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Hurricane Irma Watch


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Tampa has been in the cone for the last 4 or 5 days. The media has over done it with Miami and ignored everywhere else, for the most part.

 

 

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So what would you have had the media do? Just go with the one model and none of the others? The only reason everyone thinks the media is over doing it is because they are watching it a lot more the last few days.
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No-there is too much of that margin of error garbage. They blew it. By their whole margin of error apparently. A lot of people thought this thing had a westerly pattern. Don't tell me partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of rain then crow about accuracy or hide behind margin of error.

 

 

 

Lives are at stake. If I can't make accurate predictions, I am not picking a horsey.

 

 

 

How else would you suggest the weather smarties do this thing?

 

 

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I'm 1000's of miles away, and dont watch Florida local mews, but national news has been fair in their reporting as has the FL Governor.

 

My understanding has been that all of Florida is in the path of this monster! The Gov using what is at his disposal from weather experts has really done a great job indicating that a western impact was real.

 

The weather smarties can only make best guesses based on likeliness. These spaghetti models which have become so popular all agreed that a western and or eastern coastal hit were likely and have been stating for the past few days that we wont really know until it makes its turn north from Cuba.

 

Not sure saying they got it wrong is fair and i'm also not sure what better option we have if they indeed blew it!

 

This being said, I will add that Miami (being Miami) did get the majority of the "what if" coverage! At times it was as if there wasn't any other cities in Southern FL potentially impacted!

 

 

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Irma is more than twice the size of Florida. Does not matter which side Irma comes into. Sigh...we

are going to take a bad hit. :(

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So what would you have had the media do? Just go with the one model and none of the others? The only reason everyone thinks the media is over doing it is because they are watching it a lot more the last few days.

 

 

 

Look, the media has been implanted in Miami for the last week. Now they are scrambling to get too Naples, St Pete, and Tampa.

 

Tampa has consistently been in the cone for the last week.

 

 

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Irma is more than twice the size of Florida. Does not matter which side Irma comes into. Sigh...we

are going to take a bad hit. :(

 

 

 

Exactly what I was saying --- Weather peeps didn't get it wrong!

 

 

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Calm down-weather experts may have missed their target, but I am more upset with the media pushing the Miami angle constantly. You could not watch the news in Tampa even so far as 24 hours ago, and conclude there was immediate concern.

 

All I'm saying. The media picked its Miami horse. I should have made it clear who I thought the hype problem lay with. Weather people acted responsibly. Predictions are valid and ya, technically within margin of error and they never once said one area was safe.

 

All I am saying is don't rely solely on mass media for decisions. My elderly family is caught off guard. And now I am not sure they can get out. So maybe the personal aspect is seeping into my objectivity.

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Look, the media has been implanted in Miami for the last week. Now they are scrambling to get too Naples, St Pete, and Tampa.

 

Tampa has consistently been in the cone for the last week.

 

 

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Sure, because that was the projected landfall then. Now it's not. Big deal.

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I believe happy hour has started early on many threads...........sigh. I haven't met you yet, but I hope your home is safe, as well as everyone in Irma's path.

 

Thanks! Very nice of you to say so! :)

 

I also, am hoping for the best for all of my Florida friends. Stay safe everyone.

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http://www.royalcaribbean.com/beforeyouboard/itineraryUpdates.do?cS=NAVBAR&pnav=3&snav=10

 

 

 

The Adventure is also going to stop in St Maarten as a humanitarian stop. It's noted that the Majesty will help evacuate some people.

 

 

 

And it appears that RCI isn't going to be the only one doing that.

 

 

 

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/article172281352.html?anf=TOP_STORIES

 

They are sending 2 ships. One to St Thomas/St John and one from San Juan is going to St Maarten. They are dropping off provisions and looking to bring back stranded Americans to the mainland.

 

Good call, nice to see them taking steps to do what they can.

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You sound like a weather terrorist bro. I've lived in Florida all my life. I understand the conditions. If I-95 is passable and the winds are down, we'll go. If not, we won't. Flying an airplane is all about good judgement. I'll apply it here too.

 

There are many tools available to make that judgement. For example, the NHC latest wind probability projections show Ft. Lauderdale at a 5% risk of hurricane force winds through Tuesday. Look it up.

 

And I'd rather get the forecast from the NHC rather than third-party outfits like Windy or Ventusky. They are based on models not forecasts. Models are not forecasts.

 

I watch the data and make decisions.

Well said. Unless you have experienced these strong Hurricanes, lived threw them and way they change, Lot of those models for most people is just too much information...that will change.

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NOAA's margin of error forecasting 72 hours out is 150 miles. Forecasting Irma to hit eastern FL and having her end up on the west coast is well within that margin of error.

 

 

 

24 hour margin of error is still 50 miles. The big question now is how quickly does she shift north and how strong will she be when she makes US land fall. Some "positive" news for Florida - she slowed and probably hit Cuba a little harder than expected a day or two ago, so it looks like Irma won't be a Cat 5 when she hits the US.

i been watching the infrared for the last hour, since the eye has gone over water again, Irma is definitely re-intensifying. Probably won't get to cat 5 again but could easily get back up to a 4.

 

 

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No-there is too much of that margin of error garbage. They blew it. By their whole margin of error apparently. A lot of people thought this thing had a westerly pattern. Don't tell me partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of rain then crow about accuracy or hide behind margin of error.

 

 

 

Lives are at stake. If I can't make accurate predictions, I am not picking a horsey.

 

 

 

I don't know what reports you were listening to. But I keep hearing repeatedly that the entire state was at risk. So that would include where it's now predicted to hit. Honestly I don't know why more people didn't just leave the entire state. People have had days of being told this storm will impact all of Florida.

 

 

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I don't know what reports you were listening to. But I keep hearing repeatedly that the entire state was at risk. So that would include where it's now predicted to hit. Honestly I don't know why more people didn't just leave the entire state. People have had days of being told this storm will impact all of Florida.

 

 

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Many, many people do not have the financial, physical or logistical means to leave the state. Not everyone can just drop all work and family obligations, pack up the SUV or book a flight and go. It doesn't matter what you're 100% sure you would have done, different people have different circumstances from you.

 

Also, for those bagging on the "media", the media followed the NHC track, which was laid right over Miami for a long time.

 

The NHC in turn did the absolute best it could with the forecasting technology we have as a species, which is still pretty terrible when it comes to hurricanes or anything more than 48 hours out.

 

No matter what happens, people are going to whine and point fingers, which solves exactly nothing.

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Many, many people do not have the financial, physical or logistical means to leave the state. Not everyone can just drop all work and family obligations, pack up the SUV or book a flight and go.

 

Also, for those bagging on the "media", the media followed the NHC track, which was laid right over Miami for a long time.

 

The NHC in turn did the absolute best it could with the forecasting technology we have as a species, which is still pretty terrible when it comes to hurricanes or anything more than 48 hours out.

 

No matter what happens, people are going to whine and point fingers, which solves exactly nothing.

Maybe their being from Canada and have no clue about hurricanes is the problem here. No reason to argue with someone that just wants to post nonsense

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Maybe their being from Canada and have no clue about hurricanes is the problem here. No reason to argue with someone that just wants to post nonsense

 

 

Point taken. :)

 

(I've been in the "evacuate or no?" question mark enough times to know it's vastly less black and white than it seems from the outside.)

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