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Hurricane Wilma


vicocala

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Hi all,

 

I just got back from the Zuiderdam this afternoon and will start a thread. I looked back a couple of pages and didn't see one so please forgive me if I am starting a new one. I will post a review of the trip within the next day or two, but as it relates to this hurricane I will say the following now. If you did not know, we skipped Nassau because Captain Keijer stopped for additional fuel on Wednesday night in San Juan in the event we needed to stay out to sea. Fortuanately for us that ended up not being needed so we had two sea days and arrived on time this morning. My thanks to him and his staff for thinking ahead and preparing for any eventuality.

 

Now on with the latest update as well as a request for prayers for those in Mexico and us in Florida as we prepare to face the storm. It is very possible, if not probable I may be knocked off the boards with power loss this week, but this is what I can give you now:

 

HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 30

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

5 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005

 

THE CENTER OF WILMA IS JUST ABOUT TO EMERGE OFF THE NORTHEASTERN TIP

OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE ERRATIC NORTHWARD DRIFT SEEMS TO

HAVE EVOLVED INTO A PERSISENT...ALBEIT SLOW...NORTHWARD MOTION OF

ABOUT 2 KT. A VERY GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN

TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST WILMA TO CROSS THE

FLORIDA PENINSULA WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS....WITH THE MOST LIKELY

TIME BEING SOMETIME DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE AGREEMENT ON WHAT

PORTION OF THE PENINSULA WILMA WILL CROSS IS A LITTLE LESS THAN IT

WAS ON PREVIOUS CYCLES... AND SOME DISPARITY REMAINS ON HOW FAST

WILMA WILL ACCELERATE. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS NEARLY CERTAIN IT WILL

SPEED UP AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD FLORIDA SOON...SINCE A LARGE

MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO

DEEPEN... WITH A TROUGH PUSHING WESTERLIES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

DESPITE THE MODEL SPREAD... THE LATEST CONSENSUS IS VERY CLOSE TO

THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH 48 HOURS... SO THE PACE OF

THE NEW FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED. ONLY A SLIGHT NORTHWARD

ADJUSTMENT HAS BEEN APPLIED SINCE MOST OF THE MODELS SHIFTED A TAD

IN THAT DIRECTION. AFTER PASSAGE OVER FLORIDA...THE FORECAST IS

ADJUSTED FARTHER TO THE NORTH TO LEAN TOWARD THE CONSENSUS.

 

A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A CENTRAL

PRESSURE OF 957 MB... NOT TOO MUCH HIGHER THAN ESTIMATED EARLIER

TODAY. THE SFMR MEASURED SURFACE WINDS NEAR 77 KT... AND A

DROPSONDE MEASURED 85 KT SURFACE WINDS... WITH THE LATTER BEING THE

BASIS FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. THERE IS SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR

WILMA TO RESTRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO OVER THE GULF OF

MEXICO... DUE TO WARM WATERS BUT MODERATE SHEAR... AS SHOWN BY THE

GFDL. THEREAFTER... WESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE

MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SHOULD INCREASE AND INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND AS

WILMA APPROACHES FLORIDA... AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.

THE INTENSITY OF WILMA WHILE CROSSING FLORIDA REMAINS QUITE

UNCERTAIN... AND THE BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT IT WILL BE A CATEGORY

TWO OR THREE AT LANDFALL. THE WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO EXPAND AS

IT ACCELERATES AND CROSSES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THEREFORE... THE

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY COVER A LARGE AREA.

 

BASED ON THE TRACK FORECAST AND THE LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM

FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH WILMA...NEW WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR

THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

 

FORECASTER KNABB

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INITIAL 22/2100Z 21.4N 87.1W 85 KT

12HR VT 23/0600Z 21.9N 86.8W 95 KT

24HR VT 23/1800Z 23.1N 85.7W 100 KT

36HR VT 24/0600Z 24.9N 83.5W 95 KT

48HR VT 24/1800Z 27.8N 79.6W 80 KT

72HR VT 25/1800Z 38.0N 69.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

96HR VT 26/1800Z 45.0N 58.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

120HR VT 27/1800Z 49.0N 44.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

 

 

$$

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Vicocala,

 

Welcome home. I hope that you had a great time. I will look forward to reading your post. I noticed that tropical storm warnings have gone up, and some are saying that we could have some very gusty conditions even here close to us. I hope that you and your family stay safe as well as all the others in the path of Wilma. Thanks for starting the thread.

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Thanks for the well wishes and my prayers are with all in her path.

 

HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 31

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

10 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2005

 

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF

THE FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY. A

HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST

COAST FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST

COAST FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

 

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON

THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS.

 

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT ON

THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN.

 

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBA PROVINCES OF

CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL

STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE

WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS.

 

AT 11 PM EDT...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN

BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...

BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE.

 

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST

NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO TITUSVILLE. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL

LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THIS AREA SUNDAY MORNING.

 

AT 11 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE

FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER.

 

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF

FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF TITUSVILLE NORTHWARD TO FERNANDINA BEACH.

 

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED

WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO

PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A

HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN

THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING

MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE

WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH

MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN

THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

 

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

 

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.9 WEST OR ABOUT 50

MILES... 85 KM NORTH OF CANCUN MEXICO. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 375

MILES... 605 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

 

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH... 6 KM/HR. A TURN

TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON

SUNDAY. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER AWAY FROM THE YUCATAN

PENINSULA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON

SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...

AND WILMA COULD AGAIN BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON SUNDAY.

 

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...

FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP

TO 200 MILES...325 KM. AN AUTOMATED STATION AT THE ISLA MUJERES

MEXICO RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 53 MPH... 86 KM/HR...

WITH A GUST TO 69 MPH... 111 KM/HR.

 

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 959 MB...28.32 INCHES.

 

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 13 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS

POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST AND NEAR AND TO THE

SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL. STORM SURGE

FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS

AND FLORIDA BAY...AS WELL AS IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE. STORM SURGE

FLOODING ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS SHOULD

SUBSIDE AS WILMA MOVES AWAY.

 

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10

TO 15 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE

YUCATAN PENINSULA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS

APPROACHING 50 INCHES. RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING

THE KEYS THROUGH TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE 4 TO 8 INCHES... WITH

ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

 

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE

EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE

NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

 

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE

FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

 

REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...21.8 N... 86.9 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 959 MB.

 

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL

HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT

COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM CDT.

 

FORECASTER BEVEN

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Bulletin

Hurricane Wilma Intermediate Advisory Number 33a

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

1 Pm Cdt Sun Oct 23 2005

 

...category Two Wilma Gradually Accelerating Northeastward...

...could Strengthen Today Or Tonight Over Warm Gulf Waters...

 

A Hurricane Warning Remains In Effect For All Of The Florida

Keys...including The Dry Tortugas And Florida Bay...along The

Florida West Coast From Longboat Key Southward...and Along The

Florida East Coast From Titusville Southward...including Lake

Okeechobee.

 

A Tropical Storm Warning Remains In Effect Along The Florida West

Coast North Of Longboat Key To Steinhatchee River...and Along The

Florida East Coast North Of Titusville To Flagler Beach.

 

A Tropical Storm Watch Remains In Effect Along The East Coast Of

Florida From North Of Flagler Beach To Fernandina Beach.

 

A Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect For The Northeastern Coast Of

The Yucatan Peninsula From San Felipe To Tulum...including Cozumel

And The Nearby Islands.

 

A Hurricane Warning Remains In Effect For The Cuban Provinces Of

Ciudad De La Habana...la Habana...and Pinar Del Rio. A Tropical

Storm Warning Is In Effect For The Isle Of Youth. A Hurricane

Watch Remains In Effect For The Province Of Matanzas.

 

A Hurricane Warning Remains In Effect For The Northwestern

Bahamas...including The Abacos...andros Island...berry Islands...

Bimini...eleuthera...grand Bahama Island...and New Providence.

 

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible

Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued

By Your Local Weather Office.

 

At 1 Pm Cdt...1800z...the Center Of Hurricane Wilma Was Located

Near Latitude 23.1 North... Longitude 85.3 West Or About 240

Miles... 390 Km... West-southwest Of Key West Florida... Or About

300 Miles... 485 Km... Southwest Of The Southwestern Coast Of The

Florida Peninsula.

 

Wilma Is Moving Toward The Northeast Near 12 Mph... 19 Km/hr. A

Continued Northeastward Motion And A Gradual Increase In Forward

Speed Are Expected Today And Monday.

 

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 100 Mph...160 Km/hr...with Higher

Gusts. Wilma Is A Category Two Hurricane On The Saffir-simpson

Scale. Some Strengthening Is Possible Today Or Tonight.

 

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 70 Miles...110 Km...

From The Center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up

To 200 Miles...325 Km. Within The Past Few Hours... Wind Gusts To

64 Mph... 103 Km/hr... Were Reported At La Palma On The Northern

Coast Of Western Cuba. Also...the Havana Cuba Meteorological

Office Recently Measured A Wind Gust To 62 Mph... 100 Km/hr.

 

The Minimum Central Pressure Recently Reported By An Air Force

Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Was 963 Mb...28.44 Inches.

 

Storm Surge Flooding Of 9 To 15 Ft Above Normal Tide Levels Is

Possible Along The Southwest Florida Coast Near And To The

South Of Where The Center Of Wilma Makes Landfall. Storm Surge

Flooding Of 5 To 8 Ft Above Normal Is Possible In The Florida Keys

And Florida Bay...as Well As In Lake Okeechobee. Storm Surge

Flooding Of 2 To 4 Feet Is Possible Along The Extreme Southeastern

Coast Of Florida. Storm Surge Flooding Along The Yucatan Peninsula

And The Nearby Islands Should Gradually Subside As Wilma Moves

Away.

 

Wilma Is Expected To Produce Additional Rainfall Accumulations Of 10

To 15 Inches Through Sunday Across Portions Of Western Cuba And 2 To

4 Inches Across The Northeastern Yucatan Peninsula... With Isolated

Maximum Storm Total Amounts Approaching 50 Inches. Rainfall Across

Southern Florida Including The Keys Through Tuesday Is Expected To

Be 4 To 8 Inches... With Isolated Maximum Amounts Of 12 Inches

Possible.

 

Large Swells Generated By Wilma Will Continue To Propagate Into The

Eastern Gulf Of Mexico. These Swells Could Affect Portions Of The

Northern Gulf Coast Today And Tonight.

 

Isolated Tornadoes Are Possible Over The Central And Southern

Florida Peninsula And The Florida Keys Today And Tonight.

 

Repeating The 1 Pm Cdt Position...23.1 N... 85.3 W. Movement

Toward...northeast Near 12 Mph. Maximum Sustained

Winds...100 Mph. Minimum Central Pressure... 963 Mb.

 

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At

4 Pm Cdt.

 

Forecaster Knabb

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Hurricane Wilma Discussion Number 35

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

11 Pm Edt Sun Oct 23 2005

 

Wilma Has Continued To Become Better Organized This Evening With The

Large 45 Nmi Diameter Becoming Very Distinct In Both Satellite And

Radar Imagery. Air Force Recon Found 700 Mb Flight-level Winds Of

114 Kt In The Northeast Quadrant At 0104z... Which Equals About 103

Kt Surface Winds. Doppler Velocity Data From Key West Has Also Been

As High As 109 Kt At 12000 Ft. The Central Pressure Has Decreased

To 958 Mb... Or About 104 Kt Using A Standard Pressure-wind

Relationship. Based On This Wind Information And The Continued

Increase In The Eyewall Convection... The Initial Intensity Has

Been Conservatively Increased To 100 Kt... Or Category Three/major

Hurricane Status. A Recon Vortex Message Just Handed To Me Now

Indicates The Pressure Has Decreased To 957 Mb.

 

The Initial Motion Is 050/16. Due To A Slight Northward Tilt... The

Surface Center Has Been Placed About One-tenth Of A Degree South Of

The Recon Positions. Wilma Has Increased Its Forward Speed By 4 Kt

During The Past 6 Hours... And Continued Acceleration Is Expected

For The Next 24 Hours. Wilma Will Likely Be Moving At Forward

Speeds Of 20 Kt Or Greater When It Reaches The Southwestern Florida

Coast And Crosses Over The Southern Florida Peninsula. The Nhc

Model Guidance Is Now Tightly Packed Around The Previous Forecast

Track... So No Significant Changes Were Made Other Than To Increase

Forward Speed At All Times... Especially After Wilma Emerges Over

The Western Atlantic. In The Short Term... Water Vapor Imagery...

00z Upper-air Data... And Dropsonde Data From The Noaa G-iv Jet

Aircraft Indicate The Deep Layer Trough Over The Central U.s. Has

Extended Its Influence Into The Western And Central Gulf Of Mexico.

Westerly Mid-level Winds Of 15-20 Kt Are Now Impinging On The

Western Side Of Wilma... So A Continued Northeastward Motion Toward

The Southwest Florida Coast And Across The Southern Florida Seems

Likely. Therefore... A Track From Collier County To Near Lake

Okeechobee And Exiting Palm Beach County During The Next 18 Hours

Seems Quite Reasonable. However... Given That Wilma Has A 40-50 Nmi

Diameter Eye... Hurricane-force Winds Will Extend Well Away From

Where The Exact Center Passes. In The Longer Term... Once Wilma

Emerges Over The Atlantic... The Deep Layer Trough Is Forecast To

Continue Digging Sharply Southward Over The Southeastern U.s. And

The Gulf Of Mexico. This Should Act To Lift Wilma Rapidly Northeast

To North-northeastward And Continue To Accelerate The Hurricane Off

The U.s. East Coast... With A Possible Second Landfall Occurring

Over Nova Scotia As A Powerful And Very Large Extratropical Low

Pressure System. The Official Forecast Track Is Similar To The

Previous Forecast... And Is Close To The Nhc Guna Consensus Model.

 

Now That Wilma Has Accelerated Northeastward... The Effects Of Any

Upper-level Shear Should Be Minimized Right Up Until The Hurricane

Reaches The Florida East Coast. The Various Global Models Indicate

The Dual Outflow Channels Should Remain Intact Until Wilma Reaches

The Atlantic Ocean... Which Favor At Least Sustaining The Current

Intensity. Eyes This Large Are Also More Stable And Are More

Resistant To Vertical Shear. As Such... Wilma Is Expected To Be A

Major Hurricane At Landfall Along The Southwest Florida Coast Early

Monday Morning. However... Another 5-kt Increase In Intensity May

Occur While Wilma Remains Over The Slightly Warmer Gulf Loop

Current. Given The Fast Forward Speed Expected As Wilma Traverses

The Southern Florida Peninsula... Less Weakening Should Occur As

Compared To Typical Hurricanes Moving Over Land. Therefore... Wilma

Is Expected To Be A Category Two Hurricane When It Reaches The

Florida East Coast. After Emerging Over The Atlantic... Increasing

Vertical Shear In Excess Of 50 Kt And Merger With A Frontal System

Should Result In Wilma Transitioning Into A Significant

Extratropical Winter-type Storm System... Which May Produce A Large

Gale Area On The West Side Of The Storm That Could Affect Portions

Of The U.s. East Coast And The Canadian Maritimes.

 

Forecaster Stewart

 

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

 

Initial 24/0300z 24.4n 83.7w 100 Kt

12hr Vt 24/1200z 26.2n 81.2w 100 Kt...inland Swrn Florida

24hr Vt 25/0000z 30.2n 76.3w 75 Kt...over Atlantic

36hr Vt 25/1200z 36.5n 69.9w 65 Kt...becoming Extratropical

48hr Vt 26/0000z 42.9n 64.7w 60 Kt...extratropical

72hr Vt 27/0000z 48.0n 60.0w 55 Kt...extratropical

96hr Vt 28/0000z 49.5n 49.5w 55 Kt...extratropical

120hr Vt 29/0000z 50.0n 38.0w 55 Kt...extratropical

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Bulletin

Hurricane Wilma Intermediate Advisory Number 35a

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

1 Am Edt Mon Oct 24 2005

 

...wilma Headed For The Southwest Florida Coast...tropical Storm

Force Winds Lashing The Lower Florida Keys And Western Cuba...

 

A Hurricane Warning Remains In Effect For All Of The Florida

Keys... Including The Dry Tortugas And Florida Bay...along The

Florida West Coast From Longboat Key Southward... And Along The

Florida East Coast From Titusville Southward... Including Lake

Okeechobee.

 

A Tropical Storm Warning Remains In Effect Along The Florida West

Coast North Of Longboat Key To Steinhatchee River...and Along The

Florida East Coast North Of Titusville To St. Augustine.

 

A Tropical Storm Watch Is Now In Effect Along The Northeast Coast Of

Florida From North Of St. Augustine To Fernandina Beach.

 

A Hurricane Warning Remains In Effect For The Cuban Provinces Of

Ciudad De La Habana...la Habana...and Pinar Del Rio. A Tropical

Storm Warning Is In Effect For The Isle Of Youth. A Hurricane

Watch Remains In Effect For The Province Of Matanzas. These Warnings

And Watches Will Likely Be Discontinued Later This Morning.

 

A Hurricane Warning Remains In Effect For The Northwestern

Bahamas...including The Abacos...andros Island...berry Islands...

Bimini...eleuthera...grand Bahama Island...and New Providence.

 

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible

Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued

By Your Local Weather Office.

 

At 1 Am Edt...0500z...the Center Of The Large Eye Of Hurricane Wilma

Was Located Near Latitude 24.7 North... Longitude 83.3 West Or

About 100 Miles West Of Key West Florida...and About 140 Miles

Southwest Of Naples Florida.

 

Wilma Is Moving Toward The Northeast Near 18 Mph...and An Increase

In Forward Speed Is Expected Today. On This Track...the Center

Will Make Landfall Along The Southwestern Coast Of The Florida

Peninsula Later This Morning. However... Wilma Is A Large

Hurricane And Tropical Storm Force Winds Will Reach The Florida

Peninsula Well Before The Eye Makes Landfall. The Eastern

Portion Of The Eyewall... Accompanied By The Strongest Winds...

Will Reach The Southwestern Coast Of Florida About 2 Hours Before

The Center Of The Large Eye Makes Landfall.

 

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 115 Mph...with Higher Gusts. Wilma

Is A Category Three Hurricane On The Saffir-simpson Scale. Little

Change In Strength Is Expected Until Landfall. Some Weakening Is

Likely As Wilma Crosses The Southern Florida Peninsula.

 

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 85 Miles From The

Center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up

To 230 Miles. A Wind Gust To 53 Mph Was Reported At Havana Cuba And

A Wind Gust To 49 Mph Was Reported At Key West.

 

The Minimum Central Pressure Recently Reported By An Air Force

Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Was 954 Mb...28.17 Inches.

 

Storm Surge Flooding Of 9 To 17 Ft Above Normal Tide Levels Is

Possible Along The Southwest Florida Coast Near And To The

South Of Where The Center Of Wilma Makes Landfall. Storm Surge

Flooding Of 5 To 8 Ft Above Normal Is Possible In The Florida Keys

And Florida Bay... As Well As In Lake Okeechobee. Storm Surge

Flooding Of 2 To 4 Feet Is Possible Along The Extreme Southeastern

Coast Of Florida.

 

Wilma May Produce Additional Rainfall Accumulations Of 5 To 10

Inches Through Today Across Portions Of Western Cuba. Rainfall

Across Southern Florida And Portions Of Central Florida...

Including The Florida Keys Is Expected To Be 4 To 8 Inches... With

Isolated Maximum Amounts Of 12 Inches Possible. Rainfall Totals Of

2 To 4 Inches Will Be Possible Over Portions Of The Northwest

Bahamas.

 

Large Swells Generated By Wilma Will Continue To Affect Portions Of

The Northeastern Gulf Coast From The Florida Keys Northward Today.

 

Some Tornadoes Are Possible Over Portions Of The Central And

Southern Florida Peninsula And The Florida Keys This Morning.

 

Repeating The 1 Am Edt Position......24.7 N... 83.3 W. Movement

Toward...northeast Near 18 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...115 Mph.

Minimum Central Pressure... 954 Mb.

 

An Intermediate Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane

Center At 3 Am Edt Followed By The Next Complete Advisory At 5 Am

Edt.

 

Forecaster Pasch

 

$$

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Hurricane Wilma Intermediate Advisory Number 35b

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

3 Am Edt Mon Oct 24 2005

 

...wilma Slightly Stronger...headed For The Southwest Coast Of

Florida...

 

A Hurricane Warning Remains In Effect For All Of The Florida

Keys... Including The Dry Tortugas And Florida Bay...along The

Florida West Coast From Longboat Key Southward... And Along The

Florida East Coast From Titusville Southward... Including Lake

Okeechobee.

 

A Tropical Storm Warning Remains In Effect Along The Florida West

Coast North Of Longboat Key To Steinhatchee River...and Along The

Florida East Coast North Of Titusville To St. Augustine.

 

A Tropical Storm Watch Remains In Effect Along The Northeast Coast

Of Florida From North Of St. Augustine To Fernandina Beach.

 

A Hurricane Warning Remains In Effect For The Cuban Provinces Of

Ciudad De La Habana...la Habana...and Pinar Del Rio. A Tropical

Storm Warning Is In Effect For The Isle Of Youth. A Hurricane

Watch Remains In Effect For The Province Of Matanzas. These Warnings

And Watches Will Likely Be Later This Morning.

 

A Hurricane Warning Remains In Effect For The Northwestern

Bahamas...including The Abacos...andros Island...berry Islands...

Bimini...eleuthera...grand Bahama Island...and New Providence.

 

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible

Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued

By Your Local Weather Office.

 

The Previous Position Estimate Was A Little Too Far To The East.

At 3 Am Edt...0700z...the Large Eye Of Hurricane Wilma Was

Located Near Latitude 25.1 North... Longitude 82.8 West Or About

75 Miles West-northwest Of Key West Florida And About 95 Miles

Southwest Of Naples Florida.

 

Wilma Is Moving Toward The Northeast Near 20 Mph... And A Continued

Increase In Forward Speed Is Expected During The Next 24 Hours. On

This Track The Center Will Make Landfall Along The Southwestern

Coast Of The Florida Peninsula Later This Morning. However...this

Is A Large Hurricane And Wind Gusts To Hurricane Force Have Already

Spread Over Portions Of The Lower Florida Keys. The Eastern

Portion Of The Eyewall... Accompanied By The Strongest Winds...

Will Reach The Southwestern Coast Of Florida About 2 Hours Before

The Center Of The Large Eye Makes Landfall.

 

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 120 Mph...with Higher Gusts. Wilma

Is A Category Three Hurricane On The Saffir-simpson Scale. No

Significant Change In Strength Is Expected Until Landfall. Some

Weakening Is Likely As Wilma Crosses The Southern Florida Peninsula

Today.

 

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 85 Miles From The

Center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up

To 230 Miles. A Wind Gust To 76 Mph Was Recently Reported At Key

West.

 

The Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 954 Mb...28.17 Inches.

 

Storm Surge Flooding Of 9 To 17 Ft Above Normal Tide Levels Is

Possible Along The Southwest Florida Coast Near And To The

South Of Where The Center Of Wilma Makes Landfall. Storm Surge

Flooding Of 5 To 8 Ft Above Normal Is Possible In The Florida Keys

And Florida Bay... As Well As In Lake Okeechobee. Storm Surge

Flooding Of 2 To 4 Feet Is Possible Along The Extreme Southeastern

Coast Of Florida.

 

Wilma May Produce Additional Rainfall Accumulations Of 5 To 10

Inches Through Today Across Portions Of Western Cuba. Rainfall

Across Southern Florida And Portions Of Central Florida...

Including The Florida Keys Is Expected To Be 4 To 8 Inches... With

Isolated Maximum Amounts Of 12 Inches Possible. Rainfall Totals Of

2 To 4 Inches Will Be Possible Over Portions Of The Northwest

Bahamas.

 

Large Swells Generated By Wilma Will Continue To Affect Portions Of

The Northeastern Gulf Coast From The Florida Keys Northward Today.

 

Some Tornadoes Are Possible Over Portions Of The Central And

Southern Florida Peninsula And The Florida Keys This Morning.

 

Repeating The 3 Am Edt Position...25.1 N... 82.8 W. Movement

Toward...northeast Near 20 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...120 Mph.

Minimum Central Pressure... 954 Mb.

 

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At

5 Am Edt.

 

Forecaster Pasch

 

$$

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Vicocala,

 

Thanks for the update. You take care of yourself today, and my prayers are not only with you and your family but with our entire CC family in harm's way. Please try to check in during the day and let us know how you are doing. So far here in Gainesville, we just have some rain bands.

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Well, I just heard from Mom in Key West. The storm ripped through Key West last night and stripped all the leaves off the trees and caused some very minor flooding. She lost a small overhang on one side of her house, which my dad put there in '70 and always told her it would be the first thing to go in a strong west wind. She's insured to the hilt. She didn't even lose any plants! (she's an orchid grower/dealer)

 

The Mayor said the mess would be cleaned up by noon. I guess through most of the night the downtown was a big party and pub-crawl, only locals because the tourists all left. My kind of town.

 

So lets keep our fingers crossed for Fort Lauderdale and West Palm.

 

Lane

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Bulletin

Hurricane Wilma Intermediate Advisory Number 36b

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

9 Am Edt Mon Oct 24 2005

 

...wilma Centered Over The Southern Florida Peninsula...

 

A Hurricane Warning Remains In Effect For All Of The Florida

Keys... Including The Dry Tortugas And Florida Bay...along The

Florida West Coast From Longboat Key Southward... And Along The

Florida East Coast From Titusville Southward... Including Lake

Okeechobee.

 

A Tropical Storm Warning Remains In Effect Along The Florida West

Coast North Of Longboat Key To Steinhatchee River...and Along The

Florida East Coast North Of Titusville To St. Augustine.

 

A Tropical Storm Watch Remains In Effect Along The Northeast Coast

Of Florida From North Of St. Augustine To Fernandina Beach.

 

A Hurricane Warning Remains In Effect For The Cuban Provinces Of

Ciudad De La Habana...la Habana...and Pinar Del Rio. A Tropical

Storm Warning Is In Effect For The Isle Of Youth. A Hurricane

Watch Remains In Effect For The Province Of Matanzas. These Warnings

And Watches Will Likely Be Discontinued Later This Morning.

 

A Hurricane Warning Remains In Effect For The Northwestern

Bahamas...including The Abacos...andros Island...berry Islands...

Bimini...eleuthera...grand Bahama Island...and New Providence.

 

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible

Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued

By Your Local Weather Office.

 

At 9 Am Edt...1300z...the Center Of Hurricane Wilma Was Located

Inland Near Latitude 26.3 North...longitude 80.7 West Or About 45

Miles Southwest Of West Palm Beach Florida.

 

Wilma Is Moving Toward The Northeast Near 25 Mph And A Continued

Increase In Forward Speed Is Expected During The Next 24 Hours. On

This Track The Center Will Emerge Off The East Coast Of The Southern

Florida Peninsula And Move Into The Atlantic Later Today. This Is

A Large Hurricane And The Strongest Winds In The Eyewall Extend

Well Away From The Center. Persons Are Advised Not To Venture

Outdoors During The Relative Calm Of The Eye Because Winds Will

Soon Increase Quite Rapidly.

 

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 110 Mph...with Higher Gusts. Wilma

Is A Category Two Hurricane On The Saffir-simpson Scale. Wind

Speeds About One Category Stronger Could Be Experienced In High

Rise Buildings. Some Continued Weakening Is Likely As Wilma

Crosses The Southern Florida Peninsula Today.

 

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 90 Miles From The

Center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 230

Miles. Recently The Fowey Rocks Coastal-marine Automated Network

Station...an Elevated Platform Just Off The East Coast Of Florida

From Key Biscayne... Reported A Peak Wind Gust Of 116 Mph. Opa

Locka Airport Reported Sustained Winds Of 85 Mph With A Gust To 105

Mph.

 

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 952 Mb...28.11 Inches.

 

Storm Surge Flooding Of 12 To 18 Ft Above Normal Tide Levels Is

Still Possible Along The Southwest Florida Coast Near And To The

South Of Where The Center Has Made Landfall. Storm Surge

Flooding Of 5 To 9 Ft Above Normal Is Possible In The Florida Keys

And Florida Bay... As Well As In Lake Okeechobee. Storm Surge

Flooding Of 2 To 4 Feet Is Possible Along The Extreme Southeastern

Coast Of Florida.

 

Wilma Is Expected To Produce 4 To 6 Inches Of Rainfall...with

Maximum Amounts Of 10 Inches...across Central And Southern

Florida...including The Florida Keys. Western Cuba May See

Additional Rainfall Accumulations Of 2 To 4 Inches Through Today.

Rainfall Totals Of 2 To 4 Inches Are Possible Over Portions Of The

Northwest Bahamas.

 

Tornadoes Are Possible Over Portions Of The Central And Southern

Florida Peninsula And The Florida Keys Today.

 

Repeating The 9 Am Edt Position...26.3 N... 80.7 W. Movement

Toward...northeast Near 25 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...110 Mph.

Minimum Central Pressure... 952 Mb.

 

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At

11 Am Edt.

 

Forecaster Knabb

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revneal,

 

Yes, we have many CC'ers who are in South Florida. I am in North Central Florida and we are still expecting tropical storm gusts of up to 55 MPH.

 

I suppose my question wasn't specific enough. I remember that we have several CC'ers who live in the direct path of Wilma; I just don't remember their names. I was trying to find out who they were so I could pray for them by name. Too late. Sorry.

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Hurricane Wilma Discussion Number 37

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

11 Am Edt Mon Oct 24 2005

 

The Geometric Center Of The Large Eye Of Wilma Is Now Moving Off The

Coast Of Southeastern Florida Near Palm Beach. However...the Eye

Remains Quite Large And Completely Intact... Even On The West Or

Back Side That Is Still Over The Peninsula. Some Inland Areas Have

Been Experiencing A Relative Calm Period... But One That Is Fairly

Short-lived Due To The Fast Northeastward Motion Of About 22 Kt.

Winds In The Western Eyewall Remain Just About As Strong As On The

East Side. Nws Miami Wsr-88d Radar Velocities Still Indicate Winds

Near 120 Kt At About 5000 Ft Over Land. Even Stronger Winds Are

Probably Still Occurring Over Water... And The Intensity Is Lowered

Only Slightly To 90 Kt. Surface Observations Throughout Florida

Indicate The System Remains Large... And None Of The Warnings For

The Florida Peninsula Can Yet Be Discontinued. Only A Gradual

Weakening Is Expected During The Next Couple Of Days. Wilma Should

Transform Into A Powerful Extratropical Cyclone Within A Day Or Two

As It Interacts With An Intense Baroclinic Trough Over The Eastern

United States. The Track And Intensity Forecasts Are Essentially

Just Updates Of The Previous Advisory... Except To Speed Up The

Forecast Slightly To Keep Up With The Dynamical Model Consensus.

 

 

Forecaster Knabb

 

 

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

 

Initial 24/1500z 26.9n 80.0w 90 Kt

12hr Vt 25/0000z 30.3n 75.8w 85 Kt

24hr Vt 25/1200z 36.1n 68.9w 70 Kt

36hr Vt 26/0000z 42.1n 61.6w 60 Kt...extratropical

48hr Vt 26/1200z 44.9n 55.7w 60 Kt...extratropical

72hr Vt 27/1200z 46.5n 44.0w 55 Kt...extratropical

96hr Vt 28/1200z 47.5n 36.0w 55 Kt...extratropical

120hr Vt 29/1200z 49.0n 25.0w 50 Kt...extratropical

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Bulletin

Hurricane Wilma Intermediate Advisory Number 37a

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

1 Pm Edt Mon Oct 24 2005

 

...large Eye Of Wilma Emerges Into The Atlantic Ocean...

...western Eyewall Continuing To Impact Eastern Florida...

 

At 1 Pm Edt...1700z...the Tropical Storm Warning From North Of

Longboat Key To Steinhatchee River Has Been Discontinued.

 

A Tropical Storm Warning Remains In Effect Along The East Coast Of

Florida North Of Titusville To St. Augustine.

 

A Hurricane Warning Remains In Effect For All Of The Florida

Keys... Including The Dry Tortugas And Florida Bay... Along The

Florida West Coast From Longboat Key Southward... And Along The

Florida East Coast From Titusville Southward... Including Lake

Okeechobee.

 

A Hurricane Warning Remains In Effect For The Cuban Provinces Of

Ciudad De La Habana...la Habana...and Pinar Del Rio. A Tropical

Storm Warning Is In Effect For The Isle Of Youth. A Hurricane

Watch Remains In Effect For The Province Of Matanzas. These Warnings

And Watches Will Likely Be Discontinued Later Today.

 

A Hurricane Warning Remains In Effect For The Northwestern

Bahamas...including The Abacos...andros Island...berry Islands...

Bimini...eleuthera...grand Bahama Island...and New Providence.

 

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible

Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued

By Your Local Weather Office.

 

At 1 Pm Edt...1700z...the Center Of Hurricane Wilma Was Located

Near Latitude 27.3 North... Longitude 79.2 West Or About 65

Miles Northeast Of West Palm Beach Florida.

 

Wilma Is Moving Toward The Northeast Near 25 Mph...41 Km/hr. A

Continued Increase In Forward Speed Is Expected During The Next 24

Hours. On This Track The Large Eye Will Continue Moving Away From

The East Coast Of The Southern Florida Peninsula Today And Tonight.

However...wilma Is A Large Hurricane And The Strongest Winds In The

Eyewall Extend Well Away From The Center. Persons Are Urged Not To

Venture Outdoors Since Strong Winds Remain Over The Florida

Peninsula West Of The Eye.

 

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 105 Mph...165 Km/hr...with Higher

Gusts. Wilma Is A Category Two Hurricane On The Saffir-simpson

Scale. Wind Speeds About One Category Stronger Could Be

Experienced In High Rise Buildings. Little Change In Strength Is

Expected Today.

 

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 100 Miles...160 Km...

From The Center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up

To 260 Miles...415 Km.

 

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 956 Mb...28.23 Inches.

 

Storm Surge Should Generally Be Decreasing Today Along The

Southwestern Florida Coast...in The Lower Florida Keys...and

Extreme Southeastern Florida. Storm Surge Flooding Should Begin To

Decrease In Florida Bay Later This Afternoon Through This Evening.

As Wilma Moves Away From Florida...storm Surge Flooding Of 2 To 4

Feet Is Still Possible Along The Palm Beach...martin...and St.

Lucie Shorelines To The North Of The Storm Track. Storm Surge Of 5

To 8 Feet Is Still Possible In Lake Okeechobee.

 

Wilma Is Expected To Produce Additional 2 To 4 Inch Rainfall Amounts

Over Portions Of Central And Southern Florida...with Maximum Storm

Total Amounts Of 12 Inches Possible. Western Cuba May Receive

Additional 1 To 3 Inch Rainfall Amounts Over Localized Areas.

Rainfall Totals Of 2 To 4 Inches Are Possible Over Portions Of The

Northwestern Bahamas.

 

Tornadoes Are Possible Over Portions Of The Central And Southern

Florida Peninsula Today.

 

Repeating The 1 Pm Edt Position...27.3 N... 79.2 W. Movement

Toward...northeast Near 25 Mph. Maximum Sustained

Winds...105 Mph. Minimum Central Pressure... 956 Mb.

 

An Intermediate Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane

Center At 3 Pm Edt Followed By The Next Complete Advisory At 5 Pm

Edt.

 

Forecaster Knabb

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Just read on Port Everglades web site that the port is closed to all ships, trucks making deliveries etc. The CG will assess damage tomorrow at 7am. Several ships were due in today and tomorrow so there is bound to be a backup....especially if any of the piers are damaged......jean:cool:

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Hurricane Wilma Discussion Number 39

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

5 Pm Edt Mon Oct 24 2005

 

Wilma Has Continued To Strengthen Since Passing Over Florida. An

Air Force Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Recently Reported 850 Mb Flight

Level Winds Of 132 Kt...corresponding To About 105 Kt Surface

Winds...providing The Basis For The Advisory Intensity. The

Hurricane Also Continues To Accelerate And Is Now Racing

Northeastward At About 32 Kt. When Wilma Transforms Into An

Extratropical Cyclone Is Not Certain. It Might Be Able To Keep

From Becoming Too Entangled With The Strong Baroclinic Trough Over

The Eastern United States For 24 Hours Or More While Running

Roughly Parallel To The Coastline. Wilma Has Been Rather Resistant

Today In Allowing Its Inner Core To Be Disrupted...and It Could

Maintain Deep Convection Near The Circulation Center And Hold On To

Hurricane Status Well Into Tomorrow. Shortly Thereafter It Should

Make The Transition To Extratropical...but Regardless Of When That

Designation Is Made...a Large And Strong Cyclone Will Traverse The

Western And Northern Atlantic For Several Days. The Official

Forecast Follows Most Of The Dynamical Models That Forecast The

Extratropical Storm To Turn More East-northeastward Near The

Canadian Maritimes.

 

 

Forecaster Knabb

 

 

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

 

Initial 24/2100z 29.0n 77.4w 105 Kt

12hr Vt 25/0600z 33.1n 72.6w 85 Kt

24hr Vt 25/1800z 39.4n 65.2w 70 Kt

36hr Vt 26/0600z 43.1n 58.2w 60 Kt...extratropical

48hr Vt 26/1800z 45.0n 53.0w 55 Kt...extratropical

72hr Vt 27/1800z 46.1n 42.5w 55 Kt...extratropical

96hr Vt 28/1800z 47.5n 33.0w 55 Kt...extratropical

120hr Vt 29/1800z 51.5n 22.5w 55 Kt...extratropical

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I've been following this storm closely as I've cruising plans out of Fort Lauderdale for this time period next year. I hope and pray that everyone on these boards has made it through safely with as little damage as possible. I pray that Port Everglades will reopen quickly and that everyone's cruise dreams will become a reality.

 

Debjo

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Unlike Charlie last year the house came through with no problems.

 

Only thing we had here in Orlando was a lot and rain and winds gusting up to 40 mph. Left the house at 0630 this morning and was on the road all day visiting patients. Only problem I had was with my stupidity.

 

Had to see a patient who lives out in the country on a dirt road and it is bad in good weather. Made it to his house by slidding through the water. On the way back slipped into a major puddle and sunk the back tires in mud.

 

Went to get out of my Ford Ranger ato take a look and when my feet hit solid ground I was up to my kneew in water. Did the only thing possible. SCREAMED & CUSSED and then got back into the truck, called AAA, and waited for the tow truct.

 

First thing he said to me was "Why in the he.. are you out in this weather??". Did not need that comment at that time.

 

Got me pulled out and finished work day without any problems except soggy shoes and socks all day.

 

All in all it was a great day to be alive.....

 

Jim & Ruth

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Jim . . . I'm happy to read that your home was unaffected by Wilma! Of course, your day still could have been a lot better, right? Unfortunate for you to have gotten stuck as you did.

 

I'm glad the upper half of the state did not get hit AGAIN! But, I'm still extremely sad to see what has happened to the lower half of Florida. My heart, prayers and thoughts go out to all that have been affected. I have many friends in the area and am very concerned for all.

 

I'll be anxious to hear from Heather and other CC posters from South Florida. Again, I pray they all faired well.

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