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Hurricane Wilma


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BULLETIN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 1

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

5 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2005

 

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

 

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH MAYBE REQUIRED FOR

FOR GRAND CAYMAN LATER TONIGHT.

 

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

 

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE POORLY CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION

TWENTY-FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.8

WEST OR ABOUT 195 MILES... 315 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND

ABOUT 85 MILES... 140 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA.

 

THE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING WESTWARD NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR...AND THIS

SLOW MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS MAINLY IN SQUALLS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE

DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY.

 

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE

WAS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

 

Forecast...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT24/refresh/AL2405W5+gif/231353W_sm.gif

Latest Satellite...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

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I can't even LOOK at a hurricane tracking map after what we went through with Katrina. Yesterday I was kicking myself for not booking the Conquest in October (after our cancelled Sensation cruise in September). However, I now remember that my reasoning for booking late November was that it's at the end of hurricane season. So I will be patient and be glad we (hopefully) don't have to worry about another cancelled cruise. This just reminds me a little too much of Rita - they said it looked like it would hit TX, but "once these things are in the gulf they can do anything." Sure enough, it came just close enough to us that 30% of my parish flooded (again) and lots of houses in my neighborhood lost their roofs. No matter WHAT the tracks say about this one, I'm going to be nervous until it makes landfall. We're still waiting on our blue roof from FEMA from Katrina...

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OH NO GO AWAY!!!:eek:

 

My husband and my mother and sister and I are set to sail Thursday. In 10 years and 14 cruises this is the first time we have had to deal with a potential hurricane. We have sailed mostly in July for week long cruises and in October(feeling safe that no storms would effect us). WE are taking my 78yr old mom with us,she went on her first cruise last year and got HOOKED we knew that when planned our short 4 day there was NO way we would get out of town with out her:) . With all the problems Katrina caused with the cruise schedule it will be very interesting to see what Carnival does in this case. Any IDEA'S..... Nassua?? or a Eastern Carribean port:confused: Then I'am not even thing about just getting to Miami on Wednesday night we are flying in from Philadelphia:( Then getting back ohhhhhhhhhhhh the thought is depressing.

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We are supposed to leave out of Galveston Saturday headed toward Cozumel. It's showing it passing by Cozumel Friday morning, headed toward the New Orleans/Mississippi area. But you know how that can change. I'm beginning to have a lot of sympathy with Cruise lines trying to figure out what to do this time of year. My original Elation cruise that was cancelled due to Katrina was going to Merida and Belize. Looks like I might still go there to avoid Wilma, if we go at all.

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We're headed straight into Wilma's path... leaving Miami on Thursday aboard the Imagination and heading for Key West and then Cozumel. I wonder where Carnival will take us instead if the storm predictions hold. Any ideas?

 

Linda

 

Hi icccbeloeil, seagirl718 and butchde. I tried drawing you all out on the roll call many time but did not get any nibbles. I sure am glad we are not going to be alone. Of course this adds another degree of difficulty with bingo. I really was hoping I did not have to share!:D

 

If this storm really gets cranked up, we probably won't be going to Cozumel or Key West. Let's just hope it goes to the gulf and stays away from Miami. I need the getaway regardless where we go!

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The tropical depression has changed little during the day. It appears it is trying to get re-organized. Conditions still appear favorable for development into a hurricane. The latest computer models have shifted to the west, now threatening the Yucatan coast of Mexico. It appears this storm might be a very slow mover in the Caribbean, like Mitch in 1998. Eventually, it will get brought into the Gulf of Mexico and might threaten the West-Coast of Florida by next weekend. Historically, the coast north and south of Tampa Bay is most likely to be hit in late October from storms developing in the Western Caribbean. The last direct hit in Tampa was in Oct. 1921. The last direct hit north of Tampa Bay was Gladys in Oct. 1967. In the 1940s, two hurricanes (one strong) hit south of Tampa Bay in the Sarasota area, both times in October.

 

The official advisory...

BULLETIN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

8 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005

 

...DEPRESSION MOVING VERY SLOWLY AND NOT YET ANY STRONGER...

 

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR

THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

 

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

 

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR

WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST OR

ABOUT 150 MILES... 245 KM... SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

 

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH...

4 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT

24 HOURS. HOWEVER... STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK AND SOME ERRATIC

MOTION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING

THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IF IT DOES SO... IT WILL TIE THE RECORD OF 21

NAMED STORMS SET IN 1933.

 

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

NOAA BUOY 42057... LOCATED ABOUT 65 MILES WEST OF THE CIRCULATION

CENTER... RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 1004 MB.

 

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO

6 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA... WITH ISOLATED

AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

 

Latest Forecast track...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT24/refresh/AL2405W5+gif/204841W_sm.gif

 

Latest Satellite Image...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/IR4/20.jpg

 

Computer Forecast...(from FSU)

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2005101618-twenty-fo24l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

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Never thought to check the roll call board.

 

You mean our cruise might actually be cancelled!! I would never have imagined cancelled... moved, yes, but cancelled, no! What's the deciding factor between moving a cruise and cancelling one?

 

Unless this thing goes up the east coast of Floriday I am sure they will not cancel the cruise. We just may end up going someplace else. I wouldn't mine St. Thomas!:D

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I have been wondering.... of all those models.

 

Which one is the most historically accurate model?

 

Each of the models is deeply flawed in some way or another, hence the need for so many of them to get some kind of consensus. The GFDL tends to be the "best", but even so leaves a lot to be desired. Basically watch the NHC's official track. They tend to be pretty good at the three day mark, within 50 miles or so. Even they admit that the 4th and 5th days are really just a guess, though.

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I just talked to the guy that hosts the webpage about the hurricane tracks ( he is doing his doctoral work on hurricane statistical modeling )

 

Here is a portion of the email he sent me...

 

*************

I have computed some of those statistics in the past as part of my MS research on ensemble track forecast. Basically, the most reliable models for long-term track forecasts are the GFS (AVNO), the Navy model (NGPS), the GFDL model, and the UK Met Office model (UKM). You can see these models on the 'late' cycle track product. NHC is very fond of using a combined average of these models, called CONU (for Consensus).

Each model tends to have its own vagaries and biases, but averaging them together tends to create a better 'hedged' forecast that has smaller forecast errors at most or all times into the future (through 120 h, or 5 days). That is also shown on the late guidance page. NHC often uses whatever CONU says as a first cut at the making the official forecast. But basically, it's a crapshoot -- even if a model has a lower average forecast error, it can still have a horrible forecast once in a while. If all the global models are in agreement, then that tends to give the forecasters confidence that the consensus forecast is probably okay. I this case, it is still too early to tell, although most of the models suggest that the storm will already be north of Fort Lauderdale's latitude by Friday. They also suggest that the storm will be out in the Gulf of Mexico west of Florida, although I would by no means say this is a guarantee. If you look at the wind probabilities on NHC's page, you can see Miami has a total of a 16% chance of experiencing tropical storm force winds through Friday morning. For your purposes, this is probably the best product to look at -- so there's a roughly 1 in 6 chance that Miami will get storm force winds out of this (maybe in outerbands) from the storm. As the storm gets closer, this probability would be expected to go up. In comparison, Key West has a 26% chance (1 in 4) of getting storm force winds.

*****

 

So I am hopeful that this hurricane won't ruin my wedding next weekend or the cruise the following Monday, but we have seen just how unpredicatble hurricanes can be.

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