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Leslie is expected to move a little southwest, stop, then reverse and go northwest and finally start to weaken to tropical storm level.

 

Nothing else expected across the Atlantic the next 5 days.

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I'm cruising next Friday October 12th to the Bahamas and I'm starting to hear some rumbling about a tropical storm possibly forming named Michael. Does anyone have any info on this? Thanks in advance!

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We our leaving this Sunday October 7th on Serenade of the Seas Boston to Bermuda. Anyone think Seas will be rough because of Leslie? Or is it far enough out that won’t have an effect?

 

 

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We our leaving this Sunday October 7th on Serenade of the Seas Boston to Bermuda. Anyone think Seas will be rough because of Leslie? Or is it far enough out that won’t have an effect?

 

Good question. Leslie has intensified and is fairly large, and won't get closer to Bermuda than it is now, but it is definitely having an effect.

 

Seas are about 10' across a wide area of the Atlantic. The lee of Bermuda, and the reefs, reduces that to 5-7' seas. There may be some showers but most of the rain is well east. Winds are 20-25mph over Bermuda.

 

Elsewhere, there is a disturbance with low chance of development but will bring some weather as it moves north the next 5 days, to Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, and then maybe Cozumel and the Mexico coast.

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Elsewhere, there is a disturbance with low chance of development but will bring some weather as it moves north the next 5 days, to Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, and then maybe Cozumel and the Mexico coast.

 

 

Lovely, just lovely. We are leaving out of Galveston on Carnival Freedom on October 6th for Cozumel, Belize and Roatan. I guess we are going to go head first in to this system.

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Lovely, just lovely. We are leaving out of Galveston on Carnival Freedom on October 6th for Cozumel, Belize and Roatan. I guess we are going to go head first in to this system.

 

The disturbance is moving northwest the next 5 days to the Yucatan and you move south. It's pretty disorganized and you may have some weather for Cozumel but I think it will improve further south depending on order of ports. Still only 30% chance to develop.

 

Near Bermuda, Leslie is moving north away from Bermuda and sometime tomorrow expected to be weaker, back to tropical storm. That should improve seas and weather at Bermuda.

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The disturbance has increased chance of development today, and since someone posted a new thread I made my comments there ("Potentially Michael").

 

Leslie has reduced to tropical storm will hang on for days... but eventually diminish as it moves east... east? yes east! Weird.

 

Oh, and for Bermuda - winds have reduced to 10mph or less, but waves are still almost 10' for a lot of the voyage until reaching the shallow waters there. waves are 5-6' closer to Bermuda's west and central areas including the Cruise port.

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As Leslie moves eastward, conditions in Bermuda are improving. Seas are 7-8' on approach with 4' in the bay (still a lot for the bay though) with a secondary swell of 1-2'. Winds down to a breezy 5-8mph. A passing shower here and there. Not bad.

 

Reporting on the disturbance in the other thread...

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The disturbance is moving northwest the next 5 days to the Yucatan and you move south. It's pretty disorganized and you may have some weather for Cozumel but I think it will improve further south depending on order of ports. Still only 30% chance to develop.

.

 

While still disorganized, seems it's now more of a concern.

80% chance of development in the next 48 hours.

90% chance of development in the next 5 days.

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Leslie has been around 13 days now! And still going.. but going east and no worries. Bermuda should be seeing little effect any longer.

 

Another disturbance further east of Leslie does not have much chance to develop.

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Leslie still churning away to the east... getting stronger again but no threat.

A new disturbance off Africa could develop but has a NW curve that sends it into rather harmless territory for now.

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Welcome back after our "vacation" from Cruise Critic.

There is happily no tropical activity.  Even the small disturbance over Central American is not expected to do anything.

All quiet...

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53 minutes ago, cruisedreamin-gang said:

We leave Saturday for Nassau.  There seems to be some disturbance happening.  What do you think will become of it?

I assume you mean this.  We leave for a short cruise out of Ft L on Sunday - not worried about it.  Lived in St Clairesville in the '60s.

CZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Oct 24 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the
central tropical Atlantic Ocean is associated with a broad area
of low pressure located about 900 miles east of the northern Leeward
Islands.  This system is expected to move slowly northward over the
next few days into an area where environmental conditions are
forecast to be more conducive for development.  A tropical or
subtropical depression could form over the weekend while the system
turns westward well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Pasch

 

 

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Yes, it looks like we have a new stormed likely to be getting a name this weekend.  It is expected to wander toward Bermuda but then get picked up by the Jet Stream and turn north and northeast. It is not expected to be a threat to the east coast at this point and it may send some weather into the Bahamas but not expected to actually go  there. 

 

My own cruise leaves from NYC Saturday in the middle if the possible Nor'easter to sail to San Juan.. I think we will make it past the storm but it may get uncomfortable.

 

We'll know more by Saturday.

Edited by PelicanBill

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PelicanBill - just in case you didn't check back within the last few hours with your upcoming Roll Call or see the other post about the BA's delayed arrival, not due to the weather/Nor-Easter but ... an onboard medical emergency.  Ship being diverted to Miami, sailing westerly between Bahamas toward MIA - not expected to dock between 5 to 7:30 pm on Saturday. 

 

Link to that BA thread on the NCL forum - 

Meanwhile, we are watching this inverted 95L - a/k/a "Oscar" watch as any further development could affect us next week with our shortened stay on BDA with the Halloween Escape.  Running our Roll Call & fellow CC'ers will be very interested, a little bumpy sailaway this Sunday for us is fine ... but.  

 

Regards & safe travel, bon voyage ! 

 

Henry a/k/a - mking8288

 

 

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Hello everyone and thanks Henry for that update while I was traveling and dealing with that craziness.we boarded at 1am, waiting in our hotel lobby 8 hours and avoiding the packed terminals. I will post more about it on  the NCL board if nobody else has already.

 

so Oscar has thankfully done as I expected. Little westward movement and getting pickup to sweet northeast. Some surf and stormy skies for Bermuda but our sailing path from NYC to Tortola is sunny skies. Only impact is 10’ 10s wave pattern from the east giving us a noticeable roll that some are calling rough seas.LOL they have no idea.  

 

Next 5 days: no more tropical formation expected. Lookup up after last 2 cruises hit so badly by weather!

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Well, I'll see you guys for Hurricane watch 2019 next summer.  Our 2018 cruise had great weather. 

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