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TD #16 (Ophelia)


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Tropical Depression Sixteen Discussion Number 1

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

11 Am Edt Tue Sep 06 2005

 

Satellite...radar And Surface Observations Indicate That The Area Of

Low Pressure Over The Northwestern Bahamas Has Developed Enough

Circulation And Thunderstorm Activity To Be Classified As A

Tropical Depression. The Center Appears To Be Located On The

Southern Edge Of The Convection Due To Some Shear. However...an

Upper-level Ridge Is Forecast To Develop Over The System...reducing

The Shear...and The Circulation Is Forecast To Remain Over Warm

Waters For 2 To 3 Days. Therefore...a Gradual Strengthening Is

Indicated And The Depression Is Forecast To Become A Tropical Storm

Later Tonight Or Wednesday. The Official Intensity Forecast Is

Close To The Ships Model Output.

 

The Depression Is In Formative Stage And The Initial Motion Is

Uncertain But...it Appears That The Main Center Of Circulation Is

Nearly Stationary. Steering Currents Are Very Weak So Little Motion

Is Anticipated But The Cyclone Should Begin To Move Slowly Toward

The North-northwest Very Close To The East Coast Of Florida.

Because The Depression Is Expected To Become A Tropical Storm And

Be Near The East Cost Of Central Florida...a Tropical Storm Warning

Has Been Issued Accordingly. The Tropical Storm Warning May Be

Extended Northward Along The East Coast Of Florida As The Cyclone

Moves North-northwestward.

 

Forecaster Avila

 

 

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

 

Initial 06/1500z 26.5n 78.6w 25 Kt

12hr Vt 07/0000z 27.0n 79.0w 35 Kt

24hr Vt 07/1200z 27.6n 79.3w 40 Kt

36hr Vt 08/0000z 28.0n 79.7w 50 Kt

48hr Vt 08/1200z 28.5n 80.0w 60 Kt

72hr Vt 09/1200z 29.0n 80.5w 60 Kt

96hr Vt 10/1200z 29.5n 81.0w 60 Kt

120hr Vt 11/1200z 30.5n 82.0w 40 Kt...inland

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Thanks Grumpy,

 

 

We will hope so. Last year was the worst year I have lived in Florida (since '83) and the worst we had was about 45 MPH winds. As with a lot of Florida though there are still some weakened trees and homes that have not been reroofed.

 

We also know how fickle these storms can be, so it will be a good idea for everyone up the Atlantic coast to keep an eye out.

 

Thanks for the best wishes. :)

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Thanks Grumpy,

 

 

We will hope so. Last year was the worst year I have lived in Florida (since '83) and the worst we had was about 45 MPH winds. As with a lot of Florida though there are still some weakened trees and homes that have not been reroofed.

 

We also know how fickle these storms can be, so it will be a good idea for everyone up the Atlantic coast to keep an eye out.

 

Thanks for the best wishes. :)

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Tropical Depression Sixteen Discussion Number 2nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl5 Pm Edt Tue Sep 06 2005 There Has Been Little Change In Organization During The Past Fewhours As Indicated By T-numbers From Tafb And Sab Which Haveremained At 2.0 On The Dvorak Scale. Data From A Noaareconnaissance Plane Show That Pressure Is About 1008 Mb And Thereis A Well-defined But Broad Low-level Circulation. Most Of Theweather Associated With The Depression Is North Of The Center Dueto A Little Bit Of Southerly Wind Shear. However...most Of Theglobal Models Suggest The Development Of An Upper-level Ridge Overthe Cyclone...and Because The Ocean Is Warm Along The Forecast Patha Gradual Strengthening Is Indicated. The Depression Is Forecast Tobecome A Tropical Storm Later Tonight Or Wednesday And The Officialintensity Forecast Is Close To The Ships Model Output. I Am Alittle Bit Uncomfortable Bringing The Intensity Up Farther When Thegfdl Does Not Strengthen The Cyclone. The Depression Has Been Meandering For The Past Few Hours. Steeringcurrents Are Very Weak And Only A Small Northwestward Drift Isanticipated In The Next Two To Three Days As Suggested By Most Ofthe Guidance. Beyond 3 Days...the Track Forecast Is Highlyuncertain. The Latest Gfs Model Run Indicates That A Short Wavewill Bypass To The North Of The Cyclone And Will Not Pick Itup...while The Uk Model Shows A Stronger Shortwave Taking Thecyclone More To The North-northeast. In General...some Models Showtracks Into The Gulf Of Mexico And Others Show Tracks Northeastwardover The Open Atlantic. The Official Forecast Keeps The Cyclonemoving Slowly Toward The Northwest And Over Northern Floridasimilar To The Gfs Solution. Forecaster Avila

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 3...CORRECTED

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

11 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005

 

...CORRECTED MOTION FORECAST...

 

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN SLIGHTLY STRONGER AS IT DRIFTS

NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...NEW TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED...

 

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF

FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF JUPITER NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE INCLUDING

MERRITT ISLAND...AND FOR GRAND BAHAMA...THE ABACOS AND BIMINI.

 

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

 

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ON EFFECT FOR THE

FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF TITUSVILLE TO FLAGLER BEACH.

 

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

 

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA....AND THE

SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF

THIS SYSTEM.

 

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

 

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST OR ABOUT

65 MILES... 105 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA

ISLAND AND ABOUT 145 MILES... 235 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE

CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

 

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH

... 6 KM/HR. A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 24 HOURS.

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24

HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON

WEDNESDAY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT STRONG WINDS ALONG PORTIONS OF

THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST ARE CURRENTLY DUE MORE TO

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THAN TO

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SISTEEN.

 

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

 

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER

AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF FLORIDA AND THE

NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

 

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...27.4 N... 78.5 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

 

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL

HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT

COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.

 

Also tropical storm Nate is close to hurricane strength and may threaten Bermuda so those with cruises or other interests there should pay attention to NHC reports on that storm as well.

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It was great to wake up to the news that the tropical storm warnings were lifted and the Treasure Coast is not threatened by Ophelia.

 

What a strange track though .... it really is a question mark as to where she is going! I hope she'll follow Maria out to sea.

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Tropical Storm Ophelia Discussion Number 6

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

5 Pm Edt Wed Sep 07 2005

 

There Has Been No Important Changes To Report. The Cloud Pattern Has

Not Become Any Better Organized And The Low-level Center Has Become

Partially Exposed Due To Southerly Shear. However... There Is

Plenty Of Deep Convection To The North And East Of The Center. The

Central Pressure Has Decreased To 996 Mb But Winds Remain At 45

Knots.

 

Ophelia Is Embedded Within Very Weak Steering Currents Which Are

Forecast To Prevail. In Fact...the Official Forecast Practically

Keeps The Tropical Cyclone Meandering Within An Area Of About 100

Nautical Miles For The Next Five Days. There Is Plenty Of Warm

Water In This Area...but The Shear Is Forecast To Increase Then

Decrease Over The Next Five Days. Due To This Variability...only

Gradual Strengthening Is Indicated In The Forecast...as Suggested

By The Ships Model.

 

Models Continue In Great Disagreement With Regards To The Track. The

Gfs Which Looped The Cyclone Back To The West In The Previous

Run...is Now Showing A Track To The Northeast. The Nogaps Which

Earlier Turn Ophelia To The Northeast Away From Florida Is Bringing

The Cyclone Back To The U.s. Coast. The Gfdl Stubbornly Insists On

A Track To The West-northwest Toward Florida...and The Story Goes

On And On. Since The Official Forecast Does Not Have The Luxury Of

Making Such Large Changes In Track Every Six Hour...the Best Option

For Weak Steering Current Scenarios Is To Maintain The Cyclone

Nearly Stationary. This Is Basically The Solution Of The

Consensus.

 

All Interests In North Florida And Southeastern Georgia Should

Monitor The Progress Of This Developing Cyclone.

 

Forecaster Avila

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This is the first time that I have ever seen a forecast "cone" that was a full circle around the storm. The spaghetti models really do look like a plate of spaghetti on this one. They don't have a clue where shes going or when she will get there.

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Didn't we have a storm last year that looped around? I guess she just wants to linger around that warm water and is in no hurry about deciding where to go.

 

 

Yes, it was Hurricane Jeanne, which made landfall in the Stuart area. People were cleaning up from Frances and not expecting Jeanne 2 weeks later.

The looping motion threw most of us for a loop! :p

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Thanks Oceanwench. It appears that Jeanne has a relative that wants to just sit out there, enjoy the warm water and bask in the sun. This kind of a tourist is one that we don't want.

 

Bellebaby, it is hard to tell what direction that Ophelia may go. They just don't know right now. Here is a site that may help. It is the TV station out of Orlando, www.wesh.com and is wonderful about updating the information.

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Here is the latest we have:

 

 

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

8 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2005

 

...OPHELIA BARELY MOVING...

 

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF

FLORIDA FROM COCOA BEACH NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL

STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED

WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

 

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA

COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A TROPICAL

STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE

WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

 

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND THE

SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF

THIS SYSTEM.

 

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

 

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.6 WEST OR ABOUT

70 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

 

OPHELIA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. A GENERALLY NORTHWARD DRIFT IS

EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

 

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES

...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. NOAA DOPPLER RADAR DATA INDICATE

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 25 MILES OF CAPE

CANAVERAL.

 

A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT JUST REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL

PRESSURE OF 989 MB...29.20 INCHES.

 

OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO

3 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND

SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 5

INCHES.

 

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...28.7 N... 79.6 W. MOVEMENT

...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL

PRESSURE... 989 MB.

 

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT

11 AM EDT.

 

FORECASTER PASCH

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It seems a lot of you are from north/central Florida.

 

How were you affected by last year's storms? The focus was in the areas where Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne made landfall more than the other parts of the state that felt the effects.

 

DH and I have talked about getting out of So Fla and are looking at the Ocala and Gainesville areas.

They seem less vulnerable than where we live, which is about 5 miles from the ocean.

We'd love to stay in Fla., but we're thinking a little more inland is a better choice.

 

Strange behavior from Lady Ophelia, no?

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We're between Daytona Beach and St. Augustine, beachside. East of A1A between ICW and the ocean, on a barrier island. Fortunately we had no problems last year other than a huge branch from our magnolia tree fall. I hope I'm not speaking too soon!!!! At the moment, we have some blowing but no rain yesterday or today; however, those west of the ICW had rain all day. Go figure! Last year we evacuated to Jax and had lots of rain, wind, etc., but never lost power. I understand Gainsville (and I think Ocala) lost power. Come on up!!!!

Esther

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Oceanwench,

 

 

I have lived in the north central Florida area for 22 years. Last year was by far the worst. We had winds of around 40-45 mph from the last two, Charlie actually was closer but we were on the west side of it and got practically nothing while folks 20-25 miles to the east got hammered. Go figure.

 

I lost some tree limbs and a couple shingles but fortunately that was all. Some in town had uprooted trees that fell on houses or cars. I would just say we were blessed, all in all, Ocala suffered a lot less than everyone around us. I think we are in the safest part of the state, but that really doesn't guarantee anything.

 

It is a nice area but traffic is becoming a growing problem, pun intended. Overall I love it here, but I do wish I was nearer the Ocean sometimes.

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Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number 10

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

5 Pm Edt Thu Sep 08 2005

 

...ophelia Becomes The Seventh Hurricane Of The Season...still Not

Moving...

 

At 5 Pm Edt...2100z...the Tropical Storm Warning Is Extended

Southward To Sebastian Inlet Florida.

 

A Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect For The East Coast Of

Florida From Sebastian Inlet Northward To Flagler Beach. A Tropical

Storm Warning Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are Expected

Within The Warning Area Within The Next 24 Hours.

 

A Tropical Storm Watch Is In Effect For The Northeast Florida

Coast From North Of Flagler Beach To Fernandina Beach. A Tropical

Storm Watch Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are Possible

Within The Watch Area Within The Next 36 Hours.

 

Interests Elsewhere In Northern And Central Florida...and The

Southeastern United States Coast...should Monitor The Progress Of

This System.

 

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible

Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued

By Your Local Weather Office.

 

At 5 Pm Edt...2100z...the Center Of Hurricane Ophelia Was Located

Near Latitude 28.6 North... Longitude 79.5 West Or About 70 Miles

East-northeast Of Cape Canaveral Florida.

 

Ophelia Is Stationary And A Slow Northeastward Motion May Occur Over

The Next 12 To 24 Hours.

 

National Weather Service Doppler Radar And Air Force Hurricane

Hunter Observations Indicate That The Maximum Sustained Winds Have

Increased To Near 75 Mph...with Higher Gusts. Ophelia Is A

Category One Hurricane On The Saffir-simpson Scale. Some Increase

In Strength Is Forecast During The Next 24 Hours.

 

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 15 Miles... 30 Km...

From The Center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up

To 80 Miles...130 Km.

 

The Air Force Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Reported A Minimum Central

Pressure Of 985 Mb...29.09 Inches.

 

Ophelia Is Expected To Produce Total Rainfall Accumulations Of 1 To

3 Inches Across Portions Of Central And Northern Florida.

 

Repeating The 5 Pm Edt Position...28.6 N... 79.5 W. Movement

...stationary. Maximum Sustained Winds... 75 Mph. Minimum Central

Pressure... 985 Mb.

 

An Intermediate Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane

Center At 8 Pm Edt Followed By The Next Complete Advisory At 11 Pm

Edt.

 

Forecaster Pasch

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Took a beating last year. Lost all shingles and then the ceilings got wet and fell in.

 

Moved back into house in March this year and still have boxes in the garage that have not unpacked. All toll bill was around $130,000.00

 

No one was hurt, the cats and fish are ok so all in all it was not a real tragedy.

 

Looks nasty outside tonight.....

 

Jim & Ruth

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Hurricane Ophelia Intermediate Advisory Number 10a

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

8 Pm Edt Thu Sep 08 2005

 

...ophelia Continues Meandering Off The Florida East Coast With

Little Change In Strength...

 

A Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect For The East Coast Of

Florida From Sebastian Inlet Northward To Flagler Beach. A Tropical

Storm Warning Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are Expected

Within The Warning Area Within The Next 24 Hours.

 

A Tropical Storm Watch Is In Effect For The Northeast Florida

Coast From North Of Flagler Beach To Fernandina Beach. A Tropical

Storm Watch Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are Possible

Within The Watch Area Within The Next 36 Hours.

 

Interests Elsewhere In Northern And Central Florida...and The

Southeastern United States Coast...should Monitor The Progress Of

This System.

 

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible

Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued

By Your Local Weather Office.

 

At 8 Pm Edt...0000z...the Center Of Hurricane Ophelia Was Located

Near Latitude 28.6 North... Longitude 79.4 West Or About 75 Miles

East-northeast Of Cape Canaveral Florida.

 

Ophelia Is Stationary And A Slow Northeastward Motion May Occur Over

The Next 12 To 24 Hours.

 

Reports From An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Indicate

That The Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 75 Mph...with Higher

Gusts. Ophelia Is A Category One Hurricane On The Saffir-simpson

Scale. Some Increase In Strength Is Forecast During The Next 24

Hours.

 

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 15 Miles... 30 Km...

From The Center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up

To 80 Miles...130 Km.

 

The Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Just Reported A Minimum Central

Pressure Of 990 Mb...29.23 Inches.

 

Ophelia Is Expected To Produce Total Rainfall Accumulations Of 1 To

3 Inches Across Portions Of Central And Northern Florida.

 

Repeating The 8 Pm Edt Position...28.6 N... 79.4 W. Movement

...stationary. Maximum Sustained Winds... 75 Mph. Minimum Central

Pressure... 990 Mb.

 

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National

Hurricane Center At 11 Pm Edt.

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