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Hurricane Irma Discussion Here

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***rude comment deleted except for emoji :rolleyes: *****y

 

Information, discussion, reassurance for people are welcome. Rude comments are not.

If you don't agree with what I say, post a meaningful response that causes civil discussion.

Why did you even feel the need to say that?

 

If you want to say "Puerto Rico is on the direct path and will be devastated" then explain why and discuss. We will see whose forecast proves more accurate. I have been hurricane watching for 40 years and I have a pretty good idea what is science and what is for ratings.

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Interesting. The 5pm update from the NHC pushed the last point in the 5 day forecast further west - into the Keys, with no turn to the north for the East Coast or Central Florida. (A lot of people interpreting the computer models really expected the forecast to start showing a turn north into Florida.) So that suggests good news for cruise ships and itineraries for next week from the southeast ports.

 

And maintaining Cat 3 strength. The county that includes the Keys has issued a mandatory evacuation order starting today.

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gfs-sep5.png

 

 

There's the answer on the models. They all shifted west as well. So at this point a turn to the north is expected as it arrives in the keys, and up the west coast of Florida. Naples, Tampa, St. Pete need to prepare now and Mobile, Tallahassee, etc. may see a landfall. New Orleans should be on alert now too.

 

Oh - and let me explain why. The models keep getting update to shift west. This storm is so powerful that it defies past performance of hurricanes in this area. So it is proving to be stronger than the trough to its north than the models have seen.

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Thank you so much for the updates. We are supposed to leave Monday on the Enchantment from Miami. We are driving down from Ohio. I may have to change our route down, but who cares. We don't care where we go just as long as we can get on the boat!

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I'm supposed to be flying to Tampa tomorrow and then cruising to Cuba Thursday. Just wow....

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gfs-sep5.png

 

 

There's the answer on the models. They all shifted west as well. So at this point a turn to the north is expected as it arrives in the keys, and up the west coast of Florida. Naples, Tampa, St. Pete need to prepare now and Mobile, Tallahassee, etc. may see a landfall. New Orleans should be on alert now too.

 

Oh - and let me explain why. The models keep getting update to shift west. This storm is so powerful that it defies past performance of hurricanes in this area. So it is proving to be stronger than the trough to its north than the models have seen.

 

The GFS model is becoming an increasing outlier, but the latest run is showing a near-miss on the east coast of FL.

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gfs-sep5.png

 

 

There's the answer on the models. They all shifted west as well. So at this point a turn to the north is expected as it arrives in the keys, and up the west coast of Florida. Naples, Tampa, St. Pete need to prepare now and Mobile, Tallahassee, etc. may see a landfall. New Orleans should be on alert now too.

 

Oh - and let me explain why. The models keep getting update to shift west. This storm is so powerful that it defies past performance of hurricanes in this area. So it is proving to be stronger than the trough to its north than the models have seen.

 

Some of those model runs are old. The quarter-days like GFS are now on 18Z while the half-days like Euro are at 12Z. Not sure how that changes the picture.

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Good news, bad news for us. We are supposed to leave on Carnival Glory on Saturday morning, I expect it to be cancelled but who knows? We, however, live just north of Tampa, so new models show it threatening our home. UGH!

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Delta has updated their Website with Cancel/Change information for those flying on Delta.

Edited by 2cruzers
Spelling

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Thank you so much for the updates. We are supposed to leave Monday on the Enchantment from Miami. We are driving down from Ohio. I may have to change our route down, but who cares. We don't care where we go just as long as we can get on the boat!

Low prices during hurricane season are for this reason. You took the chance, especially if you didn't buy trip insurance.

 

I feel for friend's businesses who have excursions planned and may be rained out or businesses destroyed.

 

Sent from my SM-G950U using Forums mobile app

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Low prices during hurricane season are for this reason. You took the chance, especially if you didn't buy trip insurance.

 

I feel for friend's businesses who have excursions planned and may be rained out or businesses destroyed.

 

Sent from my SM-G950U using Forums mobile app

 

Why was that comment necessary, he wasn't even complaining? How unbelievably rude.

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It was just a statement.

 

Sent from my SM-G950U using Forums mobile app

 

 

It was not a general statement, it was personally directed, hence why you used "he" to make sure your comment hit its directed target.

 

 

"Mean people suck." That is a statement, see the difference?

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You have posted three times in your history of cruise critic. You are a disturber.

 

Monitor, please take care of this one.

 

Sent from my SM-G950U using Forums mobile app

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If your other 200 plus are as ignorant your most recent you are the disturber. I will show myself out, wouldn't be anywhere your conduct is tolerated.

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I've been stuck in the office all day, so any insight is appreciated. We have until Sept 9 to cancel our Dec 9 cruise. Wondering if we should consider that..... would we even have any real information about port damage? Hoping they evacuated as many of the smaller, poorer islands as possible.

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At this point I'm concerned about our San Juan trip NEXT December.

We have friends in St. Thomas and that's not looking good.

 

Sent from my SM-G950U using Forums mobile app

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I've been stuck in the office all day, so any insight is appreciated. We have until Sept 9 to cancel our Dec 9 cruise. Wondering if we should consider that..... would we even have any real information about port damage? Hoping they evacuated as many of the smaller, poorer islands as possible.

 

I suppose it depends on your itinerary, but I wouldn't be too worried about a 12/9 cruise based on this storm.

 

If specific islands are damaged to the point of being unsafe or having minimal amenities, they will likely revise things to visit different ports.

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My sister and I are sailing on the Carnival Fascination Dec 3, 2017. We have trip insurance but not canceling. We will wait and see. Prayers for all in Irma's path. We are in Virginia.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Forums

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