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Update to Hurricane forecast


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This is not particularly good news....

 

Theron

 

http://wireservice.wired.com/wired/story.asp?section=Breaking&storyId=1070502&tw=wn_wire_story

 

Weather Service Boosts Hurricane Forecast

 

Tuesday, August 02, 2005 11:10 a.m. ET

 

By RANDOLPH E. SCHMID AP Science Writer

 

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The government on Tuesday sharply boosted its forecast for hurricanes this season, predicting 18 to 21 tropical storms by the end of November.

 

That's up from a forecast in May of 12 to 15 tropical storms, seven to nine of them becoming hurricanes.

 

There have already been seven named storms this year, two of them hurricanes. That means the remainder of the year could see 11 to 14 more storms, including seven to nine more hurricanes, Weather Service Director David L. Johnson said at a briefing.

 

Hurricane forecaster Gerry Bell the combination of warmer waters, low wind shear and low pressure, as well as the jet stream, favor storm formation.

 

Hurricanes derive their energy from warm water. The sea surface is two to three degrees warmer than normal for this time of year, Bell noted.

 

Wind shear, a change in wind direction with altitude, can suppress these storms and lack of shear allows them to form. The jet stream is in place to guide disturbances moving off the coast of Africa, he added.

 

Weather Service officials urged preparedness on the part of people living in hurricane-prone areas.

 

Bell said hurricanes have increased since 1995. He said there is a cycle between more and less active hurricane seasons which lasts for decades. The nation's coastlines had major population increases during the decades with low storm activity before 1995, he noted.

 

A new analysis by Kerry Emmanuel at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology suggests global warming is making tropical storms stronger.

 

However, that report did not suggest it is generating more storms and Bell said it isn't possible to determine such an effect because the cycles of more and fewer storms are so strong.

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MACOP, you spoke 3 and a half hours too soon! ;)

 

Theron

 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 1

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

5 PM AST TUE AUG 02 2005

 

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS...WARNING ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...

 

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS

THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA

WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

 

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

 

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 68.7 WEST OR ABOUT

350 MILES... 565 KM... SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

 

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 13 MPH

...20 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 24 HOURS.

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM

TONIGHT.

 

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

 

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA IN

ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION.

 

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...28.5 N... 68.7 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

 

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL

HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT

COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM AST.

 

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

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Someone please remind me why I live in Florida????

 

I did hear that some are predicting them to be more eastern than western storms the rest of the season. I have family in the Carolinas and the are predicting some bad ones up there! Too bad they don't all go out to sea.

 

Dolphincruiser.......I'm starting to wonder that myself......I can't take another season of hits like last year......3 was WAY too many! I do believe that when my husband and I are visiting relatives at Chrismas in CT I'll remember why I live down here!

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I can just see it.............it's Sunday, August 14...........we are boarding the Enchantment in Philadelphia.............someone with an RCI nametag is standing at the gangplank handing out flyers, looking grimfaced. My children and I are panting at the end of this long gangplank, because our carry-ons are so heavy with the smuggled booze because RC has announced no more buying from onboard shop and taking back to cabin for $9.50 consumption fee............we stop on the ramp to read the flyer................it says:

 

ATTENTION ENCHANTMENT PASSENGERS! FOR YOUR SAFETY, AND IN ORDER TO AVOID THE NORTHEASTERLY TRACK OF HURRICANE ISHKABBIBLE, WE WILL BE SAILING TO BERMUDA. NO REFUNDS WILL BE GIVEN; CRUISE OR LOSE.

:D :D :D

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Ohhhhhhhh! TPKeller,

please make them stop!! :(

 

We're headed to BermuCanada in only 5 days! ! ! :eek:

BermuCanada.. that's funny!

 

I think you will be fine. The current forecasts have it blown through in just a couple days.

 

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200508_5day.html

 

Theron

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I can just see it.............it's Sunday, August 14...........we are boarding the Enchantment in Philadelphia.............someone with an RCI nametag is standing at the gangplank handing out flyers, looking grimfaced. My children and I are panting at the end of this long gangplank, because our carry-ons are so heavy with the smuggled booze because RC has announced no more buying from onboard shop and taking back to cabin for $9.50 consumption fee............we stop on the ramp to read the flyer................it says:

 

ATTENTION ENCHANTMENT PASSENGERS! FOR YOUR SAFETY, AND IN ORDER TO AVOID THE NORTHEASTERLY TRACK OF HURRICANE ISHKABBIBLE, WE WILL BE SAILING TO BERMUDA. NO REFUNDS WILL BE GIVEN; CRUISE OR LOSE.

:D :D :D

 

It was hot and sunny, and you were stuck wearing your parka and thermals b/c you had packed for Canada? The casinos were closed due to port calls and you weren't able to gamble? Okay, maybe I AM just tender-hearted on this issue, but sounds like a good reason for a free drink to me....;)

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It was hot and sunny, and you were stuck wearing your parka and thermals b/c you had packed for Canada? The casinos were closed due to port calls and you weren't able to gamble? Okay, maybe I AM just tender-hearted on this issue, but sounds like a good reason for a free drink to me....;)

but, the cruise to Bermuda is more than the cruise to Canada so, you have to pay the difference! (doesn't it work that way too?) ;)

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It was hot and sunny, and you were stuck wearing your parka and thermals b/c you had packed for Canada? The casinos were closed due to port calls and you weren't able to gamble? Okay, maybe I AM just tender-hearted on this issue, but sounds like a good reason for a free drink to me....;)

...and my damned mukluks kept getting stuck in the pink sand! Waiter, oh, Waiter! One virgin daquiri! (yeah, RIGHT)

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It was hot and sunny, and you were stuck wearing your parka and thermals b/c you had packed for Canada? The casinos were closed due to port calls and you weren't able to gamble? Okay, maybe I AM just tender-hearted on this issue, but sounds like a good reason for a free drink to me....;)

 

Your not far off.

I just read in and official RCL press release that as of 2006, ALL cruises regardless of destination will include Bermuda AND Halifax in their itinery's. This way no one can complain when a port is +/- for ANY reason.

Not only that, but upon boarding, one complimentary watered down (faux) rum swizzle will be offered (per stateroom). This covers any changes that might be necessary.

... (but pullllllllllleeeeeeeeeease, don't rain on OUR parade next week) ;)

:D

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Well, I'm cruising November 20th, and they're calling for storms into late November.

 

So from the way this looks, I'll be dodging hurricane Zeke. Maybe my at sea, Labadee, Jamaica, Grand Cayman, Cozumel, at sea will turn into... well... hmm...

 

at sea, NJ, Maine, Canada(x2), at sea?

At sea, Bermuda(x4), at sea?

At sea, At sea, At sea, At sea, At sea, At sea,

Hm... can I write to RCCL and create my own itin?

At sea, Key West(x5), at sea? No, the JONES Act would get me there...

 

Or MAYBE, I'll take what comes, have a great story to tell, and have a great excuse to book another cruise on board the ship. (I'll consider the credit I get from booking while on board my compensation...)

:D

Someone remind me of this post and what I just said when I'M the one complaining that I was re-routed. Although I'm pretty easy going. Anywhere is better than Ohio and the 73 relatives and in-laws I USUALLY have over at my house on Thanksgiving. Gobble Gobble.

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...and my damned mukluks kept getting stuck in the pink sand! Waiter, oh, Waiter! One virgin daquiri! (yeah, RIGHT)

 

AND

 

Your not far off.

I just read in and official RCL press release that as of 2006, ALL cruises regardless of destination will include Bermuda AND Halifax in their itinery's. This way no one can complain when a port is +/- for ANY reason.

Not only that, but upon boarding, one complimentary watered down (faux) rum swizzle will be offered (per stateroom). This covers any changes that might be necessary.

... (but pullllllllllleeeeeeeeeease, don't rain on OUR parade next week) ;)

:D

 

:D :D Wishing you blue skies and calm seas--no sandy mukluks. Wish I were boarding to go anywhere anytime soon, but alas: HIHO, HIHO, is instead off to work I go.... Hope you both have a wonderful time!:)

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I agree AmesFL....however I learned not to leave Tampa to go to Orlando! After almost being killed in a hotel bathroom with my mom and two cats while my boyfriend sat and enjoyed the sunny weather in his office in Tampa. That would have been for Charley! I learned my lesson real quick. First hurricane I EVER experienced, and I didn't think I would live to see the end of it. Just kept telling my mom how glad I was that we had taken that recent cruise!

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gave me a good look at Bermuda's curse coming Thursday at 2AM, but still a TD not a hurricane. And I told folks to check NHC.com for updates before their cruise.

 

Weather can change very 5 minutes!!!!

 

MACOP, you spoke 3 and a half hours too soon! ;)

 

Theron

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I have to eat my words about a slow hurricane season for early this year. The weather all year was fairly cold for the Atlantic and Carribean so the water temperature should have been down. Unfortunately I did not take into account the warming effect in the Atlantic from all the underwater valcanos that have erupted during the same period of time. Warmer water, more potential for hurricanes.

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I have to eat my words about a slow hurricane season for early this year. The weather all year was fairly cold for the Atlantic and Carribean so the water temperature should have been down. Unfortunately I did not take into account the warming effect in the Atlantic from all the underwater valcanos that have erupted during the same period of time. Warmer water, more potential for hurricanes.

Underwater volcanos? This is the first I've heard of that! I'm really curious about this, do you have any references to this? Most of the the P.C. mainstream media is trying to pin this on "global warming".....

 

Theron

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