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TS Karen


crewsweeper

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Going to be a rough ride home for Western Caribbean cruisers currently on a cruise, especially for Galveston, NOLA and Tampa ports. But should be over land by Saturday and not affect Sunday departures.

 

AT 800 AM CDT...1300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS

LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR

LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.6 WEST. KAREN IS MOVING TOWARD

THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD

THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND

KAREN IS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH ON FRIDAY.

 

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM

FROM THE CENTER.

 

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM THE AIR

FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

 

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE

HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH TROPICAL STORM

CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY LATE FRIDAY.

 

RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER

PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA

DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

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Going to be a rough ride home for Western Caribbean cruisers currently on a cruise, especially for Galveston, NOLA and Tampa ports. But should be over land by Saturday and not affect Sunday departures.

 

Yes, except that the Carnival Elation is scheduled to go out into and out of NOLA on Saturday and that certainly could be impacted as they will basically be following the storm right up through the Gulf of Mexico from Cozumel. If the forecast holds I could certainly see a late arrival and departure for the Elation on Saturday.

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Latest Update:

 

Karen is showing the affects of 20-25 kt of westerly vertical wind

shear. The main convective area is now located about 100 N mi east

of the center...with only occasional showers and thunderstorm

activity near the center. Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA

hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that the central pressure has

risen to 1002 mb...and that both the flight-level and SFMR winds

have decreased. Based on the aircraft data...the initial intensity

is reduced to a possibly generous 50 kt.

 

 

The initial motion is 325/9. Karen is currently being steered by alow/mid-level ridge over the southeastern United States. Thisridge is forecast to weaken as a large deep-layer trough moveseastward into the central United States. This evolution shouldcause Karen to turn northward and eventually northeastward...withthe big question being the timing of the northeastward turn. TheUKMET...navgem...and Canadian models delay the turn until afterKaren makes landfall in southern Louisiana. The GFS shows thesharpest turn...and it calls for the center to make landfall on thenorthwestern Florida Peninsula. The GFDL...HWRF...and ECMWF arebetween these extremes with landfall forecasts from the mouth ofthe Mississippi River to the western Florida Panhandle. Overall...the guidance is slower than it was 6 hours ago...and the guidanceenvelope has shifted a little to the west during the first 48hours. The new forecast track reflects these trends with a slightwestward shift and a slower forward speed. Given the spread ofthe guidance...the forecast of the landfall position is lowconfidence.

The intensity forecast is rather problematic. First...Karen islikely to interact with a small upper-level trough during the next24 hours...which might provide some support for renewed convection.Second...the shear may diminish in the wake of the trough...whichcould allow for intensification...especially if Karen turnsnortheastward while still over water. The ECMWF shows about 10 mbof deepening after recurvature...and the GFS...HWRF...and GFDLmodels show more. Based on these models and current trends...theintensity forecast is modified to show little change in strengththrough 24 hours...followed by intensification to near hurricanestrength by 48 hours. After landfall...Karen should weaken andeventually become extratropical as it merges with the deep-layertrough.

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Well, that one petered out too!:eek: Hope the cruisers in and out of NOLA made it without too bad of delays. And certainly a soggy return for some Western C cruises last week. But still bee a relatively quiet season, albeit the forecasters will spin this into an above average one based on # storm names and blame the lack of intensity on too many people breathing.:rolleyes:

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