Jump to content
Cruise Critic Community
PelicanBill

Hurricane Irma Discussion Here

Recommended Posts

St. Maarten, St. Barts, the Turks and Caicos are all going to be really bad off. Puerto Rico is going to depend a lot on small jogs north or south.

 

ETA: Looks like from radar right now that the Virgin Islands might stay out of the eye wall. Still going to leave a lot of damage, but not the worst case if it stays north of them.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The 11am EDT NHC update is posted. Still cat 5 185mph at eyewall. Next islands in eyewall path for Category 4/5 winds: BVI islands of Virgin Gorda, Anegada, Tortola, Jost Van Dyke. After that it is difficult to read the likely wind field strength that will hit St. John and St. Thomas - Category 1 at least, but Cat 2 or 3 winds seems possible as well. Path is consistent up through the Florida Straights, which continues the "perfect storm" scenario, meaning no interaction with significant land masses and very warm waters, sustaining a major storm at least category 3 at Florida landfall. The ever changing path onto Florida is a centerline up the middle of the peninsula. If that comes true, it means a strong storm for Miami, West Palm, etc. and a weaker storm for Naples. And a surprise for Orlando as it could be stronger than usually seen compared to storms that have crossed west to east before.

 

Based on this I think we will see another round of cruise cancellations coming soon. And flight cancellations may be problematic for those trying to reach cruises next week.

 

NHC now matching the models and calling for mainland landfall in MIA-FLL and back out to sea somewhat north of that. Runs up the coast and second landfall in GA.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

BBC News update on early partial reports of damages & destructions left by Irma - which can be accessed via Twitter feeds. Substantial damages - including 4 of the "most solid" buildings in St. Maarten.

 

Both the French & Dutch government have pre-positioned rescue resources and emergency teams on naval resources nearby, ready to deploy once the storm passed over.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-41172726

 

This is another resources/online link to other tools -

https://www.hwn.org/weather/atlantic.html

 

Electricity & cellular services remained OUT since this morning - emergency HAM radio network stations have not yet done any safety check-in since going offline ... not a good indicator.

 

As for airline operations, expect to see more travel waivers for Florida airports to grow, if not already - cancellations will go up and it will be harder to find empty seats. Consider doing one-way car rentals if in the mandatory and/or voluntary evacuation area on a full tank of gasoline.

 

JetBlue has cap a $99 direct flights out of Florida, up to the last available seats - details here https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jetblue-caps-ticket-prices-florida-99-ahead-hurricane-irma-173232462.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=tw

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Low prices during hurricane season are for this reason. You took the chance, especially if you didn't buy trip insurance.

 

I feel for friend's businesses who have excursions planned and may be rained out or businesses destroyed.

 

Sent from my SM-G950U using Forums mobile app

Vacationers need to do their due diligence. Last year we waited until almost the end of hurricane season and still got caught

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
We've never considered cruising during hurricane season but we do have San Juan, St Thomas and St Martin scheduled for March, 2018. Never really thought about a storm (or more with Jose in the wings) now might jeopardize March.

March is not hurricane season so you will be fine.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
March is not hurricane season so you will be fine.

 

I was thinking more of the damage. Especially after seeing what Irma did to St Maarten.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Keeping an eye on Carnival's updates: https://www.carnival.com/travel-alerts.aspx

 

WEATHER UPDATE 9/06/2017 – 1:00 PM (EST)

 

We have been closely monitoring Hurricane Irma, a category 5 storm in the Caribbean. Given the projected path of the storm, the following cruises have been cancelled:

 

Carnival Liberty – September 7

Carnival Victory – September 8

 

A full refund will be automatically processed, including Fly2Fun reservations, pre-purchased Carnival Adventures, Fun Shop purchases and beverage packages. The refund will be processed to your original form of payment within three weeks.

 

While it is difficult to predict the storm’s path with complete certainty, at this point, it is expected that the storm will impact South and Central Florida in the next several days. The safety and security of our guests and crew are our first priority and our ships will remain a safe distance away from the storm at all times.

 

We remain in constant contact with port officials regarding potential port closures in South and Central Florida. Given the uncertainty of the storm’s impact, we expect that we may have to shorten the duration of certain cruises scheduled to depart this weekend. In order to provide the most accurate information, we will confirm any changes to our departures no later than 48 hours prior to the sailing date.

 

Listed below are our sailings from Central and South Florida:

 

Carnival Paradise – September 7

Will depart from Tampa on Thursday, as scheduled. We are still evaluating the ability to call on Havana, as scheduled, and will notify our guests if any modifications are needed at embarkation tomorrow.

 

Carnival Sensation – September 7

Will depart Miami on Thursday, as scheduled. Our call on Key West will be canceled and guests will enjoy an extended stay in Cozumel.

 

Carnival Conquest – September 9

Carnival Glory – September 9

Carnival Magic – September 9

Carnival Splendor – September 9

Carnival Vista – September 9

We are still evaluating the potential impact the storm may have on our scheduled itineraries and will provide an update on Thursday at 1:00 PM.

 

Carnival Liberty – September 10

We are still evaluating the potential impact the storm may have on this sailing and will provide an update on Friday at 1:00 PM.

 

Carnival Sensation – September 11

Carnival Victory – September 11

Our intention is to depart from Miami on Monday, as scheduled. We will confirm our plans on Saturday at 1:00 PM.

 

Guests who sail on shortened cruises will receive a pro-rated refund of their cruise fare. Additionally, anyone who purchased our beverage packages will also receive a pro-rated adjustment. These refunds will be processed to the original form of payment within three weeks. Pre-purchased Carnival Adventures for cancelled ports, as well as any taxes, fees and port expenses will be refunded to your onboard Sail & Sign account. Gratuities will also be adjusted to reflect the shortened duration.

 

Alternatively, should you decide to cancel because your cruise duration has changed, you may do so and receive a future cruise credit in the amount paid, by calling 1-800 CARNIVAL, your Personal Vacation Planner or your travel professional.

 

We will continue to closely monitor Hurricane Irma’s forecasted track and encourage you to come back for further updates and sign up for text alerts by texting the codes below to CRUISE (278473).

 

Carnival Paradise – CCL1

Carnival Conquest – CCL2

Carnival Glory – CCL3

Carnival Magic – CCL4

Carnival Splendor – CCL5

Carnival Vista – CCL6

Carnival Liberty – CCL7

Carnival Victory 9/11 – CCL8

Carnival Sensation 9/07 – CCL9

Carnival Sensation 9/11 – CCL10

 

We sincerely apologize for the disruption Hurricane Irma has caused and we look forward to welcoming our guests on board.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't like what Jose is doing. It's path has moved farther west. I think a lot of cruise ships will have to put out ahead of Irma with passengers on board. They will have to run NE, wanting to return Monday when Irma has passed far enough north - but Jose could be a little close for comfort.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I don't like what Jose is doing. It's path has moved farther west. I think a lot of cruise ships will have to put out ahead of Irma with passengers on board. They will have to run NE, wanting to return Monday when Irma has passed far enough north - but Jose could be a little close for comfort.

 

Do you think Jose will cause problems for cruises leaving Miami on 9/16? We would be flying in late on 9/13 if things are looking OK.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

21314662_1439789052741502_8051496396849728080_n.jpg?oh=0705a1ea4fd87b7d1f203f0ad4f968c1&oe=5A19D44F

This is the St. Maarten port. Surprisingly less evidence of destruction. The long horizontal lines upper left are the cruise piers. Still usable? The area is inundated but buildings here are better than in other areas. But pictures from other places on the island are just terrible.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Do you think Jose will cause problems for cruises leaving Miami on 9/16? We would be flying in late on 9/13 if things are looking OK.

 

It's hard to say. Jose was point to a northward turn sooner but it flatted out a bit. Hang in there.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
It's hard to say. Jose was point to a northward turn sooner but it flatted out a bit. Hang in there.

We appreciate your experience in interpreting these storms. So glad that I found this board!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
We appreciate your experience in interpreting these storms. So glad that I found this board!

 

Thank you. I scour many sources to get a fair picture without the hype. I can't wait for the storm to get past Puerto Rico so people there can breath again. Yes there will be damage and low lying areas on the NE coast are at risk, but PR will not see anywhere close to what Barbuda, St. Maarten/St. Martin, and the BVI experienced the last 48 hours.

 

Latest reports from St. John and St. Thomas say the storm jogged north a bit and took a little off the wind speeds for them. Hoping they are not as hurt as the 3 above were.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21314662_1439789052741502_8051496396849728080_n.jpg?oh=0705a1ea4fd87b7d1f203f0ad4f968c1&oe=5A19D44F

This is the St. Maarten port. Surprisingly less evidence of destruction. The long horizontal lines upper left are the cruise piers. Still usable? The area is inundated but buildings here are better than in other areas. But pictures from other places on the island are just terrible.

 

The buildings nearest the piers would be the port shops with the "Welcome to St Maarten" archway leading to the water taxi. Nowhere near your knowledge on these storms but might they have been spared in part due to the water at the port being deeper than over by town and the boardwalk? Maybe newer construction as well?

 

Using the sidewalk posts as a reference, the water level on Front St in the videos I saw was just under 3 feet. Certainly enough to flood the first floors of businesses. Other videos showed missing roofs, smashed vehicles - one showed a jeep with the hood peeled back like a banana. I can't imagine having to hunker down through that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Major news outlets are the WORST source of weather information. They pick the most sensational elements and drive up the worry and desire to tune on by citing dire news that affects the most people. The first thing they said about Irma? FLORIDA. Gets everyone's attention. Stop 2: PUERTO RICO. Because not only are there a lot of people there, but there are several million mainlanders with family there.

 

 

 

The fact is this: On the present forecast path, the north coast will get 3-5 feel flooding, and tropical storm force winds, with the NE coast getting some category 1 winds. That will cause some damage but this is 40 miles off the centerline of the "direct path." Only the immediate center of the storm sees Cat 5 winds. radius 5 miles at most. Cat 4 to 10 miles, Cat 3 to ~15 miles, cat 2 to ~25 miles, Cat to ~1 to 40 miles. Tropical storm to ~60 miles.

 

 

 

AND - those distances are shorter on the south/SW side of the storm, where PR is, and longer on the north/NE side where the spin "strikes" the worst.

 

 

 

Maybe what you don't understand is that those of us that live in Florida have noticed this storm is taking the identical path hurricane Matthew did last year. That was well before anyone mentioned Florida in the news or even before the media began reporting on the storm. We are already tracking the storms through the National Hurricane Center. Media uses the National Hurricane Center information and then tries their best to inform people. Nothing about a hurricane is sensational. The dangers are real. Didn't you notice that during hurricane Harvey. So please don't down play a hurricane.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Forums

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

From experience, I believe that Port Canaveral will close at 12PM tomorrow and not reopen until Tuesday at the earliest.

 

c3c4e888968f4af8bd09c5cc300cd954.jpg

 

fd8b6fee1b45d0d052c7a6b5e05d71b2.jpg

 

Sent from Middle Earth.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Any updates on how St Thomas fared? We will be there at the end of November.

 

Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Any updates on how St Thomas fared? We will be there at the end of November.

 

Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk

 

Copied and posted from the NCL board

"This is a post from Jr Goldsmith:

So to give you all some insight St Thomas is completely devastated! The Castle was hit extremely hard! Roof is off Hilltop 1, and Villas, as well as one building in PP. other buildings roofs that are not off are in very bad shape. 245 plus sliders have been blown out, and pretty much every unit has taken in massive water in every building. The ceiling in the lobby is down for the most part. As I have heard up to this post everyone survived so that's all that matters, we can always re build, but it will take quite sometime! What people did not realize in a storm like this that hurricane shutters are great but if there wasn't and windows cracked open just a little but to get cross ventilation through the pressure was so massive it was like an explosion. Walls and ceilings are cracked and crumbled, the damage is massive at the castle to say the least. French town is gone, buildings and is under water, as well as the airport under water. The Hospital top two floors all windows blown out and roof is off. Storm surge is at 12 feet and rising, it is floor blocks past Main Street at this time of the post. There has been over a foot of water dumped, and half a foot more to fall over night. They are still receiving 75 mph gusts at this time. Please keep praying as this storm makes Hugo and Marilyn look like bad thunderstorm!"

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I haven't found much in the way of video on St Thomas. One long one from a guy who seemed to be in a resort or villa up in the hills but nothing on the Charlotte-Amalie area.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

11 AM Update.

 

21371179_1528139050584903_5555432532500648029_n.png?oh=0e4d3098992c43ee824fc38e520396b4&oe=5A1EA982

 

As to the ports. You will need to watch and wait for them to update on openings. Everyone predicted H Matthew would do no damage, but it took four days for Port Canaveral to reopen due to damage to the channels and structures.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Forum Jump
    • Categories
      • Q&A with the Coral Expeditions Team
      • Forum Assistance
      • New Cruisers
      • Cruise Lines “A – O”
      • Cruise Lines “P – Z”
      • River Cruising
      • ROLL CALLS
      • Digital Photography & Cruise Technology
      • Member Cruise Reviews
      • Special Interest Cruising
      • Cruise Discussion Topics
      • UK Cruising
      • Australia & New Zealand Cruisers
      • North American Homeports
      • Ports of Call
      • Cruise Conversations
×
×
  • Create New...