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Hurricane Irma Discussion Here

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Disney is bringing the Fantasy in early, cancelling Saturday's Fantasy sailing and is also cancelling Friday and Monday sailings on the Dream. While that will disappoint many people I'm sure many others are relieved to get the news with plenty of advance warning.

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The Fascination itinerary; San Juan, St Thomas, Fun Day at Sea, Barbados, St Lucia, St Kitts, St Maarten & return to San Juan.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Forums

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Carnival Conquest cruise leaving Sat. from Fort Lauderdale. When I called today, lady said they make decisions either 24-48 hours before cruise. The ship just rounded Cuba heading for Ocho Rios tomorrow, has not turned around yet. Lots of ships still out there on this website. http://www.***********/cruise-ship-tracker/carnival-cruise-lines/carnival-conquest.php

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For folks booked on cruises in Dec:

For many years, we've cruised the Eastern & Southern Caribbean in the first half of Dec., just after the end of hurricane season on Nov. 30th. Why? It's cheaper than "high season" but great weather; kids are still in school; folks will have traveled or already planning for the Nov & Dec holidays, so ships are less crowded (much greater chance of upgrades!).

 

We've never run into bad weather (the usual "Christmas Breeze" around Grenada that time of year can make snorkeling choppy but still sunny & beautiful).

 

We are going again this Dec & are confident the weather will be lovely & calm by then (unfortunately the reefs may well have gotten some damage). While the weather gods can be capricious & could ignore the official hurricane season dates, we advise remaining optimistic! Plus if the weather is so bad that the ships cancel, you will be refunded (ditto the airlines, etc.).

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00Z GFS update shifted back west but the worst of the winds would still stay offshore FL. Would damage the coast, but probably recoverable by mid-week in terms of being able to use airports/ports/major roadways. Any further shift west would be a problem.

 

Of course, the NHS and the Euro model still call for something very different. So time will tell.

 

For those wanting to watch the storm, here are two cams. Not sure I can post youtube links, so these are the v parameters. You can plug them into the url or usually just google searching them will bring up your video.

 

St. Barth hG-GpHPkBoM

Jost Van Dyke IjGdi7z_B4U

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We have also cruised in December the past few years, but there hasn't been a hurricane.

 

Unless you are well seasoned cruiser, and are not concerned about seeing the underwater sea life, carry on.

 

Refunding may take months of hassle.

 

Sent from my SM-G950U using Forums mobile app

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We've never considered cruising during hurricane season but we do have San Juan, St Thomas and St Martin scheduled for March, 2018. Never really thought about a storm (or more with Jose in the wings) now might jeopardize March.

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We do have Dominican republic on our way to Aruba in December, but that trip leaves from Fort Lauderdale.

 

We all just have to see what happens.

 

Sent from my SM-G950U using Forums mobile app

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We are in the hurricane alley, and I can say it's pretty common for the high surf to arrive about 2 days before the first high winds.

 

Also a hurricane can take about 18-24 hours from the of the first high winds until they die down, and people should not wander outside during this period.

 

Be safe everyone! We're watching Jose! Ugh.

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Euro model is now in agreement with the GFS and looks like a near-miss of FL for the eye. Distance offshore would be huge in that case in terms of feeling some Cat 4-5 effects versus staying in the 1-3 range even out at the ports.

 

More inland airports (such as MCO) should only have minor effects and be back up once the storm passes, if this holds.

 

NHC forecast has also shifted east but it being conservative and the five day cone still includes the whole state.

 

If all of the models start converging around a pass offshore of the east coast, the NHC will shift as well at some point.

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We cruise every September, during a break that my kids have from school. We've had rocky seas, but have been lucky so far - no hurricanes. We're scheduled to sail on the Carnival Vista out of Miami on 9/17. I think we'll still be OK, but I'm watching Jose, and Katia even, to see if anything develops there. If we don't get to go, or our cruise gets altered....no big deal. Carnival will refund our money, and we'll sail again another time. I'm much more worried about those whose homes lie in the hurricane's potential path! I'll be following this thread, as you have some great updates!

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We cruise every September, during a break that my kids have from school. We've had rocky seas, but have been lucky so far - no hurricanes. We're scheduled to sail on the Carnival Vista out of Miami on 9/17. I think we'll still be OK, but I'm watching Jose, and Katia even, to see if anything develops there. If we don't get to go, or our cruise gets altered....no big deal. Carnival will refund our money, and we'll sail again another time. I'm much more worried about those whose homes lie in the hurricane's potential path! I'll be following this thread, as you have some great updates!

 

If the models hold, I would expect Miami to be fine for both airport and cruising by the 17th.

 

Jose will wander out to sea and maybe threaten Bermuda. For it to hit FL, the situation would have to change enough to put Irma into the Gulf, which basically no models are predicting any more.

 

Katia is pinned by the high over Texas and the northern Gulf. It's going to dump buckets on Mexico but again would require a big shift in the major fronts to get out into the northern Gulf.

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The NHC update in a half hour will be interesting. The path over Florida is so uncertain.

Here's update #5 from CDEMA, coordinating disaster relief:

http://www.cdema.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1728:cdema-information-note-5-hurricane-irma-as-of-700-pm-on-september-5th-2017-&catid=39:situation-reports&Itemid=347

 

CDEMA's job as a consortium of Caribbean countries is to provide disaster relief to each other, and coordinate resources from around the world. Take a look. It's an amazing array of resources, a lot of work to coordinate and distribute with so many islands impacted.

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I've been stuck in the office all day, so any insight is appreciated. We have until Sept 9 to cancel our Dec 9 cruise. Wondering if we should consider that..... would we even have any real information about port damage? Hoping they evacuated as many of the smaller, poorer islands as possible.

 

They only evacuated islands like Anegada - very small and may have been inundated by storm surge. They will do the same in T&C and lower Bahamas I think. Mostly they get people into shelters. Damage reports will come in gradually over 1-2 weeks; readiness to begin cruise visits again could be months. I would not cancel my cruise (Dec 3.) They will pick new ports if they have to. I think there will be 2 or 3 islands that cannot receive visitors for some number of months. Hopefully none have their piers destroyed (like Cozumel did) - that takes longest. Aside from that, they want us back spending money as soon as possible.

 

At this point I'm concerned about our San Juan trip NEXT December.

We have friends in St. Thomas and that's not looking good.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Forums mobile app

 

I am not too worried about San Juan. Irma is staying the course. The port is very sheltered. People living along the north coast will suffer 3-5' surge and some damage but they are far enough off the centerline it will be force 1 winds at worst.

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I'm supposed to be flying to Tampa tomorrow and then cruising to Cuba Thursday. Just wow....

 

Cuba? Jealous. Hope you get there, maybe with a delay.

 

Good luck to all of you with cruises departing next few days. Watch the cruise web site, your phone and email like a hawk.

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The 11am EDT NHC update is posted. Still cat 5 185mph at eyewall. Next islands in eyewall path for Category 4/5 winds: BVI islands of Virgin Gorda, Anegada, Tortola, Jost Van Dyke. After that it is difficult to read the likely wind field strength that will hit St. John and St. Thomas - Category 1 at least, but Cat 2 or 3 winds seems possible as well. Path is consistent up through the Florida Straights, which continues the "perfect storm" scenario, meaning no interaction with significant land masses and very warm waters, sustaining a major storm at least category 3 at Florida landfall. The ever changing path onto Florida is a centerline up the middle of the peninsula. If that comes true, it means a strong storm for Miami, West Palm, etc. and a weaker storm for Naples. And a surprise for Orlando as it could be stronger than usually seen compared to storms that have crossed west to east before.

 

Based on this I think we will see another round of cruise cancellations coming soon. And flight cancellations may be problematic for those trying to reach cruises next week.

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More cancellations. 3 night Bahamas itineraries. No other options for all these short trips late this week. And that's just for the approach of the storm; really, the next sailings are at risk because the east coast of Florida looks to be in the thick of it for the 3 days after these two were scheduled.

 

Canrival has canceled:

Carnival Liberty – September 7

Carnival Victory – September 8

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Updated RCCL list:

September 6, 2017 at 11:00 AM EDT (next update tomorrow at 6 PM EDT)

 

The following sailings are canceled:

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Empress of the Seas: September 9 Cuba cruise

Enchantment of the Seas: September 8 Bahamas cruise

Majesty of the Seas: September 8 Bahamas cruise

 

We are very sorry for the impact this storm has had on your vacation and please know that we made the decision with the safety and comfort of our guests and crew in mind. The cruise fare and fees will be 100% refunded to the original form of payment, and we are also offering a 25% future cruise credit, based on the cruise fare, if a new cruise is booked in the next 30 days. If you have any questions, please don't hesitate to call 1-800-256-6649.

 

The following sailings are being modified:

 

Allure of the Seas: September 10 Western Caribbean cruise

The new departure date will be on Wednesday, 9/13 and we will sail a 4-night itinerary to Nassau, Bahamas. We know this change is disappointing, and we are truly sorry for the storm’s impact on your vacation. Should you choose to sail with us we will provide you with a refund of 50% of your cruise fare paid in the form of a refundable onboard credit, and an additional 50% future cruise credit. If you are unable to travel and need to cancel next week’s cruise, we will provide you with a 100% future cruise credit. Pre-booked shore excursions will be refunded to your original form of payment, and you will have the ability to book excursions in our new port of call once onboard.

Harmony of the Seas: September 9 Eastern Caribbean cruise

The new departure date will be on Tuesday, 9/12 and we will sail a 4-night itinerary to Cozumel, Mexico. We know this change is disappointing, and we are truly sorry. Should you choose to sail with us we will provide you with a refund of 50% of your cruise fare paid in the form of a refundable onboard credit, and an additional 50% future cruise credit. If you are unable to travel and need to cancel next week’s cruise, we will provide you with a 100% future cruise credit. Pre-booked shore excursions will be refunded to your original form of payment, and you will have the ability to book excursions in our new port of call once onboard.

 

Oasis of the Seas: September 10 Eastern Caribbean cruise

The new departure date will now be on Tuesday, 9/12 and we will sail a 5-night itinerary to Costa Maya and Cozumel, Mexico. We know this change is disappointing, and we are truly sorry. Should you choose to sail with us we will provide you with a refund of 30% of your cruise fare paid in the form of a refundable onboard credit, and an additional 50% future cruise credit. If you are unable to travel and need to cancel next week’s cruise, we will provide you with a 100% future cruise credit. Pre-booked shore excursions will be refunded to your original form of payment, and you will have the ability to book excursions in our new ports of call once onboard.

 

The following sailings are being monitored and we will have further details in our 6 PM EDT update: (on Thursday)

Anthem of the Seas: September 9 Bermuda cruise

Majesty of the Seas: September 11 Bahamas cruise

Enchantment of the Seas: September 11 Bahamas cruise

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Found a clear radar image (from San Juan). It's clear that St. Thomas and St. John will get full eyewall winds, and St. John will be inside the eye, and some of St. Thomas may be also. Yikes.

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