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Strong Storm Forming! Looks to Hit Southern Caribbean!


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Its Hugh, It has dipped farther south then it was when it first exited Africa, At the moment its even with the Southen American Coasts and Aruba and Trindad, And then make its way to Costa Rica or Panama, By the current track and its continuing south ward track, Such ports as The Bahamas, Florida, Mexico, and Puerto Rico and the Cayman islands should be ok.

 

weather.com - Map Navigator - Atlantic Ocean Satellite

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I'd check http://www.stormcarib.com for some of the best and most comprehensively-written updates on storm activity that affect the Caribbean. For this storm, they say the following:

 

"A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE...ACOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS

AND THUNDERSTORMS...HAS MOVED OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA EARLIER

TODAY AND IS ABOUT TO PASS NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT

DAY OR TWO...AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC."

 

These storms can have some pretty wide variances in terms of how they develop...it could swing south and then north, away from the coast, could dissapate depending on shear winds, or could turn into a storm that may or may not have sufficient organization to become a hurricane. It just bears watching...and I hope for the sake of all cruisers and residents of the islands that this is nothing.

 

Also, the H storm in 2005 is Harvey, not Hugh (unless you meant "huge", in that case my bad). Regardless, as we are up to Tropical Depression Ten, if it is labelled it would (I think) be named Jose unless an earlier storm brews up (please correct me if I'm wrong).

 

I obsessed over storms last year, watching clouds pass over Africa and trying to predict what would turn into a hurricane and what would not in advance of my 9/24 cruise. At the end of the day, Mother Nature does whatever the heck she wants and until the storms get sufficient organization to exhibit typical hurricane behavior, the best we can do is keep our fingers crossed. Turns out that I cruise right after Ivan and during Jeanne, and our ship skirted around the latter storm and had its itinerary changed because of the destruction of the former. The thing is, you can't control it, the only thing you can do is keep your chin up and make the best of what fate happens to hand you.

 

Cheers,

Esther

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Need help?flag-and-storm7.jpgHow to read the

Public AdvisoryPage last updated

Sun, 21 Aug 2005 10:01:01 UTCHow to read the

Forecast/Advisory

Atlantic - Carib - Gulf of MexicoTropical Weather Outlook (en Español*)

Tropical Weather Discussion

TAFB Atlantic Forecasts and AnalysesThere are no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic at this time. Eastern Pacific (out to 140°W)Tropical Weather Outlook

Tropical Weather Discussion

TAFB East Pacific Forecasts and AnalysesHurricane HILARY xml.gifPublic Advisory

not issued unless land is threatenedForecast/

Advisory

#8

0900Z

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"Its too early to tell. Hurricaines are notoriously hard to predict. Saying this will hit the southern carribe now is just chicken little IMO...it may hit but you will have a better idea in 3-5 days.

 

http://152.80.49.216/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

 

look here it shows it out in the Atlantic...between florida and Bermuda..."

 

the link and predictions you give were for Tropical Depression 10 which fizzled out days ago. Look at the dates Aug 14th and up.

 

"Regardless, as we are up to Tropical Depression Ten, if it is labelled it would (I think) be named Jose "

 

You are right that it will be Jose but we already hadTropical Depression 10, it just barely missed being named. It was 2 miles per hour slower than needed. The next will be Tropical Depression 11.

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Depends on the storm, but from the NHC archives, generally it takes about 4-5 days for a storm that originates in the Eastern Atlantic tropics to hit the Eastern Caribbean. From there, another few days to cross through the Caribbean depending on track and power, winds, etc. However, there are so many factors that it's impossible to predict the time it'll take. Or the track.

 

I'd just go and enjoy your vacation...no matter what you'll have a great time!

 

Cheers,

Esther

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Whatever is there NOW or forming will be LONG gone in two weeks. :)

 

I'm leaving on Sunday's Mariner and I'm not worried about this one at all. As long as I can get to the ship, I'm good to go, wherever we end up. :D

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Whatever is there NOW or forming will be LONG gone in two weeks. :)

 

I'm leaving on Sunday's Mariner and I'm not worried about this one at all. As long as I can get to the ship, I'm good to go, wherever we end up. :D

 

Thanks! I feel better now!! I know what you mean...that is all I want...to get to the ship! We were on the enchantment last summer when Frances hit and it was an experience!!

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These storms can go from a hurricane 1 to a 4 in a day or so, they can fall apart, they can hit many miles from the original point of concern or they can hit head on. I wouldn't worry right now about any storms that are forming. I know that some people are just trying to watch out for others, but the only thing to be gained at this stage is panic. Africa is a long way from the Caribbean!!! NMNIta

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Last year, because we were cruising right in the middle of hurricane season, I became a hurricane geek :) I pored over StormCarib, the National Hurricane Center, Weather Channel, and watched clouds from the time they formed over Africa until they did whatever they were going to do here. I fretted, I worried, I stressed. Ivan did major damage to every island we were stopping at, and we were cruising right during the second assault of Hurricane Jeanne.

 

I can tell you that all of the obsession didn't make a darn bit of difference. Yes my itinerary changed (to islands I'd already been to), and yes, the ship was rockin' and rollin' the second night of the cruise (wheeee!). But we STILL had an awesome time, STILL had great weather other than the day we skirted Jeanne, and I wouldn't hesitate to book another cruise during this time of year if the price is right.

 

All I can say is don't fret too much because it's not something you will be able to control. At worst, you may have your itinerary changed or be delayed in leaving or arrival. As there's little or nothing that can be done, there's not much benefit in stressing out about clouds in the Eastern Atlantic :)

 

Cheers,

Esther

 

P.S. For all the "shiny happy people attitude", to be fair, I will add here that we were told there was a SLIM chance that due to the storm activity we might be directed NORTH, to Canada, instead of south. Thank goodness that didn't happen! We have all seen on the forum here how well that went over on a five day cruise originally going to Bermuda...I imagine that this would NOT have sat well with a ship of Voyager passengers heading to the Western Caribbean on a NINE day cruise!

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