itinerary change to Western was announced on the Weather Channel.

I believe it is for this weeks' sailing which was Eastern. Doesnt look

like they could make St. Thomas or St Maarten given the storm track.

 

Iam reading the maps same as you. It looks to be ok to sail on Oasis

on the 25th although I dont expect a smooth ride. See you on the ship.

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I'm on Allure this coming Sunday, the 26th, scheduled for a Western itinerary. Our first port is Labadee on Tuesday. My totally untrained eyes tell me Isaac should blow past there before I'll be there ... I just hope everyone who lives there is all right.

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Leaving for West Carib. on the Carnival Magic out of Galveston on Sunday the 26th. Our first port of call is Jamaica on (if I'm not mistaken) Wednesday. Hope Issac won't linger, nor the other tropical storm close behind, but best of luck to the Florida cruisers and the citizens of Florida in general.

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Everything still shows Isaac turning North

 

Turning north will be a problem for those of us heading to the Bahamas this weekend. Personally I'm hoping it stays on the westward track at least until Monday. In fact, since I live in Florida, I hope it doesn't turn north at all.

 

I've been on cruises before where we cruised through the outer bands of hurricanes. Lots of high winds and rain, but surprisingly the waves were not as rough as I expected. Hopefully that holds true for anyone whose cruise is affected by this storm.

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I'm really starting to rethink this cruise. We are leaving the 24th from Port Canaveral and will be in Nassau the 25th and Coco Cay the 26th. It looks like Isaac will be dead over us. With RCCL's Monarch being a small ship I'm concerned at how rough it will be. Also wondering if there might be a change in itinerary and if so, to what? Any thoughts are very much appreciated. Thanks

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